Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 8th February)

Big titles are going to be won this weekend beginning with the event in Abu Dhabi on Saturday and ending with the other tournaments, including Rotterdam, on Sunday.

Qualifiers have already begun for the WTA Doha tournament, which is the first big WTA 1000 event to be played in the Middle East this month, while the first of the Golden Swing events is played on the ATP Tour in Argentina.

Friday was a disappointment for the Tennis Picks with the sole selection going down in three competitive sets, but it has still been a solid enough week and finishing with a flourish is the challenge to end strong.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v Mattia Bellucci: Italian tennis has been thriving over the last couple of years and Mattia Bellucci has already secured a new career high World Ranking thanks to his run to the Rotterdam Semi Final. Another upset would see Bellucci enter the top 60 of the World Rankings and wins over Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have given the young player a huge amount of confidence.

Credit has to be given to Mattia Bellucci for playing the clutch moments as well as he has, particularly when he has been put under pressure on his own serve.

In the last two matches against Medvedev and Tsitsipas, Mattia Bellucci has faced 16 Break Points and he has managed to save 15 of those to earn the upsets over two players Ranked inside the top 12.

The lefty serve is traditionally one that orthodox players have struggled to deal with and that has been the case in 2025 with Bellucci managing to hold 90% of his service games played. That number is up at 95% for the tournament here in Rotterdam, although Mattia Bellucci is going to know that the challenge presented by Alex De Minaur on the return is another tough one to deal with.

Strong runs in Rotterdam have become a part of Alex De Minaur's early season form and that is the case again in 2025 with three very strong wins on the board. The draw has opened up for the Australian, but Alex De Minaur has taken advantage and he has been a dominant winner in all three matches.

He has served as well as Mattia Bellucci, but the edge for De Minaur is how well he has been returning and he is capable of putting the Italian under pressure by making sure he gets his teeth into rallies.

You cannot overlook how well Bellucci has handled the pressure against big names already this week, but he will need to keep that going and someone like Alex De Minaur is going to test him mentally and physically. As mentioned earlier this week, De Minaur has been very good when playing those he is expected to beat and the World Number 8 will begin next week higher than Novak Djokovic in the World Rankings with a win in this Semi Final.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but Alex De Minaur has been playing really well this week and wearing opponents down and he can do the same with Mattia Bellucci.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.54 Units (5 Units Staked, + 10.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 6th February)

The tournaments that are played in the Middle East tend to be concluded on Saturday and so we are already at the Quarter Final stage in Abu Dhabi, while the Second Round is completed in Rotterdam on Thursday.

For the second day in a row, there is one selection from each event in what has been a considered return to the Tennis Picks following the solid returns from the Australian Open.

Bigger events are coming up through the remainder of the month, which may offer up more selections, but we will see how that pans out when the tournaments come around and the only focus for now is on the Picks that are being made.

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The return to the Tour after becoming a mother could not have gone much better for Belinda Bencic and she taking full advantage of playing under a Protected Ranking or a Wild Card.

Last month she was able to surprisingly reach the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before losing to a top player in Coco Gauff and that effectively halved her World Ranking.

This week she entered the tournament in Abu Dhabi as the World Number 157, but two wins over top 52 Ranked opponents has helped Belinda Bencic reach the Quarter Final and her return continues to pick up serious momentum.

Next up is Marketa Vondrousova, who has also won two matches here and who also would have entered the Abu Dhabi tournament with something to prove.

Injury meant the World Number 37 was not able to play at the Australian Open, but Marketa Vondrousova has won all four sets played in this tournament and wins over Emma Raducanu and Yulia Putintseva have to be respected. Winning in the manner she has only makes Vondrousova more dangerous and any player that has a Grand Slam in the trophy cabinet can put together the tennis to win events like this.

The run has been surprising considering an injury suffered last month in Adelaide was enough to keep Marketa Vondrousova from attempting to play in the opening Grand Slam of 2025. The fact is that she had also missed all events in 2024 following an early exit as the defending Champion at Wimbledon, and both players will have something to prove.

Matches between these players have been competitive in the past, although this is the first time Belinda Bencic and Marketa Vondrousova are facing off since 2021 when they met twice in a short space of time at the Tokyo Olympics and Cincinnati Masters.

Both of those matches were won by Belinda Bencic and she does look the more likely winner of this Quarter Final on the form displayed over the last few weeks.

The first serve is going to be important for both players, but Bencic has looked a little more capable of protecting the second serve and that could prove to be the difference in a very close match. One concern for both is the amount of tennis being played in a short space of time having spent so much time away from the Tour, but Belinda Bencic has been playing with the confidence of a solid Australian Open behind her and she can edge out Marketa Vondrousova into the Abu Dhabi Semi Final ahead of big events in Doha and Dubai.

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Tallon Griekspoor: After watching Paula Badosa make such a big impact at the Australian Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to take some inspiration into turning his own form around.

The First Round loss in Melbourne would have really stung and Stefanos Tsitsipas has fallen out of the top ten in the World Rankings, while he also had a difficult year on the hard courts in 2024.

Beating the World Number 138 in the First Round in Rotterdam might not be a match that will live long in the memory, but it could be key for Stefanos Tsitsipas to just have something to build upon in a busy six weeks before the Tour moves onto the clay court part of the season.

This Second Round match is going to be much tougher when going up against Tallon Griekspoor, who is going to be backed by the home fans and who has enjoyed his recent visits to Rotterdam. Only Jannik Sinner has found a way to stop the Griekspoor runs in the last couple of seasons, but the World Number 1 is not involved this week and the win over Matteo Berrettini showed how effective the World Number 43 can be on an indoor hard court.

His serve can be a huge weapon on the indoor courts and that was the key for Tallon Griekspoor to just get the better of Matteo Berrettini, although the Italian will be frustrated by his defeat.

One big issue that Tallon Griekspoor has is getting enough out of the return, but he will be confident in his ability to win matches when getting into tie-breakers and hoping the scoreboard pressure from his own serving can crack an opponent.

This has to be a concern for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has not been serving as well as he can, but who did put a strong display on the board in his First Round win.

He will have the mental edge having crushed Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets as the Australian Open two years ago and it was a match where Stefanos Tsitsipas produced the much stronger serving. That will be the challenge for him again and this is expected to be competitive in front of Tallon Griespoor's fans, but Stefanos Tsitsipas can find a way to edge past the home hope.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.17 Units (2 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 5th February)

The sporting world never slows down and it is Simona Halep who has become the latest former Grand Slam Champion that has announced her retirement from tennis.

