The opening days of the Miami Masters are going to involve a number of matches featuring Qualifiers and that means that not all the markets are compiled for the First Round matches.
I have a few selections from Day 2 of the main draw, but I could potentially add some Picks here once those matches featuring Qualifiers have some prices attached to them.
Day 1 turned a very slight profit with a 2-1 record, but a winning day is always one you have to appreciate. Hopefully it is the start of a positive two weeks to end the month before the clay court events start in early April.
I have my Tennis Picks below from Day 2, but I may still add a couple of Picks when the Qualifiers have been placed in the draws and if they fit the criteria.
Andrea Petkovic v Shuai Zhang: Injuries and a loss of form has afflicted both of these veterans of the WTA Tour and neither Andrea Petkovic nor Shuai Zhang has a lot of matches under their belt in 2021. Shuai Zhang is still considerably higher up the World Rankings than Andrea Petkovic, but that is partly down to the fact that 2020 was effectively a write off for the latter.
The German has opened 2021 at 1-3 on the Singles court, but Shuai Zhang isn't any better losing her sole match at the Australian Open and not participating in a Singles tournament either before or since the first Grand Slam of the season was played.
Andrea Petkovic will be disappointed with the results, but she has to be encouraged by how well she has competed. The numbers have backed that up and her last two matches have ended in final set decider defeats, and Petkovic has been returning well enough to believe she can still cause problems for opponents even if she is unlikely to turn back the clock and produce the form that took her into the top ten of the World Rankings a decade ago.
Well I think it is unlikely to be consistently produced to return to that kind of level in the World Rankings, but Petkovic has shown enough to open 2021 to believe she could find a way to earn her place back inside the top 100. The serve has some room for improvement, but that might also be a part of getting more comfortable performing on the knee, and it will be a test for Shuai Zhang to get on top of the return without the rhythm of playing competitive tennis.
It also should be noted that Andrea Petkovic has been returning well to open 2021 and that part of her game has regularly been stronger than the one that Shuai Zhang brings to the court. The Chinese player ended last season struggling on the hard courts too and I do think this pick 'em contests favours the narrow underdog.
It is Andrea Petkovic who leads the head to head 3-1, although their most recent match was won by Shuai Zhang. That came on a hard court to level up at 1-1, but both of those matches have been close and that is where the extra time Petkovic has spent in competition in 2021 could just give her the edge.
Neither has played for almost a month so it is only a narrow advantage having the matches behind her, but I think Andrea Petkovic can see this one through in three sets.
Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: I like Frances Tiafoe and there have been times I have watched him play and wonder why he is not much higher up the World Rankings. For whatever reason, the American has not really been able to find the consistency he would have liked and the hard court numbers are pretty average when they are broken down without the emotion of how I feel about a particularly player.
It doesn't matter what I personally feel about Tiafoe and the potential he has, the numbers don't tend to lie.
In previous years the serve was important for Frances Tiafoe, but he seems to have been working on improving what has been a disappointing return game. However it has come with a slight drop in the service numbers as he is perhaps not working on that side of his game as much as he would have been and it does mean Tiafoe is barely above 0.500 in hard court matches played since 2018.
Some of those have come at the lower level in Challengers and Futures Tournaments, but the overall feeling about Tiafoe is that he blows hot and cold within events and sometimes even within single matches.
Frances Tiafoe takes on Stefanos Travaglia who has had a couple of strong runs on the hard courts before the Australian Open, but who has since lost his opening match at each of the last three hard court events played. The Italian has actually lost four matches in a row if you include his defeat in the Final of the tournament played in preparation for the Australian Open and it has been a difficult run for Travaglia.
To be fair, he isn't a bad hard court player and has to be respected for the kind of level he can bring to the court. The serve can be a big weapon for Stefano Travaglia, but he has not really played up to his previous level which may be down to the fact he has been up against better quality players this season compared with the usual level of events he takes in.
One of the defeats that Stefano Travaglia has suffered in the last four came against Frances Tiafoe when these two met at Melbourne Park and it turned into a routine win for the latter after a tough opening set. On that day Tiafoe won 50% of return points played, although Travaglia did play well enough to win 40% of return points despite the relatively one-sided win produced by the American player.
