The last three weeks have been something of a frustrating time for the College Football Picks and there have been a number of late scores that have been given up to flip the spread.
Last week it was the USC Trojans who were on their way to a cover, but allowed a long Touchdown pass to be completed with less than three minutes left on the clock to give up a second backdoor cover in three games.
Backing them this week may feel a little risky with that in mind, but they should be ready to show the rest of the Big Ten that they are a genuine contender within the Conference and perhaps for even more.
Moving into Week 5 does mean the Conference schedules are really underway and there are some big, big games over the weekend.
All eyes will be on the Penn State-Oregon and Georgia-Alabama games, but those are very tough to predict and instead the focus is on other games as far as the selections go.
The majority of selections are from games in the first two windows of action on Saturday with the last being a late, late night show from the Big 12.
USC Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Some will argue that the Big Ten may be the toughest Conference in College Football with the Ohio State Buckeyes the National Champions and the likes of the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers all looking capable of matching the Playoff runs from 2024.
Add the USC Trojans (4-0) to the mix after they continued their perfect start to the season with a big home win over the Michigan State Spartans. That victory also means USC are leading the way in the Big Ten Conference with the 2-0 record in the books, although this is a team that is still going to learn a lot more about themselves in the weeks and months ahead.
Wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are decent enough, but the Trojans will be set for a challenge in Week 5 when visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1).
Granted, there may have been a really different feel around the game if the Fighting Illini had not just been crushed by 53 points at the home of the Hoosiers.
Losing is one thing and the Fighting Illini will be aware that they still have time to turn the perceptions around, but the bigger impact is the number of injuries suffered in the Secondary both before the loss to the Hoosiers and during the defeat. In the Big Ten you need your best players and Illinois are going to be without some hugely influential players that will make it tough to slow down a USC Offensive unit that have begun the season incredibly brightly.
The early Saturday kick off time is an issue, but USC did not let that bother them in the road win over Purdue.
There will be a real feeling on the Offensive side of the ball that the Trojans can do much of what they like considering how well the Offensive Line are playing. They should be able to establish the run very efficiently and this is just going to make things as comfortable as possible for Quarter Back Jayden Maiava, even if Ja'Kobi Lane has to miss another game.
With the injuries in the Secondary and the likelihood of the Trojans running the ball very well, Jayden Maiava should have his way as he continues to be well protected and it should mean the USC Trojans can pile up some points.
The pressure will subsequently be on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois Fighting Illini Offensive unit to at least be able to control the tempo of this game and to try and keep up with the Trojans on the scoreboard.
There are very little positives to take out of the beat down in Indiana and Luke Altmyer struggled with less than 150 passing yards thrown.
Problems began right up front as the Offensive Line struggled to open up holes in the running game and the grand total of 2 rushing yards last week was clearly a big issue. Despite the three wins secured early, the Fighting Illini had been inconsistent on the ground and they are not likely to see much change out of this strong looking USC Defensive Line.
It wasn't just run blocking, but the Illinois Offensive Line struggled in pass protection and there is every chance that the Quarter Back is going to be under siege for a second game in a row. Seven Sacks were produced by the Hoosiers and this Trojans pass rush are going to feel they are in and around Luke Altmyer all day if the Fighting Illini have struggled to run the ball.
As teams have chased big deficits, the Trojans have allowed some passing yards to be given up, but this looks another big test for the Fighting Illini Offensively having failed as comprehensively as they did in Week 4.
The Trojans are just 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen games in which they have been set as the road favourite and that does temper some enthusiasm to back them here.
However, they look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and this feels like a very tough spot for Illinois after all they suffered last week.
Head Coach Bret Bielema has a good record after a loss and he has been a solid underdog to back, but his Illinois team are just 2-3 against the spread as the home underdog in the last couple of seasons. They will be better than last week, which is not going to be too difficult, but the USC Trojans can do enough Offensively to pull away and then allow the pass rush to force the stops needed to secure a win by double digits for a fifth time in five outings in 2025.
Utah State Aggies @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: As a former player, Head Coach Clark Lea was always going to take the job with the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0) and the only way was up after the team had finished 0-9 in the 2020 season.