As the Romanian told the home fans, she has achieved all that she set out to do and winning the French Open and Wimbledon and also earning the World Number 1 Ranking and Simona Halep has to be credited for the career she has put together.

Injury has perhaps hastened the exit from the sport, but Halep sounded pretty happy about her decision and that is all any player can do when moving onto the next stage of their career.

The tournaments being played this week continue on Wednesday and there are a couple of selections from the events in Abu Dhabi and Rotterdam.

Alex De Minaur got the week off to a winning start, but hopefully that can be backed up with a couple more winners to just keep things ticking over.

Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: Reaching the Quarter Final in Adelaide and following up with a Fourth Round run at the Australian Open means World Number 11 Daria Kasatkina has made a positive start to the season.

Twelve months ago, Daria Kasatkina reached the Final here in Abu Dhabi before a couple of disappointing early exits in Doha and Dubai and this is a month where she will be looking to move back into the top ten of the World Rankings.

An administrative error has led to some headlines that Daria Kasatkina would have preferred to avoid- her name was placed alongside the Spanish flag during the draw ceremony and that led to some believing Kasatkina may have switched allegiance from Russia to Spain, which has since been denied and an apology issued to the player.

It was already going to be difficult for Kasatkina to return home and this has not really helped at all, so it will be a challenge for the player to focus on her tennis.

The hope has to be that Daria Kasatkina will benefit from this match taking place in the middle of the week and a few days after the draw ceremony had been run. Her performances on the hard courts this season and over the last twelve months makes Daria Kasatkina a solid performer on the surface and she will be expecting to get the better of Ashlyn Krueger.

The 20 year old American is an improving player on the Tour and reached a new career high World Ranking at the end of last month.

A tough three set win in the First Round will have given Ashlyn Krueger a boost and she has reached the Quarter Final in both Brisbane and Adelaide before losing early at the Australian Open. The draw was a tough one in Melbourne against Ajla Tomljanovic who had the fans behind her, and the next step for Ashlyn Krueger in her development is to find more successes when facing the better players on the Tour.

Over the last twelve months, the American has an 8-12 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents, and the key will be improving the returning aspect of her tennis in those matches.

She will feel she can get her teeth into the Daria Kasatkina service games, but this is a test for Ashlyn Krueger having lost to this opponent in the Second Round in Abu Dhabi last year. In that match it was Daria Kasatkina who took her chances when the Break Points were earned and her hard court performances over the last month do give the higher Ranked player an edge.

Wins over Marta Kostyuk and Paula Badosa last month in Adelaide means Krueger deserves to be given a lot of respect and especially having had a win under her belt here in Abu Dhabi.

However, Daria Kasatkina may still have an edge on the hard courts between these players and the World Number 11 can win this Second Round match and put the controversy from earlier in the week behind her.

Jiri Lehecka-Hubert Hurkacz over 23.5 games: A serious injury hampered Hubert Hurkacz through the second half of the 2024 season, even if he was somehow able to play through the pain.

He did reach the Quarter Final in Cincinnati, but Hubert Hurkacz played just five more matches in 2024 and the off-season was important for the World Number 21. Some solid performances were produced at the United Cup, but Hubert Hurkacz will be disappointed with the lack of an impact at the Australian Open before the First Round win here in Rotterdam.

This is going to be a very tough match for Hubert Hurkacz against an opponent who is close to cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings for the first time.

Last month Jiri Lehecka was able to win a title in Brisbane and he reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open before being beaten by Novak Djokovic in a more competitive match than the straight sets defeat would have suggested. The current World Number 24 was an impressive opening winner in Rotterdam and Jiri Lehecka has really been making the best use out of his serve.

It has led to 92% of his service games being held and Jiri Lehecka will feel he can certainly keep on top of the Hubert Hurkacz return, which has been something of a weakness for the Polish player.

The 4-4 record on the hard courts is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz has only broken in 13% of return games played and that number is not going to be offering much encouragement against the serve he is facing in the Second Round on an indoor hard court.

This may mean there is some pressure on Hubert Hurkacz to serve well, although he has shown himself to be a player that can do that with 90% of service games held on this surface over the last month.

Jiri Lehecka and Hubert Hurkacz met here in Rotterdam twelve months ago and there was just a single break of serve in a three set match with both dominant behind that shot. More of the same can be expected when they meet again in the Second Round in 2025 and there is every chance that both of the opening two sets may need tie-breakers to separate the two.

Any need for a third set should see the total games line comfortably surpassed, but the serving power of Lehecka and Hurkacz could see this inflated line beaten even in a straight sets win for either player.

MY PICKS: Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Jiri Lehecka-Hubert Hurkacz Over 23.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 0.83 Units (1 Unit Staked, + 83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 4th February)

The first Grand Slam is in the books and there would have been plenty of people who would have backed Jannik Sinner to retain the title he won in Melbourne in 2024.

The World Number 1 underlined his position as the top hard court player after picking up a third straight Grand Slam on that surface and he is now enjoying some time away from the court having withdrawn from the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam.

He is expected to return later in the month when the Tour moves into the Middle East where a couple of big ATP tournaments are played in and around the WTA events.

Once again it was the women's event that created the bigger upset at the last Grand Slam with Madison Keys winning a Major for the first time in her career.

All credit has to be given to any player that can beat the top two players in the Rankings in consecutive matches as Madison Keys did and the American has to also be credited for being able to hold herself together as well as she did in the Semi Final and Final against Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka respectively.

Can Madison Keys kick on and win more big tournaments? It isn't beyond her talent, but inconsistency has been a feature of her career and Keys is also going to be playing with a bigger target on her back, which has been tough for first time Champions to deal with in the recent past.

All of the big names are heading to the WTA 1000 events in Doha and Dubai, which begin next week, although Madison Keys has decided to withdraw from the first of those events through a hamstring injury. That does increase the likelihood of Keys next being out on the court when the US hard court tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami are played next month.

There are a couple of big events being played this week and it is an important month on the Tennis Tour.

A decision was made to have a break after the Australian Open, if only to reset and in a week where Davis Cup and smaller events were taking place.

The 2025 Australian Open was night and day compared with the 2024 results and having a positive foundation to build upon is clearly a much better position to be in compared with twelve months ago.

It may not be a week in which Tennis Picks are made every day, especially with my tighter margins used at the Australian Open, but there is a lot of players out on the courts and plenty of matches to get through.

Of course it is most important to put some winners together and it is important to build on the performance from the Slam in Melbourne.

