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Friday, 9 April 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 9-12)

The GameWeeks are running out in the Fantasy Premier League game, but the frustration for my choices looks like being a season-long event and I am already looking forward to taking part in Euro 2020 Fantasy games and then preparing for the 2021/22 season.

Hopefully that will be a time when we are allowed back inside the Stadiums- I have missed Old Trafford massively- and the season should also be one that is much more familiar in the way it is broken down compared with this congested campaign.

It is obviously going to be a one season return to normality as the following season will bring us the Winter World Cup for the first time which is due to start in November in Qatar and that will mean another 'different looking' season with the way things are managed by the Associations around Europe and the rest of the world.

I will get into my GW31 team below, but first a few thoughts as to how I think the Premier League games will go this weekend.


Fulham v Wolves Pick: The Premier League returns on Friday night and this looks to be one of a really important game for Fulham as they look to put pressure on those teams above them in the table.

After blowing the 0-1 lead at Aston Villa with a late capitulation, Fulham are now 3 points from safety and they have played a game more than the majority of their rivals around them. A win on Friday would actually take them out of the bottom three for a day or two at least, but Fulham have been struggling for form and have been beaten in their last 3 at Craven Cottage.

However, Fulham have to be targeting this as a fixture they can win when facing a Wolves team who are in mid-table and struggling for consistency. Wolves have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games, but they have been tougher to beat on their travels and I think that gives them every chance of earning a positive result.

The underlying stats have certainly suggested Wolves have been a touch unfortunate not to have picked up more points of late and certainly fail to secure a couple of wins over the last month. They created a huge amount of chances against Aston Villa and West Ham United, while also had the better of play against Liverpool, but Wolves earned just a single point from those fixtures.

A lack of goals has been a concern without Raul Jimenez, but they at least showed a little more composure in the final third in the loss to West Ham United on Easter Monday. That will offer Wolves encouragement as they head to West London and I am surprised they are the underdog by such a margin considering Fulham's form and the likely absence of Ademola Lookman.

A draw can't be ruled out, but Fulham may have to take more risks than Wolves and that could leave them open for the pace that the visitors have. Wolves have drawn at Newcastle United and Aston Villa recently and they are certainly capable of at least earning that kind of result here, although the chances being created of late could see Wolves finally break through and earn a vital win to virtually secure Premier League Football for another season.


Manchester City v Leeds United Pick: You can't underestimate the fact that Manchester City will make changes to their first eleven and will clearly be focused on the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg to come during the week, but this is a deep squad. Any changes that will be made will still produce a strong starting eleven as Manchester City showed in their dominating 0-2 win at Leicester City last weekend.

They will also benefit from the fact that Leeds United will look to play an open game and I think Manchester City will be able to expose any holes that are left behind.

In saying that I expect Leeds United to play their part here with an attacking approach likely to cause Manchester City some problems as Manchester United, Southampton and Borussia Dortmund have found in recent visits to the Etihad Stadium. The style implement by Marcelo Bielsa means Leeds United will press from the front and any lack of focus from the hosts will be punished.

However, some have suggested there is a naivety to the Leeds United approach which has left them vulnerable to the counter attack. They have certainly been exposed by some of the top teams in the Premier League and Leeds United have conceded at least three goals at Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Arsenal already this season.

Manchester City might not be dealing with the clean sheets they had been producing, but this is a team that creates chances and score goals. Even if some key players are rested, the likes of Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero will come in and they are good enough to break down this Leeds United team in what could be a really good watch on Saturday lunchtime for the neutrals.

Of the 8 away League defeats suffered by Leeds United, 6 have come by two or more goal margins and I think that will be the case on Saturday too. They may find a way to goal, but Manchester City should be able to create enough chances to overcome a team managed by someone that Pep Guardiola greatly admires.

There may be quite a few goals on show in this fixture, but Manchester City should have the better of things in a high-scoring game to maintain momentum ahead of the Second Leg against Borussia Dortmund coming up.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: If results had gone against Liverpool last weekend you could easily have made a case for the Champions League having a much bigger priority for the club over the Premier League. Even now the fans may feel the Champions League is the best route back into the same competition next season, but Liverpool have closed to within 3 points of the top four in the Premier League and so a strong team should be selected for this League game.

