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Saturday, 27 March 2021

Boxing Picks 2021- Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte II (March 27th)

I don't really like revisionist history or those who use outcome bias to determine how they feel about something... Instead I think it is only right to be honest about what you felt about something and admit when you have got things wrong.

Early in his career I saw Lawrence Okolie as an awkward fighter who is very big for the Cruiserweight Division, but one who had a tendency to fight very cautiously which led to some boring grab and hug fights when he has stepped up.

In saying that I did think he was going to be good enough to stop Krzysztof Glowacki, although I needed one more Round to bring home a winning Pick.

Regardless of that, I did think Lawrence Okolie produced a career best performance in completely befuddling a former World Champion and doing it in a very appealing style. Shane McGuigan should be given some credit for the work he is doing with the new World Champion, but I have to also credit Okolie for implementing the game plan to the highest level and I am now looking forward to seeing him back out there if he can build on this performance.

Lawrence Okolie unsurprisingly called out the other World Champions as he looks to Unify the Division and has admitted he is looking to go up to the newly formed Bridgerweight Division before ultimately landing with the Heavyweights where he also believes he can make his mark. Winning a World Title is clearly a very big personal achievement for Okolie, but I think it is also important that he would have gained some favourable feedback on the type of performance he put in to win that Title and it is going to lead to more willing to sit down and watch him when he is back out there.

No matter what people say, it is very important to be appealing to watch as much as it is to be a quality Boxer and Lawrence Okolie might be ticking both boxes going forward which will be a surprise to many, including myself. The talent was not really questioned, but the style had been and I hope he can push on an look to impose himself going forward in the manner he did to blow out Glowacki.


Artur Beterbiev was also back last weekend, although Adam Dienes will have left that fight with his stock higher than it was going into it. Shaking off the ring rust is important for Beterbiev who is looking to take on the other Light Heavyweight Champions later this year and potentially become the leading name to take on Canelo Alvarez in 2022 assuming the Mexican superstar Unifies the Super Middleweight Division in the remainder of this calendar year.

We also saw Vergil Ortiz Jr continue his rampage up the Welterweight Rankings with a win over former World Champion Maurice Hooker in Seven tough Rounds last weekend. The young man looks like a star in the making and doesn't want to be slowed down as he called out the very best names in the 147 pound Division for a bout later this year. I like the style, although Ortiz Jr looks like he is still short of the likes of Errol Spence Jr or Terence Crawford and another couple of fights at the level between Hooker and the elite of the Division could stand Vergil Ortiz Jr in good stead going forward.


A card that was scheduled to be showcased earlier this month has come around on Saturday 27th March and it is headlined by Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin who get set for a big rematch from a stunning upset seen at Fight Camp last August.

The Heavyweight Division is currently on hold as we look to see whether the two Champions Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua can agree a date for their first bout and that means the contenders are still waiting to see what they will do while waiting for a World Title bid.

Both Povetkin and Whyte are amongst the leading names looking to challenge for full World Title honours going forward, but this is a big rematch first. The WBC Title shot is unlikely to come before 2022, but the winner will have an Interim World Title Belt to carry around and it is a huge fight for both with the losing Boxer struggling where to go next.

A win for Whyte could set up the trilogy if Fury-Joshua are locked down for two fights, but it is a big night for the British Heavyweight who was stunned in the first fight several months ago.

There are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard in Gibraltar, while Queensberry have scheduled a couple of cards for Friday and Saturday as they showcase some of the talent they have under their promotional banner.

However, most eyes will be on the big fight in Gibraltar and especially after the fireworks seen the first time around.


Willy Hutchinson vs Lennox Clarke
The vacant British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Titles are on the line when Willy Hutchinson and Lennox Clarke meet in the main event of the Queensbury card coming live from London on Saturday evening.

The two Belts were fought for by Lennox Clarke in his last bout seventeen months ago, but he was on the wrong side of a Split Decision against Lerrone Richards. It was a close fight between two unbeaten fighters on the night, but Richards got the nod and has moved ahead without the Titles which gives Clarke the second straight opportunity to pick them up.

Once again Lennox Clarke will be in with an unbeaten fighter, although the man from the Midlands should still be confident with only the sole loss on his record. He is talking a good game in the build up to this Title bout, but it does have to be noted that Lennox Clarke has not really been in with too many high level opponents and his overall record may be a little padded.

