The first Masters of the 2021 season is being played in its usual spot in the calendar and these tournaments are likely to be very important with the Ranking system due to change back to the 52 Week system rather than the two year system being used right now.
A part of the reason was the havoc created by the Covid-19 crisis twelve months ago, and that means the next four months are going to see a number of the tournaments being played that could not be played in their usual spots last season. Some, like Miami, were not played at all, while the French Open will move back to it's May spot in the calendar and it does mean there is still a dispute between the players and the Tours as to how the Rankings are looking right now.
I am hoping the clay court season can be played in full this time around and that should also lead into the return of grass court tennis which was cancelled last year. By the time all of those tournaments are in the books, the Ranking system will be close to be returning to the usual criteria and that will see some vast changes being made on both the ATP and WTA Tours.
Players can't do much about the Rankings for now and so it is important to focus on their tennis and win as many matches as possible to win Titles and be in a position where their positions will more closely reflect their current performances. It may mean a couple of lopsided Slam draws coming up before the US Open later in the year, but there has to be a time when the players stop talking about things and just prepare for the impending return to normality for the system.
The opening three days at the Miami Masters have returned a profit each time and that has put down a strong foundation for the Tennis Picks at this tournament. I have had my fair share of luck with the big points of matches landing in my favour in a couple of matches and that has helped put this start together.
I have to be honest and mention that because I did write last month how you need a bit of luck with every Tennis Pick made no matter how much research you put into finding the selections you want. Ultimately it doesn't take much for a match to swing one way or another and you just have to hope those you pick can play their best tennis at the most pressurised of moments.
So far this week it has happened in my favour having previously been disappointed to have been on the wrong end of those moments- both Frances Tiafoe and Simona Halep have covered with a late run of games in the last couple of days, but it has evened things up from last month and hopefully I can continue to get the rub of the green to go with solid selections who have managed to win their matches even more comfortably than I could have imagined.
The full selections for Day 4 and the updated totals from the Miami Masters can be read below.
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert over 22.5 games: The conditions in Miami have historically been slower than the majority of the hard courts the players will perform on over the course of the Tennis Tour. This year doesn't feel any different, but it will still be difficult for two solid servers and limited returners to make an impact when it comes to breaking the other's serve in this Second Round match.
Both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be pretty happy with the performances to open the 2021 season with both players deciding to take in the hard court events where they can.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has reached the Final of one tournament and was a Quarter Finalist in Acapulco last week as well as a Fourth Round loser at the Australian Open. He will still regret blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in Melbourne, but overall a 9-4 start to the 2021 season will have given the young Canadian something to build upon.
While he received a Bye into the Second Round in Miami, Pierre-Hugues Herbert was a very easy winner in the First Round. The Frenchman is back for the first time since losing a tight Final in Marseille against Daniil Medvedev, but the run in one of the tournaments played on his home soil will have given Herbert a boost after a relatively low-key start to the season which included a First Round defeat at the Australian Open.
The serve has always been a big part of the Pierre-Hugues Herbert game and he has won 67% of points played behind that shot. It has led to him holding 82% of service games played on the hard courts and it is the kind of mark that Herbert has been used to producing on this surface and he will be confident against an opponent like Felix Auger-Aliassime who can be erratic when it comes to the return.
There is no doubting the talent Auger-Aliassime has, but the return has seen him break in just 20% of return games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2021. It is a number we have become accustomed in seeing from the young Canadian, but his own serve has produced a hold in 83% of service games played. Much like himself, Pierre-Hugues Herbert has struggled to really impose himself on the return of serve and has broken in 21% of return games played this season.
Again it should be noted this is very similar to the level Herbert has been used to putting on the court and I am not surprised that in the two previous meetings between these players that the serve has dominated. Both of those previous matches came on the indoor hard courts of Montpellier and Marseille just prior to the global lockdown back in February 2020 and four of the five sets needed twelve games to separate the two players.
Three of those have ended with tie-breakers and Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 96% of the service games played against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, while the latter held 89% of his own games. The feeling is that this match could go in a similar direction despite the slower conditions in Miami and the two players can combine to surpass the total games line.
Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: 2021 has started much better for Alexei Popyrin than it has for Reilly Opelka, and the former may be a decent price underdog to win this Second Round match.
However it is always dangerous to take on Reilly Opelka with the monster serve he possesses and particularly with a limited returner like Popyrin. The latter did have a good win over Feliciano Lopez in the First Round, but the veteran Spaniard is not the player he once was and Alexei Popyrin will know that is going to be a completely different kind of test for him.
He has won a ATP Title in Singapore this season which is going to give Alexei Popyrin plenty of belief to take forward, and he is almost certainly going to hit a career best World Ranking in the weeks ahead. That is all positive news for the Australian who has held almost 87% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021 and will likely believe he can at least control that side of his performance against Reilly Opelka.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Reilly Opelka has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts and he may not have a lot of joy out of this one as long as Alexei Popyrin is focused and not frustrated. Like many of the really big servers on the Tour like John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, Reilly Opelka can build scoreboard pressure by rolling through his own service games and shift the pressure onto an opponent to stay with him.
