Miami Masters Day 9 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 31st)

Day 8 has proved to be a very positive day for the Tennis Picks, but this is not going to be a very long thread for Day 9 when the remaining WTA Quarter Final matches and two of the four ATP Quarter Finals are set to be played.

I am going to update the Miami Masters totals on Wednesday and I will add any selections from the two ATP Quarter Finals at that time.

However I do like the look of both WTA Quarter Final matches that remain and you can read my thoughts on them below.

Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Both of these players are going to be pretty happy with having a day of rest between tough Fourth Round wins and this Quarter Final. In recent years you would have expected Bianca Andreescu to be a successful hard court player and certainly more than Sara Sorribes Tormo, but injury has hurt the former ever since she won the US Open in 2019 and that meant missing the entirety of the 2020 season.

After such a lay off you have to expect the Canadian is going to have some ups and downs as she looks to return to the top of the WTA Tour, but the wins will have done Bianca Andreescu the world of good this past week. She has shown she can dig deep and battle through matches and the come from behind win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round is especially impressive when you think of how well Muguruza has played to open 2021.

Beating a couple of players Ranked inside the top 32 is important for the confidence of Andreescu who has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts in her return. The serve has been working well for Andreescu this week, but I do think this is a player capable of a lot more on the return than she has shown so far having won just 41% of return points played in her three wins on her way through to the Quarter Final.

Her overall returning numbers in 2021 has seen Bianca Andreescu win much closer to 44% of the return points played and that will offer encouragement when she takes on this surprising Quarter Finalist in the form of Sara Sorribes Tormo.

There has been very little from the Spaniard to think she has been capable of a run like this on the hard courts if you look at her record and deeper numbers on the surface in recent seasons. However, Sara Sorribes Tormo won a hard court title in Mexico earlier this month and backed that up by reaching the Semi Final in another tournament played in Monterrey before this surprising march through the draw.

Sara Sorribes Tormo has had four tough matches in Miami and each of those have been won in three sets which means she has spent a considerable amount of time on the court. Her serve has been a weakness, but Sorribes Tormo has enjoyed the slower conditions having won more than 50% of return points played in the tournament which has maintained some stunning return numbers on the hard courts in 2021.

She has won 49% of return points played in her eighteen hard court matches in 2021, but that is considerably higher than her performances in recent seasons and her overall career mark of 38% return points won on the surface. Confidence has to be high, but it is difficult to believe Sorribes Tormo can maintain that level through the remainder of the season and I think Bianca Andreescu is serving well enough to control the match.

I expect Bianca Andreescu to put Sara Sorribes Tormo under pressure considering the relative weakness of the Spaniard's serve and I think the former US Open Champion reaches her first big Semi Final since the success at Flushing Meadows since September 2019.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Maria Sakkari: There is every chance that Naomi Osaka could end this week as the World Number 1 on the WTA Tour, but I don't think there are too many fans who believe that anyone else is deserving of that position regardless of the World Rankings. The Australian Open came through a difficult test against Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round and Naomi Osaka is yet to taste defeat on the hard courts in 2021, although the next three or four months figure to be more testing once the Tour moves onto the clay and grass court tournaments.

That is something Osaka will need to deal with in the weeks ahead, but the focus has to be on picking up the first 'Masters' event of the season and underlining her position as the favourite when we get around to the US Open.

Naomi Osaka goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Quarter Final and the latter has shown a real improvement on the Tour over the last couple of seasons, although perhaps still not quite consistent enough to challenge the very best players. There is no doubt that Sakkari can be very dangerous on her day, and there is an improvement in her returning numbers which have helped her go much deeper into tournaments.

The improvement is going to be tested to the maximum by Naomi Osaka who has been dominant behind the serve on the hard courts and who has begun to look after the second serve even more than she had previously. She was already dangerous behind her serve, but adding protection to the second serve means it is very difficult for opponents to get their teeth in their return games and I expect the same will be the case for Maria Sakkari.

In their previous four matches, Sakkari has struggled to return serve, although she is only 1-2 in the head to head with Naomi Osaka on the hard courts. She has won a set in each of those matches, although Maria Sakkari has only won 34% of return points played against Naomi Osaka on the hard courts and that leaves her own serve vulnerable to the pressures that come with the scoreboard and the opponent being able to rush through their own service games.