The first set was tight and competitive that day because Frances Tiafoe was struggling behind serve, but he was very good in the last couple of sets. It can be hard to trust him at times because of the inconsistency I have mentioned, but Stefanos Travaglia has struggled in recent matches and I think the higher Ranked player can frank the win at the Australian Open.
Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: No one who watched will forget the efforts of Hugo Gaston at the French Open last October as he reached the Fourth Round before narrowly being beaten by Dominic Thiem. It helped him reach a career high World Ranking, but the 20 year old is still trying to push himself forward as he accepts a Wild Card into the Miami Masters.
In 2021 Hugo Gaston has reached the Semi Final of a hard court event on the Challenger Tour, but he has not really produced a lot of wins at the next level. Early defeats in Montpellier and Marseille have been suffered on indoor hard courts, while Gaston has struggled to impose his serve in hard court matches in his career so far.
The strength of the Frenchman's game is in the return of serve and he breaks at such a percentage that it does feel like he has a chance in this match. Hugo Gaston takes on Dominik Koepfer who reached the Semi Final in Acapulco in the last tournament before the Miami Masters, but who has only produced a 4-3 record on the hard courts in the 2021 season.
The Austrian has perhaps had the steadier hard court numbers of the two players and he has been pretty effective on the return of serve which means he should be able to match Hugo Gaston's strength and have the better of the weakness. Where Dominik Koepfer has been able to win around 62% of his service points played and hold 76% of his service games, Hugo Gaston has a 59% and 73% mark respectively despite playing the majority of his matches on a level below the main ATP one.
Dominik Koepfer also has the slightest of better returning numbers with 39% of return points won compared to Hugo Gaston's 38% mark on the hard courts and I do think the confidence of the performances in Acapulco hold the former in good stead. Conditions in Miami can sometimes be a touch slower than the other hard courts on the Tour, which will favour Gaston, but Dominik Koepfer is playing well enough to earn at least two more breaks of serve than the Frenchman over the course of this match.
While not a guarantee, the feeling is that those breaks will be enough to cover this mark as Koepfer moves through to the Second Round.
Cameron Norrie - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: It has been as solid a start to 2021 for Cameron Norrie as it has been a poor one for Yoshihito Nishioka and the feeling is that the British player can get the better of this First Round match.
While Nishioka has won just two matches so far, Cameron Norrie has a Quarter Final and a Semi Final run under his belt, while the latter has also managed to earn his way through Qualifiers at other events to keep some momentum going. Cameron Norrie will be happy with his numbers having found some rhythm on the return side of the game which has enable him to back up the successes he has had behind the serve.
No one will dispute that there is room for improvement for Norrie who would love to get a little closer to his career best World Ranking which was achieved a couple of years ago. The 79% number of holding service games is decent, but nothing spectacular on the hard courts, but Cameron Norrie will be much happier with the almost 30% break percentage having won 41% of return points played on this surface this season.
Both of those are significant improvements on his 2020 numbers and Cameron Norrie seems to be playing the bigger points a little better which has seen him increase the percentage of service games being held compared with last season. Cameron Norrie will be tested by Yoshihito Nishioka who has shown he is a decent returner and will believe he can get after the Brit's serve.
Yoshihito Nishioka's real problems have been looking after the serve and he doesn't win a lot of cheap points which keeps him under some pressure. That has been the case this season, but a slight drop in the intensity on the return has meant it has been difficult for Nishioka to win matches and a real worry has to be how uncompetitive he has been in some of his defeats.
He has largely struggled on the return with only two of his eight matches played this season seeing Yoshihito Nishioka win at least 40% of return points played. It is not like the Japanese player and it has put him in a difficult position as he looks to improve his head to head lead over Cameron Norrie.
It is Yoshihito Nishioka who has won two of the three previous matches between these players, but they are 1-1 on the hard courts. The more recent of those matches was won by Cameron Norrie, although that was two years ago in Acapulco.
In that time the improvement looks to be in the Norrie performances and I think he is going to get the better of the return which should put him in a position to win the match and cover this mark. Yoshihito Nishioka is better than what he has shown in 2021, but he has struggled to impose his game on top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts since January 2020 including losing all six of those matches in 2021.
I expect that becomes all seven matches in the First Round in Miami and I think Cameron Norrie will win a few more of the big points to turn this match in his favour and cover this handicap spread set.
MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2021: 2-1, + 0.76 Units (6 Units Staked, + 12.67% Yield)
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