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Saturday, 15 February 2020

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 15th)

We are down to the final four at the tournaments that have been played this week and at the same time the Qualifiers will be beginning for the four new events that are set to be played over the next several days.

I am still looking to round off this week with a positive run that can ensure a winning record and adding to the 2020 totals. That may finally be decided by how the Picks from the Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Saturday go. There are some good looking Semi Finals to be played through the course of the day, although I am going to have to add any selections from ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York to this thread once those markets are put together.

The other tournaments have managed to put some early markets together for their Semi Final matches and you can read the Picks below.

Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: For the third match in a row Pablo Carreno Busta needed a lot of time on the court to come through a three setter. The accumulated fatigue could be a potential issue for the Spaniard, but there has to be some confidence in Carreno Busta's play having saved Match Points on his way to beating Jannik Sinner on Friday.

That confidence can be built up by winning consecutive matches in a final set Tie Breaker, but Carreno Busta might have been able to win matches a little easier if he had not dropped the second set in every match played this week. Pablo Carreno Busta has also been saving a lot of Break Points so far in Rotterdam having faced twenty-three in the last two matches while creating just ten of his own.

The serve has been in decent nick throughout 2020 for Pablo Carreno Busta and he has won 66% of the points played behind serve in Rotterdam and has held 87% of the service games played. However there is a reason the results have not been as good as Carreno Busta would have wanted and that is largely down to the struggles he has had on the return of serve with breaks of serve in just 14% of return gams played so far this week.

It is going to be a big test for Pablo Carreno Busta on the return when facing Felix Auger Aliassime whose numbers in 2020 have been significantly better than the ones the Spaniard has been producing. The young player has spent a lot less time on court so far this week which may be a key difference on the day, while Auger Aliassime has some strong numbers behind him.

The Canadian has held 87% of service games played so far this week and he is winning 68% of service points played which should help Auger Aliassime try and stay on top of Pablo Carreno Busta. While those numbers are similar to Pablo Carreno Busta's, Felix Auger Aliassime has broken in 25% of return games played and that is where he can have a little more success than his opponent and thus get into a position to not only win the match, but also to cover the mark.

It has to be said that the return can sometimes be a little limited from Felix Auger Aliassime, but he should be the fresher player and has shown significantly better form so far this week. There is enough here to make me believe the younger player is worth getting behind here and that is what I will do.

Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Both of these Rotterdam Semi Finalists had to win a very tight opening set on a Tie Breaker and both will know the match could have easily begun in a very different way. Ultimately both Gael Monfils and Filip Krajinovic did win those Tie Breakers and then were deserved winners as they get set for the second week in a row.

Last week Gael Monfils beat Filip Krajinovic in the Montpellier Semi Final and he went on to win the title there and he is looking to defend his title here in Rotterdam too. The Frenchman's return has been huge for him so far this week and he has broken opponents regularly throughout the tournament and it might be the key difference between these two in this Semi Final.

It won't be easy for Monfils because Filip Krajinovic has been serving very well in the matches he has played here. He has held in 93% of service games played although that is a mark that is significantly better than where Krajinovic has been with his serve in the last three seasons.

Even this season Krajinovic has held 78% of the service games played on the hard courts so the feeling is that his mark will come back to his usual average at some point before the tournament is completed. Filip Krajinovic has returned well enough too as he has been able to free his arms thanks to the confidence he has earned from his serving, but the mark is some way below where Gael Monfils has been with his return game an I still think that gives the higher Ranked player a real advantage.

In their two previous hard court matches against one another, Filip Krajinovic has held 76% of the service games played compared with Gael Monfils' 87% mark. The match last week was fairly competitive, but Monfils was not really threatened on his own serve and there was a 10% difference between the two players in favour of Monfils when it came to percentage of points won behind the serve.

Neither player has been taxed in terms of the length of time spent on court and so I do expect to see the best of both of them. My edge has to be with Gael Monfils whose serve might be enough of a difference on the day to help the Frenchman win and cover.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-16, + 6.02 Units (74 Units Staked, + 8.14% Yield)

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