With that being said, the Commodores finished 2-10 in two of the first three seasons under this Head Coach and 5-7 in 2022, while Vanderbilt had not had a winning record since 2013.
All that changed in 2024 with the team winning a Bowl Game to end the season at 7-6 and that includes Clark Lea leading the team to a first ever win against a top five Ranked opponent when upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide. They finished 3-5 within the tough SEC, and Vanderbilt have brought back 19 starters from the team that achieved so much last time around, which has in turn sparked this 4-0 start.
Week 6 sees the rematch with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, but all of the focus this week is on Vanderbilt beating the Utah State Aggies (3-1).
Three straight losing seasons have been placed in the books, but Utah State are being led by Bronco Mendenhall in his first season as Head Coach and they are one win away from matching the total from last season. There is a huge amount of respect for Mendenhall in the Vanderbilt Coaching ranks, including Clark Lea who has described the veteran as a 'mentor'.
Utah State have an upset win on the board against the Air Force Falcons, but they were well beaten in the sole road game played at Texas A&M Aggies.
Healthy respect aside, this is a big chance for Vanderbilt to conclude September as an unbeaten team and playing with confidence before heading into Alabama where the home team will be desperate for revenge. They will accept that the Aggies can cause problems with a dual-threat at the Quarter Back position, but this Commodores Defensive Line have clamped down on the run early this season and they will be looking to do the same here.
Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has put up some solid numbers in the first four games of the season, but he will be under a lot of pressure if the Aggies are not able to run the ball. His Offensive Line have not been nearly as productive when it comes to pass protection and Barnes will be aware that this Vanderbilt pass rush is going to be coming for him.
That pressure up front has protected the Secondary and Bryson Barnes will just need to be aware of turning the ball over under pressure.
These issues were on display when Utah State were beaten at Texas A&M earlier this season and the road team are going to have to work hard to shut down what has been a very confident Vanderbilt Offensive unit.
Like the Mountain West team, Vanderbilt have a dual-threat playing from the Quarter Back position in Diego Pavia and he has almost 900 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards already this season. In the defeat to fellow SEC team Texas A&M, Utah State were not able to slow down the ground attack and this Commodores Offensive Line are going to believe they can set the team up in manageable spots throughout the game.
It should open things up for Diego Pavia, who has been very well protected when dropping back to throw the ball, and the Quarter Back can have success moving the chains with his arm.
The Commodores are not a team who have been set as the home favourite too often in recent seasons and they have generally underperformed when they have. However, this Vanderbilt team is extremely confident and experienced and they have covered as the home favourite twice, while blowing out the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road as a narrow underdog.
There is a chance that Clark Lea calls off the dogs if they have a big lead with the game against Alabama in mind, and that could allow a backdoor cover.
However, there is a feeling around this part of Nashville that hasn't been around for a long time and the Head Coach will want his team to ride to Alabama with a huge amount of belief. That should mean allowing the Offensive players to do their thing for long enough to win this game and cover the mark set as the Commodores continue to fly and try to prove themselves as something truly special this season.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies Pick: They may have lost two games last season, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) ran through the Playoff without being pushed and they ended the year as National Champions.
Once again they are amongst the favourites to win the National Championship and the win over the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 has only strengthened the claims.
Head Coach Ryan Day is preparing his team for the opening Big Ten Conference game and it looks a real test for the Buckeyes in a true road setting.
The Washington Huskies (3-0) have also made a perfect start to the 2025 season and Head Coach Jedd Fisch is looking for much better having guided the Huskies to a 6-7 record in 2024. He was in a tough spot when taking over from Kalen DeBoer who had taken the Huskies to the National Championship Game in 2023 and had helped the team win twenty-five games across two years.
It was also a season in which Jedd Fisch was taking a team that was moving into the tough Big Ten Conference and the Huskies finished 4-5 in those games, which makes this home opener something of a statement game for the underdog as much as the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Offensive Line let the Washington Huskies down last season, but that has been a unit that they have actively looked to improve. The early signs are better, but the Huskies are going to be tested up front by this Ohio State pass rush and especially if the home team are not able to establish the run.