What makes Maria Sakkari dangerous is that she has a decent serve and she can make it difficult for opponent's to break that weapon. She has some solid numbers against Naomi Osaka and her overall service numbers in 2021 have been strong too, but the pressure points is where the Australian Open Champion can begin to exert her control of this match.

If Maria Sakkari can get a high percentage of first serves in play she will make this a close match, but her second serve could be attacked by someone like Naomi Osaka who has won 47% of return points played on the hard courts in 2021. Naomi Osaka has not always found it easy to attack the Sakkari serve, but she has found a way to produce at the big moments which has seen the Japanese player break at least four times against Sakkari in two of their three hard court matches.

I think that is the way this match will go and I can see Naomi Osaka using her serve to start piling the pressure on Maria Sakkari to keep up on the scoreboard and that could see the latter snap. I am glad to see Sakkari is improving her overall tennis, but Naomi Osaka may still be operating at a level where she can win this Quarter Final and cover what looks to be a big handicap on paper.

MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 31-22, + 11 Units (106 Units Staked, + 10.38% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 8 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 30th)

The Tournament Schedule at the Miami Masters means we have to wait for some of the markets to be generated for those matches that are set to be played on Day 8.

The entire ATP Fourth Round and two of the WTA Quarter Finals are set to be played and waiting for the completion of the Day 7 matches means there is also a wait for the upcoming markets to be put together. That does mean I will look the majority of the matches on Tuesday morning when I will add any selections to this thread, although I have looked through half of the ATP Fourth Round matches that were set up on Sunday evening.

I will update the thread on Tuesday and will also update the totals from the Miami Masters at the same time.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Severe cramping looked like it might see the demise of the favourite to win the title at the ATP Miami Masters, but Daniil Medvedev continues to display the kind of resistance and belief in his own game to overcome challenges. Being in this half of the draw is important for Daniil Medvedev too as it means he gets a rest day between the Third Round and Fourth Round and that should mean he is able to get over the issues he faced a couple of days ago.

It was a deserved win for Daniil Medvedev over Alexei Popyrin and only a single lapse in the second set forced him to spend over two and a half hours on the court. I don't think his overall conditioning is a concern, but I do think the Russian will want to be a little more focused throughout this Fourth Round match to avoid being dragged into another deep match.

His opponent won't be a lot fresher as Frances Tiafoe was able to recover from a set down for a third time at the Miami Masters. The American has spent effectively at least two hours on the court in each of his three wins, but Tiafoe has also been on the right side of a bit of fortune over the past week to earn his spot in the Fourth Round.

The numbers have suggested that Frances Tiafoe is little more than a fairly steady hard court player, although he is getting a touch more out of his serve this week. His is still winning 37% of the return points played, but Tiafoe has held 88% of his service games played this past week compared with his 80% mark for the 2021 season on the hard courts.

It is encouraging for Tiafoe, but he is going to be tested by the Daniil Medvedev return game which is as good as virtually anyone on the Tour. Daniil Medvedev has created at least eight break points in both wins secured in Miami and he has broken in 32% of return games played on the hard courts in 2021 which will give him the confidence to attack the Tiafoe serve.

Frances Tiafoe has played the big points on his serve very well this week, but I expect Daniil Medvedev to put him under more pressure than his previous opponents.

Last year Medvedev beat Tiafoe at both the Australian and US Open tournaments and he has won all three hard court matches these two have played against one another. I have to respect the fact that Frances Tiafoe has had some success getting into the Daniil Medvedev serve in those matches, but the worry for the home player has to be the 52% of return games in which Medvedev has broken his serve.

The Russian top five World Ranked player has won just under 49% of return points played against Frances Tiafoe in their previous hard court matches and I think Daniil Medvedev covers this handicap in a win.

John Isner-Roberto Bautista Agut over 23.5 games: There are significant signs that there is a decline in the level John Isner has been able to bring to the courts over the last fifteen months and it may soon mean slipping down the World Rankings. The change in the system back the normal 52 Week system will hurt Isner unless he can put some serious Ranking points back on the board and his two wins in Miami will help.