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v David Goffin: The home Grand Slam is always going to mean more to any player on the Tour and it was a very big moment for Alex De Minaur when he found his way into the Australian Open Quarter Final for the first time.

Despite that, the overall feeling out of the tournament may be one of disappointment after barely being able to lay a glove on Jannik Sinner in a very convincing defeat.

The run in Melbourne has pushed Alex De Minaur back into the top eight of the World Rankings, but the key for the Australian is to build on his performance. The Ranking has been built on the fact that Alex De Minaur tends to beat the players he should, but this is the first match since that Quarter Final defeat in front of his friends and family and we will get to find out how much that has affected the World Number 8.

Twelve months ago, Alex De Minaur was the Runner Up in Rotterdam having lost the Final against nemesis Jannik Sinner, but that run will at least mean he is returning to a favourable court.

First up is veteran David Goffin who is a former World Number 7, but at 34 years old is now outside the top 50 in the Rankings and who is having a tough opening to the 2025 season.

Four matches have been played by David Goffin this season and he has lost all of those, although the Belgian did at least win a set for the first time last week in Montpellier. The real concern for Goffin has to be the fact that all of the defeats have been against players Ranked lower than himself and now he has to face a top ten opponent who has been playing with a lot of confidence, even if the last time we saw him on the court was in a horribly one-sided defeat.

David Goffin is really struggling to protect his serve and someone like Alex De Minaur is going to make him play a lot- he is only holding 56% of service games in his four matches this year.

To make matters tougher, David Goffin has to overcome a 0-5 professional head to head record against Alex De Minaur, which includes losing ten of the eleven sets played. They actually met here in Rotterdam last year and De Minaur won very easily, while David Goffin has only held 50% of the service games played against the Australian in his career, which suggests he is going to have a hard time turning things around in 2025.

The Alex De Minaur serve is not a big weapon for him against the top players on the Tour, but over the last twelve months, he has held 85% of service games played on the hard courts when facing players Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

With the head to head in his favour, Alex De Minaur can grind down David Goffin in this First Round match and he can cover this relatively big spread. In their last three matches, David Goffin has won three, four and four games and two of those matches have been right here in Rotterdam where the higher Ranked player can find a way to cruise through to the next Round.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 27-14, + 15.40 Units (79 Units Staked, + 19.49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 18th February)

The WTA Dubai 1000 event is starting on Sunday and the three ATP Finals from the tournaments that began last week are to be played on the day too.

Picks from the three Finals will be placed here when the markets are released, but the sole selection from Dubai can be read below.

Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: After a decent showing at the United Cup in preparation for the Australian Open, Caroline Garcia might have been hoping to have had more positive results behind her as we get into the big tournament in Dubai.

It has not worked out nearly as well as that and the former World Number 4 has been beaten in four of her last five matches, while Caroline Garcia has suffered early defeats in both Abu Dhabi and Doha ahead of this WTA 1000 event.

To be fair to the Frenchwoman, she has had a couple of tough matches to deal with and her last three defeats have been by very tight margins.

The First Round draw in Dubai offers Caroline Garcia a good opportunity to at least snap her losing run in this match against Ashlyn Krueger, the 19 year old American who has yet to break into the top 70 of the World Rankings.

Ashlyn Krueger has struggled to really make an impact against the stronger players on the WTA Tour as she tries to make her tennis work at this level. One positive for Krueger is that she has put a number of wins together in Abu Dhabi and Doha, albeit in the Qualifying Rounds, which will at least give her a bit of belief on the court.

However, the record over the last twelve months against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been very disappointing for Ashlyn Krueger and shows the kind of gap she will still need to bridge in this match.

In that time span, Ashlyn Krueger has a 1-8 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and her second serve has been really vulnerable. It has been tough for her to recover in those matches with the return not being as effective as the American would like and there is no doubt that Caroline Garcia can be a very good server when feeling at her best.

On current form it is hard to know if we are going to see that, but Caroline Garcia should still be good enough to find her way through to the Second Round at this big tournament.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The Final in Rotterdam looks a good one for the fans, but it is hard to oppose the Australian Open Champion.

Jannik Sinner has played well here this week and this is a player looking to rack up the World Ranking points as he bids to challenge for the top spot at the end of the year. Winning one Slam puts him well on the way, but winning titles at the ATP 500 and 1000 level will back up those performances in the majors and the Italian is looking in imperious form.

Take nothing away from Alex De Minaur's run to the Final and the very positive start he has had to 2024, but this has been a bad match up for him.

On a faster court, it is going to be very difficult for De Minaur to impact a serve against which he has only managed to find a break in 10% of return games in their six match previous head to head. In the hard court head to head, that number drops further and it will mean the Australian faces a lot of pressure on his own serve.

Again, take nothing away from how Alex De Minaur has been playing this week.

However, the serve was challenged by Andrey Rublev and David Goffin, while Jannik Sinner has really found a way to neutralise those return points and wear down De Minaur.

Jannik Sinner has broken in 23% of return games played in Rotterdam this week, but his numbers against Alex De Minaur have been at 38% in previous hard court matches. That can show up here as Sinner takes home another title in 2024 and continues to show that he is certainly up alongside Carlos Alcaraz as a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion to take over from the Big Three era.

MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 2.40 Units (36 Units Staked, - 6.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 16th February)

It is never that much fun watching a match where the fine edges move against the Tennis Picks and especially not in a season where it seems to be happening far more often than it should do.

For example, on Thursday the two Picks from Doha ended up a combined six points fewer than their opponents, but both were beaten in straight sets.

While that is frustrating, it does not help the mood to see the two other selections made win THIRTY more points, yet have to struggle to get over the line. This just sums up the early part of the 2024 season and it just feels like there is very little fortune landing on the side of the Picks.

Bad Picks are not going to be ignored, but it is very strange to see so many dominating the numbers and still not being able to close the door on the matches as would be expected.

Turning around this inconsistent week is still the main ambition to start moving back in a positive direction, but it has been a tough slog. Poor selections would actually be a situation that could be resolved, but it is much harder to find the changes needed when so many players have been a point or two away from doing what is expected of them, only to then blow matches by losing the big points time after time.

Below you can see my early selections from the Quarter Final/Semi Final matches to be played at the four tournaments running this week.

Any further Picks from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach will be added to the thread on Friday morning.

Marcos Giron - 3.5 games v Patrick Kypson: It has been a positive time back in the United States for Marcos Giron who reached the Final in Dallas last week and has maintained strong form in Delray Beach.