It will be the Line of Scrimmage that is massively important on this side of the ball and the Buckeyes Defensive Line have to be confident having had at least one really difficult match up with the Texas Longhorns. The overall performances have been very good when it comes to playing the run and the Buckeyes will feel they can shift the pressure onto Demond Williams Jr at Quarter Back, although they will have to be wary of his ability to move the ball with his legs as much as his arm.
Demond Williams Jr is going to be up against a top Ohio State Secondary and care will have to be taken that he is not pushing the envelope so far to end up making costly mistakes.
The Huskies have won their last twenty-two games at home, but the Buckeyes represent as tough a visiting team that they will have hosted in that time.
We will also learn a lot more about the Washington Defensive unit, which has started the season very well, when they go up against this Buckeyes team.
Once again the Line of Scrimmage is going to be hugely important and the Buckeyes Offensive Line will look to impose themselves on the Washington Defensive Line. This is where the early scheduling can make a difference and the Huskies have simply not faced any team with the power of the Buckeyes, while the latter have already earned that win over Texas which has been mentioned above.
The strength to open up running lanes has also been backed up by very good pass protection and that should give Quarter Back Julian Sayin an opportunity to keep the chains moving. There have been one or two holes in the Washington Secondary that will excite the talented Receivers that the Buckeyes have and they will feel they can win their battles and give Sayin places to throw the ball.
Interceptions have been something of an issue for Julian Sayin, but he has plenty of talent around him to make up for any mistakes and the Ohio State Buckeyes can really display their superiority, even on the road.
The Huskies just feel like a team that have more to prove, and this is a significant step up in class compared with the three teams beaten.
Ohio State are also playing after a Bye Week and they are 10-7 against the spread with rest under Head Coach Ryan Day- he should have the Buckeyes really well prepared and they were also 5-2 against the spread as the road favourite in 2024, a number that they can improve in Week 5.
Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: There was plenty of controversy attached to the Auburn Tigers (3-1) losing their unbeaten record in a road loss at the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 4, but the team has to move on. The SEC admitted that the officials had made a mistake when allowing a Sooners Touchdown to stand and that will have made the 7 point loss sting, especially for a Head Coach who has had two losing seasons and can ill-afford a third.
Recent years have been tough for Auburn as they have slipped behind the standards of some of the other top schools in the SEC and losing records have become the norm. Hugh Freeze was appointed as Head Coach to turn that around, but he has an 11-14 record in the first two seasons.
There have been things to like about Auburn through the first four weeks of the season, but the loss last week means they need to show immediate recovery powers as they face an opponent that will be targeting a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M Aggies (3-0) have an upset win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish under their belt and they are playing for the first time since then.
An opening SEC game is always going to present a new challenge, but the Aggies are at home and there is a feeling that Texas A&M have shown something very positive in winning on the road at Notre Dame. Head Coach Mike Elko is trying to keep things in perspective by pointing out the team are 0-0 in SEC play this season, but the Aggies have been noted with a move into the top ten of the early Rankings.
This is the first of three consecutive home Conference games and the experienced Aggies should have taken full advantage of the Bye Week by focusing on the tape from the Oklahoma win over Auburn.
The key will be up front as the Aggies Defensive Line looks to control the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the Auburn rushing attack- this is a team that only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the season last year and Texas A&M have picked up from where they left off with a strong beginning to this campaign.
Slowing down the run and forcing Jackson Arnold to beat them with his arm will be seen as a big win for the Aggies, especially when you factor in the pass protection issues that were on display in the loss to the Sooners. Some of that has been put on the Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line should take a fair portion of the blame for the Sacks racking up and now they have to deal with a very productive Texas A&M pass rush.
Issues in pass protection have limited the numbers that Jackson Arnold has been able to produce, although there has to be some credit for the fact that the Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, despite the pressure being put on him.
Even then, it looks like it will be another difficult day moving the ball with any consistency and that will put the pressure on the Tigers Defensive unit.
There hasn't been much going wrong for the Aggies Offensive plans early in the season, although they may feel that this is the toughest Defensive unit they will have to face.