He is now a month out from his 36th birthday and there have been some signs that the once potent serve is losing some of its power. He has held a high 88% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that is still a drop off from the 92% number we have become used to seeing from Isner over the course of the season.

It also puts immense pressure on a player who has always been a pretty limited returner- John Isner has broken in less than 10% of return games played on the hard courts in the 2019, 2020 and 2021 season. In the last fifteen months John Isner has won fewer than 28% of the return points played on the hard courts and some of the confidence may have been lost during that time, another issue which will have benefited from the wins secured over the past week.

In the Fourth Round John Isner takes on Roberto Bautista Agut who has not really found the level we have come to expect from the Spaniard. He is still playing at a good level, but there is room for improvement from Bautista Agut and his win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the Third Round will have helped, especially the way he came from behind to secure it.

Playing the big points more efficiently is the key for Roberto Bautista Agut who has won 65% of the points played behind serve this season, the same as his 2020 numbers. However he is holding 78% of his service games compared with 82% last season, while Roberto Bautista Agut is just a couple of percentage points below his mark for returning points won in 2021 compared with 2020. Again, that has led to him breaking significantly less than he was last season, but it really won't take a lot for Bautista Agut to get back to the kind of level he had been operating at.

He is playing well enough to feel he can get the better of John Isner on current form, although it is the American who holds a 3-1 lead in their head to head matches. All have been tight matches played on hard courts, the last of which came here in Miami two years ago as Isner won a couple of tie-breakers to move through the draw and was eventually a beaten Finalist.

Both players have had success looking after their own serve in those head to head matches and I think we will see something similar here. All four of their previous matches have needed at least 26 games played between them and the first three went the distance.

The feeling is that both are going to have successes on the serve, but the two players have been guilty of some sloppy service games which could see this match go the distance too. It certainly suggests the match is one that can see this total games line surpassed, even on a slower surface that is a regular feature of the Miami Masters.

Alexander Bublik v Taylor Fritz: The absence of a number of the top 100 players in the World Rankings will have hurt the Miami Masters draw and appeal to the fans, but it is also a big opportunity for players to pick up some vital Ranking points. Both Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik are in the top 50 of the World Rankings and reaching a Masters Quarter Final will be a huge boost, especially ahead of the clay court season when neither is expected to have a massive impact.

There is some pressure on both players knowing the opportunity they have in front of them and I don't think either is going to be worried about the match up.

Taylor Fritz was perhaps a little more fortunate to reach the Fourth Round having secured a tight win over Cameron Norrie in the Third Round, while Alexander Bublik has made the kind of light work that would have been expected of him when the matches were set for the last couple of Rounds. This is the toughest match that Bublik will have faced in the tournament, but he is showing signs of improvement as the confidence builds.

I expect there to be plenty of service games where both Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik are able to shorten points and rip through them in short order. Both players have very similar service numbers on the hard courts in 2021 with both winning around 66% of service points played and both holding 85% of service games played.

There are also similarities with the returning performances with both winning 34% of return points played on the hard courts, although Alexander Bublik has perhaps played the bigger points a little better having broken in 21% of return games played compared with Taylor Fritz' 18% mark.

It is a Fourth Round match with all the hallmarks of being a close one, but I do think Alexander Bublik has the mental edge having won both previous matches between these players. Those have come on the hard courts and it is Bublik who has managed to hold in 96% of the service games he has played compared with Taylor Fritz' 89% mark in those matches.

I do note that it is Taylor Fritz who has created more of the break points in both matches, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he can turn the form around. However I think the overall season performances on the big points seem to favour Alexander Bublik and he may just edge past Taylor Fritz as the underdog, and especially at a price where he seems to be under-rated quite significantly in my opinion.

A three setter can't be ruled out and I do think both would have preferred quicker conditions, but I like the way Alexander Bublik has been playing and his numbers suggest he may have the slight edge in this one. I feel the wrong player is being favoured in the Fourth Round match and I will back the underdog to move into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

John Isner-Roberto Bautista Agut Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 27-21, + 5.32 Units (96 Units Staked, + 5.54% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 7 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 29th)

The second week of the Miami Masters begins with the entire Fourth Round of the WTA tournament being played on Monday.

