Featured post

College Football Picks- Playoff First Round 2024 (Friday 20th December-Saturday 21st December)

The first twelve team College Football Playoff Bracket will begin on Friday with the First Round games being played across a couple of days....

Saturday, 13 March 2021

Boxing Picks 2021- Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman Gonzalez (March 13th)

There are Boxing cards most weekend, but it was still a disappointment to see the slight delay to the Dillian Whyte vs Alexander Povetkin rematch which means that bout, and rest of the card, will take place at the end of March rather than opening the month.

It did mean it was a quieter opening week of March, although it was good to see Tony Yoka back in the ring as the Heavyweight looks to put some momentum behind his career. Tony Yoka has to be looking at the likes of Joe Joyce with some envy as they looked like they were beginning their careers on a similar path, but it is up to the Frenchman to not only become more active, but also start to raise the level of the opponents he is facing to show he is up to the task of challenging for World Titles.

Speaking about the Heavyweights, I was really hoping we would have gotten some news about the first of what is expected to be two bouts between Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury. At the moment the best we have received is continued teases of being 'days away' from an announcement, but nothing has been signed off and Tyson Fury was on the media rounds this past week sounding very much less confident than the likes of Bob Arum and Eddie Hearn about that Super-Fight being next.

The lack of clarity has the whole Division on hold with Oleksandr Usyk not able to confirm his bout with Joe Joyce that was expected to be for the interim WBO World Title- while the AJ-Fury fight is still up in the air, Usyk's team are confident they can push for their mandatory and don't want to be locked into any contract before that.

Dillian Whyte's immediate future is set, while Deontay Wilder, Dereck Chisora and Joseph Parker are all in and around the World Title discussions but yet to confirm what is next for them. One former World Champion that will return to the ring is Andy Ruiz Jr who is due out next month in his first fight under Eddy Reynoso.

That is going to be really interesting to see how the pairing works considering the successes Reynoso has had with Canelo, but more recently with Ryan Garcia and Oscar Valdez. A fit, healthy and motivated Andy Ruiz Jr could be fun to watch in the Division, but for now all is on hold as the fans continue to wait and see if the big Unification fight can be put together to determine the best of this generation.


Two weeks ago Eddy Reynoso was overseeing Canelo Alvarez' destructive win over an overmatched Avni Yildirim- the result was not a surprise, but it has cleared the mandatory and now the path is clear for the Mexican superstar to become the first Boxer to try and Unify the Super-Middleweight Division.

Next up for Canelo Alvarez is Billy Joe Saunders on May 8th and then it could be full steam ahead towards Caleb Plant who is unlikely to risk his big payday before the expected September clash.

All credit has to be given to Canelo for trying to put a strong legacy together and Unifying the 168 pound Division would be a massive achievement. It does feel like the Gennady Golovkin trilogy is still a possibility, but unlikely before 2022, and it will be fun to see what kind of challenges Canelo sets for himself if he is successful in his next two bouts to hold all the belts at Super-Middleweight.

At this moment my feeling is that Caleb Plant is the bigger challenge left out of the two Champions Canelo is targeting, but Billy Joe Saunders is no slouch and I think May 8th will be a lot of fun.


Last weekend was a relatively quiet one, but the remainder of March has some strong cards on tap and it should be very enjoyable for us Boxing fans. I have signed up for DAZN and they are putting a couple of strong cards together which makes the price very much worth paying and the first of those takes place this weekend in Dallas when we have the rematch between Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez.

This is a potential 'Fight of the Year' contender, while David Benavidez is back for the first time since missing weight meaning he was not able to pick up the WBC Super Middleweight Title last August. He is still campaigning at 168 pounds, but any potential bout against Canelo Alvarez is not going to happen in 2021 and that is his punishment for inexcusably losing the green belt twice without actually losing a fight.