Both teams will be well aware of the battle at the Line of Scrimmage- last season the Aggies finished second in the SEC in terms of rushing yards per game, and they have begun this season with strong ground numbers, but they are facing an Auburn Defensive Line that prides itself on being able to slow the run. In 2024 the Tigers only allowed 3 yards per carry, and they limited the Sooners to just 35 ground yards last season with this Line looking even tougher this season.
You know that neither will want to take a backwards step and so there will be plenty of runs called by the home team to try and break through, while Quarter Back Marcel Reed is capable of moving the ball with his legs.
However, it is the arm that has been impressing through three games and Marcel Reed has one edge over Jackson Arnold and that is he is playing behind an Offensive Line that has offered him time in the pocket. Keeping the Auburn pass rush at bay will be a challenge, but Reed is also going to have noted some of the holes that have been evident in the Tigers Secondary and he is going to have talented Receivers finding a way to get open and give the home team an opportunity to move the chains.
This is where the Aggies may end up having the edge and they can earn revenge for the very narrow defeat to Auburn at the back end of the 2024 season.
It was a dramatic game won in a Fourth Overtime, while the Tigers had pushed the game into Overtime by scoring a Field Goal with 5 seconds remaining in regulation.
This will not have been forgotten by the Aggies, who have a 6-0 record against the spread when set as Conference favourites of less than 16 points and with the revenge angle on their side.
Auburn have bounced back from defeats pretty well against the spread under Head Coach Hugh Freeze, but they are 0-5 against the spread when facing an opponent playing with revenge and the Texas A&M Aggies can display they are a serious Playoff contender with a solid home win in Week 5 of the season as the SEC schedule gets underway at College Station.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have found a way to get the better of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), but there is still so much for the Volunteers to play for through the remainder of the regular season. One defeat is not going to keep them out of the College Football Playoff and the team responded to the heartbreaking defeat to the Bulldogs by crushing the UAB Blazers in Week 4.
However, there is a pressure on Tennessee to get back on track in the SEC having dropped the opening Conference game and they are facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) who lost all eight SEC games played last season.
Credit has to be given to the Bulldogs in the fact they have already doubled the win total of 2024 through the first four games, but the schedule has been relatively comfortable. The narrow win over the Arizona State Sun Devils, a team that made the Playoff Bracket last season, will have given Mississippi State a lot of belief, especially as they had been set as the home underdog in that game.
It is a win that could look very good come the end of the season, but this is the start of a run of eight SEC games in succession and that is when the schedule does look extremely challenging.
The Bulldogs do have some experienced players on the roster, although the team lost valuable players from last season in the transfer portal. Despite those losses, the start made to the 2025 campaign will have given the Bulldogs a huge amount of belief, even if they are about to step up a level or two in terms of competition.
Running the ball against this Volunteers Defensive Line has proven to be a huge challenge in recent years and everything points to this being a strength of the unit once again. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have begun the season very well, but the schedule has helped and the expectation is that Quarter Back Blake Shapen is going to have to make plenty of plays with his arm to keep things moving.
Blake Shapen was the understudy at the position last season so the system is not something that will be unfamiliar to him and he has made a strong start. 884 passing yards with 7 Touchdown passes has to be respected, but playing from behind the chains will be a different test for the Quarter Back, as will the fact that he is likely to be under pressure from this Tennessee pass rush.
There have been one or two spaces to exploit in the Secondary, which will give Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs something to attack, but finding the consistency will be the test for the home underdog.
Mississippi State have produced some early solid numbers on the Defensive side of the ball, but the level of competition cannot be ignored.
In Week 5 they are facing one of the stronger teams in the SEC who are being led very competently by Quarter Back Joey Aguiar.
Everything begins on the Offensive Line though and this Volunteers team have piled up the yardage on the ground and while playing stronger opponents than they one they face on Saturday. Stopping the run was a huge issue for the Bulldogs Defensive Line last season and the Tennessee Volunteers are likely to pummel them in this one and make sure Joey Aguilar is in a much more comfortable position to make plays against the Secondary.