With big events to come up in Indian Wells and Miami, Marcos Giron has to be feeling very good about where his tennis is right now.

Facing up against Patrick Kypson will be a challenge considering the young American has won a Challenger event in Cleveland in early February and he has won two matches here in Delray Beach. Taking full advantage of his Wild Card, Patrick Kypson has won back to back matches in straight sets and he has a serve that can be very dangerous.

The numbers have only slightly dipped when Patrick Kypson has faced top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months and so this is a match that Marcos Giron has to take very seriously.

However, the veteran in this match up has been playing at a really high level and that could be too much for Patrick Kypson to deal with over the length of time needed on the court.

If he serves well, Patrick Kypson will pose a threat, but Marcos Giron has been in strong returning form over the last couple of weeks and may find the breaks he needs to cover this line.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It has been a really strong run in the first two Middle East tournaments for Elena Rybakina and she is continuing to exert plenty of pressure on her opponents.

Serving as well as she has been, Elena Rybakina will be looking to keep that going against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The latter has had a strong run in the tournament too, but has not been nearly as convincing in her performances- the fine margins are landing in Pavlyuchenkova's side of the court, but she is going to need more than that if she is going to upset the World Number 4.

It is a big spread and especially if Pavlyuchenkova serves as well as she can.

An aggressive style is dangerous if Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is feeling her tennis, but you do have to feel that the match is going to be played on the Rybakina racquet.

Over the last couple of weeks, Elena Rybakina has not just been winning matches, but she has been winning matches really well and she can earn a measure of revenge for a French Open defeat to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in May 2021.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Alexander Shevchenko: He is 23 years old and heading back towards a career high World Ranking so the confidence will be in a pretty good place before Alexander Shevchenko thinks about what he will consider to be the best win of his career.

The Second Round saw Shevchenko get the better of Holger Rune and he has shown solid resliency this week in Rotterdam by winning both matches as an underdog. Both have been won in a final set decider too and that will give Shevchenko the belief that he is never out of this Quarter Final.

He is up against veteran Grigor Dimitrov who has enjoyed a very strong start to 2024.

Last week he came up short in the Marseille Final, but Dimitrov won a title last month and he has looked in pretty good nick in his two wins in Rotterdam.

The serve is expected to be an important weapon after Alexander Shevchenko struggled with his returning consistency against Holger Rune.

It is a big spread when you consider how Alexander Shevchenko has been serving in Rotterdam, but the scoreboard pressure could help Dimitrov reach yet another Semi Final on the Tour in 2024.

Tommy Paul - 1.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The only addition from the remaining Quarter Finals in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires is this selection from the opening match in Florida.

Two players who have been enjoying playing the hard court events in the United States meet in this Quarter Final and both Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul have to be feeling good about the tennis being played.

Tommy Paul won the title in Dallas last week and earned a Bye through to the Second Round in Delray Beach- his three hour win over Alex Michelsen may have sapped some of the energy, and that time spent on court is the one factor that has to reduce enthusiasm for the pick.

He is also facing an opponent in Jordan Thompson who has been winning matches with a real level of comfort over the last two weeks, although the Australian may have benefited from the draws to some extent. Three of the four wins he has produced in Dallas and Delray Beach have been against opponents Ranked Number 149 or even lower down the Rankings, although the win over Dan Evans deserves some respect.

It does mean Jordan Thompson is 4-4 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024 and his return game remains a relative weakness that can be exploited by Tommy Paul as long as he is still holding some energy in reserve.

The Thompson serve is a big weapon, but it did falter a couple of times in his defeat to Ben Shelton last week and Tommy Paul is a better return player compared with his compatriot. Of course he has played a lot more tennis than most in the last couple of weeks and that could show up, but Tommy Paul looks in a position to earn his first victory over Jordan Thompson on the Tour having lost their previous meeting on a grass court in the Netherlands.

Big serving should shorten the points and that should help Tommy Paul as he bids to reach another Semi Final on the United States hard courts.

MY PICKS: Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.42 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 14th February)

Despite the huge amount of matches scheduled for Tuesday, an illness meant I was not able to really put in the kind of research I would want before making a Tennis Pick (even if this season has been one in which all the research in the world has meant very little to the outcomes).

There were a couple of matches that had appealed, but ultimately those failed to convince me completely and so it felt like a better idea to sit back and allow the day to move through with a bit more information always handy.

Another busy day is in the offing on Wednesday as the big tournament in Doha moves into the Third Round, while the ATP tournaments being played in Rotterdam, Delray Beach and Buenos Aires really begin to get into a roll.

In general the threads for these selections will be longer, but it cannot always be the case.

On Wednesday you can see the Picks below and any selections from Buenos Aires and Delray Beach will be added on the day.

MY PICKS: Marketa Vondrousova @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 6th)

The late finishes at the ATP events in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires has meant needing to wait for the Semi Final markets to be put together and that means I have had to wait to put my Semi Final Picks together.

The Final in Doha looks a good one on paper, but I can't really pick a winner between Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, two former multiple time Grand Slam Champions who have made a very strong start to 2021. That is particularly the case for Muguruza who had Match Points to beat Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, form that has been franked by the run Osaka had to the title in Melbourne.

After a slow start and some frustrations, the last two days have turned around the form on the selections and it has justified my belief that the system to identify Picks is not a major issue. Adjustments always need to be made and slight tweaks, but ultimately my feeling was that there was more bad luck than bad identification that was causing the start to the 2021 season.

Too many times the inches had just gone against those players I had picked, but it happens over the course of a long Tour and I think the key was to remain largely grounded. If Borna Coric had taken the multiple Break Points he had created in the second set against Kei Nishikori it could have been a clean sweep on Friday, but I am always happy when a positive outcome is seen at the end of the day.

As I have mentioned, the lack of time between the completion of the Quarter Final matches and the start of the Semi Final matches means I will not have full analysis written down below.

Instead you can see my selections for the day with the tournaments winding down before moving onto five new spots next week.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-16, - 0.66 Units (68 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 5th)

I won't deny that it has been another difficult week with some of the selections being bad ones, but some being afflicted by bad luck, although they add together to give us the same result either way.

At least Thursday proved to be a little better and gives me something to build upon going through the weekend and into the next set of tournaments that are going to begin on Monday. I will add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires Quarter Finals to this thread on Friday once the markets are out, but you can read my analysis of a couple of the selections below.