Jessica McCaskill vs Cecilia Braekhus
When these two met in August 2020 the expectation was that the 'First Lady' of Boxing was going to retain her World Titles as a comfortable favourite against Jessica McCaskill.

That would have seen Cecilia Braekhus surpass the number of World Title defences Joe Louis had when dominating the Heavyweight Division, but instead she was on the wrong end of an upset having been considered the Pound for Pound star of Women's Boxing.

Comments immediately after the fight are something of a concern as it sounded like Braekhus was heading into retirement having spoken about 'passing the torch' to McCaskill and saying Women's Boxing would 'be fine' without her. Those kind of comments can be very difficult to come back from as it says a lot about what a fighter is feeling inside and I do have some questions about how much a 39 year old Cecilia Braekhus will want to return to the top of the 147 pound Division.

She has suggested that there has been a reigniting of motivation thanks to some of the quotes attributed to Jessica McCaskill ever since she won the first fight.

Perhaps the cold light of day allowed Cecilia Braekhus the opportunity to reanalyse the fight and come to the conclusion that she was unfortunate to lose on the night and I think my feeling is leaning towards revenge rather than repeat. The former Champion actually landed more punches in the first fight, albeit by a single punch margin according to those who record those shots, while I think Cecilia Braekhus would have learnt plenty from the Ten Rounds that are in the bank.

Jessica McCaskill has a style that can make it very easy to score Rounds in her favour as she pursues opponents with aggression and pushing the tempo and in the first fight she threw a lot more punches than her opponent. Not landing those is an issue, but McCaskill looked comfortable with the pace and her aggression won out on the day despite the better countering evidently coming from Cecilia Braekhus.

I don't think the style and visual of the fight will change much as a younger and fresher McCaskill looks to put it on the former Champion from the opening bell through the Ten Rounds scheduled. The big question that will be answered is how much Cecilia Braekhus wants to be restored as Champion and how much she really believes she should still be the Champion having suggested she was harshly treated by the judges back in August.

I do think we will see more punches thrown by Cecilia Braekhus in this one, but I also believe she will be much better prepared to deal with the pressure and aggression Jessica McCaskill will be bringing into the ring. That can see the Norwegian picking her off a little clearer for the judges to see and I think Braekhus is able to reverse the scorecards and earn the Decision this time while either setting up for the trilogy later in the year or perhaps even focusing on the catchweight potential bout against Clarissa Shields.

It was a Majority Decision which done it for Jessica McCaskill back in August, but she was at home that night and this time Cecilia Braekhus can be the fighter that comes away with a tight win on the cards.


Juan Francisco Estrada vs Roman Gonzalez
These two met a little over eight years ago and at seven pounds lighter, and it is a rematch that comes at a time when both Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez are much more experienced and coming off strong performances.

Not many would have expected to see Chocolatito in a fight of this importance after the Knock Out defeat to Wisaksil Wangek which was his second consecutive loss to the Thai fighter. At 33 years old there are some miles on the clock for Roman Gonzalez, but he has bounced back to win four fights in a row.

The most impressive of those came a little over twelve months ago when Roman Gonzalez stopped Khalid Yafai in Nine Rounds to win the WBA Super Fly Title and that is easily the toughest fight he has taken on during this four fight winning run. He looked close to his best in dominating an unbeaten Champion who was looking to move amongst the elite in the Division and it was Gonzalez who got the better of things when him and Juan Francisco Estrada shared a ring back in 2012.

This is a different Estrada to the one that was beaten by Chocolatito and back in 2012 the Mexican was just 22 years old and largely seen as a prospect rather than a contender. Juan Francisco Estrada didn't disappoint on the day, but he has gone from strength to strength since then and has earned revenge over the other two opponents who have beaten him.

One of those was the aforementioned Wangek and Juan Francisco Estrada has earned back to back Stoppage wins since then. He is a tough fighter who is willing to take one punch to land some of his own and he will be looking to put the pressure on Roman Gonzalez, although Estrada showed some vulnerability when Knocked Down in his last bout against Carlos Cuadras before rallying and becoming the first to stop his compatriot later in the same fight.

