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Saturday, 20 March 2021

Boxing Picks 2021- Lawrence Okolie vs Krzysztof Glowacki (March 20th)

I am a big Boxing fan, but there continues to be major problems with the sport and that is the terrible judging that seems to have become a common feature week to week.

Last weekend we saw another poor judging performance in the Juan Francisco Estrada win over Roman Gonzalez- the two cards that split the fighters 115/113 are understandable as there were some swing Rounds that could easily have given either a 7-5 win, but the third score of 117/111 in favour of the Mexican fighter has rightly been ridiculed.

The judge has been suspended and will be asked to explain his scorecard, but that isn't going to make Gonzalez feel better and it is the kind of margin which suggests he had very little chance of winning in that one judges eyes.

Personally I had Chocolatito winning 116/112, and it was clear that Estrada's corner were not convinced with the direction the fight was heading if you take their comments between Rounds at face value. They certainly wouldn't have had their Boxer plenty clear going into the Championship Rounds and it hurst the integrity of the sport when people are not rewarded for their hard work.

I will watch as I have always done, but it does hurt to see judges continue to make a mockery of the sport without facing real sanctions. Too many times the 'B' side is in a position where they have to Knock Out the name leading the bill to earn the right result in their favour, although right now even those fights would seemingly come away as draws.

Something has to be done, but I really don't have the full answers- perhaps those judges who constantly get within a Round of the consensus score should be pushed forward to score the biggest fights, but I think it will need more people within Boxing looking to clean things up before a real impact will be seen.


This weekend we have three cards going on of most interest and they take place in Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The best fight looks to be taking place in the early hours of the morning when Vergil Ortiz Jr takes on fellow Texan Maurice Hooker, but the United Kingdom will also be looking to crown a new World Champion in a card headlined by Lawrence Okolie.

Artur Beterbiev is back after a long lay off too, but he will be looking to send a statement out to the rest of the Light Heavyweight Division before resuming his bid to Unify.


Artur Beterbiev vs Adam Deines
The Number 1 fighter in the Light Heavyweight Division has long rumoured to be Artur Beterbiev, but it was his dismantling of Oleksandr Gvozdyk which confirmed the Russian is the man to beat at the 175 limit.

Unfortunately Beterbiev has not been in the ring in the last seventeen months since beating Gvozdyk and that has partly been down to the Covid-19 pandemic and partly down to injury and not finding an opponent ready to compete.

Even now there won't be too many excited to see Adam Deines lining up across the ring to Artur Beterbiev, but it will be good to get the WBC and IBF World Champion back out there as he looks to shake off some of the ring rust and then look for bigger fights in a pretty stacked Division later in the year.

Most are expecting Beterbiev to come in and rip through Adam Deines and I can't argue with that with little to suggest the German is deserving of his spot at this level. The one step up Deines has taken saw him beaten decisively on the cards by Fanlong Meng who had been the mandatory for Artur Beterbiev before deciding he was not able to travel for a bout.

The 19-1-1 record looks good on paper, but it is hard to read too much into that considering the level of opponent Adam Deines has long been dealing with.

He simply will not have matched up with someone of the calibre of Artur Beterbiev and I think we will learn very quickly about how much Deines is willing to withstand to try and win a World Title. There is no doubting how hard Beterbiev hits and he is someone who can pick his shots and break down what looks like being an overmatched opponent.

Over the last few months we have seen a number of fighters Ranked high up in some of the governing bodies look completely unprepared for the step up to take on World Champions. Some of those have not lasted too long and I do think this is going to be extremely difficult for Adam Deines who can't have found a way to prepare for the kind of onslaught that Artur Beterbiev is likely going to bring to the ring.

It may take a couple of Rounds to warm up for the Russian who has spent plenty of time out of the ring, while he has had some postponements to extend the time away. Artur Beterbiev also had to deal with Covid-19, but this is still the Number 1 fighter in the Light Heavyweight Division and I really don't think Adam Deines will see the second half of the fight.

The layers think the end could come very early, but it might take a couple of Rounds to shift the rust and then I would fully expect Artur Beterbiev to go through the gears and make a statement to the rest of the Division. It would be something for Adam Deines to hear the bell to signal the second half of the fight beginning, but I think Artur Beterbiev will start finding his range in Round Three and Round Four and I expect the finish to come around the Fourth/Fifth Round of this one.


Lawrence Okolie vs Krzysztof Glowacki
There are some big plans for Lawrence Okolie going forward, but much of them depend on whether he can keep putting the wins on the board as he continues fast-tracking his way to the top of the Cruiserweight Division. I have not been a big fan of some of the Okolie style which has led to punch and hug fights, but working under Shane McGuigan is going to benefit a fighter who has little amateur experience and is just 15-0 as a professional as he enters his first World Title fight.

He is going up against the experienced Krzysztof Glowacki who is a former two time WBO World Champion and trying to pick up a title he believes belongs to him.