That may be the case in this match when you think Opelka has held 91% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021. There is no doubt that Alexei Popyrin has a superior return game compared with the American, but Popyrin has only broken in 18% of return games played on the hard courts and it does feel like a match that is likely going to go long even in the slower conditions that the players will be dealing with.
Alexei Popyrin is 11-3 in tie-breakers played this season compared with Reilly Opelka being 4-6 and I do think the former can upset the odds. However I do mainly feel this is going to be a Second Round match that is going to be massively dominated by the serve and it could easily be one that surpasses the total games mark set, even at the mark where it currently is.
I would not be surprised at all if the winner of this match needs to win two tie-breakers to move through to the Third Round and so backing these two big servers to combine to surpass the total games line on Friday.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: One player who feels like he has a bigger profile than his Tennis warrants can sometimes be incredibly overrated as the layers know the money is likely to come down in his favour. Grigor Dimitrov is an inconsistent player who might have reached Number 3 in the World Rankings, but has never played in a Grand Slam Final and has only made it through to three Slam Semi Finals.
Relatively speaking that isn't a bad career, but it has felt like Dimitrov warrants more headlines than a player with that kind of career has deserved. Some of that may be down to being linked with Roger Federer as his early 'Baby Fed' moniker perhaps gave Dimitrov a higher platform than was warranted.
He hasn't played badly to open 2021, and Dimitrov has reached the Quarter Final at all three events he has played on the hard courts. That is encouraging, but Grigor Dimitrov's losses to Corentin Moutet, Aslan Karatsev and Lorenzo Musetti are disappointing ones and he will feel he has missed an opportunity to go much deeper into those tournaments.
Grigor Dimitrov would likely look to improve the service numbers if he is going to maintain his current level through the course of the season. Over the last fifteen months the return of serve has been keeping Dimitrov going as he has produced numbers that have not really been a feature of recent seasons and that could be key to the outcome of this Second Round match.
The Bulgarian takes on Cameron Norrie who pulled a victory from the jaws of defeat in the First Round and is one win away from matching the thirteen hard court wins he produced in 2020. Cameron Norrie has taken in a few more tournaments than Grigor Dimitrov, but he has put a number of good results in the books and, like his higher Ranked opponent, Norrie has really laid the foundation for his successes so far on the return game.
Both players will feel the conditions will aid their ability to get into the return games, although the feeling is that both Grigor Dimitrov and Cameron Norrie would ultimately prefer the faster hard courts. There are similarities with the way both have played this season, but Dimitrov looks to have been the slightly stronger behind his own serve and on the return and I think that shows up in this Second Round match.
I expect it will be quite a competitive match, but Grigor Dimitrov has the ability to make the flashy winners and produce a bit of magic tennis to edge the match in his favour. Cameron Norrie can be very good, but he is winning slightly fewer percentage points of service and return points and I do think the former top tenner will find his way to win and cover.
Daniel Evans v Frances Tiafoe: I can't really complain considering Frances Tiafoe got the job done for me a couple of days ago, but it was a very tight First Round match and he did have to spend over two hours on court to win the match. It underlined the point I made about Tiafoe being inconsistent within matches let alone from tournament to tournament and he remains a pretty average hard court player.
There is some talent coming from his racquet and a strong athleticism which keeps Frances Tiafoe competitive, but I do think it is right that he is set as the underdog in this match.
Daniel Evans has won a Title on the hard courts in 2021, but since then he has been beaten in three of four matches, although one was against Roger Federer and the other against Aslan Karatsev. In those two losses Evans was more than a little bit competitive and he will feel he was a point or two from turning those matches in his favour which will give him confidence even if the British player is going to be frustrated he didn't win either.
Neither of the last two opponents have created more break points than Daniel Evans in the match, but that won't make Evans feel that much happier.
He has made a decent start to the 2021 season on the hard courts and Daniel Evans has proven to be an effective returner which should cause problems for Frances Tiafoe. The latter has struggled returning on the hard courts in recent seasons, but Tiafoe will feel he can have some success in this match considering the early season form displayed in 2021.
Ultimately the serve has not been as effective and it has to be a little concern for Frances Tiafoe that he only has a 5-4 record on the hard courts in 2021 despite only playing one player Ranked inside the top 59 (although that was Novak Djokovic and ended in a four set loss at the Australian Open). When you actually have a look at the numbers and the level of competition, you do have to favour Daniel Evans to have a bit too much and get back to winning ways.
Daniel Evans has looked like he is playing the better tennis on the hard courts in 2021 and his numbers have looked stronger despite the fact that he has played a better level of competition. The British player is also 3-1 against Frances Tiafoe with all four matches having been played on the hard courts, and Daniel Evans has had the better of the head to head numbers with a slight advantage behind the serve.
I think there is a chance this goes long, but I think Evans can win the match and he looks like he is priced where he can be backed.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniel Evans @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Miami Masters Update: 10-3, + 10.86 Units (26 Units Staked, + 41.77% Yield)
Great job Dav
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