There are teams that have already suffered losses that could end their hopes of making the twelve team Playoff- Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lost twice and they really have no margin for error the rest of the way, while also needing other results to land their way, while the Clemson Tigers are also in early trouble at 1-2.
However, for others like the Tennessee Volunteers, a close defeat against a quality opponent like Georgia will not be a fatal blow and they will still have plenty of reasons to believe the rest of the way.
More movement within the College Football Ranks will be expected once the Week 4 action is completed, but one news story of interest this week was the report that a game will be played at Wembley Stadium, London next season.
In Week 0, the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones met in Dublin, but College Football has yet to follow the NFL to England and that is expected to change.
Perhaps most interesting is that the game is rumoured to be played in Week 3 rather than the unofficial opening week of action as has been the case in the past for any international game. It may lead to more games being played in England going forward, although that may depend on how Conferences set up their schedules as not many College teams will be willing to give up home field like they do in the NFL.
That is something to keep an eye on with Kansas Jayhawks and Arizona State Sun Devils rumoured to be the participants at Wembley Stadium in 2026.
It was a better week for the College Football Picks, although still not quite good enough to begin to turn things back around after a poor Week 1 showing.
As we move into Week 4, hopefully a winning set of games can be found with those selections seen below.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Ryan Walters looked to be coming into a good situation with the Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), but the 1-11 record in 2024 was never going to be good enough for him to remain as Head Coach.
Unsurprisingly most would have felt the Boilermakers could only go up under Barry Odom, who had been doing a fine job as Head Coach of the UNLV Rebels. He has already helped double the wins from 2024, while the Boilermakers offered some resistance before losing to the USC Trojans at home in the Big Ten last week.
That makes it ten straight Conference defeats for the Boilermakers, but they are heading out to South Bend for this non-Conference game in Week 4.
Motivation will be high against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2) with just 110 miles separating the campuses, while Purdue fans will remember the shellacking handed out by Notre Dame in 2024. That was on the way to National Championship Game, but this Fighting Irish team have already lost two close games to the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies and even making the post-season could be beyond them four weeks into the new season.
Head Coach Marcus Freeman has overseen a solid few seasons with the Fighting Irish, but he will be under pressure if the team are to slip to a third straight defeat in 2025.
There is room for improvement for the Fighting Irish ahead of this game- they have struggled for Offensive consistency and some of that is down to the Offensive Line issues. Notre Dame have not been able to run the ball with real authority, while the Fighting Irish Offensive Line have not been nearly as effective in pass protection as young Quarter Back CJ Carr would have liked.
It has put some pressure on Carr by having to be forced to throw from third and long spots and that has contributed to the Quarter Back opening this season with 3 Touchdown passes along with 2 Interceptions.
He should be able to have success against this Purdue team, although credit has to be given to Barry Odom who has made his reputation as a Defensive Coach and who has already shown he can toughen up this team. Last season the Boilermakers could not make stops, but the Defensive Line has made an encouraging start to the season and could keep the underdog competitive.
Winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so important in any American Football game and Purdue may struggle on the Offensive side of the ball when it comes to establishing the run. They may have some success slowing down the Fighting Irish on the other side, but the Boilermakers are not expected to have much success on the ground and that is going to put the pressure on the Quarter Back.
However, Ryan Browne may have some spaces to exploit considering the early issues Notre Dame have had in the Secondary, although the 4 Interceptions thrown is a problem. The Fighting Irish will also expect a step down compared with the Offensive power of the Hurricanes and Aggies, but there is an opportunity for Browne and the Boilermakers to have some gaps to exploit.
Turnovers are going to be important, but the spread is a big one and Barry Odom's record as an underdog is to be respected.
Notre Dame just need to win and the Purdue Head Coach was 6-3 against the spread as the road underdog with the Rebels.
The 59 point home loss to the Fighting Irish last season gives the road underdog a bit more motivation and the points on offer look appealing enough here.
Florida Gators @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The 10-3 overall record and the 6-2 Conference record saw the Miami Hurricanes (3-0) come up just short of the College Football Playoff spots.
They did win at least ten games for the first time since 2017, but the pre-season chatter was all about Head Coach Mario Cristobal and whether he could help the Hurricanes meet the new expectations around them.
