The two WTA Semi Final matches and the remaining ATP Quarter Final matches are set to be played in Miami on Day 10 as the tournament begins to wind down.
I have added the Tennis Picks from the two Quarter Finals set to be played on Thursday and will add any more selections to this post in the next few hours once the full WTA markets are available.
[UPDATE] Wednesday was a terrible day for the Tennis Picks, but I am hoping for much better on Thursday. I have only the two Picks from the ATP Quarter Finals today with the two WTA Semi Finals looking like they could be very competitive.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: The performances from Stefanos Tsitsipas have been strong throughout 2021, although I do think he needs to win a big title to underline his progress and also to show himself that he is capable of doing that. The level being produced in Miami will be encouraging for the Greek star and he is rightly favoured to beat an opponent he has bettered in their careers so far.
That is taking nothing away from Hubert Hurkacz who has surprisingly made his way through to this Masters Quarter Final after an inconsistent season before heading to this part of the United States. He has put up plenty of wins, but it has been a stop-start kind of season for the Pole, although Hurkacz will be very happy with his own level going into the Quarter Final.
Wins over Denis Shapovalov and Milos Raonic in the last couple of Rounds are impressive results which will give Hubert Hurkacz some real confidence, but he is going to be under pressure to make sure he is serving as well as he has been. In the three wins in Miami, Hubert Hurkacz has held 95% of the service games played and that has allowed him to take chances on the return of serve, although it can't be ignored that he has only broken in 11% of return games.
Now he will be challenged by Stefanos Tsitsipas who has been serving just as well as Hurkacz, but has been getting a lot more joy out of the return of serve. Granted he has not played the kind of servers that Hubert Hurkacz has in this tournament, but Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel his own serve can keep his opponent under pressure and his 27% mark in being able to break in return games is very encouraging.
In the head to head it is Tsitsipas who has dominated the serve and I think that is going to be a potential key for him in this match. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won five of the previous six matches between the players and all of those have taken place on the hard courts, while he has held serve in 91% of service games played compared with Hubert Hurkacz who has managed to do that in 80% of his own service games.
These two have played some close matches as the Hurkacz serve has been big enough to at least keep him competitive even when under pressure, but eventually it has broken down enough for Stefanos Tsitsipas to take advantage. The latter also seems to be playing at a very high level in Miami, especially on the return, and I think that helps him find the breaks he will need to cover this mark.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Sebastian Korda: On a first look this looks like a very big mark for Andrey Rublev to cover against a young and impressive Sebastian Korda who has looked strong making his way through the draw. The latter might be the one grabbing the headlines in Miami, but he is going to have to go some to match the kind of level that Andrey Rublev is capable of producing and the Russian looks like a man on a mission to really announce himself on the ATP Tour.
Not many will overlook Rublev these days as he has moved into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he has yet to make it beyond the Quarter Final of any Grand Slam while this is only the second Quarter Final he has reached at Masters level. That has to be a concern for a player who is looking to show that he is amongst the best of the up and coming players on the Tour and should be set alongside Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas as a potential future Slam Champion.
At this moment Andrey Rublev is someone capable of beating those he is expected to, but he has yet to kick on and really start beating those in and around his World Ranking on a consistent basis. His performances overall have been strong with some eye catching numbers on the hard courts which make him a player that deserves plenty of respect.
Overall Andrey Rublev has shown he is one of the top hard court players throughout 2021 which followed the strong ending to 2020, but he has been even better in Miami this week. He has yet to have his serve broken and has won 77% of the points played behind serve, while Rublev has won 48% of return points played which has led to a break in 44% of return games.
I do think the talented Sebastian Korda can test Andrey Rublev in all facets of his game and he has impressed in his four wins in Miami. He has reached his career best World Ranking on the eve of the Miami Masters and Korda is set for another jump having reached the Quarter Final of a Masters event for the first time, while the numbers this week have been really impressive.
His return game is a real strength and it will be interesting to see how much he can get into the Rublev service games, while Sebastian Korda has a decent serve for a 20 year old who should only improve as his experience builds on the Tour. There are signs he is learning from his previous matches already, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Korda was only 2-3 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the Miami Masters beginning.
Sebastian Korda has returned well in those matches, but his serve still has work to do and I think that is where Andrey Rublev has the edge between these players at this stage of their careers.
Meeting for the first time could mean there is time needed for Rublev to figure out the best way to approach this Quarter Final, but I think he is playing at a standard that may be a little too hot for Korda to handle. It is a wide handicap, but Andrey Rublev can put together the strong returning to put himself in a position to cover it.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Masters Update: 31-25, + 3 Points (114 Units Staked, + 2.63% Yield)
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