Day 8 has proved to be a very positive day for the Tennis Picks, but this is not going to be a very long thread for Day 9 when the remaining WTA Quarter Final matches and two of the four ATP Quarter Finals are set to be played.
I am going to update the Miami Masters totals on Wednesday and I will add any selections from the two ATP Quarter Finals at that time.
However I do like the look of both WTA Quarter Final matches that remain and you can read my thoughts on them below.
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Both of these players are going to be pretty happy with having a day of rest between tough Fourth Round wins and this Quarter Final. In recent years you would have expected Bianca Andreescu to be a successful hard court player and certainly more than Sara Sorribes Tormo, but injury has hurt the former ever since she won the US Open in 2019 and that meant missing the entirety of the 2020 season.
After such a lay off you have to expect the Canadian is going to have some ups and downs as she looks to return to the top of the WTA Tour, but the wins will have done Bianca Andreescu the world of good this past week. She has shown she can dig deep and battle through matches and the come from behind win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round is especially impressive when you think of how well Muguruza has played to open 2021.
Beating a couple of players Ranked inside the top 32 is important for the confidence of Andreescu who has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts in her return. The serve has been working well for Andreescu this week, but I do think this is a player capable of a lot more on the return than she has shown so far having won just 41% of return points played in her three wins on her way through to the Quarter Final.
Her overall returning numbers in 2021 has seen Bianca Andreescu win much closer to 44% of the return points played and that will offer encouragement when she takes on this surprising Quarter Finalist in the form of Sara Sorribes Tormo.
There has been very little from the Spaniard to think she has been capable of a run like this on the hard courts if you look at her record and deeper numbers on the surface in recent seasons. However, Sara Sorribes Tormo won a hard court title in Mexico earlier this month and backed that up by reaching the Semi Final in another tournament played in Monterrey before this surprising march through the draw.
Sara Sorribes Tormo has had four tough matches in Miami and each of those have been won in three sets which means she has spent a considerable amount of time on the court. Her serve has been a weakness, but Sorribes Tormo has enjoyed the slower conditions having won more than 50% of return points played in the tournament which has maintained some stunning return numbers on the hard courts in 2021.
She has won 49% of return points played in her eighteen hard court matches in 2021, but that is considerably higher than her performances in recent seasons and her overall career mark of 38% return points won on the surface. Confidence has to be high, but it is difficult to believe Sorribes Tormo can maintain that level through the remainder of the season and I think Bianca Andreescu is serving well enough to control the match.
I expect Bianca Andreescu to put Sara Sorribes Tormo under pressure considering the relative weakness of the Spaniard's serve and I think the former US Open Champion reaches her first big Semi Final since the success at Flushing Meadows since September 2019.
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Maria Sakkari: There is every chance that Naomi Osaka could end this week as the World Number 1 on the WTA Tour, but I don't think there are too many fans who believe that anyone else is deserving of that position regardless of the World Rankings. The Australian Open came through a difficult test against Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round and Naomi Osaka is yet to taste defeat on the hard courts in 2021, although the next three or four months figure to be more testing once the Tour moves onto the clay and grass court tournaments.
That is something Osaka will need to deal with in the weeks ahead, but the focus has to be on picking up the first 'Masters' event of the season and underlining her position as the favourite when we get around to the US Open.
Naomi Osaka goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Quarter Final and the latter has shown a real improvement on the Tour over the last couple of seasons, although perhaps still not quite consistent enough to challenge the very best players. There is no doubt that Sakkari can be very dangerous on her day, and there is an improvement in her returning numbers which have helped her go much deeper into tournaments.
The improvement is going to be tested to the maximum by Naomi Osaka who has been dominant behind the serve on the hard courts and who has begun to look after the second serve even more than she had previously. She was already dangerous behind her serve, but adding protection to the second serve means it is very difficult for opponents to get their teeth in their return games and I expect the same will be the case for Maria Sakkari.
In their previous four matches, Sakkari has struggled to return serve, although she is only 1-2 in the head to head with Naomi Osaka on the hard courts. She has won a set in each of those matches, although Maria Sakkari has only won 34% of return points played against Naomi Osaka on the hard courts and that leaves her own serve vulnerable to the pressures that come with the scoreboard and the opponent being able to rush through their own service games.
What makes Maria Sakkari dangerous is that she has a decent serve and she can make it difficult for opponent's to break that weapon. She has some solid numbers against Naomi Osaka and her overall service numbers in 2021 have been strong too, but the pressure points is where the Australian Open Champion can begin to exert her control of this match.
If Maria Sakkari can get a high percentage of first serves in play she will make this a close match, but her second serve could be attacked by someone like Naomi Osaka who has won 47% of return points played on the hard courts in 2021. Naomi Osaka has not always found it easy to attack the Sakkari serve, but she has found a way to produce at the big moments which has seen the Japanese player break at least four times against Sakkari in two of their three hard court matches.
I think that is the way this match will go and I can see Naomi Osaka using her serve to start piling the pressure on Maria Sakkari to keep up on the scoreboard and that could see the latter snap. I am glad to see Sakkari is improving her overall tennis, but Naomi Osaka may still be operating at a level where she can win this Quarter Final and cover what looks to be a big handicap on paper.
MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Masters Update: 31-22, + 11 Units (106 Units Staked, + 10.38% Yield)
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