The expanded Playoff format in the world of College Football does offer some more room for error for the very best teams in the nation, but it still feels like some are teetering on the edge of a cliff if they are to lose a second game in Week 3.
Teams playing in the SEC know that non-Conference defeats could be tough to shake off if they were to lose to a couple of the top contenders within the Conference, while others, like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, will see their schedule as being too weak even if they make a run following a second defeat.
The Playoff Committee have made it clear that they like to see more competition and that will mean not punishing a team for a loss to another top team and so there are some bigger, more important non-Conference games scheduled than ever before.
Week 3 is also bringing together teams from within Conferences that are looking to make an early statement and the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville is going to be really fun to watch.
While we do have some very good looking games in Week 3, there are also some teams being asked to lay big spreads and that means there is a pressure to impress before moving into tougher parts of the schedule.
It all adds up to what should be another fun week around the nation with games being played across several time zones on Saturday.
Factors meant there were no College Football Picks in Week 2, but the idea is to bounce back in Week 3.
After a good start to the season, Week 1 proved to be something of a headache with some late plays moving against the selections.
Hopefully the upcoming slate of games can help turn things back around.
Oregon Ducks @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: The first season in the Big Ten Conference went as well as the Oregon Ducks (2-0) would have hoped as they won the Championship with an unbeaten record. That included wins over the likes of the then defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines as well as Ohio State and Penn State, but the season might have felt underwhelming when beating in the College Football Playoff as the Number 1 Seed.
That defeat was against the aforementioned Buckeyes in a rematch, a team who would go on to win the National Championship, and so motivation is high within the Oregon camp.
They have reloaded effectively and new Quarter Back Dante Moore has shown the benefits of sitting behind Dillon Gabriel and learning the Offensive plan last year.
Oregon are clearly a team on a mission and the blowout win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys will have certainly gotten the attention of the rest of the loaded, competitive Big Ten, as well as the very best teams across the nation.
The Ducks do not have to face Michigan or Ohio State in the regular season this time around, but they will want to keep the momentum behind them ahead of a rivalry game against Oregon State next week before closing out September with a road game at the Penn State Nittany Lions, the team that came into the season as the third favourite to win the Conference.
These are big challenges for the Ducks, but they will not want to overlook Northwestern Wildcats (1-1) in what is a very early start for Oregon.
It is the first true road game of the season, even if Northwestern are currently playing in a couple of homes while renovations continue at their real Stadium, and the early start is expected to offer some challenges. Head Coach Dan Lanning is not looking for excuses though and he is going to be hugely encouraged by what he has seen from the Ducks early in the season.
The Wildcats finished last season with a 4-8 record having overachieved in Head Coach David Braun's first season in charge, and they have already been well beaten by the Tulane Green Wave. A tough schedule suggests the Wildcats will do well to surpass the two Conference wins earned last season and they have lost starting Running Back Cam Porter to a season-ending injury.
Trying to establish the run would have been a plan for the Wildcats if only to give the Defensive unit a chance to rest and recover, but that would have been challenging even if Porter had been able to suit up.
All of the pressure could be on Quarter Back Preston Stone, who threw 4 Interceptions in the loss to the Green Wave, and he is almost certainly going to be put under pressure by the Oregon pass rush when throwing in this good looking Secondary.
Stopping the Oregon Ducks is going to be hugely challenging judging by what this Offensive Line has been able to do and Northwestern's Defensive Line have not really been very stout up front. Dante Moore's main task early on will be to hand the ball off to any of a number of Running Backs and allow the Offensive Line to punish the Wildcats on the ground, which in turn will open up his passing lanes as the game develops.
The Offensive Line have not only opened up big holes for the rushing plays, but they have kept the pocket clean for the Quarter Back and the limited Wildcats pass rush is not expected to rattle Moore.
It should mean another big win for the Oregon Ducks, who have outscored the first two opponents by 46 and 66 points respectively.