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: 2021 has started really well for Jessica Pegula and she is beginning to make a splash on the WTA Tour. The numbers last season were not bad at all, but this year there feels like another step in her development has been taken and her run through to the Semi Final in Doha has to be respected.

It comes after a good showing in Australia and Jessica Pegula came through the Qualifiers here despite the improvement in the World Ranking meaning she should be able to earn direct entry into these events going forward. A new career best Ranking is around the corner, but the American would love to earn that by winning the title here.

The layers are struggling to separate Pegula and Petra Kvitova and that has to be down to the manner in which the former has cruised through the draw. It may also take into account the tough Quarter Final Petra Kvitova had to get through when seeing off Anett Kontaveit in three sets and she is going to have to serve a lot better if she is going to win this match.

Petra Kvitova is very dangerous because she seems to have her eye in as far as the return of serve goes and I expect her to challenge Jessica Pegula much more than Karolina Pliskova was able to do in the Quarter Final. The last two opponents have not really been able to get after the Pegula serve as they would have liked, but it hasn't been the perfect weapon for the slight underdog in this match and I do think Petra Kvitova will edge the match.

They played a really close match at the US Open last September and the straight sets win for Petra Kvitova doesn't tell the whole story. The inches went her way to secure the win, but I think the Czech player will have enough from the return to edge this one too.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Spending a little over two hours on court won't be a major problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he won his Second Round match to move into Friday's Quarter Final. This looks another big hitting match in front of the Number 2 Seed in Rotterdam who is also the favourite to win the tournament now that Daniil Medvedev has exited the event.

He will need to do plenty of big hitting of his own if Tsitsipas is going to hold off Karen Khachanov who has won both his matches here relatively comfortably. The victory over Stan Wawrinka will have given Khachanov huge confidence, and he has yet to drop serve in the week on an indoor hard court that should suit his game.

Serving as well as he has seems to have opened up the return game and Karen Khachanov has been on his best form on that side of his game. However, you do have to wonder how much success he will have against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won 71% of his service points played in Rotterdam and held 89% of his service games played.

There is a slight concern that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been broken three times in the two wins so far this week, while he has not been returning as well his opponent, but he has enjoyed the head to head with Karen Khachanov.

Both players are capable of strong serving, but in the two wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Karen Khachanov there has been a significant edge to the Greek player when it comes to the return of serve. Their last meeting in October 2018 was a close one that barely went in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think he is the slightly better player at this stage of their career and I think that will show up here.

I expect both players to run through some of their service games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may find the inspiration to turn a set in his favour and I think he will work his way through to the Semi Final with a solid win.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-15, - 5.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 9.89% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 4th)

I have to say I am a little frustrated with the amount of times I have seen the player I have picked to win a match not only lose the first set, but to lose it by a couple of breaks of serve.

It has immediately put the selection in a difficult spot, but it is becoming doubly irritating the amount of times the said pick comes back to win in relatively routine fashion.

Putting these together suggests the actual identification of Tennis Picks is still working, but the little bit of luck that is always needed seems to have deserted me so far this season. Seeing a selection lose the one of the first two sets isn't the issue, but seeing a selection continually lose more games than they win in those two sets despite turning matches around is baffling.

It is frustrating, but you have to stick with the process and believe that it is impossible for that kind of situation to keep getting the better of you. Last week I found so many players winning matches by a game or two below the handicap mark because of the early setbacks and it has been more of the same so far this week.

At the end of the tournaments being played this week I will have a look back and see how I could have made the adjustments needed, but I don't want to move away from a method that has found the right winner far more often than not. Those inches going against me is just part of the deal in a long season, but the key is to not lose early faith unless it becomes a trend that travels through a number of weeks.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Lukas Klein: In the last few seasons Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has proven to be a solid clay court player rather than a spectacular one and his early defeat in Cordoba would have hurt. He will be looking to show a lot more about the kind of level he can produce on the surface when taking part in a second home tournament, this time in Buenos Aires, and the top Seed is a big favourite to win this Second Round match.

You can understand why Schwartzman is the favourite when he takes on Lukas Klein who is Ranked closer to 300 than 200 in the World Rankings. The 22 year old has come through three Qualifying Rounds and upset the World Number 103 in the First Round, but this is the first time Klein will have taken on someone ranked inside the top 100 and his clay court numbers do not leap off the page.

That is not to say he is not having a strong week, but this is a considerable step up for someone who has average numbers on the surface despite operating at a lower level than this ATP event is being played at. All credit has to be given to Lukas Klein for the level he is showing this week, but the serve is one that can be attacked and his going up against an opponent who has shown he is a solid returner at a much higher level than Klein is used to playing at.

The key to the match and how 'comfortable' it is for the home top Seed is how well Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can manage his own serve. That has largely been a weakness for the top Seed on the clay courts, but Lukas Klein may not have the consistency to stay with Schwartzman for long periods of this match and that is where I do think the Argentinian can take control of this match.

I am a little concerned with Schwartzman's serving which can lead to him dropping sets by wide margins if he is slightly off his game, but being at home should motivate a better performance than the one put together in Cordoba last week. Any Qualifier can be dangerous and the Golden Swing tournaments have a habit of producing players that come alive and then disappear for the rest of the season, but it would be a massive surprise if Lukas Klein is able to win this match.

Unless he serves at a level that has not been seen from him in his career, Lukas Klein is likely to be put under pressure by Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and it could lead to a relatively straight-forward win for the favourite.

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 games v Gianluca Mager: A battling display was enough for Gianluca Magr to make it through to the Second Round in Buenos Aires, but he was a little fortunate to get by compatriot Salvatore Caruso in the First Round. He faced three more points than Caruso, but Gianluca Mager was able to play the big points a little better and that was enough to secure a straight sets win, although it could have easily gone another way.

Make no mistake that Gianluca Mager will have to be a lot better if he is going to reach the Quarter Final here and I think it will be a challenge for the Italian.

Pablo Andujar was a strong winner in the First Round, but he is a player that has consistently played his best tennis on the clay courts. The level he can reach is certainly higher than Gianluca Mager's and I think their head to head shows that Pablo Andujar is pretty comfortable in this match up and especially on the red dirt.

The Spaniard has won both previous clay court matches between the players and he has dominated the return of serve in those matches which has proven to be the key for Andujar. The return of serve has been an important part of the game for Pablo Andujar in the last couple of seasons on the clay courts and I think that is going to be the deciding factor in this Second Round match on the Golden Swing.

