The week started off pretty poorly, but two late winners has at least prevented serious damage being done on Monday as four new tournaments begin.
There are plenty of matches scheduled on Tuesday through the day with the majority of the First Round completed. The Qualifiers are done and those who have made it into the main draws will be looking to keep the upsets going, while those tournaments scheduled in the Middle East are the exception to the rule when it comes to Finals being set for Sunday and that always means a busy week in those events.
I've written down some of my thoughts for the ATP Rotterdam Picks for Tuesday and added the selections from WTA Doha, WTA Lyon and ATP Buenos Aires below.
Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are some big decisions that will need to be made by the players who represent Australia as they look to rejoin the Tour in 2021 with many missing the entirety of 2020 following the suspension of the Tours. Quarantine issues back home will mean the majority of those players will be living out of their suitcases for the foreseeable future and two Australians will meet thousands of miles away from home in the First Round in Rotterdam.
Alex De Minaur and John Millman will know all they need to about the other, and it is the higher Ranked Australian who will be heading into this match as the favourite. He enjoyed a much better month than John Millman who has made a stop in Singapore where he suffered his latest loss on the way to Europe.
Both are solid hard court players, but confidence has to be an issue for Millman having lost three matches in a row and the sole win coming against an opponent Ranked outside the top 400 in the World Rankings. Last week in Singapore John Millman was beaten by a fellow Australian Matthew Ebden, and his numbers have been pretty poor from the small sample of matches played on the hard courts in 2021.
Those numbers are considerably weaker than Alex De Minaur's numbers so far this season and I do think that makes a difference in this First Round match. Where Alex De Minaur has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts this season, John Millman is at 70%, while the former has also been the much more efficient returner so far.
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Alex De Minaur has really been on top of those players he has faced outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on this surface. His numbers have backed that up and I do think he will be able to get the better of his compatriot who De Minaur beat for the loss of four games in September 2019.
No one will deny how competitive John Millman can be, even when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour, and his return game can be a leveller. However I think Alex De Minaur does everything a little bit better than Millman and that can produce a solid win.
Karen Khachanov v Stan Wawrinka: These two have already faced each other in Rotterdam this week and that came on the Doubles court as Karen Khachanov partnered Andrey Rublev to a win over Stan Wawrinka and Dusan Lajovic. It feels like a good chance for Karen Khachanov to beat Stan Wawrinka on the Singles court too in what is likely to be a big hitting match, but one where the younger player may have too much strength for the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion.
There is no doubting how dangerous Stan Wawrinka can be and his serve continues to be a big weapon for the Swiss player and especially on the hard courts. He will look to put some pressure on Khachanov with a big serving day in conditions where it could be aided by the surface, but Wawrinka will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more consistent if he is going to get back to the kind of level he once displayed.
The serve is important, but it has some pressure on it because of the way Stan Wawrinka has struggled with the return aspect of his game on the hard courts. In the four matches played so far in 2021 the return hasn't been too bad, but in the last three seasons Stan Wawrinka has struggled to break serve with less than 19% of return games resulting in a break.
It is an aspect of his game which will be severely tested by Karen Khachanov who has consistently won around 66% of service points played on the hard courts. His numbers have been slightly stronger to open 2021 as Khachanov has put a Semi Final run and a Third Round run at the Australian Open in the books.
Like his opponent, Karen Khachanov is pretty comfortable in what he can do behind serve, but he also has his issues when it comes to breaks on the hard courts. It is perhaps the main reason this match has been set as a pick 'em, but in recent years Karen Khachanov has had the slightly superior returning numbers which could prove to be the difference.
Stan Wawrinka does lead the head to head 2-1, but the last of those meetings was won by Karen Khachanov who would have felt hard done by when losing the match prior to the win in Canada. The Russian has had the slightly better success when it comes to the return of serve in their head to head matches and he has created 11 break points compared with Stan Wawrinka's 6 break points in the last two matches.
You can't ignore the fact that Stan Wawrinka has been a little more clinical with his chances when they have come up, but winning their last match will help the Karen Khachanov mindset ahead of this match. I think he can level the head to head with the serving edge going to him in Rotterdam and I will look for Khachanov to win this pick 'em match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: The defeat in the Australian Open Semi Final would have stung Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially the manner in which he was beaten, but this is a star player in the making. The win over Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final showed what Stefanos Tsistipas is capable of and he will be looking for a strong final month on the hard courts before moving onto a more favoured clay court season.
He can have a strong run in Rotterdam this week as the Number 2 Seed in the draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be up against a Special Entrant in the First Round. You can't take anything for granted with the Qualifiers usually having their eye firmly in as well as a couple of matches in the new conditions that come with a move to a new tournament, but Egor Gerasimov has benefited from direct entry into the Rotterdam tournament thanks to his efforts in Montpellier last week.
The run last week will have given Gerasimov some confidence having seen off Andy Murray on his way to the Semi Final. Unlike his opponent, Egor Gerasimov would not have had many positive memories to take from his trip to Australia as he exited the first Grand Slam of the season in a match in which he won just a single game!
There is definitely more to him than that defeat to Aslan Karatsev would suggest and the Bulgarian has shown off some solid returning to back up what can be a very big serve when he is hitting his spots. It could particularly be a weapon for Gerasimov on an indoor hard court against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has had his returning issues in his early career.
Signs in Australia suggested that Tsitsipas has improved parts of that side of his game, but the small sample means it is going to be a test for the World Number 6 to see if he can maintain his successes. Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown improvement in his game on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons though and so my feeling is that he will be able to improve his return ratings over the course of 2021 compared to where he has been in 2019 and 2020.
These two players did meet on what has traditionally been fast hard courts in Dubai a couple of years ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who blew past Egor Gerasimov. I do think the latter is improved since then, but so is Tsitsipas and he can begin his healing after the disappointing end to his Australian Open campaign by winning this match in good fashion.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paula Badosa @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Facundo Bagnis @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
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