Losing 3-1 in Madrid may also have made it more important for Liverpool to keep the pressure on those teams above them by winning before the likes of West Ham United, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur play.

It will also be a morale boosting win for Liverpool having lost 6 Premier League games in a row at Anfield, especially as they will be hosting Real Madrid here on Wednesday. Another home defeat may just have the players feeling they can't overturn the deficit, but a win on Saturday will be a boost at just the right time and they may just be facing Aston Villa at a good time.

The visitors have looked desperate at the back so I do think this Liverpool team will create chances against them, while the return of Diogo Jota has given Liverpool another strong attacking option. The Portuguese star has played well since returning and I do think Liverpool will create chances against this Aston Villa defence which has a better defensive record than the underlying statistics suggests they should have.

Aston Villa can cause problems for the Liverpool defence with the attacking pace they have, but Jack Grealish's absence would be a big blow. Even without him there will be opportunities for Aston Villa, but perhaps not as frequent as they would like and Liverpool should create chances to win this fixture.

I expect Liverpool will need to score at least two goals to win this game and earn the confidence boosting victory that will at least give them some belief before facing Real Madrid again during the week. I think the return of Jota gives them another threat in the final third and I think Aston Villa will offer up enough for Liverpool to do that in this League game.


Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: The defeat to West Brom last weekend may have been one that can inspire Chelsea to a focused and strong end to the 2020/21 season.

They are still on course for a top four finish with their own destiny in their control, while Chelsea have a FA Cup Semi Final to look forward to next weekend. The 2-0 win over Porto during the week puts Chelsea in a commanding position when it comes to the Champions League Quarter Final tie too, although Thomas Tuchel can't afford another poor result in the Premier League with rivals West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool pushing for a top four finish too.

Chelsea have not been as tight defensively as their overall clean sheets have suggested over the last two months, but this is a team creating chances. They will be encouraged by the defensive vulnerability that Crystal Palace keep displaying and a solid record at Selhurst Park will also give the Chelsea players confidence of getting back to winning ways in the Premier League.

One concern for Chelsea is the lack of goals being scored away from home which is putting pressure on them to keep picking up the clean sheets. In only 1 of the last 10 away Premier League games played have Chelsea scored more than one goal, but they do have 3 clean sheets in their 5 away League games played under Thomas Tuchel.

They did score twice away from Stamford Bridge during the week and Chelsea have been creating some solid chances away from home. However I think the main focus after last Saturday will be restricting Crystal Palace and there is every chance they can do that when you think The Eagles had failed to score in 3 home League games before the narrow win over West Brom.

There were plenty of goals shared out when Crystal Palace hosted Chelsea last season, but this one looks to be a tighter affair thanks to the tactics likely employed by Thomas Tuchel. Roy Hodgson won't want to give too much away either and Chelsea are likely to win a competitive fixture which does not feature more than three goals in total.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: This is a huge game at the bottom of the Premier League and the winner will feel they are taking a big step towards safety even with seven games left to play this season.

Both Burnley and Newcastle United took the lead in their respective fixtures last weekend and ended up scoring twice, but neither picked up a win to remain in relegation trouble. Burnley blew a 0-2 lead at Southampton in a 3-2 defeat, but Newcastle United may feel they have a bit of momentum having scored a late equaliser to earn a point against Tottenham Hotspur at St James' Park.

Steve Bruce could be boosted by a returning Callum Wilson this weekend and Allan Saint-Maximin may be able to offer more minute son the pitch which should make Newcastle United more dangerous going forward. They will certainly feel this Burnley defence has been far from secure considering the kind of chances they have allowed in recent games and Newcastle United were very good last weekend.

That game was at home though and Newcastle United have looked more vulnerable away from home which makes this a more difficult game to read. Burnley have been churning out some positive results and they haven't been bad going forward, but the underlying numbers suggest they have been more fortunate than they have perhaps deserved.