Despite losing Cam Ward to the NFL as the Number 1 Overall Pick, the Hurricanes have been able to bring in Carson Beck at Quarter Back and the experience of this player cannot be underestimated. Coming through an early test to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, last year's National Championship Runners Up, will have raised the expectations further and the ACC looks a pretty open Conference at the very top.
A blowout win over the South Florida Bulls keeps the good times going, but everyone associated with Miami are expected a much tougher test against another in-State rival and one that is already in a desperate position.
Billy Napier may have finished last season by leading the Florida Gators (1-2) to a winning record, but 8-5 is not going to cut it again and the early results have already put the Gators behind the eight ball. Losing at the LSU Tigers is somewhat forgivable, but Florida were also beaten by the aforementioned Bulls and the Head Coach has to be feeling the pressure in his fourth season at the helm.
It is the Offensive side of the game that has been letting Florida down and they will need to put a solid Defensive unit in a better spot.
DJ Lagway is experienced having had to come in for Graham Mertz last season, but it was his 5 Interceptions in the loss to the Tigers that made the difference.
He has to be more careful against this tough Hurricanes Defense and the problem begins right up front with the Florida Offensive Line expected to find it difficult to establish the run. This will automatically mean the Quarter Back is having to force plays from third and long spots, which is a problem when noting 4 of the 6 Interceptions thrown in 2025 have been right out of that spot, and DJ Lagway is also going to be dealing with what has been a solid Miami Secondary.
Pressure can be produced up front and everything is pointing to another tough Offensive day in the office for the Florida Gators.
However, the key for the Gators has to be playing a clean game and at least being able to lean on the Defensive unit to continue to produce at the level they have been. It is a level that will give Florida a chance in every game played as long as they not being forced to protect short fields and the Gators just need Lagway to avoid the Interceptions that can put them on the back foot.
In saying that, Carson Beck is very experienced at Quarter Back and he has enjoyed his two previous games against the Florida Gators when a member of the Georgia Bulldogs. He did throw 3 Interceptions in the win against them last season, but has 4 Touchdown passes and Beck will believe the Hurricanes have the talent to find a way to move the chains.
A lot of the heavy handling may have to be done by Carson Beck considering how well the Florida Defensive Line have been performing early this season. They are going to be tested by the Hurricanes Offensive Line, but it may mean Beck is in a position where he will have to show off all of the experience he has in College Football.
Throwing successfully against this Florida Secondary will not be easy and Carson Beck has to avoid the Interceptions that could swing the game away from Miami. However, the feeling is that Beck can call upon some of his Receivers to win their battles and this is a big opportunity for Miami to show they are a genuine contender to reach the Playoff and perhaps even more.
Last season Florida were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Miami Hurricanes at home and that will give them plenty of motivation this week.
Back to back road games are very difficult and it does feel like a game that the Miami Hurricanes can win and cover.
Respect has to be given to Billy Napier whose team has a winning record against the spread when playing with revenge, while the Head Coach has a 7-1-1 record against the spread when his team have a losing record. These stats cannot be dismissed, but DJ Lagway may not play a clean enough game for the Florida Gators and they may suffer yet another defeat by double digits when facing a Carson Beck-led opponent.
California Golden Bears @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: The poor start made by the Clemson Tigers seems to have opened up the ACC and the California Golden Bears (3-0) will certainly feel they can exploit any gaps that have developed at the top.
Last season they finished with a 6-7 record, but there were enough close defeats in that time to believe that better was to come.
Non-Conference results are not always the best indication, but California have beaten Oregon State and Minnesota and they are set as big favourites to beat San Diego State Aztecs (1-1).
In 2024, California were 21 point winners against San Diego State at home and they are a significant favourite on the road. You can understand the reasoning for that considering how well the Golden Bears have begun this season, but they will have to be careful that they are not overlooking this opponent with the first ACC game on deck at Boston College set for Week 5.
The Golden Bears Offensive Line should be able to have some success on the ground as the Washington State Cougars did in their game with the San Diego State Aztecs, although the majority of the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
He beat out Devin Brown, a transfer from Ohio State, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has impressed with 6 Touchdowns and a single Interception. After watching Jaxson Potter carve up the San Diego State Secondary, Sagapolutele and the Offense will certainly feel they can pick up where Washington State left off.
One challenge for the Golden Bears is that they are facing a team out of a Bye Week and with adjustments that will have been made. Even then, you have to believe California continue to roll and they can certainly pile up the yards and then see if the Aztecs have enough about them to make this competitive.
