Before that let me put a few thoughts down about the Premier League fixtures to be played from Friday to Monday as we fast approach a break in play with the March internationals still scheduled to be played later this month.
Newcastle United v Aston Villa Pick: The Premier League weekend opens up on Friday evening and both Newcastle United and Aston Villa will be looking for the maximum points to move towards their ambitions for the season. The home team may have earned a point last weekend, but Fulham's win at Liverpool has closed the gap between Newcastle United and the relegation zone and Steve Bruce has to be feeling the pressure.
Some suggested a defeat at The Hawthorns last weekend would have cost Bruce his job, but the point earned has given him a little more time.
Pressure doesn't disappear though and a defeat on Friday could leave Newcastle United vulnerable to falling into the bottom three although that would need Brighton and Fulham to earn unexpected results later this weekend. Steve Bruce will be under immense pressure if Newcastle United do lose though and being without key attacking players makes it very difficult to believe in them.
There is some talent still here, but finding the balance between attack and defence has been difficult for Newcastle United.
Now they have to face an Aston Villa team who have found a way to outperform the underlying statistics and pick up clean sheets despite the huge chances they are giving up. At least in this game they could be playing a team short of attacking threat, although Aston Villa have struggled to create a lot themselves without Jack Grealish in the line up.
The hope is that the England international will be ready to go this week, but even then Aston Villa be playing at a tough ground for them. In recent years Aston Villa have not won in 12 visits to St James' Park and this feels like it will be another close game with goals lacking when these teams have faced each other.
The last 10 between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and the recent struggles of both teams in the final third could see that trend move at least one more game. Inconsistent performances have blighted both over the last several weeks, but the injuries to the Newcastle United key attacking players and Aston Villa's run of five goals in 8 League games should add up to another low-scoring fixture.
Leeds United v Chelsea Pick: The early Saturday offering from the Premier League should be an interesting tactical battle between two managers who are convinced by the way they would like their football to be played.
Both Marcelo Bielsa and Thomas Tuchel have clear identities and both Leeds United and Chelsea have responded to their managers respectively. The better players are in the visitor's dressing room though and that should give Thomas Tuchel a real chance to set his Chelsea team up in a manner to expose the Leeds United spaces that have been left behind for much of the season.
No one will criticise the attacking intent of the Leeds United play, but it does leave them vulnerable to those teams with the quality that Chelsea will bring to the field. There have also been signs of frustration from Leeds United in front of goal and they have failed to hit the net in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games.
Playing on this Elland Road surface is not ideal for either club, but that can't be an excuse for either team either. Chelsea's recent form is certainly going to give them a more confident approach to this fixture, but the lack of goals away from Stamford Bridge is a concern.
They should have the chances to at least change the narrative on that front at Elland Road considering the manner in which Leeds United approach things. I also think set pieces continue to be a big problem for Leeds United to deal with and Chelsea have scored plenty of goals from corners and free kicks this season which suggests they can expose the vulnerabilities Leeds United have shown.
Leeds United should test this Chelsea team even though Tuchel has made them a little more balanced on that side of the field. However you do have to believe that Chelsea will prove to be a little too strong and an early goal could set them up to score at least twice for the first time away from home since early February when they managed to hit that mark in Yorkshire at Sheffield United.
The home team will continue to press, but Chelsea can punish them with the pace and quality they have in the final third. The feeling is that the visitors will earn the three points in a relatively high-scoring game as Chelsea look to put a stamp on one of the top four places and ensure a return to the Champions League next season.
Crystal Palace v West Brom Pick: All of the pressure has shifted to West Brom who would have seen the improvements made by relegation rivals Fulham that has left them 8 points from safety. The goalless draw with Newcastle United last weekend will have really hurt Sam Allardyce, although West Brom deserved a lot more from the fixture.
Ultimately they have looked short of the quality in the final third that would have been needed to avoid relegation and it would be a huge surprise if West Brom managed to do that now. This is almost the last chance saloon for them with another failure to secure a win likely only delaying the inevitable.
However a win might give West Brom the confidence to take into the April and May schedule with a chance to really work on Sam Allardyce's methods. The break in play might have come too late to really make a difference and West Brom are facing a Crystal Palace team who have worked hard for back to back clean sheets at Selhurst Park.
Like Sam Allardyce, Roy Hodgson will have spent a week working on the shape of this Crystal Palace team from a defensive standpoint to make sure they keep the points ticking over. Even with a long injury list Crystal Palace have managed to do that, although the lack of recent goals has to be a concern.
Crystal Palace will be given a huge boost by a returning Wilfred Zaha and Christian Benteke has offered a new threat for them having struggled for much of the last eighteen months. The return of Zaha in particular should mean Crystal Palace carry more of an attacking threat in this one and a moment of magic is more likely to come from the home team as they move a step closer to securing Premier League Football for another season.
