Frustration was getting the better of me with so many selections seemingly ending on the wrong end of every bit of bad luck I could think of. That was only made worse because those were the good selections and I wasn't getting any luck by getting away with the bad selections.
That adds up in a negative spiral and that is when taking a step back and looking for things to be reset is the best policy and especially in a long Tennis season.
The WTA side of the Madrid Masters begins on Thursday and I am looking for a positive start to the tournament which can give me something to build upon.
2021 has not been a very good season to this point, but things can turn around quickly and I am just looking for a touch more fortune behind the Tennis Picks.
I will update the Season Totals and place that down in either the Friday or the Saturday thread for the Tennis Picks, but hopefully there will be some positive signs immediately out of this tournament.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Jill Belen Teichmann: A tight loss in the Stuttgart Semi Final will have offered Elina Svitolina encouragement having played pretty well in a loaded tournament. The clay courts may not be her favourite surface, but the Ukrainian is pretty effective on all surfaces and she will be looking for a strong run in Madrid.
The clay courts in this City tend to play pretty fast compared with the ones we will see in Rome and Paris in the next few weeks and that is much to do with the altitude which sees players hit through the courts. That may be a problem for Elina Svitolina, but she should still have too much for Jill Belen Teichmann who is playing her first clay court match of the season.
Jill Belen Teichmann has been comfortable on the clay courts in the past so she is one player that can't be dismissed easily. However, the last time we saw Teichmann she was withdrawing from a match with an injury and it was a difficult match up for her against Elina Svitolina when these two met on the clay courts in Strasbourg in 2020.
Now she is going up against an Elina Svitolina who has been serving pretty well in her limited time on the clay and one who can exert plenty of pressure with her return. That side of her game looked in good shape in Stuttgart and was the key in Svitolina's wins over Angelique Kerber and Petra Kvitova and this is a match that is largely a step down from that kind of level.
When these two played in Strasbourg, it was Elina Svitolina who more than doubled the amount of break points created than Jill Belen Teichmann. I expect it is going to be a key part of this First Round match in Madrid too and I think Svitolina can get the better of things which will give her every chance to cover what looks a big mark.
It can be hard to trust Elina Svitolina who can play hot and cold within a match, but her World Ranking has largely come about thanks to her ability to win matches like this one. I would expect Jill Belen Teichmann to have her moments, but a lack of recent competitive tennis could go against her in this opener in Madrid.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: Two Qualifiers have the chance to pick up some vital World Ranking points when they meet in the First Round in Madrid and both Laura Siegemund and Kateryna Kozlova have to be confident in their chances. Both were pretty dominant winners in their opening two matches in Madrid, although Kozlova came through with consecutive straight sets wins compared with Siegemund who needed three sets in her Second Qualifying Round match.
That extra set meant Laura Siegemund had to spend an extra thirty minutes on the court winning that match, but I don't expect it will be too much of an issue with this First Round match scheduled for the afternoon. It should mean there is enough recovery time for a player who has been confident on the clay courts throughout her career and who will be expecting to put up plenty of wins in the weeks ahead.
Laura Siegemund was beaten by Ashleigh Barty in the Second Round in Stuttgart, a tournament she has won before, but that is not a loss that will hurt the confidence. The German should also take heart from the fact that Barty went on and won the tournament and Siegemund is someone who has consistently had decent numbers on the clay.
That consistency was on display in her two Qualifying wins, while Kateryna Kozlova has only recently returned to competitive action having been off the Tour since the French Open last September. Unsurprisingly it has been a relatively low-key return to the Tour for the Ukrainian, but Kozlova has previously reached the Third Round in Madrid having Qualified for the tournament when doing that in 2019.
However, it should be noted that Kateryna Kozlova has not shown nearly the same kind of level on the clay courts on a consistent basis as Laura Siegemund has.
Laura Siegemund has also won the last three matches between these players and two of those were on clay courts as the former dominated the break point chances and eventually secured two easy looking wins on the scoreboard. The faster clay courts should make Kateryna Kozlova a little more dangerous, but Siegemund has enjoyed the match up and I think she is looking in good enough nick to find a win and a cover.
Ana Bogdan + 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: Two more Qualifiers are perhaps feeling happy with a draw that sees them take on another Qualifier and the chance to put some World Ranking points on the board they may not have otherwise earned. The time that Ana Bogdan has spent on the court compared with Anastasija Sevastova might be a concern, but the younger player has a winning record against Sevastova and Ana Bogdan has always made life difficult for her too.
They have twice met on the clay courts and split those matches 1-1, while a couple of months ago Ana Bogdan beat Anastasija Sevastova on the hard courts in Australia in preparation for the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season. The first of the clay court matches was dominated by Bogdan, but the more recent one saw Sevastova come through a tough three setter and I believe this one is going to be another competitive First Round match.
Over the last couple of years Ana Bogdan has shown she has all of the tennis needed to be a solid clay court player and she had a good run in Istanbul already this season. The numbers have backed that up, although Bogdan would love to get a little more out of the serve so her return can really take over matches.
Anastasija Sevastova is a solid clay courter in her own right and she is a former Madrid Semi Finalist which has to be respected, but her form over the last year has been inconsistent to say the least. Two Qualifier wins will have given Sevastova confidence, but the Latvian has been beaten by Caty Mcnally on the surface this season and I do think she is a vulnerable favourite here.
The serve has been a touch more reliable than Ana Bogdan's serve and that may be important, although I do think the latter is the better returner. The four matches played by Sevastova this season has seen her return looking in good shape, but it is a small sample and I do think Ana Bogdan has shown more consistency on that side of her game.
This one going three sets will not be a big surprise, but I do think Ana Bogdan can edge past her higher Ranked opponent. She should hold the mental edge and I think Bogdan might just be the superior clay courter of the two at this stage of their careers.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ana Bogdan + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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