They have looked like a team who can score goals, but who will offer chances for opponents too, and I think this is likely to be a high-scoring game as long as there is a first half game to just loosen defences. Both managers would likely take a point before kick off, but an early goal can change the mindset completely and neither Burnley nor Newcastle United look capable of keeping clean sheets at the moment.

A 1-1 scoreline is a real runner, but I think there may be at least one more goal shared out between them this weekend.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: This is a really important fixture in the Premier League this weekend and the outcome is going to have serious implications as to how the Champions League places are likely to be handed out at the end of the season.

Both Leicester City and West Ham United will be considered surprising top four teams going into the final eight League games, but neither is anywhere near guaranteed of playing Champions League Football next season. Now they are here, both Brendan Rodgers and David Moyes will be looking for a strong end to the season to offer their respective clubs a memorable campaign and the fans something to look forward to if they are able to return to the stands in August.

The importance of the game will not be lost on either team.

A win for Leicester City may see the team begin to feel they can pull away from the teams battling for the final Champions League berth, but a win for West Ham United would pull The Foxes back and have other rivals believing there are two spots up for grabs down the stretch.

It is hard to separate them considering how well West Ham United have been playing at home, but also how difficult Leicester City have been to beat on their travels. The goals being scored by The Hammers will be encouraging, but Leicester City will look at the defensive numbers and the return of James Maddison could see them pick the home defence.

Games between Leicester City and West Ham United have tended to be high-scoring and the last four have all featured at least three goals shared out. 4 of the last 5 in East London hosted by West Ham United have also featured at least three goals shared out and I think both teams are likely to have success when going forward in this one.

A 1-1 scoreline might not be one that either team would be that disappointed with, but I think both managers will understand that there is an opportunity to increase their own chances of Champions League Football and dent a rival at the same time. I don't think either will discourage their team from getting forward and I feel this is a fixture that could easily produce a vital 2-1 result either way.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: Results last weekend did not just open the door for Tottenham Hotspur to get closer to the top four, but also gave Manchester United an opportunity to take command of one of the Champions League places on offer from the Premier League standings.

Both of these teams fell 1-0 behind to relegation threatened opponents, but only Manchester United were able to secure the three points as they beat Brighton at Old Trafford. Tottenham Hotspur conceded very late in their 2-2 draw at Newcastle United, but Jose Mourinho has had a week to prepare his team and should have a couple of key defenders back that can only help Spurs.

They are also facing a Manchester United team that had a tough away game in Spain on Thursday evening and who have looked a touch fatigued in recent weeks.

You could label both of these teams as being inconsistent in terms of performances, although it is Manchester United who have continued to find a way to churn out more positive results. They have also been difficult to play away from Old Trafford as Manchester United have been able to employ counter attacking tactics to good effect in those matches and that has seen them lose a single domestic away game in fifteen months.

A late goal secured a 1-1 draw here when the season resumed after the three month suspension of play last June and I think Manchester United will make life tough for Tottenham Hotspur. The extra time off is a benefit for the home team who have an in-form Harry Kane leading the line and with some pace and quality around him that makes Tottenham Hotspur dangerous, although Jose Mourinho remains a cautious manager.

That caution is likely going to see Mourinho look to avoid leaving counter attacking space and it likely means we see a tight game between these top four chasing clubs. The game played at Old Trafford this season did finish 1-6, but a very early Penalty for Manchester United and a relatively early Anthony Martial sending off saw that fixture move in a direction that was hard to envision.

I expect this one to be much tighter and the last 3 Premier League fixtures hosted by Spurs against Manchester United have ended with less than three goals shared out. Neither manager is likely want to give too much away in this one either and I think it is another tight fixture between Big Six clubs that looks to be in the offing.


Sheffield United v Arsenal Pick: A seething Mikel Arteta will likely be fully focused on preparing his Arsenal team for the Europa League Quarter Final Second Leg against Slavia Prague which is to be played in the Czech Republic next Thursday. After missing a host of chances, Arsenal finally broke the deadlock in the First Leg with just five minutes remaining, but a late goal was conceded which means a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium was the outcome.