There are enough talented players in the final third who can do that for Crystal Palace when you add the likes of Andros Townsend and Eberechi Eze to Zaha and Benteke and I think the home team may edge to the full points. The first goal will be crucial with goals drying up in the Premier League over the last couple of weeks, but The Eagles can get their noses in front here and that may be enough to secure a vital three points.
Everton v Burnley Pick: Performing at home has been difficult for most teams in the Premier League this season as the continued absence of fans affects clubs, but it is still a strange trend.
Everton are another who have seemingly been much more effective away from home, but an improvement at Goodison Park could see the team potentially scrap their way into the top four. A defeat at Chelsea is a setback for the club as they chase a surprising spot in the Champions League, but Everton are only 4 points off those places and have a game in hand over the teams above them.
All of that will mean nothing if they can't get back to winning ways on Saturday when they host a Burnley team who have been hard to beat in recent weeks. Everton did have 3 clean sheets in a row in the Premier League before losing at Stamford Bridge and the feeling is they can hold Burnley at arm's length in this one which should give them the edge.
For all the battling qualities Burnley have displayed, they have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games. However the exceptions have both resulted in victories which includes a 0-1 win at Anfield and that has to be respected.
Burnley are simply not creating a lot of chances and defensively there have been gaps teams have exploited. For one reason or another, poor finishing has cost some against Burnley and Arsenal were guilty of that last weekend.
Everton have looked a little more certain about their ability to turn chances into goals of late though and they have a very strong recent record against Burnley. The Toffees have won 5 of the last 6 at home against Burnley and I think they can do that here, although Everton may have to ride out some difficult moments if they are not able to put this opponent away.
We saw that in narrow wins over Southampton and West Brom recently, but Everton have shown they can win those kind of games and can do the same against Burnley.
Fulham v Manchester City Pick: There will be plenty of people lined up ready to congratulate Scott Parker in the manner his Fulham team have given themselves a chance to avoid the drop, but the manager himself won't be satisfied until it is confirmed that Premier League Football will remain at Craven Cottage for another season.
After a slow start to the season, Fulham are motoring now and 3 wins in their last 7 Premier League games has given them a real opportunity.
The win last weekend at Anfield was an upset even though Liverpool made plenty of changes to their first eleven and any positive result on Saturday will drag Fulham out of the bottom three for twenty-four hours at the least.
Performances have improved and Fulham have looked a little stronger on both ends of the field over the last couple of months. Scott Parker has found the right formula to get the best out of his team and make them hard to beat, but turning some draws into wins has given Fulham a huge amount of momentum which they would look to carry through the March international break.
Upsetting the odds again will be on the minds of the players, but Manchester City are a different proposition to an injury hit Liverpool team. Playing at Craven Cottage has been a little more difficult for Fulham who have lacked for goals here and have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 League games at home, and they have been beaten in 5 of their last 7 here in all competitions.
Manchester City might have seen their long winning run ended at the hands of rivals Manchester United last Sunday, but they are back to winning ways having crushed Southampton on Wednesday. They have won 12 straight away games in all competitions and Manchester City are a team who have created chances and scored plenty of goals on their travels, while 10 of those 12 wins have come by two or more goal margins.
They have won their last 3 fixtures at Craven Cottage and the attacking quality is likely going to make all the difference for them.
Over the last couple of weeks the defensive strength Manchester City have been displaying has not looked as impregnable as it had been before. Fulham may cause some problems with the pace they have in forward areas, but I do feel Manchester City will control the play and eventually break down this tough Fulham team in a relatively comfortable win when all is said and done.
Southampton v Brighton Pick: The early Sunday kick off in the Premier League is a big game on the south coast as Southampton get set to entertain Brighton.
A win at Sheffield United last weekend has at least given Southampton some breathing room to the bottom three, but there is no doubt they still need to put some more points on the board to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Beating Brighton would really put Southampton on the brink of securing their top flight status and the performances over the last week have given the group some confidence.
Ralph Hasenhuttl was able to rotate his squad for the defeat at Manchester City, but he would have also kept some key players fresh and ready to go for this Premier League fixture.
Over the last couple of weeks Southampton have been creating chances, but it is important to have some of their key defenders back which will at least make the system feel like it has a solid base. They did concede five at Manchester City, but before that Southampton earned the clean sheet at Sheffield United and only conceded a single goal to Everton and I do think they are on the right road.
Keeping Brighton at bay will not be easy and you do have to expect that all the big chances being created by The Seagulls will eventually be rewarded with some big results. This is a team who have looked comfortable getting forward and they have been defending pretty well even if their opponents have been clinical in the final third which has resulted in more goals being conceded than you would imagine.
At some point you just have to accept that it is the way the season is going for Brighton and they may struggle for a result at St Mary's.
