This thread will be expanded upon over the next few hours, but for now the Thursday Night Football game has come around very quickly and there is a selection from that game in Week 1.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Week 3 opens up with a Thursday Night Football offering from the AFC East and it already looks a challenge for three teams to catch the defending Champions Buffalo Bills (2-0). The personal feeling was the Bills could be potentially vulnerable in Week 2 having fought back to beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 thanks to an epic Fourth Quarter, but Buffalo crushed the New York Jets on the road and they can take a firm grip of this Division over the coming weeks.
They dropped the Jets to 0-2 and they face a Divisional opponent with the same record when the Miami Dolphins (0-2) head to town after losing to the New England Patriots.
About the only positive thing you can say about that is the Dolphins were a lot more competitive than in the opening game when blown out by the Indianapolis Colts, but falling to 0-2 has already placed the team in a desperate spot. A banner had been flown above the Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday declaring that the General Manager Chris Grier and Head Coach Mike McDaniel should be fired and there is a real sense that those supporters will get their wish at the end of this season.
That doesn't do much for the team now and the doom-mongers who suggested the Miami Dolphins could be the worst team in the NFL look to be on the right side of that discussion.
There really has not been much to be positive about and having to play on a short week at the home of a genuine Super Bowl contender, and one that will be keen to keep their foot on the throat of Divisional rivals, have left the layers with no choice but to ask the Bills to cover this big line.
With Mike McDaniel as Head Coach, there was a hope that the Dolphins Offensive performances would always be strong, but there has to be serious questions about Tua Tagovailoa's future at Quarter Back. Tyreek Hill looks desperate to get out of Miami and Jayden Waddle has not really kicked on, but the Quarter Back has had health issues and certainly looks weaker than some of his peers that came out in the same NFL Draft.
He did have 315 passing yards last week, but Tua Tagovailoa threw a late, back breaking Interception and then was also stopped on Downs as the Dolphins passed up the chance for the late victory. The Sacks have also been piling up and this Buffalo team have been getting some real pressure up front, so there may not be a lot of time for Tagovailoa if he is having to throw from behind the chains.
However, the Offensive Line have been able to open some solid running lanes and Miami will have noted the successes that the Ravens and Jets have had against the Buffalo Defensive Line. While this game is close, De'Von Achane can rip off some yards on the ground to put his team in the best position to have consistent Offensive success and he may also become a big factor in the passing game with Matt Milano set to miss out for the Buffalo Bills.
That should mean Miami arrive without all doom and gloom, but the pressure could be keeping up with the Buffalo Bills on the scoreboard and having to be forced to drift away from a running game-plan.
Josh Allen is Josh Allen, but it is a huge boost for the Buffalo Bills seeing James Cook producing as he has from Running Back, while the Wide Receivers and Tight Ends are looking like they have taken a step forward in their development.
It is all positive for the Bills right now and it may be tough for the Miami Dolphins to find a way to slow them down.
The Defensive Line has at least made some plays up front, but Buffalo are running out an Offensive Line that is experienced and feasting up front, which is making things very comfortable for James Cook. The Running Back has already produced three Touchdowns on the ground, while also having confident hands which makes Cook a secure safety blanket as far as his Quarter Back is concerned.
If the Bills are running the ball as expected, Josh Allen should be able to carve up a Secondary that has looked incredibly weak.
Josh Allen is not expected to be facing much pass rush pressure and the Buffalo fans arriving at the Stadium may be thinking about the way the Colts moved the ball against Miami and feeling that their team will be able to do whatever they like in this game.
The short week also gives the favourite a bit more of an advantage as Green Bay showed last week, although Buffalo have not always had success on Thursday Night Football with a 1-3 record against the spread when set as the home favourite. The Bills have tended to play in games that do not surpass the total in these Thursday Night affairs, especially at home, and that does make me a little wary about asking the team to cover a double digit spread.
Last season the Bills were 2-1 against the spread when set as favourites of at least 9.5 points, but this is a big mark and previously they had perhaps struggled to meet expectations considering how easily a backdoor cover can be achieved.
Miami certainly have the skill players to do that too, but Buffalo should be focused enough on a rival and this is a team that have dominated when facing winless opponents early in the season.
The Bills have tended to put the beatdown on the Miami Dolphins at least in one of the regular season games in recent years and everything is pointing to that more likely being the case in Week 3. In three of their last five home games against the Dolphins, Buffalo have been able to come through with a victory of at least a 15 point margin and the faster starting AFC East team can pull away in the second half and perhaps use a turnover or two to ensure they cover this line.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Most teams sitting at 2-0 would be pretty pleased with the start made to a season, but there are some concerns about this Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) team. They have beaten the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs, but the Eagles have not been as dominant as they were closing out last season and some have criticised the early play-calling from new Offensive Co-Ordinator Sean Patullo.