They were not able to do that in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars and San Diego State will be facing a California Defensive unit that have opened the season looking in very strong form.
San Diego State will want to lean on the Offensive Line and Running Back Lucky Sutton, but that is not going to be easy considering what we have seen from the Golden Bears Defensive Line. The road team will be aware that Sutton is the best player on this side of the ball for the Aztecs, and the home team are not going to be shying away from continuing to pound the rock, but it could be tough to move the chains with any consistency.
That will mean pressure on Jayden Denegal at Quarter Back, who struggled in the road loss at the Cougars.
He has been relatively well protected by the San Diego State Offensive Line, but Denegal has struggled for consistency and that may be the case against this California Secondary. There will be moments of success, but it could be another tough day in the office for this Offense and that could see the California Golden Bears eventually pull clear.
In recent years, the Golden Bears are 8-0 against the spread when playing non-Conference road games, while they are 14-7 against the spread in non-Conference games overall.
The spread is not going to be an easy one to deal with, but the Golden Bears can do enough to secure a two Touchdown win.
Michigan State Spartans @ USC Trojans Pick: Lincoln Riley is in his fourth year as Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0) and there is pressure on him to get things moving in a positive direction. His team won 11 games in his first season in charge, but that has dropped to 8 games in 2023 and 7 games in 2024 and the move to the Big Ten Conference means a much tougher route to earn a spot in the Playoff.
The positive is that four Big Ten teams were invited into the twelve team College Football Playoff last season and the USC Trojans have made a positive start to the season. They have already secured a road win in the Conference, which is that much tougher considering the vast range covered within the Conference schedule, and the Trojans are playing with real confidence.
However, there will be no doubt that this game represents the toughest test so far this season when the USC Trojans host the Michigan State Spartans (3-0).
Being in the Big Ten means the Trojans have a very tough schedule beginning this week, but the benefit of hosting is that this late kick off time should give the home team another advantage.
They will have plenty of respect for Michigan State Head Coach Jonathan Smith and USC fans will be familiar with his work with the Oregon State Beavers. After the team won 11 games in 2021, the last three years have been difficult, but the first season under Smith in 2024 showed plenty of positive signs and three straight wins to open this season means expectations are beginning to be increased at Michigan State.
Last season they finished 3-6 in Big Ten play, while the Spartans have not faced any team of real note before this huge statement test.
Like any team in the Conference, Michigan State will have a tough run of games coming up and they have to hope that the three games played are enough preparation for the kind of opponents they will be facing in the Big Ten.
The Spartans will find it tough to run the ball with any consistency against this Trojans Defensive Line and that will mean having to lean on Quarter Back Aiden Chiles to try and keep the team moving. Michigan State have not really impressed when facing weaker opposition compared with the USC Trojans, and so it will make it tough to believe that the road team can have a lot of consistent success when it comes to pounding the ball on the ground.
Aiden Chiles has opened the season with some positive numbers, but he did have 13 Touchdown passes and 11 Interceptions last season and this is going to be the first game where the pressure is on his shoulders. Playing out of third and long is tough and that will only be more difficult when you think of the pass rush pressure the Trojans have been able to generate early this season.
He will also be trying to throw against a ball-hawking Secondary and there is a feeling that Chiles could be forced into a turnover or two that really allows the USC Trojans to break the game open.
Once again all eyes will be on the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball... And the Trojans have to be very confident in what they are running out.
Credit has to be given to the Spartans Defensive Line for the early successes put on the board, but they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one that the Trojans will be trotting out. In the first three wins, USC have crushed teams on the ground and they have picked up 7 yards per carry, which in turn has made things very comfortable for Jayden Maiava at Quarter Back.
Jayden Maiava will be encouraged by the numbers being allowed by the Michigan State Secondary and he has been given plenty of time by the USC Offensive Line when dropping back to throw the ball. With the Receivers around him, Maiava is expected to have another quality showing and he can help the USC Trojans push forward and put a statement win on the board.
Since the start of the 2024 season, USC are 6-0 against the spread as the home favourite.
In recent years, the Michigan State Spartans are 1-7-1 against the spread as underdogs of more than 17 points and they may struggle to keep up with the hosts in this Week 4 clash.
MY PICKS: Purdue Boilermakers + 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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