The last 3 between them at this ground have all ended in draws, but the feeling is that Southampton may just hold the edge in this fixture. They have shown a little more power in the final third and even without Danny Ings Southampton may do enough to secure the three points and leave Brighton in a very difficult spot in the Division.
Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: Injuries have hurt both Leicester City and Sheffield United over the last few weeks and it has seen the two clubs fail to put together the kind of positive results that they would have liked.
While the visitors are hurting defensively, Leicester City are missing creative, attacking talents like James Maddison and Harvey Barnes and it has just seen them struggle in front of goal. Last weekend they needed a huge mistake from the Brighton goalkeeper to earn the victory at the Amex Stadium, but prior to that Leicester City have been struggling.
Even in the win at Brighton they did struggle to create a lot of chances and you do wonder if they can expose the issues Sheffield United have been having at the back. The Blades have given up some big chances, but Jamie Vardy has not been at his best and Leicester City are going to have to dig deep to earn the points to keep their top four ambitions on track.
One benefit for Leicester City is that they are facing a Sheffield United team who have struggled to create chances and the lack of goals has proven to be costly for the visitors. With Jonny Evans expected back, Brendan Rodgers may be looking for The Foxes to set up a secure foundation with the expectation that his team can do just enough to find the goals to earn the three points.
Leicester City have scored more than two goals in just 1 of their last 12 games in all competitions while Sheffield United have not scored in 4 of their last 5 fixtures. The feeling is that a low-scoring home win is most likely going to be the outcome of this one as Leicester City maintain their spot in the top four.
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur were playing in the Europa League on Thursday, but at least the latter were playing in North London rather than needing to travel back from the continent like Arsenal had to.
The situation was reversed earlier this season when Tottenham Hotspur hosted the North London derby and it didn't stop them winning the game 2-0. Jose Mourinho was quick to point that out to the press when he was asked whether his Tottenham Hotspur team had an advantage this weekend.
Both teams won comfortably on Thursday and look in a good position to make the Europa League Quarter Final so all focus can turn to this important Premier League game. It is still such a shame that these fixtures have to be played in an era where the fans have yet to return to the ground and it has sometimes meant the games have lacked the intensity that we would otherwise have.
Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur cannot allow that to happen if they are to achieve their domestic aims and I do think two strong teams will be selected. Mikel Arteta did rest some players for the League game at Burnley which came between Europa League ties, but the win at Olympiacos and the margin of victory has meant the Spaniard can play any team he likes.
Jose Mourinho will be hoping Harry Kane hasn't picked up a serious knock having come off with a knee issue against Dinamo Zagreb, and his Tottenham Hotspur team have been playing with some confidence. In recent games they have been creating plenty of chances and defensively they have largely managed games which should mean Tottenham Hotspur have every chance to win a first League game at Arsenal since November 2010.
They would have ended that run if they had held onto their 0-2 lead at the Emirates Stadium last season and Arsenal remain a team who have been a little inconsistent in the final third. The Gunners continue to cause more problems for themselves defensively than they need to and I do think Tottenham Hotspur have the players to hurt them.
This could be a fun North London derby, but my feeling is that Tottenham Hotspur may be the stronger team. Arsenal are dangerous and they have some talented players that can cause problems for any team they face, but Tottenham Hotspur may have the edge overall and I think they can find a way to earn the three points.
Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: If this match had been played a month ago Manchester United would have been considerable favourites to win the fixture and the evidence for that is the price they were to beat West Ham United in the FA Cup Fifth Round in February.
Since then the form has become inconsistent and the injuries in the front line means Manchester United are going to have to work very hard to break down this West Ham United team. The visitors have been defending really effectively in recent weeks and they were very unfortunate to lose at Manchester City a couple of weeks ago, while David Moyes seems to have everyone on the same page.
He will be looking to frustrate Manchester United and Moyes should feel confident in his team to do that if the home team are without Anthony Martial, Edinson Cavani and possibly Marcus Rashford. That leaves Manchester United short of considerable talent and there is a big drop to the next level with Daniel James, Mason Greenwood and possibly Amad Diallo having to occupy the front three places.
West Ham United have contained better attacking line ups than that and this is a team who are playing with a lot of belief. Even Jesse Lingard has come into the squad and produced some of his better football, but his absence this weekend will mean an opportunity for someone else to pick up the baton.
The Hammers are creating chances and they offer a real threat from set pieces which is something that has been something of an Achilles heel for Manchester United all season. They were undone by another corner on Thursday evening and I think there will be plenty backing West Ham United to earn the upset on Sunday evening and really put the cat amongst the pigeons when it comes to the top four race.
I have to say that Manchester United have largely been in control defensively in recent games though and it may need set pieces to undo them. If they can restrict the opportunity for West Ham United to put balls into the box they should be able to largely deal with this attacking line up which has pace and skill, but can be a little hit and miss.
