Day 6 was a difficult one for the Tennis Picks, although what can you do when your selection wins more points than his opponent but is beaten in straight sets? Simply put, that won't happen too often and it added to the frustration of Cristian Garin's late set collapses in his own straight sets defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas, although that one was much more deserving than Alexander Zverev's defeat to David Goffin.
I am not going to be too concerned about the results this week, although I do demand a lot better from myself.
Big events will continue to be played in the lead up to the French Open and I do think the goal to be in a positive spot going into the second Grand Slam of the season is achievable.
On Friday we are down to the Quarter Final matches in Monte Carlo and you can see my thoughts below.
Daniel Evans vs David Goffin is an interesting match that is well worth keeping tabs on- the former had the huge win over Novak Djokovic while the latter was very lucky to win his match with Alexander Zverev and I think you could make a case for both Evans and Goffin in this Quarter Final. My lean is towards Evans, but backing up a win like the one he had on Thursday is never easy, while the British player has never been at his most comfortable on the clay courts.
On the other hand David Goffin has been a solid clay court player in the past, but he wasn't at his best on Thursday and looks a short priced favourite. The loss in the sole professional match against Daniel Evans is also something to consider, albeit a match played on the hard courts, and this is a Quarter Final that will give us some information that could be important to use in the tournaments to be played the rest of the clay court season.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: There is no doubt that Stefanos Tsitsipas is a solid clay court player and before the Semi Final run at the Australian Open it was the French Open where the Greek player had won the most Grand Slam matches. He is also a former Semi Finalist at the Rome Masters and a Finalist at the Madrid Masters and Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying his best run in Monte Carlo having lost in the Second Round and Third Round in previous appearances here.
In saying all that I did think a clay court specialist like Cristian Garin could ask questions of Tsitsipas and push him when they met in the Third Round.
Instead of that, Stefanos Tsitsipas was a very comfortable and deserving winner on the day with a solid serve and strong returning being too consistent for the Chilean to deal with. It was a windy day in Monaco, but the Greek player handled the conditions pretty well and I think that will set him up to do the same when facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Quarter Final in what looks like being another potentially blustery day.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is a solid clay courter, but not an outstanding one. He would have been a player comfortable when on this surface and his three wins this week have looked pretty good on paper, although Alex De Minaur is not really a strong player on the red dirt and both Matteo Berrettini and Lucas Pouille have been dealing with injuries that makes their names more valuable than their current standing.
Credit has to be given to the Spaniard for coming through those matches and all in straight sets, but Davidovich Fokina will know this Quarter Final is a big step up for him. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was beaten really comfortably in Marbella in the Second Round last week and he looks to be operating at a level this season which is going to be hard for him to maintain if his previous years on the clay courts are anything to go by.
Of course players can improve, but Davidovich Fokina is someone who has regularly struggled to take care of his serve on the clay courts and the 81% of service games he has held in his small sample of clay court matches in 2021 is considerably higher than the usual low 70's percentage mark. At 21 years old perhaps the Spaniard is coming into his own on the main ATP Tour and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas can ill-afford to look beyond this match.
The return is a key part of the Davidovich Fokina game, although it is hard to know how much joy he is going to get from Stefanos Tsitsipas' serving level. The top ten Ranked player does have a big serve which will mean he is in control of rallies on the slower surface and Stefanos Tsitsipas has also been returning well enough against what have looked like being stronger players than the one he is facing in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt this is a big mark if Stefanos Tsitsipas is not at his best, but he has looked focused in his two wins and I think he will be a little too strong for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in this Quarter Final. The first set should be competitive, but if Tsitsipas can get in front he should be able to exert enough pressure to break through the World Number 58 and I think that will likely mean a cover of this number.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The biggest worry for me ahead of this Monte Carlo Quarter Final is the amount of time Casper Ruud had to spend on court to finally get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta in the Third Round. They were almost at it for three hours, but Ruud showed his very strong level on a clay court to rally and eventually deserve his place in this Quarter Final.
Unlike the Grand Slam events, Casper Ruud does not have a lot of recovery time and the biggest factor opposing him here has to be potential fatigue both physically and emotionally after coming through such an epic three setter.