The Super Bowl Champions crushed all that opposed them in the Playoff last season, but the one game that almost got away from the Philadelphia Eagles was against the Los Angeles Rams (2-0).
Matthew Stafford and company were driving with a chance to take the lead in that Playoff game, but the Eagles did enough to just edge over the line.
It does mean Philadelphia have won three in a row against the Rams, including beating them twice last season, and this is a chance to just remind the rest of the NFL that they remain the team to beat.
Saquon Barkley was a huge part of the successes that the Eagles had all season, but he had been particularly dominant against the Los Angeles Rams in the two meetings against them in the 2024 season. This has led to the Rams looking to make some changes on the Defensive Line to slow things down and they have made a positive start to the season, although it will be interesting to see how they deal with the Eagles on Sunday.
The Philadelphia Offensive Line continues to look very strong, but they have yet to really find the rhythm that saw them contribute to some huge numbers produced by Barkley at Running Back.
That is where the criticism of some of the play-calling has been raised with people believing the Eagles calls are predictable, and thus that much easier to defend.
Head Coach Nick Sirianni even suggested that there has to be something of a change, but the Eagles will still want to be a power running team and they will give Saquon Barkley plenty of touches. He ripped off some huge runs in the wins over the Los Angeles Rams last season and the Eagles will be hoping to see more of the same, while also making sure Jalen Hurts is in third and manageable spots on the field.
The Quarter Back has not put up the big passing numbers, but Jalen Hurts has been efficient when dropping back to throw and he has also been pretty well protection. We will see that protection tested by this Rams pass rush, but being in front of the chains means Hurts will not have to hold onto the ball for too long and he could have Dallas Goedert back at Tight End.
Los Angeles fans will point to some solid Defensive numbers, but those have come against Houston and Tennessee who have a combined 0-4 record. This time the test is much greater and the Philadelphia Eagles will be confident they can continue to move the ball against this Defensive unit.
Running the ball is also key for the Rams in this game and they will have noted that the closest of the last three losses to the Philadelphia Eagles was in the Playoff game when the team managed to reach triple digits on the ground. They had not done that in the previous two games and the early performances of this Los Angeles Offensive Line will offer plenty of encouragement ahead of this game.
Early performances have seen the Rams pile up some solid numbers on the ground and Philadelphia's Defensive Line may have some problems containing Kyren Williams. With an Offensive mind like Sean McVay as Head Coach, Los Angeles will have some sweeps and other misdirection plays to ensure they are not sitting too far behind the chains in this one and giving Matthew Stafford the best opportunity to set his team up for a victory.
The veteran Quarter Back has made a decent start to the season and there will be a real hope that he can lead the Rams to another Super Bowl success.
Matthew Stafford should have time in the pocket, as long as the Rams are finding a way to remain in third and manageable, but he will also be dealing with a young Philadelphia Secondary that have looked in good rhythm to start the year. He does have a couple of quality Receivers to make plays down the field and the Los Angeles Rams are expected to make this a contest, even if they do come up a little short.
Consecutive road games in the early 1pm Sunday slot is tough, but even more so when a team from the West Coast has to head out East.
Jalen Hurts has also had a positive record when set as the home favourite and this game will feel important to the Philadelphia Eagles. It should be a fun game, which goes all the way down to the final two minutes of the Fourth Quarter, but the Eagles have found a way to get the better of this opponent and they can do that again on their way to a 3-0 start.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: They have missed the Playoffs in four straight seasons, but there is little doubt that the Indianapolis Colts (2-0) are heading into the 2025 season looking to put a big year together for former owner Jim Irsay.
The unexpected passing of Irsay in May will provide motivation for the team and fans and the Indianapolis Colts have looked good through the first two weeks of the season.
A mistake by the Denver Broncos allowed the Colts to re-kick a game winning Field Goal in Week 2 to remain perfect, but there is some caution to the start. Twelve months ago the New Orleans Saints looked pretty special through two games, but they did not make the post-season and the Colts have to remain focused as they begin Divisional play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-1, but Indianapolis begin by facing the Tennessee Titans (0-2) who have shown some competitive spirit, but ended 2024 with a 3-14 record. They pushed the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams, but the Titans have failed to put a full game together and Head Coach Brian Callahan will soon be under serious pressure.
Cam Ward is the Number 1 Overall Pick, but he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line and the skill players around him have not been up to the standard that may have been expected.
The Quarter Back is not helped by the fact that the Offensive Line is missing key players that may have helped to establish the run and at least put him in a position to not have to hold the ball for too long. Instead Cam Ward needs routes to develop and he has been under siege behind Center, which is something that even this limited Indianapolis pass rush could exploit.
