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Thursday, 4 September 2025

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th September)

The last four days of the US Open begin with the spotlight on the final four women with both Semi Final matches scheduled for the night session.

They will then have a day of rest before the Final on Saturday and it will be the men who play the two Semi Final matches on Friday before the last Grand Slam of the season is completed at the end of the weekend.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula was the US Open Final and they meet again in New York City, albeit a Round earlier than in 2024.

Out of the two players, Jessica Pegula has been more impressive in her run to the Semi Final, but this has been a tough match up for in recent meetings against the World Number 1 and that is hard to ignore.

The Final was a tight, competitive battle ending 7-5, 7-5, but Aryna Sabalenka was a more comfortable winner in the Miami Final earlier this year. She dominated the number of Break Points created in that latter Final and the top Seed is very comfortable in New York City, even if the fans are likely to be firmly behind the American player.

Jessica Pegula has been serving very well in her run to the Semi Final and that is going to be important for her in this match.

She has to try and keep the pressure on Aryna Sabalenka and not be forced into a position where the World Number 4 has to attack what is a big serve.

The expectation is that Jessica Pegula will have some returning success considering the slightly underwhelming performances we have seen from Aryna Sabalenka in this tournament. Having a walkover in the Quarter Final may mean Sabalenka needs a bit more time to just settle down, and the feeling is that the first set is going to be another tight, competitive battle and four of the last five sets played between these two players have all ended 7-5.

However, it should be noted that Aryna Sabalenka has won all of those sets and she can do the same here, while then taking a similar route to the title win in Miami to cover this big mark.


Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova over 21.5 games: There is so much to admire about the performances of both Naomi Osaka and Amanda Anisimova during this US Open and the winner is going to be very deserving of a place in the Final on Saturday.

After reaching the Wimbledon Final, Amanda Anisimova has to be given credit for backing that up and having such a strong run at her home Grand Slam tournament.

She was crushed without a winning a game in that Wimbledon Final, but Amanda Anisimova my have exorcised any demons by getting revenge on Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final in New York City. The World Number 9 has long been seen as a player with a huge amount of potential, and Anisimova is now making sure she is fulfilling some of that through her performances at the Majors.

Naomi Osaka is a two time former Australian Open and US Open Champion and is looking to complete a 100% conversion of rate at Major tournaments when reaching the Quarter Final- she has won all of the Grand Slams in which she has reached the last eight and Osaka will certainly feel good about moving through the Quarter Final without needing a deciding set.

Both of these players are serving effectively and that is going to be key to the outcome of this Semi Final.

It does feel like Naomi Osaka has a very slight edge when it comes to the serve and that may ultimately prove to be the difference in this match up.

Dismissing the chances of Amanda Anisimova will be a mistake, especially with the confidence she would have picked up in London and backed up here in New York City.

However, the American is going to have to serve really well to keep the pressure on Naomi Osaka, a player who has been playing with a lot of confidence of her own following the run to the Montreal Final last month.

It would not be a huge surprise if this is a match that needs at least one tie-breaker and there is every chance that both players can find a hot streak within a set to push this into a decider. The lean may be with Naomi Osaka, but the overriding feeling is that this could be a match that surpasses the total line set.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 24-16, + 7.86 Units (79 Units Staked, + 9.95% Yield)

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