He has certainly not been in the ring with too many like Willy Hutchinson, the unbeaten Scotsman who has looked very comfortable on his move up the Rankings. This is only the fourteenth fight that 'Braveheart' will have had as a professional, but big things are expected of him and so far he has met every challenger brilliantly.

No one will doubt that this is the toughest fight that Hutchinson will have had in the pro ranks, but he is plenty confident and hits pretty hard and that makes him dangerous. A decent amateur pedigree suggests the skills are strong too and I do think Willy Hutchinson is someone who can push on towards World Titles going forward.

I don't think Hutchinson is going to need to go looking for Lennox Clarke in this Title bout and I think we could be rewarded with a decent scrap. My issue for Clarke is that I am not sure he has the power to stand and trade with Willy Hutchinson through the entirety of the Twelve Rounds scheduled and the Scot can begin to break him down.

While we have yet to see Willy Hutchinson in with someone of Lennox Clarke's level and standing, I do think the former is above this level and will show that here. He has power and the skills and I think Hutchinson will be able to wear down Clarke who may find this is an opponent even better than the last unbeaten fighter he faced.

Being out of the ring for almost eighteen months is not ideal preparation for Lennox Clarke and I like Willy Hutchinson to keep pushing up the World Rankings with a big stoppage win.


Erik Pfeifer vs Nick Webb
A number of Heavyweight fights are scheduled on the undercard of the Alexander Povetkin-Dillian Whyte rematch this weekend and this is set to be a Ten Rounder.

Realistically I would be very surprised if we need the final bell when Erik Pfeifer and Nick Webb meet in the ring and anything less than a win for the former would likely make it very difficult to build on the unbeaten start to life in the pro ranks. Erik Pfeifer has a decent amateur record, but at 34 years old he can't afford a setback at this stage of his career and he is not exactly going up against one of the elite of the blue ribbon Division.

The German may have been a familiar name to British fight fans if he had been given the opportunity to fight Daniel Dubois last summer and since then Erik Pfeifer has signed on with Dillian Whyte. That suggests this is nothing more than a showcase fight against Nick Webb who has been stopped twice before in his career and not against elite competition either.

I am not sure Erik Pfeifer will be an elite Heavyweight, but he has a decent amateur career which suggests he will be better than Dave Allen and Kamil Sokolowski who both needed fewer than Five Rounds to stop Nick Webb.

The latter has put three wins on the board since the last of those defeats and won the Golden Robe at Ultimate Boxxer 6 in December 2019, but Nick Webb has not been in the ring since then. That is less time out of the ring than Erik Pfeifer, but I think his level has been found out and I do think Pfeifer will be able to take advantage of what has been a pretty short gas tank Webb has displayed previously.

It could be fun early as both let their hands go, but I think Erik Pfeifer can ride out any storm he faces and stop Nick Webb in the first half of this one. Dillian Whyte has signed the Heavyweight to fast track him up the Rankings and this will be a good chance for Pfeifer to show the watching public what he is about in a solid Division.


Chris Kongo vs Michael McKinson
Two unbeaten British Welterweights believe they have been overlooked by their peers both domestically and abroad, but Chris Kongo and Michael McKinson have an opportunity they can't afford to miss on Saturday evening.

It doesn't matter that both believe they should be operating at a much higher level and with a bigger profile. Boxing is a sport where you have to take your chances when they pop up and being on a big rematch undercard gives Kongo and McKinson a solid opportunity to try and steal the show and then move into a position where they can challenge the big names around the 147 pound Division.

Experience is very much in favour of Michael McKinson who is 19-0, but there is a concern about his power. Only two of those wins have been by stoppage, although McKinson has Knocked Down the last two opponents he has faced before winning by Decision. He is also a southpaw which can be very awkward to face and McKinson is obviously quite happy to put his Boxing together and pile up the Rounds.

I expect that will be the game plan in this big fight for McKinson who has not really had the stand out, eye catching win on the resume. However, Michael McKinson has won his last five fights against opponents who have lost a combined four times and I expect he will look to make life awkward for his opponent by moving and popping as much as he can.