There has been some room to run against the Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line, but the game plan may be to lock down the Titans up front and dare Cam Ward and the Receivers to beat them. Some of what Cam Ward has thrown up has looked good, but the plays are not being made and the Colts Secondary have begun the season in good form.
Tennessee are sure they have a franchise Quarter Back, but Indianapolis surprisingly chose Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson as the starting Quarter Back.
Daniel Jones has made sure there has been no early regret about the decision and Anthony Richardson could potentially have to rebuild his career away from the Colts. The former has come out and led the Colts to two games without needing to Punt the ball away, although a huge helping hand has been given to Jones and the entire Offensive unit by Running Back Jonathan Taylor.
Credit should also be given to the Indianapolis Offensive Line that have opened up some big holes for Taylor to attack and they should be able to keep that positive start going when playing on the road for the first time in 2025.
Keeping Daniel Jones in front of the chains should make life pretty comfortable for the Indianapolis Colts and the Quarter Back should be able to make plays with his arm. He has been given time by the Offensive Line and Jones has eaten up the blitz, while playing out of third and manageable should mean the Colts are in a position to continue their fine start to the new season.
The Colts have won four in a row in this series with this AFC South rival and they have covered in all of those wins too, twice as the favourite.
The 2025 New Orleans Saints are a cautionary tale about fast starting teams, especially those that have been unexpected early successes, but this Indianapolis Colts team looks well balanced. They also do benefit from the schedule by playing in the AFC South, and the Indianapolis Colts can prove themselves as a genuine Playoff contender by producing better than their 0-3 record against the spread when set as the road favourite last season.
Indianapolis can change that narrative immediately by getting the better of a struggling rival and the Colts may have the Offensive power to come away with a strong win.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There was every chance that the Detroit Lions (1-1) and Baltimore Ravens (1-1) could have met in the Super Bowl last season, but both suffered disappointing Playoff defeats.
Despite that, both teams will have entered 2025 with big ambitions and those will not have been dented over the first two weeks of the season. After both the Lions and Ravens were beaten in Week 1, the teams showed how much confidence they are still carrying by putting blowout wins on the board in Week 2.
Home wins over the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns respectively are one thing, but the Lions and Ravens meet in this very good looking Monday Night Football game.
It is Baltimore who will be hosting and they are led by Lamar Jackson on the Offensive side of the ball, a Quarter Back who has loved playing in this prime time spot. He has made another solid start to the 2025 season, although Jackson is well aware that most are going to be judging him on his ability to lead Baltimore to a deep Playoff run rather than the regular season successes.
The AFC North looks pretty weak after Joe Burrow went down with an injury, but this non-Conference game may still mean something to Baltimore to remind the rest of the NFL that they are a team that have to be taken very, very seriously. The capitulation at the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 will have been a little concerning, but overall the first two performances have been solid.
Baltimore will feel pretty confident when they have the ball in their own hands.
The team have been able to run very effectively behind this Offensive Line and with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry being a tandem that is hard to defend. The Lions Defensive Line can be pretty stout up front, but they will have to keep the eyes wide open to see how the Ravens are trying to establish the run and not many teams have found the right reads to stop them.
Lamar Jackson is without some key Receivers on this side of the ball, but he will have an easier time trying to convert out of third and manageable spots on the field.
The Quarter Back should be able to move the chains, but there are some questions about the Baltimore Defensive unit that will be without veteran leader Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike.
This could offer the Detroit Lions an opportunity to establish the run, which is hugely important to them on the Offensive side of the ball, even without Taylor Decker who looks to be downgraded and potentially having to sit out. Taylor Decker is a key part of the Offensive Line, but the Lions do have a couple of Running Backs that will feel they can hurt the Ravens on the ground.
Jared Goff will be a different test for the Ravens if he is playing in third and manageable and having the play-action open up for him. The Quarter Back will have noted some of the plays that this Baltimore Secondary have already allowed this season, and he has been well protected and will have some time to make the throws down the field.
It is a game where turnovers will be key, while home field could also be a determining factor in a game where the two Offenses could be moving the ball with a lot of consistency.
The Lions do have a very good record as the underdog since Head Coach Dan Campbell came in to reset the culture, while Lamar Jackson has not been the best home favourite to get behind.
However, those spots are 0-1 (Detroit) and 1-0 (Lamar Jackson and Baltimore) in the early stages of the 2025 season, while the Ravens are 9-5 against the spread when set as the home favourite on Monday Night Football.
This is a dangerous number, but the Baltimore Ravens can find a way to win this one by around a Touchdown margin to move above 0.500 for the first time this season.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.84 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
No comments:
Post a Comment