Blowouts on the road are much tougher to achieve, but Oregon did win a couple of road games by 35 points last season and they may reach that kind of margin in this one against a Wildcats team expected to have another year of difficulties.
Last season Northwestern finished with a 1-3 record against the spread as the home underdog and only a sleepy performance from the Oregon Ducks is expected to allow this game to be close.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This may only be the start of the second year in charge of the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-1), but Kalen DeBoer may struggle to hold onto his job if his team lose to another non-Conference opponent in Week 3. They bounced back from a really poor performance against the Florida State Seminoles to beat UL Monroe, but expectations are always huge around Alabama and missing out on another College Football Playoff will likely spell the end of DeBoer's time as Head Coach.
The chances of reaching the Playoff will depend on how Alabama go the rest of the way, although it is very difficult to see how they would recover from a second defeat this early in the season. In two weeks time they have to travel to Athens to play the Georgia Bulldogs and the likes of Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU are still on deck.
We are yet to see how the loss to the Seminoles will stack up, but losing to the Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) might be harder to explain away with the visiting team just 14-13 under the guidance of Head Coach Luke Fickell.
The Badgers have yet to be tested in the 2025 season, but are expected to be without starting Quarter Back Billy Edwards Jr, even if he is looking to travel with the team. Instead the focus will be on Danny O'Neil who has experience as a starter with the San Diego State Aztecs, but who will rarely have been up against anything that closely resembles the Alabama Defensive unit.
They shut out UL Monroe last week after underperforming against the Seminoles and the Crimson Tide Defensive Line will certainly feel they can win at the Line of Scrimmage against this Badgers Offensive Line. This time they are not facing a dual-threat Quarter Back and so Alabama can play the game with a bit more confidence up front and force Danny O'Neil to try and beat them through the air.
Wisconsin's Offensive Line may feel they can give O'Neil some time in the pocket, but he is going to be throwing from third and long at times and against an Alabama Secondary that is looking very strong.
It may be tough for the Badgers to move the ball with consistency, but they will be motivated for a big performance having been thumped by the Crimson Tide in Madison last season.
Much like Alabama, the Badgers will look to try and win on the Line of Scrimmage when they are on the Defensive side of the ball and try and force the pressure onto Quarter Back Ty Simpson of the home team. In recent years the Crimson Tide Offensive Line have been big and strong though and you have to believe that they can get something going on the ground.
Easing the burden on Ty Simpson is important, as is the fact that he will have one of his top Receivers back when Ryan Williams is expected to be have passed through the concussion protocol. He looked to be growing into the game against Florida State before putting in a big performance against ULM, and being in front of the chains should make the play-calling that much more comfortable for Simpson to execute.
You have to believe the Crimson Tide will show their qualities in this one, especially as the hosts, and they have been a decent home favourite to get behind.
This is a big spread, but with two weeks coming up to prepare for Georgia, the Crimson Tide can leave it all out on the field and they can put a thumping on Wisconsin for a second season in a row. A couple of turnovers will help, and the feeling is that the Defensive unit can make enough big plays to offer up some short field opportunities, which will ultimately allow the home team to pull clear of the spread set.
Central Michigan Chippewas @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: It was a really disappointing season as defending National Champions and the Michigan Wolverines (1-1) are trying to bounce back from a defeat at the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 2. They finished with an 8-5 record in 2024, but the Wolverines were the last team to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes and the fans will be demanding they find a way to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff this time around.
Losing to the Sooners stings, but the Michigan Wolverines do have a schedule that will give them a chance to prove they are worthy of having a spot in the twelve team Playoff later in the year.
Michigan have a big game coming up at the home of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, but the defeat last week should have refocused the team, even if Head Coach Sherrone Moore is serving the first of a two game suspension. He will be watching on and looking for a reaction from his team.
The Wolverines look to be facing a good opponent in the Central Michigan Chippewas (1-1) who are in the first year under a new Head Coach having finished 4-8 last season. The blowout loss at the home of the Pittsburgh Panthers is a reminder that it will take time to learn the methods of Matt Drinkel, a Head Coach who wants his team to run the ball and set things up from there.
