Dubai is a different story with the Third Round scheduled to be completed in a single day as we approach Saturday's Final and that means it is the busiest of the events on Wednesday with eight matches scheduled to be played.
My focus remains on the Tennis being played in Dubai with none of the four matches in the WTA event in St Petersburg appealing through the numbers. There do look to be some tight and competitive matches that will need to be played in Dubai in the Third Round, but I have found three selections which you can read below.
I will update the weekly totals on Wednesday when I will add any Picks from the two tournaments being played in Mexico.
It was a decent day on Tuesday from the Tennis Picks made in Dubai, but the overall performance of the day will depend on how the selection from Acapulco goes through the night. Either way it is good to put a winning day on the board anyway and means there is something to build upon as we approach the end of the tournaments before the few days break ahead of the Miami Masters.
Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov over 22.5 games: Throughout his career, Jeremy Chardy has been a decent if unspectacular hard court player and the last month since the First Round defeat at the Australian Open has been strong for the Frenchman. He Qualified for the main draw in Rotterdam and went on to reach the Quarter Final in the ATP 500 event, and two good looking wins have been produced in Dubai.
Jeremy Chardy came from a set down to beat a solid Alex De Minaur in the Second Round and the only real concern has to be the amount of time spent on the court through the first three days at the tournament.
To win a match like this, Jeremy Chardy will know he needs to get a little more out of the serve to keep Karen Khachanov at bay, especially as the Russian is still serving at a very high level. However Khachanov is a player that has struggled on his return of serve and so the key for Jeremy Chardy is to not give a service game or two away.
Karen Khachanov has made a decent start to 2021 in terms of his results with a couple of Quarter Final runs on the hard courts and another Semi Final run, but the return numbers continue to put some pressure on his own serve. His numbers have been consistent on that side of his game with around 36-37% of return points won, but it has also meant he has broken in around 20-21% of return games played and perhaps means the Russian gets involved in too many tight matches that sees him run out of gas the longer he is involved in a tournament.
The win over Alexei Popyrin will give Karen Khachanov confidence, while he is holding almost 89% of service games played on the hard courts. That makes Khachanov dangerous and especially if Jeremy Chardy is not able to keep himself focused behind the serve having dropped it five times already in this tournament, but I do feel the underdog can at least keep the match competitive.
Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was won 7-6, 7-6 by Karen Khachanov on a day where only three break points were faced by Jeremy Chardy and neither player saw their serve broken. With the faster conditions we have seen in Dubai, a strong serving day from the two involved could see this total games mark surpassed even in a straight sets win for either player.
Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: There is no doubting that every experience facing Aslan Karatsev is going to feel pretty new to a player who has only recently made his way into the top 100 of the World Rankings. The unexpected run to the Australian Open Semi Final will have made many aware of the Russian player, while it also means Aslan Karatsev is no longer flying under the radar, but is playing with a target on his back.
Some nerves have been on display in his two wins in Dubai this week, but the manner in which Karatsev held himself together to finally see off Daniel Evans in the Second Round figures to stand him in good stead. He did need almost two and a half hours on the court to earn his way into the Third Round and there is a potential for some fatigue with matches being played each day, but Aslan Karatsev could have easily won the match in straight sets if not throwing away a game when leading 4-3, 40-0 in the second set which was eventually lost 4-6.
There is room for improvement in the level being produced this week and that has to be encouraging for Aslan Karatsev- winning matches without being at your best will only increase the confidence of any player and I think he can get the better of this opponent in the Third Round.
That is not to take anything away from Lorenzo Sonego who won his opening match here in routine fashion and so should be much more rested than Karatsev. The numbers produced by the Italian are strong overall, but he holds a 4-5 record on the hard courts in 2021 and I do have to note that Lorenzo Sonego's stats have been improved massively by the fact he has played three opponents Ranked outside the top 100.
Lorenzo Sonego has lost three straight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, although the serve is a potent weapon and has to be respected. This season Lorenzo Sonego has held almost 87% of the service games played on the surface and is winning just under 69% of points played on his serve and those are numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced.
They are certainly numbers that make Sonego dangerous, but his main issue has been the struggles on the return of serve and breaking in under 15% of return games will put pressure on him. Lorenzo Sonego has broken in 14.6% of return games played against the top 100 players he has met in 2021 and that is very similar to the 14.4% mark when considering his overall career against the top 100 on this surface.
Aslan Karatsev has been returning pretty effectively all season and I do think that edge will see him come through this match, although it would be a surprise if we didn't see one tie-breaker. The 'secret weapon' of the Russian team at the ATP Cup impressed with his returning in Australia in his run to the Semi Final, but he has maintained a strong level when playing in the Middle East over the last couple of weeks and has won 39% of return points played while forcing breaks of serve in 27% of return games played.
His serve might not have the same kind of numbers as Lorenzo Sonego, but Karatsev protects it plenty well enough to win this match and get over the mark as long as the win over Daniel Evans hasn't taken too much out of the gas tank.
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: If there has been any lingering issue with the back that forced the withdrawal in Doha last week, Marton Fucsovics has not shown too many signs of it with his run to the Third Round in Dubai. He has spent over four and a half hours on the court to come from a set down in each of the first two matches played here and Fucsovics continues to perform at a high level which will give him confidence through the remainder of the first half of the hard court season.
At this stage it would be a surprise if Marton Fucsovics did not produce his most wins on the hard courts since 2018 and it is the improvement on the serve which have been most evident to open 2021. There had been a decline in both the percentage of service games held and service points won in his hard court matches in each of the past three seasons, but Marton Fucsovics has held 85% of his service games in the fourteen hard court matches played this season.
He has improved his service points won to 66% from what has been a consistent 60.5% mark over the couple of seasons on the surface and you simply can't ignore that improvement which has also come with improved results.
Marton Fucsovics has long been a comfortable returner on the hard courts and he has lost none of his effectiveness on that side of his game while improving his serve. He beat Dusan Lajovic in straight sets last week in Doha and the Hungarian had a considerable edge when it comes to the service performance in that match which makes me feel he can frank the win in another part of the Middle East.
The real difference between the players on the hard courts have come in the returning performances in recent seasons, but Dusan Lajovic will feel more pressure if he cannot produce a better service day. The Serb has a decent pop from his serve and he can be very good on his best day, but Lajovic has only broken in 19% of return games played in 2021 compared with the 26% mark that Marton Fucsovics has produced and that can be the difference in this Third Round match.
The strange Ranking formula still being used means Dusan Lajovic is considerably higher than Marton Fucsovics in the World Rankings and earned a Bye into the Second Round. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round against veteran Malek Jaziri, but Dusan Lajovic's numbers have taken a significant dent when facing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts this season and he has lost three of his last four matches against those opponents.
This is a considerable mark for Marton Fucsovics to cover, but I think he can get the better of the returning numbers that will lead to a similar kind of win as the one he put up over Dusan Lajovic in Doha last week.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas-John Isner Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.06 Units (18 Units Staked, + 22.56% Yield)
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