The same will happen for the ATP players remaining in the draw on Tuesday in the build towards the Finals that are set for this weekend as the final hard court event for the next several months is completed. Both Tours will quickly move onto clay court tennis events from early April with the run right through to the French Open at the end of May, but it will be a few weeks until the players are playing at the same event again.

It has been an up and down few days for the Tennis Picks, but I have been left frustrated with some of the inches that have gone against me on Day 6.

Both Elise Mertens and Karen Khachanov failed to hit despite looking like the stronger players on the day- Merten won the match with her two sets coming by the same 6/2 score, but dropping the middle set 0/6 ended that selection.

The latter had his chances to win his match against Jannik Sinner in the second set, but Khachanov played a really poor tie-breaker and that eventually caught up with him in a close defeat. Swing those two matches the other way and it would have been a strong day, but it is the way it goes sometimes and the one thing I can say is that I am happy with the methods that identified both matches as potential winners.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: This is remarkably the fourth tournament in a row where Andrey Rublev and Marton Fucsovics are set to meet and it is Rublev who has found the win in the previous two with one of the matches resulting in a walkover in his favour too.

The matches have been competitive at times, but Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the numbers breakdown and it is only missing out on some key break point chances that made the first of those two matches much closer on the scoreboard than the second.

Andrey Rublev has won 72% of the points played behind his serve in those two matches that have been completed against Marton Fucsovics over the last month and that is compared to the 58% mark that the Hungarian has. Despite that mark, Fucsovics has held 81% of his service games played as he has weathered the storm of the break points being faced, but I expect another match where it is Andrey Rublev who has the better of the opportunities.

The Russian has been serving really well and he is adept at playing on the slower surfaces which should make him pretty comfortable on the Miami courts too. He crushed Tennys Sandgren in the Second Round, while Marton Fucsovics had a much tougher match and was a little fortunate to get past Thanasi Kokkinakis.

I really like the way Marton Fucsovics has played this season, but his numbers have taken a significant dent when going up against the top 20 Ranked opponents he has faced. I think that is going to be the case in this Third Round match and Andrey Rublev is returning well enough to cover this handicap.

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: This Third Round match involves two players who have only needed to win a single match to reach this stage of the Miami Masters.

One of the key differences between Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz is that the former has to spend over three hours on the court to earn his victory, while Hurkacz was out for a little over an hour and a half in a more route win. Denis Shapovalov is likely going to blame himself for having spent as much time on the court as he failed to take the break point chances when they came up, but I am not sure it should be a factor that hinders him too much considering there has been a break in days between matches.

At the Australian Open Denis Shapovalov was able to win a match that was five minutes from ticking into a four hour scrap, but he did win his next match relatively comfortably. That should encourage the fact that Shapovalov is able to bring his best to the court on Monday in this Third Round match and he is going to need to serve well to get on top of his Polish opponent.

Hubert Hurkacz has a decent 9-5 record on the hard courts in 2021, but he is just 3-5 when it comes to playing top 100 Ranked opponents. He has struggled in the return aspect of his game in those matches, while he has held less than 80% of the service games played on the surface.

There is a weakness to the Denis Shapovalov return game which is a major concern for his development in the immediate future. It will likely mean it is difficult for the Canadian to go deep in the big tournaments being played, but his aggressive style was key to beating Hubert Hurkacz in Dubai and I think that is going to be the game plan for Shapovalov in this match too.

The slower hard courts should aid Shapovalov somewhat as well and I like the Canadian's chances of earning the majority of the break points in this match which should give him the room to cover the handicap set.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a very difficult opening to the season for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who improved to 4-3 on the hard courts with his win in the Second Round. The worrying part of that record is that only two of those matches have been played against top 100 World Ranked opponents and Schwartzman will likely be looking forward to getting back on the clay courts in the weeks ahead.

Despite all of my concerns, I do think this is a hard court that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman should enjoy, while the match up with Adrian Mannarino may be one that suits him.

The Frenchman is a solid player and one that can be tough to beat when he is finding his best tennis, but Adrian Mannarino is only 5-6 on the hard courts. The serve has always been pretty average and Mannarino is likely going to be tested by the returning ability that Schwartzman has, but I think he will also have success on the return and that is where this spread could be a wide one.

