The same will happen for the ATP players remaining in the draw on Tuesday in the build towards the Finals that are set for this weekend as the final hard court event for the next several months is completed. Both Tours will quickly move onto clay court tennis events from early April with the run right through to the French Open at the end of May, but it will be a few weeks until the players are playing at the same event again.
It has been an up and down few days for the Tennis Picks, but I have been left frustrated with some of the inches that have gone against me on Day 6.
Both Elise Mertens and Karen Khachanov failed to hit despite looking like the stronger players on the day- Merten won the match with her two sets coming by the same 6/2 score, but dropping the middle set 0/6 ended that selection.
The latter had his chances to win his match against Jannik Sinner in the second set, but Khachanov played a really poor tie-breaker and that eventually caught up with him in a close defeat. Swing those two matches the other way and it would have been a strong day, but it is the way it goes sometimes and the one thing I can say is that I am happy with the methods that identified both matches as potential winners.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: This is remarkably the fourth tournament in a row where Andrey Rublev and Marton Fucsovics are set to meet and it is Rublev who has found the win in the previous two with one of the matches resulting in a walkover in his favour too.
The matches have been competitive at times, but Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the numbers breakdown and it is only missing out on some key break point chances that made the first of those two matches much closer on the scoreboard than the second.
Andrey Rublev has won 72% of the points played behind his serve in those two matches that have been completed against Marton Fucsovics over the last month and that is compared to the 58% mark that the Hungarian has. Despite that mark, Fucsovics has held 81% of his service games played as he has weathered the storm of the break points being faced, but I expect another match where it is Andrey Rublev who has the better of the opportunities.
The Russian has been serving really well and he is adept at playing on the slower surfaces which should make him pretty comfortable on the Miami courts too. He crushed Tennys Sandgren in the Second Round, while Marton Fucsovics had a much tougher match and was a little fortunate to get past Thanasi Kokkinakis.
I really like the way Marton Fucsovics has played this season, but his numbers have taken a significant dent when going up against the top 20 Ranked opponents he has faced. I think that is going to be the case in this Third Round match and Andrey Rublev is returning well enough to cover this handicap.
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: This Third Round match involves two players who have only needed to win a single match to reach this stage of the Miami Masters.
One of the key differences between Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz is that the former has to spend over three hours on the court to earn his victory, while Hurkacz was out for a little over an hour and a half in a more route win. Denis Shapovalov is likely going to blame himself for having spent as much time on the court as he failed to take the break point chances when they came up, but I am not sure it should be a factor that hinders him too much considering there has been a break in days between matches.
At the Australian Open Denis Shapovalov was able to win a match that was five minutes from ticking into a four hour scrap, but he did win his next match relatively comfortably. That should encourage the fact that Shapovalov is able to bring his best to the court on Monday in this Third Round match and he is going to need to serve well to get on top of his Polish opponent.
Hubert Hurkacz has a decent 9-5 record on the hard courts in 2021, but he is just 3-5 when it comes to playing top 100 Ranked opponents. He has struggled in the return aspect of his game in those matches, while he has held less than 80% of the service games played on the surface.
There is a weakness to the Denis Shapovalov return game which is a major concern for his development in the immediate future. It will likely mean it is difficult for the Canadian to go deep in the big tournaments being played, but his aggressive style was key to beating Hubert Hurkacz in Dubai and I think that is going to be the game plan for Shapovalov in this match too.
The slower hard courts should aid Shapovalov somewhat as well and I like the Canadian's chances of earning the majority of the break points in this match which should give him the room to cover the handicap set.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a very difficult opening to the season for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who improved to 4-3 on the hard courts with his win in the Second Round. The worrying part of that record is that only two of those matches have been played against top 100 World Ranked opponents and Schwartzman will likely be looking forward to getting back on the clay courts in the weeks ahead.
Despite all of my concerns, I do think this is a hard court that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman should enjoy, while the match up with Adrian Mannarino may be one that suits him.
The Frenchman is a solid player and one that can be tough to beat when he is finding his best tennis, but Adrian Mannarino is only 5-6 on the hard courts. The serve has always been pretty average and Mannarino is likely going to be tested by the returning ability that Schwartzman has, but I think he will also have success on the return and that is where this spread could be a wide one.
Breaks of serve could come pretty frequently, but that also does mean there is every chance that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman could win the match by putting at least one set on the board with a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino. He definitely has the edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the hard courts over the last fifteen months and over the last two months Schwartzman has broken in 40% of return games played compared with Mannarino's 23% mark.
There is only a very slight difference in percentage of points won behind serve and that is where the returning of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman may just see him come out on top in this match.
I imagine this could be a match that goes pretty long when you think of the kind of rallies that may develop with very few cheap points being won, but Schwartzman may get the better enough of those to get into a position to cover the handicap in this one. The returning differences gives Schwartzman the edge and I think he will earn his place in the Fourth Round with a decent win behind him.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Masters Update: 22-16, + 6.32 Units (76 Units Staked, + 8.32% Yield)
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