Both look in great shape and I think they are going to mesh very well in what could be another hugely entertaining fight put on by the Super Flyweights.

There is every reason to argue that the winner of this fight will not only be a two Belt holder, but also the best in the Division even if Wisaksil Wangek will have something to say about that. He is likely going to be the next opponent for whoever wins, but that fighter will need some time off after what is likely going to be a gruelling World Title fight.

Roman Gonzalez is the better boxer and he still has some pop in his punches, while Juan Francisco Estrada can leave himself open at times. That will be encouraging to the narrow underdog, but I do think Estrada is the fresher fighter and he has shown he is willing to take opponents into deep waters where the accumulation of his work is most keenly felt.

Anything but a top fight would be a surprise and I think both of these boxers will have their moments and I can't rule out both being Knocked Down at some point through the Twelve Rounds. My feeling is that Juan Francisco Estrada has a bit more left in the tank at this point of their careers and he has the benefit of redeeming himself in two of his previous three defeats with this one being the exception so far.

Most will likely expect this one to go to the cards and I think both Estrada and Gonzalez have shown they can come through the fire to hear the final bell throughout their careers. However I do think Chocolatito is not the same level of fighter as he once was while it feels like Juan Francisco Estrada is hitting his peak and that may see him find the strength and right combinations to end this one in the Championship Rounds.

I am looking forward to this one as a fan and I don't think I will be disappointed, but I do think a small interest is warranted on Estrada earning his third straight Stoppage in the later Rounds of his bouts as he earns revenge and wins the Unification World Title scrap.


David Benavidez vs Ronald Ellis
If it wasn't for some of the weight issues, David Benavidez might have been looking forward to a Unification fight with Canelo Alvarez at some point in 2021.

He is still keen on getting in the ring with the Mexican Pound for Pound star, but without a belt there could be a long wait, although the huge potential payday has ensured Benavidez has not thought about moving up in weight.

The 175 pound Division may be the more natural for David Benavidez, but for now he is trying to tempt someone to come up and weight him at Super Middleweight or continue to keep winning and force a mandatory with Canelo in 2022.

David Benavidez has to keep winning and this looks a good chance to showcase his skills when taking on Ronald Ellis.

The 31 year old American has a decent 18-1-2 record, although you wouldn't make a huge note of many of the fighters has beaten on his record. Ronald Ellis benefited from the latest injury suffered by Matvey Korobov who was leading on the cards before being forced to retire with an ankle issues suffered on the night.

Other than that, Ronald Ellis doesn't really have anyone on his resume that suggests he can beat an opponent of the level of David Benavidez and I fully expect the unbeaten fighter to eventually walk Ellis down and earn a Stoppage. Accumulation of punches and a willingness to break the spirit before looking to break down the body should give David Benavidez a real edge in the fight and I think he will make a statement by making sure Ronald Ellis does not hear the final bell.

Some will feel this could end early, but I think Benavidez is someone who relies on accumulation rather than a one punch Knock Out ability and that should see him getting the job done in the second half of the fight. In the early part of his career David Benavidez did earn the early Stoppages against overmatched opponents, but seven of his last nine fights have lasted at least Seven Rounds and I think Ellis will do enough to at least get to that stage of this bout.

While he has not really been in with opponents of this level, Ronald Ellis has shown some durability, but I don't think it will be enough to weather the storm that David Benavidez will bring in the second half of this fight.

The unbeaten fighter can then choose to call out the likes of Canelo Alvarez and Caleb Plant, although Benavidez may have to wait until his mandatory shot is called for the WBC Title.

MY PICKS: Cecilia Braekhus to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Francisco Estrada to Win Between 7-12 @ 7.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
David Benavidez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 5-9, - 4.08 Units (27 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

No comments:

Post a Comment