The Miami Masters continues on Thursday and the way the draws and Qualifiers have been scheduled means the majority of the Second Round matches set to be played have not had full markets put together at the time of writing.
I do have a couple of Tennis Picks that I have found from the matches set to be played, but I may add some more when the full markets are available with some matches of interest as long as the handicaps hit my marks.
I will also update the weekly totals at the Miami Masters on Thursday when completing this thread. Any remaining Tennis Picks will be added to the 'My Picks' section at the bottom of the post.
[THURSDAY UPDATE] Another positive day has got the Miami Masters up and running for the Tennis Picks and I have updated the tally from the first two days below.
I have also added a few selections to the 'My Picks' section below now the full Second Round matches in the WTA tournament have been put together. On Friday the Second Round of the ATP tournament will begin and the remainder of the WTA matches will be completed and I will have a post up for any Picks from Day 4 in the next post which should go live later today.
Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro over 22.5 games: We haven't seen much of Kevin Anderson since he was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and that lack of tennis could hurt him as he enters the Miami Masters in the First Round. Injuries have really put up a couple of blockades on Anderson's career over the last couple of years, although the big South African still has a huge serve that at least gives him a chance in matches.
Like Anderson, Thiago Monteiro has not played a hard court match since the Australian Open, but the Brazilian has made use of the Golden Swing clay tournaments that are played in South America between the first Grand Slam of the season and the first Masters 1000 events. The early form on the hard courts was encouraging for Monteiro though and it took a big effort from Andrey Rublev to get past him at the Australian Open, while he has a run to the Semi Final under his belt this season.
In 2020 Thiago Monteiro might have finished with a 7-9 record on the hard courts, a win number he is close to matching in 2021 already, but it was largely down to the struggles on the return of serve. He actually held 88% of service games played on hard courts in 2020 and he won 70% of points played and Monteiro is backing that up early in 2021 with a 90% mark and 69% mark in those categories respectively.
Conditions in Miami can be slower, but those service numbers will be encouraging for Thiago Monteiro. The numbers have also been important for a player who broke in 14% of return games played on the hard courts last season and has only managed to improve that to 17% in 2021, and Thiago Monteiro will be tested by the Kevin Anderson serve which remains a big weapon for the former top 5 Ranked player.
Kevin Anderson is 2-2 in his limited hard court matches played in 2021, but he has won 72% of service points played which has led to a 93% hold mark going into the Miami Masters. The South African has always been a largely limited return player though and he has broken in just 10% of return games played on the hard courts in the four matches played this season, while the best mark Anderson has produced in recent years over the course of a season is an 18% break percentage in hard court matches.
Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was clearly a serve-orientated match until Thiago Monteiro found himself struggling and had to retire in the second set.
Despite the slower conditions, I think this is a match that is likely going to be controlled by the serve of the two players as they face limited returners. That should see at least one tie-breaker needed and I would not be that surprised if all sets competed go very deep.
With that in mind I think Kevin Anderson and Thiago Monteiro will combine to cover this total games like in what looks a tight match that will be decided by the inches with tie-breakers possibly the only way to split them.
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: It wasn't exactly in the manner I would have expected, but Barbora Krejcikova was able to earn her place in the Second Round in Miami a couple of days ago. She just about held herself together to beat Anna Blinkova, but the Czech player will know she has to be a lot better if she is going to get the better of an ever improving Iga Swiatek.
Confidence will have been built from the run in Dubai when Barbora Krejcikova was beaten in the Final by Garbine Muguruza, but she did only beat one player inside the top 40 of the World Rankings at that tournament. That has been the test for Krejcikova on the Singles court as she has struggled to compete with the very best players on the Tour, but she has shown enough improvement to be respected.
There has been a definite increase in her level of performance in 2020 and 2021, but Iga Swiatek is a Grand Slam Champion and has looked to have taken that on board in a much stronger way than many first time winners in recent years.
She was a little disappointed with her performance in the Fourth Round loss to Simona Halep at the Australian Open, but Iga Swiatek has shown her mental strength to follow up by winning a WTA Title in Adelaide. Like Krejcikova, Swiatek was beaten by Garbine Muguruza in Dubai and she was not as competitive as the former in that match, but I do like the way the Pole has been performing on the hard courts.
The serve has been a big weapon for Iga Swiatek on this surface to open 2021, and it is the manner in which she has been able to look after the second serve which has impressed the most.
Iga Swiatek has a considerable advantage on the return of serve in this match and I do think that is going to be the key to the outcome. As well as Barbora Krejcikova has played, she has only won 39% of return points when playing against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season and Swiatek has been serving well enough to keep her at bay in this one before imposing her own return game on the match.
You don't really want to underestimate the Barbora Krejcikova first serve, but I expect Iga Swiatek to really attack the second serve. The feeling is that Swiatek will have a real edge when the rallies develop with the level she has shown on this surface and I think it is enough for the Pole to come through and cover the mark.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Masters Update: 5-2, + 4.18 Units (14 Units Staked, + 29.86% Yield)
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