It was a real problem for the Chippewas in that defeat to the Panthers and they are not expected to have a lot of joy going up against this Michigan Defensive Line. Despite the defeat last week to the Sooners, Michigan played well on this side of the ball and they have the strength and power up front to close down the running lanes and force Central Michigan to take to the air.
Rod Moore could be back to play some snaps in the Secondary after a serious injury suffered last season and that is going to be a boost for the Wolverines. They are also facing a Central Michigan team giving all of their Quarter Backs a chance to impress and the Wolverines should be able to contain much of the Offensive threat over the course of the four Quarters to be played.
This game also gives the Wolverines a chance to open up the playbook Offensively as they look to find some rhythm on this side of the ball.
The Offensive Line should be able to have their way against the Chippewas Defensive Line and that is going to open things up for the Michigan Wolverines and their young Quarter Back. The likelihood is that Michigan will rip off some big gains on the ground and that should really give Bryce Underwood an opportunity to show why he was so heavily recruited ahead of his College career.
Bryce Underwood found it tough against the Sooners, but this is a much weaker Secondary and the Quarter Back should be playing from manageable field positions.
This is the biggest spread that Michigan will have faced since Jim Harbaugh returned to the NFL, and they failed to cover as a 20+ favourite on two occasions last season. The Wolverines also failed to cover as a big home favourite in the win over New Mexico in Week 1, but the Chippewas were well beaten by the Panthers and could struggle to stick with the angry hosts in Week 3.
Western Michigan Broncos @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Four teams made it to the College Football Playoff out of the Big Ten Conference last season and all won double digit games. The exception was the Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0) who had a 10-3 record after winning the Bowl Game, but losses to Penn State, Oregon and Minnesota in the regular season meant missing out.
However, the Fighting Illini have moved into 2025 with a lot of confidence having returned so many starters from last season on both sides of the ball.
Two crushing wins to open this season has only built the confidence further and Illinois did impress in the victory over the Duke Blue Devils last week.
The biggest test for the Fighting Illini is not to overlook the Western Michigan Broncos (2-0) ahead of a big Conference opener against the Indiana Hoosiers.
For as long as the Illinois Offensive starters are playing, the Fighting Illini should be comfortable moving the chains. The Offensive Line is expected to set the table for the rest of the team by opening up some big lanes on the ground against what has been a struggling Western Michigan Defensive Line and this should also mean Quarter Back Luke Altmyer is able to build on what has been a very good start to the season.
The experienced Quarter Back had 22 Touchdown passes to go with 6 Interceptions last season and he has begun this year with 6 Touchdown passes without throwing a single pick. With the team expected to be moving the ball on the ground, Altmyer should be given a bit more protection and the Fighting Illini should have a comfortable day Offensively and keep the points ticking over as they have in the opening two games.
After struggling in the opening defeat to the Michigan State Spartans, Western Michigan's Offensive performance was stronger in the Week 2 defeat.
However, this is another step up for the Broncos Offense which is not very experienced and it will be tough to pick up the yards on the ground as they were doing in the loss to North Texas. This week they are facing an Illinois Defensive Line that has been very strong in the opening couple of games and it will put pressure on Broc Lowry or Brady Jones when they are playing out of the Quarter Back position.
As teams have been chasing points against Illinois, there has been some successes had against this Secondary, which will also be happy to give up some yardage with big leads to protect. However, we have not seen much from the Broncos passing game to believe they can sustain drives and failing to run the ball efficiently will also mean having to face this Fighting Illini pass rush that has been very good.
Illinois are not a team that have been used to being favoured at home over the last twelve months, but they have a 2-1-1 record against the spread in that setting, including covering in Week 1. This is a big number, but the Offensive performances will certainly encourage Fighting Illini backers, as will the fact that the Broncos are just 2-4 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of the 2024 season.
MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 21.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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