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Friday, 16 April 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 16-22)

We are down to the final seven games for most Premier League teams, but a few of them have additional Cup commitments which have to be managed around those League games.

This weekend the FA Cup Semi Finals are set to be played on Saturday and Sunday, but the congested season means the Premier League games that have been postponed so those can be played have only been pushed into the midweek. That has an implication for Fantasy Premier League players too with GameWeek 32 being played from Friday through to Thursday next week and then GameWeek 33 beginning next Friday.

I will have a few thoughts on what was a difficult personal GameWeek 31 and my feelings for GameWeek 32 below, but first I will put down my analysis of how I feel the Premier League fixtures will go across the next six days.

I will add my opinion regarding the fixtures that have been postponed from this weekend and set to be played on Tuesday through Thursday after the deadline for GameWeek 32 has passed as far as the Fantasy Football game is concerned.


Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It hasn't been that long since both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur would have had genuine ambitions of finishing in the top four of the Premier League table. However, neither team has been consistent enough over the last several weeks to keep up with the sides above them in the table and this is almost a 'loser goes home' kind of contest.

Those are normally reserved for the PlayOff Series in American sports, but you do have to think the losing team here will be struggling for a European place let alone pushing towards the top four. Everton are 8th and Tottenham Hotspur are 7th in the Premier League table and there is already a considerable gap between both and the six teams above them.

The situation should mean this is an attacking game of football considering the draw does very little for either, while the other factor is that neither Everton nor Tottenham Hotspur can really have a lot of faith in their defensive strength to hold onto a narrow lead if they get into that position.

Everton are also being hurt by a huge injury list and they have a number of key players that are hoping the few days between Monday and Friday is enough for them to be passed fit for selection. The most notable is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and it does make it feel like this is a fixture that a relatively healthier Tottenham Hotspur can take advantage of.

They are not easy to trust on current form though having blown leads in back to back Premier League games against Newcastle United and Manchester United. In saying that, Tottenham Hotspur have the attacking players that can cause plenty of problems for Everton even if there is a feeling they are defensively extremely vulnerable.

I can't imagine it will be as high-scoring as the FA Cup tie these two played in back in February, but I can see another game with at least three goals shared out. 3 of the last 4 at Goodison Park between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have ended up that way and I don't think this is a fixture in which either team can afford to sit back and hope things work out for them.

My lean is that Tottenham Hotspur will find a way to secure the win, but it could be a fun fixture for the neutral to watch. With the defensive problems that have been evident for both teams, I think it would be a surprise if there are not at least three goals shared out between two outsiders for the top four places.


Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: If you go back seven days this would have been a huge fixture for both Newcastle United and West Ham United, but after results last time out it now begins to feel like a fixture where there is a lot more on the line for the visitors.

A Newcastle United win and a Fulham defeat last weekend means the home team are now 6 points clear of the bottom three, while just 2 points separates Leicester City in 3rd and Chelsea in 5th place with West Ham United sandwiched between those two clubs.

The early kick off on Saturday afternoon could be a good game to watch for the neutral though and that is largely down to the performances of the two teams in the last couple of weeks. Both Newcastle United and West Ham United have been scoring goals for fun, but they have also displayed a huge amount of defensive vulnerability and that should mean an attacking fixture is in the offing.

Games between these two clubs have tended to be high-scoring ones and 6 of the last 8 overall have ended with at least three goals shared out. The last 4 at St James' Park have all ended that way too and Newcastle United and West Ham United head into this weekend having conceded at least two goals in 3 straight Premier League games either side of the international break.

Add in the fact that both have scored at least twice in both games since the March internationals and chances have tended to be created at a good clip and you do have to expect this fixture to be an exciting one. Neither team has looked capable of keeping a clean sheet and injuries are not exactly going to help on that front and this feels like another Premier League game that should produce goals.

16 of the 20 Premier League games played since the final international break of the 2020/21 season have ended with at least three goals shared out and I think this one will follow that short-term trend. An early goal will really kick the fixture off and the recent performances of the two teams suggest goals are the most likely outcome of the fixture.