You could see how irritated Arteta was at full time and I expect changes to be made to the Arsenal starting eleven with the players involved next Thursday given a bit of a rest.

That raises doubts in this fixture and makes me feel Arsenal are a very short price and especially with the uncertainty about their team selection in mind. However, Sheffield United have been very poor all season and they can't be trusted to take advantage considering the amount of chances they have been allowing in recent games and with a struggle to score enough goals evident ever since The Blades returned to the top flight in August 2019.

I'll be watching The Masters when this game kicks off on Sunday evening and I really don't have any serious convictions about this fixture. A narrow away win is perhaps the most likely outcome, but this is one of those Premier League games that has very little riding on the result and with Arsenal most likely focusing their real attention elsewhere.


West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both of these teams conceded two goals in their last Premier League games played last weekend, but West Brom and Southampton showed real attacking intent in beating Chelsea and Burnley respectively. The two teams both had to come from behind to earn those wins, which will add to the confidence, but it does feel the Southampton performance is arguably more sustainable.

All credit has to be given to West Brom for the win at Stamford Bridge, but it was a 'perfect storm' of events that landed in their favour. They were 1-0 down before Thiago Silva was sent off and West Brom showed the kind of clinical finishing which has not been evident from them through the majority of the season.

Of course this result could spark them, but West Brom continued to look vulnerable defensively despite playing against an opponent with ten men. That has been a large part of the issue for West Brom as they have struggled to get closer to those teams outside of the relegation zone and they are now going up against a Southampton team who have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions.

Southampton also showed how much they still believe in their manager by coming from 0-2 down to beat Burnley 3-2 at St Mary's last weekend.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's team had been hurt by injuries and that contributed to their poor Premier League run, but Southampton look much healthier now. They have attacking options and will head to The Hawthorns with confidence and have won their last 3 fixtures played on this ground.

The Saints have not looked as strong defensively as they did earlier this season, but they are creating plenty of chances and I think they have a team that can secure another big result on Monday. The first goal will be important, but Southampton look the more likely to earn that on recent form and I think they can win here.

It will be a result that gives them real momentum to take into the FA Cup Semi Final.

West Brom have not scored in their last 2 Premier League games at The Hawthorns and I feel Southampton will have too much for them.


Brighton v Everton Pick: The home team are the favourite in this fixture, but Brighton are hard to trust with very few wins secured at the Amex Stadium this season. Their underlying statistics have been very impressive, but Brighton are still struggling for consistency in the final third and that makes it hard to really believe in them with any confidence.

I also think Everton are being a touch under-rated with their results influencing the prices on this fixture.

In reality they should have beaten Burnley and Crystal Palace in recent Premier League games and if they had, Everton would have likely been the narrow favourite to win here. Poor finishing has let them down, but the team has looked healthier which makes them stronger.

Add in the fact that Brighton have continued to struggle in the final third and you can make a case for Everton winning here, but Graham Potter's team are hard to read from game to game. The Seagulls could certainly play their part here with the attacking intent they continue to approach games with, but Everton will also feel they can create chances and I think this could be a high-scoring game like the one played between the teams at Goodison Park earlier this season.

Five goals were shared out when these teams met at the Amex Stadium last season too and this is another Premier League game that could be ignited with a first half goal.

MY PICKS: Wolves + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals
Burnley-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
West Ham United-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals
Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Everton Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 31
In a usual Fantasy Premier League season we would be preparing for one or maybe two Double GameWeeks at this point of the campaign, but the big Doubles look to have passed us by.

GameWeek 32 will give one team a double, Tottenham Hotspur, while two other fixtures have yet to secure dates. Those would have landed in GameWeek 37, but there is still ongoing talks of delaying a round of Premier League fixtures which would allow all teams to host at least one game where fans are allowed back inside the Stadiums.