The problem is the lack of power and I do think Chris Kongo will be willing to walk through what he has in front of him to land the big shots of his own. He has shown he has plenty of pop in the punches and Chris Kongo has found the stoppage in seven of his wins while building up the 12-0 record as a professional.

He did really impress in stopping Luther Clay during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August and I think that power edge is going to be critical in a fight where Kongo may drop some of the early Rounds as he gets to grip with where he expects the southpaw to be.

I do think McKinson has the skills to win this fight on the cards, but I believe the power will be telling when all is said and done and that favours Chris Kongo. The latter has had a decent amateur schooling which suggests he can win a Decision on the cards, but I think he will need to impose himself on Michael McKinson and hurt him to win this fight.

Both can come again even if they lose, but my feeling is that Chris Kongo may have a come from behind win here as he finds the power shots to force the referee to step in even when he may be down on the cards.


Ted Cheeseman vs James Metcalf
There are some solid names at Light-Middleweight in the British ranks and two of them meet for the right to hold the British Title at 154 pounds.

James Metcalf is the unbeaten favourite, but he has been out of the ring over the last thirteen months and the Liverpudlian has only fought a single Round since his stand out win in June 2019 over Jason Welborn. The rest of the fighters that make up his 21-0 record don't really leap off the page and even the win over Welborn will be questioned by some who believe he had seen his best days at that point of his career.

You can't really argue that, but Kid Shamrock will have the confidence of an unbeaten fighter and a win over Ted Cheeseman would set him up for some big North West battles against the likes of Scott Fitzgerald and Anthony Fowler. At 32 years old it is time for Metcalf to really start motoring up the Rankings if he is going to achieve something really big in his Boxing career and a win on Saturday will certainly put him in a position to demand some of the biggest names in Britain going forward.

Winning won't be easy against Ted Cheeseman who is looking to get his own career back on track after some inconsistent performances over the last couple of years. Some of that was down to issues Cheeseman had been having outside of the ring, but he sounds like he is over those now and the Londoner has operated at a higher level than Metcalf.

Ted Cheeseman had been beaten by Sergio Garcia and Scott Fitzgerald and been awarded a disputed Draw with Kieron Conway as his career stalled, but he did earn an important Decision win over Sam Eggington during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August. The underdog also felt he deserved the Decision against Fitzgerald, something that others agreed with, and I do think Cheeseman is more than the rough, come forward fighter he was earlier in his career.

in the last couple of fights he has showcased some of his Boxing skills which have been important for a Boxer who has been involved in a number of wars already. I expect Ted Cheeseman to try and impose his skills in this fight against James Metcalf too, but I also like the resiliency he has displayed which means he can step into the pocket and mix it with opponents if necessary.

I am a little surprised that Metcalf is such a strong favourite to win this fight as I do feel he has plenty to prove despite the unbeaten record. This is a considerable step up and I am not sure Kid Shamrock has the power to stop The Big Cheese in this one, while I have been impressed by the some of the Boxing displayed by Ted Cheeseman in his last couple of fights.

My feeling is that Ted Cheeseman is being written off a little too easily in this one and I will back the underdog to find a way to reach a level that James Metcalf has yet to display. It should be one of the fights of the night with both willing to stand in the pocket and trade big shots, but I think the superior Boxing may come from Cheeseman which will lead to a tight win on the scorecards as he picks up the British Title again.


Fabio Wardley vs Eric Molina
There are two Heavyweight up and comers who are under the guidance of Dillian Whyte these days and thus have an opportunity to perform on the undercard of this PPV fight.

Erik Pfeifer will be out earlier in the night, but Fabio Wardley will be in a spot where a lot more eyes will be on him as he looks to step up his level of competition. He might not have the same amateur experiences as Pfeifer, but Fabio Wardley feels further along as a professional and he will be looking for a tenth stoppage and an eleventh win from eleven fights.

A blow out win over Richard Lartey saw Wardley better the likes of Daniel Dubois and Nathan Gormon in getting him out in Two Rounds, and he has had two solid wins as he stepped up his level of competition in 2020.

Now he takes on a fighter who has been in World Title fights and shared the ring with some of the very biggest names in the Division. Eric Molina is definitely on the late road of his career, but he will look for the experience gained from fighting the likes of Deontay Wilder, Anthony Joshua and Dominic Breazeale to stand him in good stead.

