It was a mixed bag of results on Thursday, but so much is down to the awful collapse Elina Svitolina had in her eventual defeat to Jill Belen Teichmann.
After looking in control at 6-2, 2-0, 30/0, Svitolina blew the second set, but worse was to come.
She was then up 5-1 on serve in the final set and missed four Match Points on her way to failing to see out the match and eventually Elina Svitolina was beaten in the Tie-Breaker.
I need that kind of poor luck to be erased, but there really isn't much more I can do than the research and believe that I am making the right selections. You can't get much closer to covering without covering and the feeling is that eventually I am going to hit a really good patch of form.
I am hoping that begins on Friday as the First Round is completed at the WTA Madrid tournament, while the Quarter Final matches in Estoril and Munich are also set to be played. A busy day is in store and I am looking for some successes to lay the foundations for what is hopefully a much better few days leading into early May and the move to the Rome Masters.
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Irena-Camelia Begu: We haven't really seen Daria Kasatkina kick on in her career in the manner many would have expected of her and the next few weeks are going to be important to earn some solid World Ranking points. At almost 24 years old, I do think Daria Kasatkina should have been much higher than her current Number 37 World Ranking, especially as the Russian cracked the top ten back in October 2018.
This is only the second clay court tournament that Kasatkina is playing in 2021, but she has long been very comfortable on the surface where her return can be a huge weapon for her. The serve is a vulnerable one that can be attacked by opponents, but Daria Kasatkina may not be too worried about this match up with the Qualifier Irena-Camelia Begu.
Winning two matches to earn a spot in the main draw will give Begu some confidence, especially in what has been a mixed season for her as she has fallen down to Number 75 in the World Rankings. Irena-Camelia Begu has long favoured playing on the clay courts which makes her a test, but the head to head with Daria Kasatkina is one that will have the Romanian a little nervy despite the two wins produced in Madrid.
The faster clay court may actually benefit Irena-Camelia Begu too, which is encouraging, but she has lost seven of eight matches against this opponent and that includes six in a row with just a single set won in that stretch. It has been a couple of years since these two met on the red dirt in Rome, but Daria Kasatkina has won the last three matches between them on the clay courts and Begu has not really been able to get into the return games as well as she would have liked.
I have to say that Irena-Camelia Begu is a pretty steady clay court player and any off day from Daria Kasatkina will be punished. However, the level that Kasatkina is able to produce on this surface may be too much for Begu to stick with and in their head to heads that has tended to be the case as I look for the Russian player to come through with a cover of a wide enough spread mark.
Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 games v Nina Stojanovic: Qualifiers can be very dangerous in the early Rounds of any tournament they enter the main draw and Nina Stojanovic has to be respected with two wins behind her in Madrid. This is the first clay court tournament she will have played this season, but it has been a good year in general which saw Stojanovic reach a career best World Ranking last month.
The 24 year old was in good form in her two Qualifying wins and that will make Stojanovic dangerous in this First Round match and especially if Anett Kontaveit is not as focused as she should be. That is one of the main complaints about Kontaveit who can blow hot and cold within matches and tournaments, but a good week in Stuttgart has been put in the books and the Estonian is comfortable on the clay courts.
One of the areas that continues to let Kontaveit down is the return of serve and she has to find a way to put more pressure on Nina Stojanovic if she is going to break down her lower Ranked opponent. There were positive signs out of Anett Kontaveit in Stuttgart, but she needs to build on that if she is going to have the kind of clay court campaign she would like to put in the books.
Anything less than a strong returning day will put Anett Kontaveit under pressure and her opponent does have previous having produced a 5-3 career record against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts. The second serve has been a weakness for Stojanovic in those matches though and I think that is where Kontaveit has to make sure she is aggressive, but not wasteful when she sees that serve.
On this surface I do think Anett Kontaveit can find the break points to eventually crack through Nina Stojanovic and it may come with enough time to win and cover. Their sole previous meeting is largely irrelevant as it came back in 2017 when Nina Stojanovic was much younger and inexperienced, but even at this stage of their careers I do think Anett Kontaveit may have a touch too much for Nina Stojanovic.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: This has already been a memorable season for Sara Sorribes Tormo who reached a career best Singles World Ranking earlier this week, and it could potentially only get better for the Spaniard. She has long seen the clay courts as her best surface and can pile up the World Ranking points over the next month, although I think Sorribes Tormo will be the first to admit she would prefer a kinder draw than the one she has been given in the First Round in Madrid.
It is a home tournament and that is going to provide plenty of motivation for Sara Sorribes Tormo, but Simona Halep will be heading into the French Open as one of the favourites to win that title again.
A Semi Final run in Stuttgart will have shown that Simona Halep is feeling in pretty good form and she is a former winner in Madrid so the faster conditions at this tournament is not a major concern. In recent years you could argue that Halep has been the most consistent clay courter on the WTA side of the Tour and her numbers have been very impressive, especially on the return of serve.
I think that return of serve is going to be key in this match against an opponent whose returning game is much stronger than her serving one. However, I think it would be wrong to suggest that Simona Halep has as weak a serve as the one Sara Sorribes Tormo will be bringing to the court and that is where the top ten Ranked player will likely dominate the rallies.
If Sorribes Tormo is not able to get enough first serves in play it could be a really tough First Round match for her and she was beaten pretty handily by Simona Halep when these two played on the clay courts last season. That was played at the French Open and Halep created more than double the amount of break points than Sorribes Tormo and I do think she is more likely to be in that position again.
The Spaniard has been in very good form in 2021 and she has to be respected, but Simona Halep should find the breaks of serve to get into a position to cover this spread. It won't be easy if Sara Sorribes Tormo is able to dig in as much as she has throughout 2021, but Simona Halep is one of the top clay courters on the Tour and I think the match up is one that should be appealing to her.
Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: The last twelve months have been important for Victoria Azarenka who needed a Special Entry to play in the clay court tournaments in 2020, but who is back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings now. We haven't seen her since the Miami Masters that began at the end of March, but Victoria Azarenka is someone who has been pretty comfortable on the clay courts.
She will need to find her form pretty quickly as Azarenka has been drawn against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the First Round in Madrid. Last week the Russian won a couple of matches in the tough Stuttgart draw before coming up short against Simona Halep in the Quarter Final, but Alexandrova has been inconsistent on the clay courts throughout her career and we will see how much she has picked up from those wins in Stuttgart.
The return has been an area where Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled in her clay court matches, but she was serving well last week and that may be important in trying to keep tabs with Victoria Azarenka.
The latter does have a really vulnerable second serve and that is where Alexandrova is going to have to try and take advantage, but Victoria Azarenka is a very good returner on this surface and I think that is where the difference is made on the day. If Azarenka can get enough first serves in play she will likely feel that she has enough to get on top of the rallies and control them.
Both players should have their moments in the match, but Victoria Azarenka is the stronger clay court player even if this is her first match on the surface in 2021. It may take a set to really get her feet underneath her, but Victoria Azarenka should begin to take control against Ekaterina Alexandrova who is not as comfortable on the surface.
I expect the Belarusian's return of serve to prove to be the most important factor in this First Round encounter and it should be enough to see Victoria Azarenka win and get past this spread too.
MY PICKS: Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madrid Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked - 9.25% Yield)
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