Those decisions are yet to be made and it does make it more difficult to manage when the best time to play the Wild Card is set to be. Any changes to the schedule will mean the two FA Cup Finalists have an extra Double GameWeek which was not envisioned before these talks commenced and I want to hold onto my Wild Card through the FA Cup Semi Finals which are played next week.

While I do think there are some big changes I can make to my squad to get a lot closer to the top 100K, I think those aren't so desperate at this moment with a team that can cover the next two weeks through to GW33 when hopefully the remainder of the season will be set out much more clearly.

Importantly it is also the weekend when the League Cup Final is set to be played and that will mean four teams are not in action at all (of which I have a huge number of players).


That Wild Card decision makes it 'easier' to manage the Free Transfers through the next two GameWeeks, although I have seemingly failed to get on the right side of my choices for much of the season. Not for the first time I have been hurt by leaving one of my top scorers as my third sub, a decision which was compounded last week by my first sub leaving play injured before the 60th minute mark.

Too many single pointers have hurt my Overall Rank throughout the season, one which has produced too many strange results and inconsistencies and I am looking forward to a more settled campaign next time around.


Last week I decided to bring in Edouard Mendy and that turned out to be one of the poorest decisions of the season on the outcome of the transfer, although it was the right play on paper. You can't get too down on yourself when you think that is the case and I don't regret it with the 2-5 defeat suffered by Chelsea against West Brom being yet another strange result we have seen in this congested season.

With a Wild Card coming up soon, any transfers I make now can be seen as 'one week punts', although I am looking at players who will likely take part in both of the next two GameWeeks to get the maximum from them.

Last week I spoke about my disappointment I could not bring in Marcos Alonso and the Spanish left back returned an assist as he continues to move into strong attacking positions. The feeling is that he will be used in both Premier League games to be played by Chelsea in GameWeek 31 and 32 with Ben Chilwell used for the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Porto and the FA Cup Semi Final against Manchester City next weekend.

Thomas Tuchel has tended to use Alonso against those teams that are likely going to sit back and I think that is the case with Crystal Palace this weekend and, to a lesser extent, Brighton who visit Stamford Bridge next.

Another interesting player that is showing improvement is Trent Alexander-Arnold who has something to prove after being dropped from the last England squad, but Liverpool have two tougher games than Chelsea on paper. Add in their situation in the Champions League and I think Alonso makes more more sense at this point than Alexander-Arnold, although the latter may be more of a play when it comes to working out the Wild Card team later this month.


One player who is getting his last chance for my squad this week is Raheem Sterling who has clearly been out of favour at Manchester City since the derby defeat to Manchester United last month. Since that fixture, Sterling has played just 27 minutes in three Premier League games, while he was also benched in the Champions League Quarter Final First Leg against Borussia Dortmund during the week.

Raheem Sterling did start in the FA Cup win at Everton, but both Manchester City goals came after he was substituted and I do think Pep Guardiola has more trust in other options.

However, the manager has spoken about keeping his squad as fresh as possible and the home game against Leeds United looks a very good chance to bring Sterling back in for a start and give Riyad Mahrez a rest following back to back starts this past week.

I think I am so convinced that I am going to give Sterling the Captain armband as a differential maker this week with many jumping off the ownership of the England international. He is the most likely player that I am going to move next week with the target being another Tottenham Hotspur player to treble up on their Double GameWeek, but I am hoping there is a big performance in Sterling against an open Leeds United team at the Etihad Stadium.

It is risky backing any player that is managed by Pep Guardiola outside of Kevin De Bruyne for the Captaincy choice, but it came down to a pretty straight choice for me between Sterling and Diogo Jota. The latter is perhaps more likely to be rested considering Liverpool's situation in the Champions League and with Roberto Firmino capable of coming in, while I will likely hand the Vice Captaincy to a more secure choice as a starter.

Like last week, I was also tempted by Marcos Alonso as Captain if bringing him in against a goal-shy Crystal Palace, but picking a player from the team with the best underlying stats as an attacking force in the last six weeks is hard to ignore.

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