Goals may be at a premium with the two defences taking to the field and the first goal is likely going to be vital. I am really not sure which way that will go though and instead think this may be a low-scoring game on Sunday evening.
The last 2 between these clubs at Old Trafford have both finished with fewer than three goals shared out and this may be the third match to do that in succession.
Wolves v Liverpool Pick: Monday Night Football comes from Molineux and that may actually be music to the ears of Liverpool fans considering the awful form they have displayed at home. They may have lost 6 straight at Anfield, but Liverpool have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and have also beaten Leipzig on a neutral field twice so the players won't be lacking for too much confidence.
They have a strong record against Wolves and they have won their last 4 Premier League games at Molinuex.
Not many would have imagined the 4-0 win over Wolves at Anfield in early December would have been followed by just one more League win at home going through to the end of March, but Liverpool's away form has to be respected. They have been creating plenty of chances in those fixtures on their travels and Liverpool have players who can hurt Wolves here.
Wolves have been inconsistent for months and ever since losing Raul Jimenez they have been even harder to get a good read on. They will dominate the chances and come away with a draw like they did at Aston Villa, but on another day they will be hammered and look terrible at the back and somehow come away with a victory as they did against Leeds United.
They are unbeaten in 3 at home and have won 2 of those games, but both Arsenal and Leeds United will believe they deserved a lot more. Liverpool's recent away performances suggest they can can get more and they may have too much for Wolves in the final third as they look for the three points to at least reignite their challenge for a top four finish.
This should be close, but Liverpool should have the better of the chances and that should see them come away with the points. I don't imagine a really high-scoring game, but Liverpool should create the better chances and just give themselves a shot in the arm when it comes to the Champions League race in the English top flight.
MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Everton
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City & Under 3.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals
Liverpool & Under 5 Goals
Fantasy Football GameWeek 28
This season has been one of the more inconsistent Premier League seasons we have seen in a long time with home advantage so hit and miss and with strange results coming out every week.
That is something we have all had to adjust to, but even then it can be very difficult to accept some of the 'luck' factors and especially when they seem to be going against you each passing week. I have certainly decided that the gut feeling has to overrule the head if I am going to earn my spot in the top 100K after the latest decision that seems to have gone against me.
I am not even going to mention Luke Shaw's huge haul that I left on the bench, that is something I would have done in most situations like the one Manchester United faced but it sums up the manner in which you can't really predict outcomes of any fixture with genuine confidence.
What has bothered me is my transfer decision making- last week I identified James Ward-Prowse as a potential midfield option, but ended up coming down in favour of Mason Mount.
The 'luck' I spoke about saw Danny Ings pick up an injury and JWP has not only taken advantage of scoring one Penalty, but scored another one in his Double GameWeek and also picked up an assist. Unsurprisingly to anyone who has been reading this thread, Mount didn't even start for Chelsea and it proved to be a decision that cost 20 points.
I've been on the wrong side of too many of these, while I am also getting a little fed up of my bench letting me down. And then teams like Aston Villa continue to confound the XG by picking up clean sheets despite teams racking up huge Expected Goal numbers against them, but insist on missing point blank sitters.
It all adds up and it has left me in a disappointing position, but I should activate the Wild Card soon and look to go with more gut feeling than anything else.
Next week I am going to be using my Free Hit so I should use the Free Transfer we all get in each week as I won't be able to carry it beyond GW29 anyway. Marcus Rashford is the player most likely that I will move out of my squad and that is because he is set to miss out this week.
The way the FPL game has me feeling this season makes me believe that either I will take out Rashford and he will surprisingly start and bang in a hat-trick on Sunday, or I will remove him and my Bench option will score a single point. Once those thoughts get in your head you can make rash decisions, but I do think it is the right play to remove the Manchester United player and look for other options.
It feels like it could be a one week rental for whoever I bring in and so there are plenty of options open to me, although the focus has to be on those who could be a differential. The best teams look to be Everton, Leicester City and Chelsea who look the most likely teams to score at least twice this week, but I will be thinking about this until the Friday afternoon deadline.
Kai Havertz had a big game against Everton, but I have the aforementioned Mason Mount, while Gylfi Sigurdsson was appealing if not suffering with a slight knock. The injuries to the attacking midfielders at Leicester City maybe raises the appeal of someone like Youri Tielemans, while Gareth Bale and Mason Greenwood could be decent differentials.
It is something that I will be considering while I am very tempted with putting the armband on Mount against the attack minded Leeds United. That is another aspect I am considering because I need to do without a 'single pointer' as Captain so Harry Kane and possibly the midfielder I bring in are other choices to lead the team. Raheem Sterling was rested in midweek, but Fulham have defended pretty well of late which reduces some of the appeal there.
Next week the options will be much clearer with four Premier League games scheduled to be played and with the Free Hit Chip in the pocket.
Good luck with your plays this week.
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