The Covid-19 shutdown of the Tennis Tour twelve months ago meant the Monte Carlo Masters was one of a number of clay court tournaments that had to be cancelled in 2020. It does mean that Fabio Fognini is the defending Champion and so he will be confident he can take advantage of any fatigue being felt by Casper Ruud.
The Italian has won his three matches quite impressively this week and it is the return of serve which has really caught the eye. Fabio Fognini has needed less than ninety minutes to win each match played in Monte Carlo and he has yet to drop a set, but he will also be well aware of the kind of danger that Casper Ruud brings to the court.
In their two previous matches, Casper Ruud has completely dominated Fabio Fognini and it has seen the veteran struggle to break the serve and also seemingly under constant pressure behind his own serve. The last of those matches came in Hamburg on the clay courts in the lead up to the 2020 French Open and Casper Ruud held 88% of his service games compared with Fognini's 56% mark and it resulted in a comfortable 6-3, 6-3 win for the Norwegian player.
The September clay court events didn't really sit well with Fabio Fognini last year though and the conditions are going to be considerably different in April in Monte Carlo. However, Fognini may not really appreciate the match up against an opponent who has won 70% of the points played behind serve this week and who has faced just seven break points in total while creating twenty-one of his own.
Casper Ruud's efforts to come back and beat Pablo Carreno Busta will stand him in good stead in the future, but I do wonder how much will be in the tank for this one. However I do think the match up is not a bad one for him and at 22 years old there should be the youthful exuberance which helps Ruud get the better of the defending Champion in this Quarter Final.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: After deciding to withdraw from a couple of tournaments following his run to the Australian Open Quarter Final, Rafael Nadal is back in a big way in his favourite time of the year. The Spaniard is going to be the favourite to win the French Open yet again when it is played in May, and Nadal has looked very comfortable in his two wins in Monte Carlo during which time he has given up just five games.
Unsurprisingly he is a big favourite to move through to the Semi Final when he takes on Andrey Rublev and there are some negative factors against the Russian player despite the fact he has entrenched himself in the top 10 of the World Rankings. He had not shown a lot of consistent form on the clay courts before his time on the surface in 2020 and Rublev has won a couple of matches to earn his place in this Quarter Final.
The negative factors are clear though- first up is the fact that Rublev had to spend almost three hours on court to finally break through Roberto Bautista Agut and the second is his poor performances in the two previous losses to Rafael Nadal.
Andrey Rublev did very well to just about rally for a victory over Bautista Agut, but that Spanish player is significantly weaker than Rafael Nadal on the court. The Russian is returning well, which isn't a big surprise, but Rublev is likely to be put under immense pressure on his own serve having won just 61% of points behind the serve in this tournament so far.
In 2020 Rafael Nadal only played ten clay courts matches, but he produced a 9-1 record as he won the French Open again and Nadal also put together some very impressive numbers in compiling that record. He looks to have picked up from where he left off on the clay courts by winning 71% of the service points played in his two wins in Monte Carlo, while easily the most impressive aspect of the Nadal wins is the fact he has broken in 71% of return games played and has won 58% of points played on the opponent's serve.
I would expect Andrey Rublev to challenge him more than both Federico Delbonis and Grigor Dimitrov have been able to do, but Rafael Nadal has won both matches against this opponent on the hard courts and has not dropped a set. The Spaniard has broken in 45% of return games played against Rublev on the faster surfaces and I do think he is going to be able to put the serve under even more pressure here.
To add to that, Rafael Nadal has held in 95% of the service games played against Andrey Rublev and I think he will be able to wear down this opponent and produce an impressive win. It will be the kind of victory that would just remind the rest of the Tour that Nadal is still head and shoulders above most on the clay courts and add to the aura that he has built on this surface throughout his career.
Even if Andrey Rublev is able to just force Nadal to dig deeper than his previous two opponents in one set, I do think the tough Third Round match on Thursday will work against him. And if Rublev is to drop a competitive set, I do think Nadal is going to be able to work through the gears to pull away for a comfortable win when all is said and done and I will back the former World Number 1 to cover this mark.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Masters Update: 5-8, - 7.28 Units (26 Units Staked, - 28% Yield)
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