With only two losses on his resume against Oleksandr Usyk and Maris Briedis you have to respect the Polish fighter and the latter of those losses was a very controversial one in the WBSS. Court appeals didn't go fully in the favour of Glowacki, but it did vacate the WBO Belt and he returns for the first time since losing to Briedis.

However that fight came in June 2019 and it is a long lay off for Glowacki and especially considering Lawrence Okolie will have fought three times since then and has earned some real momentum going into this World Title tilt. This is far from an easy fight for Okolie who won't have faced someone of the level of Glowacki who has beaten Marco Huck, Steve Cunningham and Maxim Vlasov and so is clearly capable of winning fights at the top level.

You have to worry a little about the fact that Huck put Glowacki down and the Polish fighter has been down a couple more times which is a concern going up against a big puncher like Okolie has shown himself to be. Unlike some of the other fighters that the British fighter has faced, I don't think Glowacki allows himself to fall into a punch and hug Decision loss and that should mean this is more action packed than a lot of Lawrence Okolie fights have been.

The feeling is that this fight has come along at the right time for Lawrence Okolie and he can get the better of a game Krzysztof Glowacki with his superior length and power likely to eventually tell. His confidence is something I have noted and I do think Okolie believes it is his time, while the amount of time spent out of the ring for the Polish former Champion could be hard to shake off completely.

Being on the canvass a few times already in his career doesn't bode well and, although Glowacki is plenty experienced and shown his talent at a World level, I think Lawrence Okolie will find a way to wear him down and become the second fighter to stop the Pole.

It would be a surprise if Okolie comes out all guns blazing early, but his confidence may pick up and he can call it a relatively early night by finding some big shots in the second half of this Championship fight to get the referee to step in.


Chris Billam-Smith vs Vasil Ducar
This should have been a British Title tilt for Chris Billam-Smith, but a withdrawal from his opponent means he will be in a tick along fight with better to come in the weeks and months ahead.

A single loss on the record is one that Billam-Smith will want to set right, but he remains on a good path and picking up the Commonwealth Title means his Ranking will be move on up.

Ten wins out of eleven have come by Stoppage and not many have been able to earn their way into the second half of fights against him. The feeling is that he is going up against a durable opponent who has yet to be stopped, but one who has not really fought at Chris Billam-Smith's level.

Vasil Ducar might be stubborn, but Chris Billam-Smith hits hard and early and nine of his wins have come inside six Rounds. I think he will want to get this routine fight out of the way and possibly have that British Title shot against Deion Jumah in the first half of the 2021 calendar year before pushing on to bigger and better things.

To do that, Chris Billam-Smith has to try and avoid injury and make sure he can get straight back in the gym as soon as possible, and it could mean pushing for another early night here.


Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Maurice Hooker
There isn't much more the locals will want to see than an up and coming Texan looking to continue his march upwards in the World Rankings as he takes on a veteran from the same State who is a former World Champion.

Maurice Hooker's World Title came in the 140 pound Division, but a blow out loss to Jose Carlos Ramirez saw him make the decision to move up to 147 and compete with the big names there. A win will certainly give Hooker a chance to do that, but he is coming up against a young and hungry Vergil Ortiz Jr who has won all sixteen fights by Knock Out.

It feels like the matchmaking has been good for Ortiz Jr and stopping Samuel Vargas in his last fight and now taking on a former World Champion will keep the momentum going in what is a loaded Division. I don't think he is ready to take on the absolute elite of the 147 Division, but Vergil Ortiz Jr can surge up the World Rankings by winning this fight and most factors seem in his favour.

There is no doubt that Maurice Hooker will be looking to test him, but I feel standing in front of Ortiz Jr and trying to trade with the younger fighter is not going to end well for Hooker. It is hard to imagine that too much of the mindset has changed for Maurice Hooker who has a tendency to fight fire with fire and against a puncher like Vergil Ortiz Jr I do think it is a matter of time before the veteran is broken down and stopped.

I am sure Vergil Ortiz Jr has targeted a quicker stoppage than the one Jose Carlos Ramirez produced against Maurice Hooker, but I also think the latter is going to be aware of that and try to box clever. We have yet to see an opponent push Ortiz Jr into the Eighth Round or further and I am not sure Maurice Hooker's style will see him get to that point.

He was Knocked Down in the First Round by Ramirez and Hooker will have to be aware of the power that Ortiz Jr carries at all time. I think he will likely try and keep this long, but Vergil Ortiz Jr can start breaking him down around the Fourth or Fifth Round and I think the finish will come pretty soon after as Maurice Hooker tries to trade to push back his younger opponent.

Vergil Ortiz Jr does look a legitimate top quality operator in the making who is pushing towards a big fight with Terence Crawford and I think he can get a few more eyes on him after a dominating win. Four of the last five fighters faced by Ortiz Jr have gotten into the Fifth Round before the finish comes and I think that may be the case here as the young, exciting fighter ends this crossroads fight in the middle Rounds.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 4-6 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chris Billam-Smith to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Vergil Ortiz Jr to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 6-11, - 3.58 Units (32 Units Staked, - 11.18% Yield)

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