Neither player has had a lot of competitive time on the red dirt so far this season, but I think Pablo Andujar is the superior player on the surface and I think he will be able to show that over a couple of hours on the courts.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 8.48 Units (46 Units Staked, - 18.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 3rd)

Tuesday has been one of those days when an early night is needed- like many, it has been one of those days where you miss the life we led a year ago and enduring a third lockdown has been arguably more difficult than the first two.

In this thread I am placing the Tennis Picks from the ATP Rotterdam, WTA Doha and WTA Lyon matches that are scheduled to be played on Wednesday.

I will update the weekly record and and any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires tournament on the day when the schedule for the tournament has been released.

A strong start to the Tuesday Tennis Picks was replaced by a poor ending and it means I have yet to turn this week around. Hopefully that begins on Wednesday as the Second Round gets going at most tournaments and I have added three selections from the Buenos Aires tournament being played this week with those matches starting much later in the day compared with the other three events.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 2nd)

The week started off pretty poorly, but two late winners has at least prevented serious damage being done on Monday as four new tournaments begin.

There are plenty of matches scheduled on Tuesday through the day with the majority of the First Round completed. The Qualifiers are done and those who have made it into the main draws will be looking to keep the upsets going, while those tournaments scheduled in the Middle East are the exception to the rule when it comes to Finals being set for Sunday and that always means a busy week in those events.

I've written down some of my thoughts for the ATP Rotterdam Picks for Tuesday and added the selections from WTA Doha, WTA Lyon and ATP Buenos Aires below.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are some big decisions that will need to be made by the players who represent Australia as they look to rejoin the Tour in 2021 with many missing the entirety of 2020 following the suspension of the Tours. Quarantine issues back home will mean the majority of those players will be living out of their suitcases for the foreseeable future and two Australians will meet thousands of miles away from home in the First Round in Rotterdam.

Alex De Minaur and John Millman will know all they need to about the other, and it is the higher Ranked Australian who will be heading into this match as the favourite. He enjoyed a much better month than John Millman who has made a stop in Singapore where he suffered his latest loss on the way to Europe.

Both are solid hard court players, but confidence has to be an issue for Millman having lost three matches in a row and the sole win coming against an opponent Ranked outside the top 400 in the World Rankings. Last week in Singapore John Millman was beaten by a fellow Australian Matthew Ebden, and his numbers have been pretty poor from the small sample of matches played on the hard courts in 2021.

Those numbers are considerably weaker than Alex De Minaur's numbers so far this season and I do think that makes a difference in this First Round match. Where Alex De Minaur has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts this season, John Millman is at 70%, while the former has also been the much more efficient returner so far.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Alex De Minaur has really been on top of those players he has faced outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on this surface. His numbers have backed that up and I do think he will be able to get the better of his compatriot who De Minaur beat for the loss of four games in September 2019.

No one will deny how competitive John Millman can be, even when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour, and his return game can be a leveller. However I think Alex De Minaur does everything a little bit better than Millman and that can produce a solid win.

Karen Khachanov v Stan Wawrinka: These two have already faced each other in Rotterdam this week and that came on the Doubles court as Karen Khachanov partnered Andrey Rublev to a win over Stan Wawrinka and Dusan Lajovic. It feels like a good chance for Karen Khachanov to beat Stan Wawrinka on the Singles court too in what is likely to be a big hitting match, but one where the younger player may have too much strength for the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

There is no doubting how dangerous Stan Wawrinka can be and his serve continues to be a big weapon for the Swiss player and especially on the hard courts. He will look to put some pressure on Khachanov with a big serving day in conditions where it could be aided by the surface, but Wawrinka will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more consistent if he is going to get back to the kind of level he once displayed.

The serve is important, but it has some pressure on it because of the way Stan Wawrinka has struggled with the return aspect of his game on the hard courts. In the four matches played so far in 2021 the return hasn't been too bad, but in the last three seasons Stan Wawrinka has struggled to break serve with less than 19% of return games resulting in a break.

It is an aspect of his game which will be severely tested by Karen Khachanov who has consistently won around 66% of service points played on the hard courts. His numbers have been slightly stronger to open 2021 as Khachanov has put a Semi Final run and a Third Round run at the Australian Open in the books.

Like his opponent, Karen Khachanov is pretty comfortable in what he can do behind serve, but he also has his issues when it comes to breaks on the hard courts. It is perhaps the main reason this match has been set as a pick 'em, but in recent years Karen Khachanov has had the slightly superior returning numbers which could prove to be the difference.

Stan Wawrinka does lead the head to head 2-1, but the last of those meetings was won by Karen Khachanov who would have felt hard done by when losing the match prior to the win in Canada. The Russian has had the slightly better success when it comes to the return of serve in their head to head matches and he has created 11 break points compared with Stan Wawrinka's 6 break points in the last two matches.

You can't ignore the fact that Stan Wawrinka has been a little more clinical with his chances when they have come up, but winning their last match will help the Karen Khachanov mindset ahead of this match. I think he can level the head to head with the serving edge going to him in Rotterdam and I will look for Khachanov to win this pick 'em match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: The defeat in the Australian Open Semi Final would have stung Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially the manner in which he was beaten, but this is a star player in the making. The win over Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final showed what Stefanos Tsistipas is capable of and he will be looking for a strong final month on the hard courts before moving onto a more favoured clay court season.

He can have a strong run in Rotterdam this week as the Number 2 Seed in the draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be up against a Special Entrant in the First Round. You can't take anything for granted with the Qualifiers usually having their eye firmly in as well as a couple of matches in the new conditions that come with a move to a new tournament, but Egor Gerasimov has benefited from direct entry into the Rotterdam tournament thanks to his efforts in Montpellier last week.

The run last week will have given Gerasimov some confidence having seen off Andy Murray on his way to the Semi Final. Unlike his opponent, Egor Gerasimov would not have had many positive memories to take from his trip to Australia as he exited the first Grand Slam of the season in a match in which he won just a single game!

There is definitely more to him than that defeat to Aslan Karatsev would suggest and the Bulgarian has shown off some solid returning to back up what can be a very big serve when he is hitting his spots. It could particularly be a weapon for Gerasimov on an indoor hard court against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has had his returning issues in his early career.

Signs in Australia suggested that Tsitsipas has improved parts of that side of his game, but the small sample means it is going to be a test for the World Number 6 to see if he can maintain his successes. Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown improvement in his game on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons though and so my feeling is that he will be able to improve his return ratings over the course of 2021 compared to where he has been in 2019 and 2020.