Wolves v Sheffield United Pick: There isn't much on the line for Wolves and Sheffield United and it can be difficult for managers to keep players focused when that becomes the case.

I do think both sets of players do have something to prove in their remaining seven Premier League games to make sure they are still relevant next season when changes are expected at both Wolves and Sheffield United.

A lack of goals has really hurt Wolves this season and ever since Raul Jimenez went down with a serious injury, while the same can be said for Sheffield United who simply have displayed a lack of quality. Poor signings have not helped and the departure of Chris Wilder has not really sparked anything from the players either as Sheffield United have lost 5 in a row overall and 6 away games in succession.

It is very difficult to trust Wolves to win any game of football at odds on, but they have been creating chances in recent home games. Losing Pedro Neto is another blow for this team, but even without their talented creative force you do have to believe Wolves will have just enough to edge past a Sheffield United team who have been porous defensively.

The most likely outcome looks to be a narrow home win for Wolves- I do think Sheffield United will try and make life difficult, but they have not been good enough at the back and teams are creating a lot of good chances against them which is likely going to be the case again this weekend as Wolves earn the three points on the night.


Arsenal v Fulham PickThere should still be plenty of motivation in the home dressing room after Arsenal made it through to the Europa League Semi Final and Mikel Arteta is trying to get his team to put a consistent run together.

Playing European Football is important for the development of the young players and there is still a hope that a strong end to this season will be good enough for Arsenal to at least be able to do that. Of course winning the Europa League would be a huge boost as it would mean a return to the Champions League, but Arsenal can't really afford to place all their eggs in one basket and have to keep the momentum of the last week behind them.

The Gunners have scored seven goals in back to back games over the last seven days, but the home form has been a little erratic. Arsenal have not won any of their last 3 at the Emirates Stadium, but that won't have Mikel Arteta drop his standards and he will be keen for his team to secure two more wins before they head to Villarreal in the Europa League Semi Final First Leg.

Returning from Prague to play this Sunday game is not an easy spot for Arsenal, but they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games after a Europa League tie. Ironically the one exception was after a Europa League tie played at the Emirates Stadium and the 3 wins have come when travelling back from mainland Europe, so there really are no excuses that the manager will offer for his team if they don't win this game.

Arsenal have been really good going forward in their last 3 games in all competitions and have backed that up with good looking defensive performances. The consecutive clean sheets will build confidence and there is plenty of pressure on their visitors after results last weekend.

Those results have left Fulham in 18th place in the Premier League table as they were beaten for a fourth Premier League game in a row. A win for Newcastle United means Fulham are now 6 points from safety with six Premier League games left to play and Scott Parker will have to pick a side that will eventually have to take risks.

It is hard to imagine that will be enough for Fulham to find the points they need to avoid relegation especially as they have continued to struggle for goals. While they have improved defensively from the early weeks of the season, Fulham are still guilty of too many mistakes and that has seen them punished.

This club have never won at Arsenal and I do think it is going to be difficult for Fulham to change that this weekend. They have had a week to prepare, but you do have to wonder if the confidence of the squad has been destroyed by the results of last weekend which means they could also be vulnerable to an Arsenal team looking to keep the wins coming.

I expect Fulham to be plenty motivated as they search for the points, but the quality has been lacking and Arsenal can hurt them on the counter attack if the visitors have to take risks. Returning from European action to play a team who have had a week off is not easy, but Arsenal have managed to produce a number of wins in that situation already this calendar year and can do the same here.


Manchester United v Burnley PickA 2-0 win in Spain had put Manchester United in command of their Europa League Quarter Final and the early goal on Thursday night made the Second Leg a comfortable evening at Old Trafford for the players. It has given Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the chance to rest some of his squad who have been stretched by this congested season and having no travel should mean no excuses for Manchester United when returning to Premier League action on Sunday.

They are almost certainly going to earn a top four spot in the Premier League, but the manager would love to see his team try and put some late pressure on Manchester City. There are 11 points between these rivals, but a win for Manchester United would mean they are back to single digits behind their rivals and with 18 points still to play for.

