The US Open is set to bring together the very best players as we reach the business end of the tournament and there is much to look forward to.
The Semi Final lineup is set to be completed on Day 11 in New York City and the matches are now all scheduled to be played on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
We should see more competitive matches as the tournament comes to a conclusion, but the last couple of days have seen players move in front and ultimately hold onto their positions. The expectation is for one potentially long match on Day 11, but the favourites look pretty strong all around and that could show up on the scoreboard when all is said and done.
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: The level that Jannik Sinner has been producing on the hard courts over the last season and a half on the Tour makes questions about him pretty easy... Can the opponent win enough games to give the World Number 1 something to think about, especially against the spread that has been set in these Grand Slam tournaments?
Jannik Sinner himself is barely being pushed and the numbers are quite frankly ridiculous.
Beating Alexander Bublik in the fashion he did in the Fourth Round had his opponent laughing at the end of the match and it is going to take a monumental effort to stop Jannik Sinner from defending the title he won here last year.
The challenge goes to his compatriot in the Quarter Final when Lorenzo Musetti steps onto the court and the latter has had Grand Slam successes in the past that will give him the confidence to compete. He has not enjoyed the best of hard court preparation results, but Lorenzo Musetti has looked pretty comfortable in New York City and he has won the last eleven sets played and completed.
Last year, Lorenzo Musetti beat Alexander Zverev on the hard courts of Vienna, but he is just 3-11 when going up against top 10 Ranked players on this surface. That includes a defeat to Novak Djokovic in Miami earlier this year when winning just four games and Lorenzo Musetti will know more than most about the development and improvement in the Jannik Sinner game.
The problem for Lorenzo Musetti when going up against the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts is that he has not been able to get enough out of his serve. If he struggles on that front again, Jannik Sinner is going to dominate the direction of this Quarter Final and it makes it very difficult to see how the World Number 1 is going to be stopped.
A bigger question is the spread, but you have to feel that Sinner is going to find a set with a couple of breaks of serve in his favour and that could be enough to see him surpass the number where it currently stands.
In the two previous matches between the players on the Tour, Jannik Sinner has held 100% of his service games which is compared with Musetti's mark of 61%.
That will need to be closed dramatically for this Quarter Final to be much more competitive and that seems unlikely right now.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: For the first time since January 2021 and the first time since returning to the Tour, Naomi Osaka has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam tournament.
She has 'only' managed to do that four times in her career... However, it is the conversion rate that stands out with Naomi Osaka winning the title each time she has reached the last eight in a Grand Slam with two of those successes being here in New York City and the other two at the Australian Open.
There is no doubt that Naomi Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts and reaching the Final in Montreal in the build up to the US Open has clearly given her a lot of confidence. The performances in the tournament have backed that up and the crushing victory over Coco Gauff in the Fourth Round will just have reminded Naomi Osaka of her capabilities both on this court and in general.
She will certainly respect her next opponent.
Twelve months ago, Karolina Muchova beat Naomi Osaka in the Second Round at the US Open and she was clearly the better player. Things did change when they met in Melbourne earlier this year as Naomi Osaka rallied and was comfortably the stronger player in a three set win in the Second Round at the Australian Open, but Osaka will appreciate the threat posed by the opponent on the other side of the net.
Karolina Muchova has shown her character by winning every match at the US Open in three sets and she has shown she can deal with crowd support being against her having overcome Venus Williams.
There hadn't been much form shown in the preparation tournaments for the US Open and Karolina Muchova's overall hard court numbers this year have been pretty average. The World Number 13 was just 4-7 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open, although Muchova does have a couple of wins over that level of opponent within this run.
She will need to step things up if Naomi Osaka continues to play at her current level, but you cannot completely dismiss Karolina Muchova.
It is that respect that gives pause for thought, and this is a player that is rarely beaten easily.
However, Naomi Osaka will take plenty of confidence out of handling Muchova at the Australian Open and has proven to be a player that can be very tough to stop when she has picked up momentum within a tournament.
Karolina Muchova has to play her game with all the spins and slices to try and disrupt Naomi Osaka, but if the latter is serving at the level she has produced in this tournament, she should have too much for the higher Ranked player.
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There are going to be plenty of talk about the Wimbledon Final ahead of this US Open Quarter Final and you can completely understand why that will be the case.
It is the only time Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova have met on the Tour and it was the former who won the title in London without dropping a single game.
Credit has to be given to Amanda Anisimova for the way she has been able to recover and put some solid results on the board since that defeat, while credit has to be given to the American for making the Final at Wimbledon. However, there is going to be a significant mental hurdle to overcome in this Quarter Final against a player who won the Cincinnati title in the days before the US Open begun.
Iga Swiatek has not been at her absolute best in the tournament, but she was a dominant Fourth Round winner and she has only dropped a single set in New York City. The World Number 2 is also a former Champion here in 2022 and that is the kind of confidence that could make her very difficult to shift, no matter how well the home player has been playing for a number of months.
Amanda Anisimova was also a very comfortable Fourth Round winner and she has also only dropped a single set in her run to the Quarter Final here.
However, the American was only 2-2 in the build up to the US Open and her overall hard court numbers in 2025 will need to be significantly improved if Anisimova is going to find a way to the upset.
She is now a member of the top 10 in the World Rankings, but Amanda Anisimova has a 6-16 record against those players on the hard courts in her career. Last year she was 1-4 in those matches, but confidence will come from the fact that Anisimova holds a 2-0 record in that spot in 2025.
This is a much tougher test than facing Paula Badosa or Mirra Andreeva though and Iga Swiatek is not someone who is going to be overwhelmed by the crowd noise. The atmosphere can be pretty hostile when the crowd really get into the match, but Amanda Anisimova will have to make a fast start otherwise memories of Wimbledon will come flooding back, both for the player and those watching on.
Iga Swiatek's 6-1 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2025 cannot be ignored and she would have covered this spread in four of those seven matches. You have to feel that the World Number 2 is going to eventually get in control during this match and that ultimately is going to lead to her pulling away from one of the last two American players left in the women's draw.
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has been the producing a couple of upsets, which have also pushed a couple of the Tennis Picks into a losing spot, and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be going for a third in a row.
Wins over Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are impressive enough, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has dropped a single set in those matches.
He will certainly not be in awe of facing Alex De Minaur in this Quarter Final, even if the latter is the higher Ranked player, and it is Felix Auger-Aliassime who is the only one of these two competitors that have reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam.
Alex De Minaur has become very consistent and he has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slam events played, although back to back events had ended before that Round. Getting over the line has proven to be a difficulty for someone like Andrey Rublev and there is a lot of pressure on Alex De Minaur to reach the last four considering the way the draw has fallen for him.
He will know that and that is going to build pressure against an opponent who has a serve that can take the racquet out of the hands of any opponent.
That is key for Felix Auger-Aliassime and it has been the reason he has been able to beat the last two opponents as scoreboard pressure has built up.
The Canadian will also be well aware that he is facing an opponent that does not serve as big as the previous two players beaten in the US Open and that should mean Felix Auger-Aliassime can expect to continue the successes he has had.
However, he is also facing an opponent that is not likely to beat himself and this has all of the makings of being one of the more competitive matches at the latter end of the men's tournament.
We have not seen too many of those in the last Round, but both players in this Quarter Final should be full of belief and the expectation is that we will need at least four sets and, potentially, have a match that goes the distance.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
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