US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2025 (Friday 5th September)

The US Open Semi Final features the top three men's players in the sport and so it is a real surprise that a match featuring two of those is not set to be played in the primetime spot on Friday evening.

Instead Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz will be up first and this could be another quality match between the pair.

Later on Jannik Sinner is expected to move forward through to another Grand Slam Final having done that at the previous three Slams played this season and he remains the favourite to win the title.

Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz over 37.5 games: The Semi Final line up has been set and Novak Djokovic has to be privately thinking that the US Open has panned out exactly as he would have expected.

The former World Number 1 has made it clear in multiple interviews that he feels his pathway to winning a 25th Grand Slam title will feature him having to beat both of the top two players in the Rankings.

Barring an upset in the other Semi Final, Novak Djokovic is almost certainly going to have beat Jannik Sinner IF he is able to find a way past Carlos Alcaraz in the final four.

The key for Novak Djokovic is trying to make sure he has enough left in the tank to take on the the top two players at the business end of a Grand Slam. He has not looked at his best in the early Rounds and did drop a couple of sets he should not have, while Novak Djokovic has come through a tough Quarter Final against Taylor Fritz and so there are plenty of questions for him to answer.

He is taking on Carlos Alcaraz, the World Number 2 who won the title in Cincinnati and who has yet to drop a set at the US Open.

The draw has been kind as far as the Spaniard is concerned with none of the previous wins being against players Ranked inside the top 20 as things opened up. This is without a doubt the toughest test that Carlos Alcaraz will have faced at the US Open, but he has been placed as a significant favourite all things considered and Novak Djokovic will take plenty of motivation from that.

Carlos Alcaraz does have two Grand Slam Final wins over Novak Djokovic, both at Wimbledon, but it was the Serb who came through in a four set Quarter Final at the Australian Open earlier this year. That means Novak Djokovic has won the last two matches between the players, including in the Gold Medal match at the Paris Olympics, and it does feel like the veteran is being dismissed a bit too easily by the layers.

Novak Djokovic is going to have to be at his best to find a way to earn the upset.

He did play well against Taylor Fritz, a player that Djokovic has dominated, and it would be a surprise if the World Number 7 is not able to win at least one set.

It is going to be tough at times against a confident Carlos Alcaraz, and the expectation is that the World Number 2 will find a way to win this match, but Novak Djokovic can make it a competitive Semi Final.

Both men should have the capabilities to win a set and that should push this match past the total games line in this big match.

For Novak Djokovic it is key to at least split the first two sets in this match if he is going to earn the upset and the experience of the veteran should allow him to do that.

Winning the match will be tough though and Carlos Alcaraz is expected to be too strong over four sets.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Barring a set and a half against Denis Shapovalov, Jannik Sinner has looked very comfortable at the US Open as he looks to defend the title won last year in New York City.

A crushing win over compatriot Lorenzo Musetti has kept the World Number 1 on track and he is expected to have too much for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The latter can take inspiration from compatriot Denis Shapovalov, who had Jannik Sinner in a spot of bother earlier in the tournament, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has racked up the upsets to earn a spot in the Semi Final. Wins over Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex De Minaur have all been in a spot of being an underdog and Felix Auger-Aliassime has won two of those matches after dropping the first set.

It does mean having to spend more time on court than is perhaps ideal ahead of a match up against the World Number 1, but Auger-Aliassime has to be pretty confident in his tennis.

Of course, the Canadian is going to have to forget what happened the last time he faced Jannik Sinner.

In Cincinnati, Felix Auger-Aliassime was only able to win two games against the top Seed at the US Open and his serve was simply not working to a level that is needed.

Falling short of the standards that need to be set will put Felix Auger-Aliassime under a huge amount of pressure and it is very difficult to look past Jannik Sinner.

His hard court numbers have been ridiculous in 2025, and Sinner has cruised through the last couple of Rounds.

The returning part of his game is very dangerous and Jannik Sinner is capable of building up scoreboard pressure and breaking down his opponent.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to have to change that narrative to make this a competitive Semi Final, but that may be asking too much from him. He has had a really good tournament and the World Ranking is going to take a significant jump upwards when the new Rankings are released on Monday, but it looks like Felix Auger-Aliassime's time in New York City is set to come to a conclusion and in what may end up being another routine defeat to the World Number 1.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)