It is very unlikely that Manchester United could win the title now, but winning games is also important to maintain the momentum that has been earned since the March internationals were completed. Manchester United have won 4 in a row in all competitions since then and that includes back to back wins at Old Trafford against Brighton and Granada.

Manchester United have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League games here, but they won't be taking anything for granted when facing Burnley. In recent years Manchester United have played well at Turf Moor, but amazingly they have not led against Burnley at Old Trafford since February 2015 and they have met them 4 times here following that 3-1 victory.

3 of those had ended in draws before Burnley won here last season- in fact Burnley have led 0-2 in each of their last 3 games at Old Trafford but the first 2 saw Manchester United rally late for draws and they were not able to do that in their 0-2 defeat to Burnley in January 2020.

Burnley have led 0-2 in their last 2 away Premier League games at Everton and Southampton, but the last of those ended up with a 3-2 win for The Saints. With their recent history at Old Trafford, Burnley have to be respected here despite their current position in the League table and they have also won half of their last 6 away Premier League games.

However, this is a team that has given up some big chances in recent games and the potential absence of Nick Pope could make it more difficult for Burnley to earn a result against an in-form Manchester United team. They may cause some problems from set pieces and getting the ball into the box from wide areas, but containing Manchester United won't be easy.

The home team have been creating chances in recent games and have attacking threats who should be feeling good about themselves. The poor record against Burnley in recent fixtures at Old Trafford has to be one that Manchester United want to change and I think they will be too good in the final third for their visitors as the home team win and cover the Asian Handicap mark.


Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The playing surface at Elland Road is far from the best in the Premier League and there is going to be changes made between this season and the next, but it should not be one that prevents Leeds United and Liverpool producing a game filled with goals on Monday Night Football.

These two teams still have some real ambitions to fulfil in the 2020/21 season and this is a big game for both clubs, while both teams are in decent form. Leeds United and Liverpool have both won 3 Premier League games in a row, but it should be noted that the underlying statistics suggest the visitors are playing at a consistently higher level in those games than Leeds United.

All credit has to be given to Leeds United for their wins over Fulham, Sheffield United and Manchester City, but they were a touch fortunate in 2 of those victories. On another day they would have been beaten comfortably at Manchester City last weekend having punished their hosts with their limited attacks, but Leeds United do play an attacking brand of football which will challenge this makeshift Liverpool defence.

There is no denying that Liverpool are missing some key players in their backline, but they have still been able to produce better than some would have expected. The centre half pairing are not being chopped and changed as much and there is an understanding developing, even if the young defenders are not able to completely erase defensive mistakes.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise to anyone if Leeds United were to score in this fixture, but they could be without Raphinha and that is a big blow for the home team. Defensively they are without Liam Cooper and I do think this Liverpool team are looking like they are not too far away from their best in the final third.

The visitors have been creating good chances and the fixture list remaining looks like one that will give them every chance of finishing in the top four of the Premier League. This is one of the more difficult games left on their list, but Liverpool are good enough to out-score Leeds United and I think they are likely to pick up a win in a fixture that sees at least two goals shared out.


Chelsea v Brighton PickEuropean Football has been rocked by the news that twelve clubs have decided they are going to push forward with a 'Super League' and six of those clubs are playing in the English Premier League.

Emotions are high at the moment and my personal thoughts would involve a lot of expletives- I am a Manchester United fan, but I would chuck them, along with the other five, out of the top Division and let them rot in their mess.

The Premier League will be able to get past the loss of clubs who have long lost their soul, and it is going to be interesting to see how players will react going forward.

For now the focus for Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea players is to make sure they take advantage of the West Ham United defeat on Saturday. This means Chelsea are in control of a top four place and a return to the Champions League (if UEFA allows them to compete next season) and Tuchel will be looking for his team to take some momentum into the big game at the London Stadium coming up.

A win over Manchester City in the FA Cup Semi Final was impressive, but Chelsea will likely make some changes for this fixture. Even then they have shown quality at both ends of the field that makes Chelsea favourites to beat a Brighton team who play attractive football, but who will give up opportunities for their opponents.