Breaks of serve could come pretty frequently, but that also does mean there is every chance that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman could win the match by putting at least one set on the board with a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino. He definitely has the edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the hard courts over the last fifteen months and over the last two months Schwartzman has broken in 40% of return games played compared with Mannarino's 23% mark.

There is only a very slight difference in percentage of points won behind serve and that is where the returning of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman may just see him come out on top in this match.

I imagine this could be a match that goes pretty long when you think of the kind of rallies that may develop with very few cheap points being won, but Schwartzman may get the better enough of those to get into a position to cover the handicap in this one. The returning differences gives Schwartzman the edge and I think he will earn his place in the Fourth Round with a decent win behind him.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 22-16, + 6.32 Units (76 Units Staked, + 8.32% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 6 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 28th)

The conditions in Miami have been very hot, but the wind has picked up around the courts and that has made things tougher for players who have not really been able to hit through the court as they would on other hard courts around the Tour.

It has made for some decent Tennis being played before the move onto the clay courts and the extended rallies will have encouraged some of those who are happy on the red dirt. The big hitting players have had to temper some of their frustration when they have not seen the same reaction from their shots as they would have done when playing in the Middle East recently.

The clocks turn forward in the United Kingdom on Saturday which evening which means having to wait an extra hour before the opening matches in Miami on Sunday when Day 6 gets underway.

The remaining Third Round matches in the WTA tournament are set to be completed on another warm, but potentially windy, day and we will also see the beginning of the Third Round for the ATP players as we push towards the business end of the first Masters of the season. Some huge names are still in the draw and this is an important time for those on the WTA Tour to pick up some vital Ranking points with changes set to be made to the system which has been used to overcome the pitfalls produced by the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago.

I was hoping to have a fuller post for the Day 6 action, but that has not really panned out the way I wanted and instead I will get back to that on Day 7.

On Sunday you can see 'My Picks' for the matches scheduled.

I will update the Miami Masters totals on Sunday morning once the remaining Saturday matches have been completed. At the time of writing it does feel the Tennis Picks have bounced back after the poor Friday showing, but there are a couple of selections playing as I finish this thread which will determine whether it is a strong recovery or not.

MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sofia Kenin - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 18-12, + 7.58 Units (60 Units Staked, + 12.63% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte II (March 27th)

I don't really like revisionist history or those who use outcome bias to determine how they feel about something... Instead I think it is only right to be honest about what you felt about something and admit when you have got things wrong.

Early in his career I saw Lawrence Okolie as an awkward fighter who is very big for the Cruiserweight Division, but one who had a tendency to fight very cautiously which led to some boring grab and hug fights when he has stepped up.

In saying that I did think he was going to be good enough to stop Krzysztof Glowacki, although I needed one more Round to bring home a winning Pick.

Regardless of that, I did think Lawrence Okolie produced a career best performance in completely befuddling a former World Champion and doing it in a very appealing style. Shane McGuigan should be given some credit for the work he is doing with the new World Champion, but I have to also credit Okolie for implementing the game plan to the highest level and I am now looking forward to seeing him back out there if he can build on this performance.

Lawrence Okolie unsurprisingly called out the other World Champions as he looks to Unify the Division and has admitted he is looking to go up to the newly formed Bridgerweight Division before ultimately landing with the Heavyweights where he also believes he can make his mark. Winning a World Title is clearly a very big personal achievement for Okolie, but I think it is also important that he would have gained some favourable feedback on the type of performance he put in to win that Title and it is going to lead to more willing to sit down and watch him when he is back out there.

No matter what people say, it is very important to be appealing to watch as much as it is to be a quality Boxer and Lawrence Okolie might be ticking both boxes going forward which will be a surprise to many, including myself. The talent was not really questioned, but the style had been and I hope he can push on an look to impose himself going forward in the manner he did to blow out Glowacki.

Artur Beterbiev was also back last weekend, although Adam Dienes will have left that fight with his stock higher than it was going into it. Shaking off the ring rust is important for Beterbiev who is looking to take on the other Light Heavyweight Champions later this year and potentially become the leading name to take on Canelo Alvarez in 2022 assuming the Mexican superstar Unifies the Super Middleweight Division in the remainder of this calendar year.