These two players did meet on what has traditionally been fast hard courts in Dubai a couple of years ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who blew past Egor Gerasimov. I do think the latter is improved since then, but so is Tsitsipas and he can begin his healing after the disappointing end to his Australian Open campaign by winning this match in good fashion.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Paula Badosa  @ 1.72 Bet Fred

Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Facundo Bagnis @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 1st)

Interestingly it feels like an almost normal part of the Tennis Tour that we are moving on to four new events that are set to be played this week and from various parts of the world.

We have two big events in Rotterdam for the Men and Qatar for the Women, with two regular Tour level events in Buenos Aires and Lyon too. That means there are some very big names out there in a bid to improve their World Rankings with the system likely to be restored to the usual one year Rankings rather than the two year Rankings used during the global pandemic.

As the Tour begins to move into a more regular feel, there are further positives to take for ourselves as we head towards what should be a more 'regular' time too. I am still awaiting the first vaccine shot, which I will be taking as soon as it is possible, but I am feeling more positive that there are going to be fuller crowds for the Tennis Tour to enjoy the longer we go into the year.

I have mentioned there will be some big names out on the courts this week, but one of those is not Rafael Nadal who pulled out of the event in Rotterdam citing the back issues he was suffering with in Australia. However, two other Australian Open Semi Finalists are both in action in the Netherlands with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas the top two Seeds in Rotterdam this week.

Australian Open Finalist Jennifer Brady is playing in Qatar this week too in what is always two big Middle East tournaments played in back to back weeks on the WTA Tour. This year is slightly different for the Qatar tennis tournament with the ATP event being held back from January and playing next week (where Roger Federer is set to return), but the bigger event tends to be the WTA tournament played here.

Some players have decided to pull out of the event and that has to be do with the travelling and the Adelaide event that was played last week. I don't blame the decision and the focus for those players is likely to rejoin the WTA Tour in Dubai and then move on to the Miami Masters which is set to begin later this month.

A decent end to the week at least limited the effect of some of the poor results that began the tournaments last week, but I am not too impressed with the start made by the Tennis Picks.

I've not really had a lot of luck with players losing sets by wide margins and coming back to win which was the case again on Saturday when Alexander Bublik dropped the first set 2-6, only to win his Semi Final 6-3, 6-4 from that point. That meant he got through, which is his sole concern, but I missed the cover and just need a few things to slightly break back my way to put a winning week together.

That match is one of three or four that seemed to go the same route over the last week, but I do think the plays are still be identified in the right way and a bit more fortune with a couple of points here and there would have seen much greater results.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: A long lay off down to the global crisis brought about by Covid-19 as well as injury issues have affected the early performances of Kei Nishikori.

He returned on the clay at the back end of 2020, but Kei Nishikori did not play any of the hard court events that took place in the final quarter of the season. That has not helped early in 2021 as Nishikori has lost all three matches played in the Australian summer swing and he was largely uncompetitive in all of those defeats.

It should be noted that those did all come against players Ranked inside the top 20 as the draws have not been particularly kind for Kei Nishikori and the same has happened in Rotterdam at a tournament where the Japanese star is perhaps fortunate to earn direct entry. The change in the World Ranking system has kept Nishikori artificially high inside the top 50, but he has a very tough First Round match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who is Ranked inside the top 20 and had a strong couple of tournaments Down Under.

The young Canadian served very big and was also returning pretty well over the last month, although Felix Auger-Aliassime will still be dealing with the disappointment of blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in his Fourth Round defeat to the Qualifier at the Australian Open. There has been time to move past that loss, but Auger-Aliassime is going to have to bring his best tennis to the court to have a deep run in a loaded event.

His numbers have looked good in producing a 7-2 run which includes losing in the Final of an Australian Open warm up event. That will be encouraging to Felix Auger-Aliassime who is facing an opponent in Kei Nishikori who has struggled to hold serve in the first three matches played in 2021.

The former top 5 Ranked player has held just 54% of service games played in 2021 and that has put some intense pressure on Kei Nishikori's return game. He has won less than 35% of return points played on the hard courts over the last month and Kei Nishikori has only produced breaks in 15% of return games played, numbers that could be exposed by Felix Auger-Aliassime if he is anything near the level he has produced so far this season.

This will be a test for Auger-Aliassime, but I think he can get the better of Kei Nishikori in the First Round at Rotterdam. It is a big mark, but if the Canadian serves well, he should be able to find the breaks needed to cover the handicap on his way to the Second Round.

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: A strong run at the Australian Open will give Marton Fucsovics some confidence, but a change in the World Rankings calculations means he has had to Qualify for the main draw in Rotterdam. Two comfortable win have been enough for Fucsovics to make the main draw and he is a narrow favourite to win his First Round match.

The Hungarian will take on a big serving opponent in Reilly Opelka who is heading to Europe after an underachieving Australian summer. There will be some frustration that he was not able to see off Taylor Fritz in the Second Round at the Australian Open and it meant another early defeat to open the season.

It feels like Reilly Opelka will take over some of what we have come to expect from John Isner as he has a huge serve and a pretty limited return game. In the last two and a bit seasons Reilly Opelka has won at least 92% of the service games played on the hard courts, but his return game has been below average and that has seen him play a number of tie-breakers.

On an indoor hard court I think Reilly Opelka can push Marton Fucsovics, although the latter is serving well enough to believe he can at least rattle through his own service games.

Marton Fucsovics has held over 80% of his service games played on the hard courts this season and I do think he can at least keep on top of his American opponent in the First Round.

A mistake could be costly for either player in any set, but the feeling is that both are going to be able to get through their service games with relative comfort more often than not. Barring giving some points away to set up breaks of serve, I would not be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers to decide which player is able to move through to the Second Round.

Even a two set match could see this total number of games surpassed, but I would not be that surprised if a third set will be needed. I give a slight edge to Marton Fucsovics who has the superior return ability, but the total games approach looks a solid play.

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Losing a maiden Grand Slam Final could be a tough time for any player to deal with and Jennifer Brady is going to have to dig deep to keep the momentum going. The American had a fantastic run at the Australian Open as she took full advantage of the way the draw opened up for her and Jennifer Brady has been playing like she believes she is one of the best hard court players in the world.

Last year she did play well after reaching the US Open Semi Final and Jennifer Brady reached the Semi Final of another hard court tournament played following that run. She also had a strong run in Dubai and the feeling is that Brady should enjoy the conditions in Qatar as she deals with what is going to be a new target on her back having broken through another barrier by reaching a Grand Slam Final.