I do think Brighton can cause problems for Chelsea with their approach and if the players in the home camp have been distracted even slightly after the revelations of the last forty-eight hours then this could be a potential upset.

However, I think Tuchel is a manager who will find a way to keep the group focused on what they can control and that is this football match. The stunning loss to West Brom has really been an outlier as to the levels being produced by Chelsea and I think they have bounced back effectively from that.

This won't be easy against a rested opponent, especially as Chelsea have had two tough games since Brighton last played, but the top four race is back on. While I would love to see all of the six clubs that have signed up to this awful Super League proposal suffer massively, I think Chelsea will prove to be too good for Brighton and secure a victory behind another stingy defensive performance.


Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton PickThe new European Super League has some of the big names in European history attached to it, but it is laughable that a club like Tottenham Hotspur are a part of that- if that isn't proof of a money grab then I don't know what is!

Only twice have Tottenham Hotspur been English Champions and the last of those came in 1961 so you can easily put them in amongst the top twenty European clubs(!) Personally I think they are joke and any little respect for this club has vanished.

I have to take a neutral approach to this Premier League fixture though and my pick as to how it will end.

The Sacking of Jose Mourinho would have been headline news a couple of days ago, but this is just another big headline on a day when European Football has descended into a civil war. Tottenham Hotspur's poor run has been cited as the reason for the decision, although it has surprisingly been made just days before the club are looking for their first trophy since 2008 (what an elite club hey?!)

Ryan Mason will take over until the end of the season and Spurs are still in a position where they can challenge for a top four place in the Premier League, although whether they are allowed to take part in the Champions League is another discussion to be had. Anything less than a win would likely be the end of those ambitions on sporting merit, but Tottenham Hotspur could be relaxed and able to play their best game if the players were indeed fed up with Mourinho.

Harry Kane could be out, but the likes of Dele Alli and Gareth Bale may have something to prove and Tottenham Hotspur could take advantage of the disappointment that Southampton may be feeling after losing their FA Cup Semi Final against Leicester City. Southampton didn't play badly and were a touch unfortunate, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away Premier League games and continue to concede too many goals.

Southampton will be dangerous when getting forward against a Tottenham Hotspur defence which has to be short of confidence. However, their own defence is likely to be tested and I think the home team will likely win a game that features at least two goals on the night.


Aston Villa v Manchester City PickThe defeat in the FA Cup Semi Final will have hurt, but talk of the Quadruple will no longer be a distraction to Manchester City who may not have too many more chances to become proper European Champions.

Pep Guardiola will also want to put any lingering doubts about winning the Premier League to bed as soon as possible as they hold an 8 point lead over rivals Manchester United with six League games to play. A win on Wednesday will put them well on the way and Manchester City should be focused despite the League Cup Final to be played on Sunday.

More changes than expected were made for the FA Cup Semi Final and the manager has made it clear that he will be rotating his squad to maximise their ability to perform. Pep Guardiola got it wrong on Saturday, but he won't mind as long as his team performs as they should and there should be a reaction from them on Wednesday.

They will head to what should be a motivated Aston Villa squad who will be amongst a number of Premier League clubs sickened by the European Super League proposals that the 'Big Six' have joined up. It closes the shop to the elite for clubs like Aston Villa who ironically have one more European Cup in their trophy cabinet than Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur combined.

Aston Villa are well rested, but the team are struggling for form and losing Jack Grealish is a real blow to their chances. A strong team will be selected, but even a Manchester City team with changes should be too good on the night as long as their own players are focused on the football to be played rather than the fallout from the European Super League announcement.

I expect the players to be able to do that and I think Manchester City likely win by a couple of goals here as Tottenham Hotspur did last month.


Leicester City v West Brom PickThis feels like a bigger game for Leicester City than West Brom when these two meet in the Premier League on Thursday and that is largely because the latter's survival hopes have been dented by Newcastle United's upturn in form.

West Brom may have won back to back Premier League games, but they are still 9 points behind Burnley in 17th place and there are just seven League games left to be played.