If they are playing in front of the chains as expected, the Bulldogs Secondary are going to find it very difficult to make the same kinds of plays as they have against weaker opponents. This should give Tennessee the opportunities to move the ball pretty comfortably for much of the afternoon and they can win this game and cover the spread.
In recent years the Bulldogs have been a pretty poor home underdog with a 3-9-1 record against the spread since the beginning of the 2021 season. They are 2-3 against the spread in that spot under Head Coach Jeff Lebby, while Tennessee finished 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite last season.
This is the first true road game of the season, which is always going to be a test of character, but the Volunteers are going into a Bye Week following this one and they can put everything into this game.
Being 0-1 in the SEC means there is some urgency too and the Volunteers are unlikely to overlook the hosts, who have made a perfect start to the 2025 season, which should lead to a Tennessee win by double digits.
BYU Cougars @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: These two teams were involved in a rare Conference Bowl Game at the end of last season and the BYU Cougars (3-0) blew out the Colorado Buffaloes (2-2). Head Coach Deion Sanders has downplayed the revenge angle and instead is motivated by trying to help the Buffaloes move back above 0.500, while this is also an important game for Colorado in the Big 12 having dropped their opening Conference game.
So much has changed for the Buffaloes from 2024 with some key players Drafted to play in the NFL and most expected a step back for the team after the 9-4 finish last time around. Only tie-breakers prevented the Buffaloes from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and perhaps even the College Football Playoff, but matching that record and run looks much more uncertain with the team in something of a transition.
The Buffaloes improved from 4 wins in Coach Prime's first season in charge to 9 wins in 2024, but a winning record might be seen as a success in 2025.
A home loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackes and a blowout road loss to the Houston Cougars has been the outcome for the Buffaloes when playing Power 4 Conference teams. While the BYU Cougars have not exactly had the toughest of schedules to open the season, this is going to be another stiff test for Colorado considering how good the Big 12 Conference contenders have looked.
Last season BYU were another team who finished 7-2 in Big 12 play, but they also missed out on the Championship Game on tie-breakers.
Motivation is high to go at least a step further in 2025 and the Cougars have some key Offensive players back, and that experience makes them a considerable threat.
The Offensive Line have ripped open some big running games in this unbeaten start to the season and they will be hugely encouraged by the yardage that the Buffaloes have given up on the ground. It looks like the Colorado Defensive Line is set for a step backwards compared with 2024 and the Cougars should be able to establish the ground game, which in turn should makes things that much more comfortable for Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier.
He will have time in the pocket and Chase Roberts has begun 2025 from where he left off last season and the road team will feel they can move the chains with plenty of consistency over the course of this game.
One of the key reasons the Cougars were able to have such a successful 2024 was the play of the Defensive unit and the early signs is that the 2025 unit is going to be just as tough.
They have clamped down on the run through the opening three games and that is going to be key for them against the Buffaloes as they look to force the Quarter Back to make the big plays for the home team. There has been an uncertainty around the position early in the season and so the Cougars will be really confident if they can have Colorado backed up into third and long spots.
Kaidon Salter is almost certainly going to be given the start, but Deion Sanders is not going to be worried about having to shift him out if the game plan is not being executed. The Quarter Back will have picked up some confidence from his play against the Wyoming Cowboys last time out, but Salter is facing a Cougars Secondary that has played the pass very well.
BYU have also gotten plenty of pass rush pressure up front and Colorado's Offensive Line may not allow Kaidon Salter, or any other Quarter Back, to have the time needed if they are in third and long spots. Throwing under pressure is very dangerous against the Cougars Defensive Backs and a turnover or two may just set the road team on the way to a win and a cover.
Deion Sanders is a huge motivator for the Colorado players and they are 9-5 against the spread when set as the underdog, although 0-2 this season.
They are 8-2 against the spread playing with the revenge factor and the Bowl Game defeat will not have been forgotten by anyone in Boulder.
However, this BYU team look like genuine Big 12 Championship contenders and they are 4-2 against the spread in the last six games when set as the road favourite. Imposing themselves at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball should give the Cougars the edge and they can win this one by at least a converted Touchdown margin.
MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Vanderbilt Commodores - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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