Miami Masters Day 8 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 30th)

The Tournament Schedule at the Miami Masters means we have to wait for some of the markets to be generated for those matches that are set to be played on Day 8.

The entire ATP Fourth Round and two of the WTA Quarter Finals are set to be played and waiting for the completion of the Day 7 matches means there is also a wait for the upcoming markets to be put together. That does mean I will look the majority of the matches on Tuesday morning when I will add any selections to this thread, although I have looked through half of the ATP Fourth Round matches that were set up on Sunday evening.

I will update the thread on Tuesday and will also update the totals from the Miami Masters at the same time.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Severe cramping looked like it might see the demise of the favourite to win the title at the ATP Miami Masters, but Daniil Medvedev continues to display the kind of resistance and belief in his own game to overcome challenges. Being in this half of the draw is important for Daniil Medvedev too as it means he gets a rest day between the Third Round and Fourth Round and that should mean he is able to get over the issues he faced a couple of days ago.

It was a deserved win for Daniil Medvedev over Alexei Popyrin and only a single lapse in the second set forced him to spend over two and a half hours on the court. I don't think his overall conditioning is a concern, but I do think the Russian will want to be a little more focused throughout this Fourth Round match to avoid being dragged into another deep match.

His opponent won't be a lot fresher as Frances Tiafoe was able to recover from a set down for a third time at the Miami Masters. The American has spent effectively at least two hours on the court in each of his three wins, but Tiafoe has also been on the right side of a bit of fortune over the past week to earn his spot in the Fourth Round.

The numbers have suggested that Frances Tiafoe is little more than a fairly steady hard court player, although he is getting a touch more out of his serve this week. His is still winning 37% of the return points played, but Tiafoe has held 88% of his service games played this past week compared with his 80% mark for the 2021 season on the hard courts.

It is encouraging for Tiafoe, but he is going to be tested by the Daniil Medvedev return game which is as good as virtually anyone on the Tour. Daniil Medvedev has created at least eight break points in both wins secured in Miami and he has broken in 32% of return games played on the hard courts in 2021 which will give him the confidence to attack the Tiafoe serve.

Frances Tiafoe has played the big points on his serve very well this week, but I expect Daniil Medvedev to put him under more pressure than his previous opponents.

Last year Medvedev beat Tiafoe at both the Australian and US Open tournaments and he has won all three hard court matches these two have played against one another. I have to respect the fact that Frances Tiafoe has had some success getting into the Daniil Medvedev serve in those matches, but the worry for the home player has to be the 52% of return games in which Medvedev has broken his serve.

The Russian top five World Ranked player has won just under 49% of return points played against Frances Tiafoe in their previous hard court matches and I think Daniil Medvedev covers this handicap in a win.

John Isner-Roberto Bautista Agut over 23.5 games: There are significant signs that there is a decline in the level John Isner has been able to bring to the courts over the last fifteen months and it may soon mean slipping down the World Rankings. The change in the system back the normal 52 Week system will hurt Isner unless he can put some serious Ranking points back on the board and his two wins in Miami will help.

He is now a month out from his 36th birthday and there have been some signs that the once potent serve is losing some of its power. He has held a high 88% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that is still a drop off from the 92% number we have become used to seeing from Isner over the course of the season.

It also puts immense pressure on a player who has always been a pretty limited returner- John Isner has broken in less than 10% of return games played on the hard courts in the 2019, 2020 and 2021 season. In the last fifteen months John Isner has won fewer than 28% of the return points played on the hard courts and some of the confidence may have been lost during that time, another issue which will have benefited from the wins secured over the past week.

In the Fourth Round John Isner takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has not really found the level we have come to expect from the Spaniard. He is still playing at a good level, but there is room for improvement from Bautista Agut and his win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the Third Round will have helped, especially the way he came from behind to secure it.

Playing the big points more efficiently is the key for Roberto Bautista Agut who has won 65% of the points played behind serve this season, the same as his 2020 numbers. However he is holding 78% of his service games compared with 82% last season, while Roberto Bautista Agut is just a couple of percentage points below his mark for returning points won in 2021 compared with 2020. Again, that has led to him breaking significantly less than he was last season, but it really won't take a lot for Bautista Agut to get back to the kind of level he had been operating at.

He is playing well enough to feel he can get the better of John Isner on current form, although it is the American who holds a 3-1 lead in their head to head matches. All have been tight matches played on hard courts, the last of which came here in Miami two years ago as Isner won a couple of tie-breakers to move through the draw and was eventually a beaten Finalist.

Both players have had success looking after their own serve in those head to head matches and I think we will see something similar here. All four of their previous matches have needed at least 26 games played between them and the first three went the distance.

The feeling is that both are going to have successes on the serve, but the two players have been guilty of some sloppy service games which could see this match go the distance too. It certainly suggests the match is one that can see this total games line surpassed, even on a slower surface that is a regular feature of the Miami Masters.

Alexander Bublik v Taylor Fritz: The absence of a number of the top 100 players in the World Rankings will have hurt the Miami Masters draw and appeal to the fans, but it is also a big opportunity for players to pick up some vital Ranking points. Both Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik are in the top 50 of the World Rankings and reaching a Masters Quarter Final will be a huge boost, especially ahead of the clay court season when neither is expected to have a massive impact.

There is some pressure on both players knowing the opportunity they have in front of them and I don't think either is going to be worried about the match up.

Taylor Fritz was perhaps a little more fortunate to reach the Fourth Round having secured a tight win over Cameron Norrie in the Third Round, while Alexander Bublik has made the kind of light work that would have been expected of him when the matches were set for the last couple of Rounds. This is the toughest match that Bublik will have faced in the tournament, but he is showing signs of improvement as the confidence builds.

I expect there to be plenty of service games where both Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik are able to shorten points and rip through them in short order. Both players have very similar service numbers on the hard courts in 2021 with both winning around 66% of service points played and both holding 85% of service games played.

There are also similarities with the returning performances with both winning 34% of return points played on the hard courts, although Alexander Bublik has perhaps played the bigger points a little better having broken in 21% of return games played compared with Taylor Fritz' 18% mark.

It is a Fourth Round match with all the hallmarks of being a close one, but I do think Alexander Bublik has the mental edge having won both previous matches between these players. Those have come on the hard courts and it is Bublik who has managed to hold in 96% of the service games he has played compared with Taylor Fritz' 89% mark in those matches.

I do note that it is Taylor Fritz who has created more of the break points in both matches, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he can turn the form around. However I think the overall season performances on the big points seem to favour Alexander Bublik and he may just edge past Taylor Fritz as the underdog, and especially at a price where he seems to be under-rated quite significantly in my opinion.

A three setter can't be ruled out and I do think both would have preferred quicker conditions, but I like the way Alexander Bublik has been playing and his numbers suggest he may have the slight edge in this one. I feel the wrong player is being favoured in the Fourth Round match and I will back the underdog to move into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

John Isner-Roberto Bautista Agut Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 27-21, + 5.32 Units (96 Units Staked, + 5.54% Yield)