In the First Round in Doha Jennifer Brady is taking on Anett Kontaveit who is a very competent hard court player and who has a big game when at her best. The serve is as big a weapon for Anett Kontaveit as it is for Jennifer Brady and it was important in taking the Estonian to the Semi Final of a warm up event for the Australian Open before making the Third Round in the first Grand Slam of 2021.

In that Round Anett Kontaveit was beaten by Shelby Rogers, another big hitting American, and it was a day in which the stronger serving was produced by Rogers. Anett Kontaveit could not really get a handle on the Rogers serve and you do have to feel that Jennifer Brady can take the racquet out of Kontaveit's hands.

The first serve in particularly is going to be key for Jennifer Brady and I think if she can put enough of those in play it is a match that she can win.

The courts tend to play pretty fast in the hot conditions you find in the Middle East at this time of the year and that should favour Jennifer Brady. As long as she has recovered emotionally from the Australian Open Final, the next two weeks should be solid ones for Brady before the Tour moves to Miami.

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: There isn't much I am going to say about this match as I look for Thiago Monteiro to back up his win over Roberto Carballas Baena from Cordoba by doing the same in Buenos Aires.

Last week I picked Monteiro to cover this same mark against the Spaniard and I think he can do the same again even after the disappointing Quarter Final defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. That would have hurt Thiago Monteiro, but it might make him feel a little better that his tennis is in a good place and he was only beaten by someone who went on and won the title in Cordoba.

The Quarter Final was a close one and at 26 years old it does feel like Thiago Monteiro is still improving as a player. His numbers on the clay courts in the last three seasons on both serve and return have demonstrated that improvement and he was playing well in Cordoba.

There is nothing wrong with the level that Roberto Carballas Baena can produce on the clay courts, but this has not been a good match up for him. Losing to Thiago Monteiro last week is not something that would overly concern the Spaniard on its own, but he has lost five matches to Monteiro and the last three have come without winning a set.

In fact Thiago Monteiro has won the last eight sets between the players and the wins have gotten a little more comfortable each time they have met, while all five matches have been won on the clay courts. The numbers have been skewed heavily in favour of Thiago Monteiro in the head to head with 86% of his service games held compared with Roberto Carballas Baena's 68% mark and it was more of the same when they played last week in Cordoba.

As long as Thiago Monteiro doesn't take things for granted, he can win this one too and his overall game looks too strong for Roberto Carballas Baena. With the heavy break percentage advantage in this head to head, I will look for the Brazilian to cover the handicap again.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 13.64 Units (227.5 Units Staked, - 5.99% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 15th)

We are down to the final four at the tournaments that have been played this week and at the same time the Qualifiers will be beginning for the four new events that are set to be played over the next several days.

I am still looking to round off this week with a positive run that can ensure a winning record and adding to the 2020 totals. That may finally be decided by how the Picks from the Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Saturday go. There are some good looking Semi Finals to be played through the course of the day, although I am going to have to add any selections from ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York to this thread once those markets are put together.

The other tournaments have managed to put some early markets together for their Semi Final matches and you can read the Picks below.


Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: For the third match in a row Pablo Carreno Busta needed a lot of time on the court to come through a three setter. The accumulated fatigue could be a potential issue for the Spaniard, but there has to be some confidence in Carreno Busta's play having saved Match Points on his way to beating Jannik Sinner on Friday.

That confidence can be built up by winning consecutive matches in a final set Tie Breaker, but Carreno Busta might have been able to win matches a little easier if he had not dropped the second set in every match played this week. Pablo Carreno Busta has also been saving a lot of Break Points so far in Rotterdam having faced twenty-three in the last two matches while creating just ten of his own.

The serve has been in decent nick throughout 2020 for Pablo Carreno Busta and he has won 66% of the points played behind serve in Rotterdam and has held 87% of the service games played. However there is a reason the results have not been as good as Carreno Busta would have wanted and that is largely down to the struggles he has had on the return of serve with breaks of serve in just 14% of return gams played so far this week.

It is going to be a big test for Pablo Carreno Busta on the return when facing Felix Auger Aliassime whose numbers in 2020 have been significantly better than the ones the Spaniard has been producing. The young player has spent a lot less time on court so far this week which may be a key difference on the day, while Auger Aliassime has some strong numbers behind him.

The Canadian has held 87% of service games played so far this week and he is winning 68% of service points played which should help Auger Aliassime try and stay on top of Pablo Carreno Busta. While those numbers are similar to Pablo Carreno Busta's, Felix Auger Aliassime has broken in 25% of return games played and that is where he can have a little more success than his opponent and thus get into a position to not only win the match, but also to cover the mark.

It has to be said that the return can sometimes be a little limited from Felix Auger Aliassime, but he should be the fresher player and has shown significantly better form so far this week. There is enough here to make me believe the younger player is worth getting behind here and that is what I will do.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Both of these Rotterdam Semi Finalists had to win a very tight opening set on a Tie Breaker and both will know the match could have easily begun in a very different way. Ultimately both Gael Monfils and Filip Krajinovic did win those Tie Breakers and then were deserved winners as they get set for the second week in a row.

Last week Gael Monfils beat Filip Krajinovic in the Montpellier Semi Final and he went on to win the title there and he is looking to defend his title here in Rotterdam too. The Frenchman's return has been huge for him so far this week and he has broken opponents regularly throughout the tournament and it might be the key difference between these two in this Semi Final.

It won't be easy for Monfils because Filip Krajinovic has been serving very well in the matches he has played here. He has held in 93% of service games played although that is a mark that is significantly better than where Krajinovic has been with his serve in the last three seasons.

Even this season Krajinovic has held 78% of the service games played on the hard courts so the feeling is that his mark will come back to his usual average at some point before the tournament is completed. Filip Krajinovic has returned well enough too as he has been able to free his arms thanks to the confidence he has earned from his serving, but the mark is some way below where Gael Monfils has been with his return game an I still think that gives the higher Ranked player a real advantage.

In their two previous hard court matches against one another, Filip Krajinovic has held 76% of the service games played compared with Gael Monfils' 87% mark. The match last week was fairly competitive, but Monfils was not really threatened on his own serve and there was a 10% difference between the two players in favour of Monfils when it came to percentage of points won behind the serve.

Neither player has been taxed in terms of the length of time spent on court and so I do expect to see the best of both of them. My edge has to be with Gael Monfils whose serve might be enough of a difference on the day to help the Frenchman win and cover.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-16, + 6.02 Units (74 Units Staked, + 8.14% Yield)