The pressure is on them, but you can double that for Leicester City who are still clinging onto a top four spot in the Premier League after an inconsistent run. They faltered badly down the stretch last season and Brendan Rodgers was hoping those experiences would just strengthen the resolve of his squad this time around, but the pressure has been put on Leicester City by West Ham United, Chelsea and Liverpool.

The latter two teams play on Monday and Tuesday and if both win then Leicester City will really have to deal with the memories of last season. They simply cannot afford to drop points in a fixture like this one and I do think Leicester City are playing well enough to edge to the points, especially with James Maddison back and likely to play a part in this one.

West Brom have looked good of late, but this is a team who have long struggled and I don't think they can be fully trusted. They may cause some problems for Leicester City, but West Brom have continued to struggle defensively and that is where the home team can edge to the points.

It is a Midlands derby so there may be some factors that are hard to judge, while Leicester City have a miserable home record against West Brom down the years. However, this Leicester City team are off a confidence boosting FA Cup Semi Final win and I think they can be backed to edge to the points in a big Premier League game.

MY PICKS: Everton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals
Arsenal
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea - 0.75 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 32
A poor decision...

Bringing in Marcos Alonso turned out not to be the correct transfer after the Spaniard was left out of Chelsea's win at Crystal Palace and it was not only compounded by the other option, Trent Alexander-Arnold, banging in a winner for Liverpool against Aston Villa.

No, what hurt the most was removing Stuart Dallas for Alonso after the Leeds United defender not only scored once, but twice in the win at Manchester City.

Remarkable, but that has been my feeling for much of the 2020/21 Premier League season with the congested nature seemingly meaning you can't really plan for events as much as you may feel you can.

Stuart Dallas has done virtually nothing for weeks and that was despite his Leeds United team facing two of the bottom three teams, but not for the first time the returns have come in fixtures where you may not feel the player is likely to have a big impact. Lucas Digne, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Luke Shaw and Diogo Jota have all hurt me in those situations at various times over the last two months too, but it is just the way things have gone in general in 2020/21.


The suggestions are that the Premier League are very close to ratifying the change to the end of the season which is going to see the current GameWeek 35 moved back a few days and a new GameWeek 37 beginning in the midweek before the final weekend of the season. That was originally looking like being a free week in which any games left that need to be scheduled would be played, but the changes are likely to be made so every team has at least one home game in front of limited fans in the 2020/21 season.

For the Fantasy game the impact is that we do have at least one more really big Double GameWeek coming up and that is expected in GameWeek 35 as those teams involved in the FA Cup Final will have their Premier League game pushed forward a few days. There are at least two fixtures that are expected to be slotted into that GameWeek 35 to make a double for four clubs, while that number could increase to eight clubs depending on how the FA Cup Semi Finals go this weekend.

That decision by the Premier League should be confirmed before the end of next week and makes the Wild Card I want to play before GameWeek 33 a little easier to manage, although for now the focus has to be on GameWeek 32.


Only Tottenham Hotspur are on a Double GameWeek this week and the decision on a Captain is obviously going to be backing one of those players.

I am chasing a higher spot and that means I want to go with the differential- I imagine most will pick Harry Kane, but I am thinking of bringing Heung-Min Son and potentially even Triple Captaining him this week.

With Dominic Calvert-Lewin ruled out by Carlo Ancelotti, I can bring in Kelechi Iheanacho and upgrade Ilkay Gundogan for the South Korean, although it would mean taking a hit. My original plan had me moving Raheem Sterling for Son as my sole transfer this week, but there is some doubts about whether Ruben Dias, Gundogan and Marcos Alonso and whether they will start this week which means I can't afford to have a weak bench having only had ten starters last week.

This is my thinking so far, and I am unlikely to reach the deadline with plans to be out of the house on Friday afternoon (the beer gardens are finally open and I've spent far too long at home).

Activating the Wild Card in GameWeek 33 is still the most likely plan considering the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur are playing a blank, but I need to have a good think about how I want to manage my resources down the stretch. It has been a hard season, but there is still time for a very strong finish and at least have some confidence to take into Euro 2020 Dream Team and FPL play in the 2021/22 season.

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