However, Molina has not fought since a Third Round Stoppage at the hands of Filip Hrgovic in December 2019 and that kind of lay off is hard to ignore. All six previous losses have been by Stoppage too and I do wonder if there is going to be much will to stand up to the kind of test a young and hungry fighter like Fabio Wardley will bring to the ring.

The British fighter is athletic and looks to hit plenty hard enough to beat Eric Molina at this stage of his career and the only question for me is how long the latter is able to last. The first two defeats in his career came in the First Round, but Eric Molina was able to reach the Third Round against both Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic.

Matching those results will be very impressive by Fabio Wardley if he can do that, but the young Heavyweight has admitted that he may need to weather some of the early storm before imposing his will on this fight. As I have said, the biggest question may actually be how much Eric Molina is going to want to take from a younger, fresher Heavyweight and I am not buying into the words of the American when he suggests he has found holes that can be exploited.

I think this fight is like to go a few Rounds, but Fabio Wardley has only allowed a single opponent to get past the Fourth Round and that was a rugged Argentinian who was eventually Stopped in the Sixth Round. Eric Molina has not shown the same kind of resistance even though he did make it to the second half of the bouts with Dominic Breazeale and Deontay Wilder before being undone.

The defeat to Breazeale was in late 2017 and Eric Molina has only had two fights since then which suggests he could be a little rusty in this one too. Fabio Wardley might need a touch longer than he did against Richard Lartey, but I would not be surprised if he matched Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic in producing a Third Round finish.

Even if Molina is able to get out of that Third Round, I think the tide would have turned by then and Fabio Wardley has shown the finishing power to make sure the American veteran is not able to hear the bell to signal the start of the Fifth Round.


Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte
I had a look back at my thoughts before the first fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin which ultimately concluded that I believed Whyte would win by Stoppage.

Back in August I felt that some of the punch resistance from Alexander Povetkin had gone having shown vulnerability in the Draw with Michael Hunter, and also the fact that he had been hurt by David Price. I figured Dillian Whyte had the power to hurt Povetkin even more than Hunter, but did write that I would not be that surprised if Alexander Povetkin was to hurt the British fighter too.

Much of what I had written seemed to be coming to fruition, but I did not figure Povetkin would find the punch he did to basically KO Dillian Whyte before he had even hit the floor. It was truly the most special of uppercuts and that coming in the Round immediately after being put on the canvas twice himself.

No will have doubted the amateur experience of Alexander Povetkin which meant he was showing off some of his skills in the first fight as he targeted the Dillian Whyte body, but the reduction of punch resistance was evident having been put down twice. Neither of the punches that put Povetkin on the floor were clean and it does suggest that a more aggressive Dillian Whyte might be able to earn plenty of revenge in this rematch.

I am usually of the feeling that you can't really recover from a Knock Out defeat in a rematch, but there are exceptions to the rule. Anthony Joshua showed that against Andy Ruiz Jr and I do think Dillian Whyte will be desperate to right what he will feel was a wrong in losing the first fight.

Alexander Povetkin is that much older now and he has also had to battle against Covid-19 since winning at Fight Camp and I do think he will need to find a special punch to win this one. Dillian Whyte could decide to keep things at range a little longer than he did in the first fight, but he will also know he can hurt the veteran and this time I don't believe Whyte will hold off when he does put Alexander Povetkin in trouble.

There are going to be denials now, but I do think Alexander Povetkin was close to being pulled in the first fight before finding his best punch. If he gets too carried away with looking for the one punch to turn things again, I expect Dillian Whyte to use the jab and heavier shots to hurt the veteran who does look like his best days are behind him.

Some are expecting this one to go much longer than the first fight, but I think we will see a similar fight develop with Dillian Whyte being a touch more aggressive to make sure he doesn't allow Povetkin to stick around. Anthony Joshua took Seven Rounds to get Alexander Povetkin out after getting through an early storm, but I think Dillian Whyte will have more control from the first bell and this time he will be the one with the big Stoppage win and likely earlier than Joshua managed to do against the Russian former World Champion.

MY PICKS: Willy Hutchinson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Erik Pfeifer to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chris Kongo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman to Win @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Fabio Wardley to Win Between 3-4 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dillian Whyte to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 7-14, - 5.18 Units (40 Units Staked, - 12.95% Yield)

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