We also saw Vergil Ortiz Jr continue his rampage up the Welterweight Rankings with a win over former World Champion Maurice Hooker in Seven tough Rounds last weekend. The young man looks like a star in the making and doesn't want to be slowed down as he called out the very best names in the 147 pound Division for a bout later this year. I like the style, although Ortiz Jr looks like he is still short of the likes of Errol Spence Jr or Terence Crawford and another couple of fights at the level between Hooker and the elite of the Division could stand Vergil Ortiz Jr in good stead going forward.

A card that was scheduled to be showcased earlier this month has come around on Saturday 27th March and it is headlined by Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin who get set for a big rematch from a stunning upset seen at Fight Camp last August.

The Heavyweight Division is currently on hold as we look to see whether the two Champions Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua can agree a date for their first bout and that means the contenders are still waiting to see what they will do while waiting for a World Title bid.

Both Povetkin and Whyte are amongst the leading names looking to challenge for full World Title honours going forward, but this is a big rematch first. The WBC Title shot is unlikely to come before 2022, but the winner will have an Interim World Title Belt to carry around and it is a huge fight for both with the losing Boxer struggling where to go next.

A win for Whyte could set up the trilogy if Fury-Joshua are locked down for two fights, but it is a big night for the British Heavyweight who was stunned in the first fight several months ago.

There are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard in Gibraltar, while Queensberry have scheduled a couple of cards for Friday and Saturday as they showcase some of the talent they have under their promotional banner.

However, most eyes will be on the big fight in Gibraltar and especially after the fireworks seen the first time around.

Willy Hutchinson vs Lennox Clarke

The vacant British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Titles are on the line when Willy Hutchinson and Lennox Clarke meet in the main event of the Queensbury card coming live from London on Saturday evening.

The two Belts were fought for by Lennox Clarke in his last bout seventeen months ago, but he was on the wrong side of a Split Decision against Lerrone Richards. It was a close fight between two unbeaten fighters on the night, but Richards got the nod and has moved ahead without the Titles which gives Clarke the second straight opportunity to pick them up.

Once again Lennox Clarke will be in with an unbeaten fighter, although the man from the Midlands should still be confident with only the sole loss on his record. He is talking a good game in the build up to this Title bout, but it does have to be noted that Lennox Clarke has not really been in with too many high level opponents and his overall record may be a little padded.

He has certainly not been in the ring with too many like Willy Hutchinson, the unbeaten Scotsman who has looked very comfortable on his move up the Rankings. This is only the fourteenth fight that 'Braveheart' will have had as a professional, but big things are expected of him and so far he has met every challenger brilliantly.

No one will doubt that this is the toughest fight that Hutchinson will have had in the pro ranks, but he is plenty confident and hits pretty hard and that makes him dangerous. A decent amateur pedigree suggests the skills are strong too and I do think Willy Hutchinson is someone who can push on towards World Titles going forward.

I don't think Hutchinson is going to need to go looking for Lennox Clarke in this Title bout and I think we could be rewarded with a decent scrap. My issue for Clarke is that I am not sure he has the power to stand and trade with Willy Hutchinson through the entirety of the Twelve Rounds scheduled and the Scot can begin to break him down.

While we have yet to see Willy Hutchinson in with someone of Lennox Clarke's level and standing, I do think the former is above this level and will show that here. He has power and the skills and I think Hutchinson will be able to wear down Clarke who may find this is an opponent even better than the last unbeaten fighter he faced.

Being out of the ring for almost eighteen months is not ideal preparation for Lennox Clarke and I like Willy Hutchinson to keep pushing up the World Rankings with a big stoppage win.

Erik Pfeifer vs Nick Webb

A number of Heavyweight fights are scheduled on the undercard of the Alexander Povetkin-Dillian Whyte rematch this weekend and this is set to be a Ten Rounder.

Realistically I would be very surprised if we need the final bell when Erik Pfeifer and Nick Webb meet in the ring and anything less than a win for the former would likely make it very difficult to build on the unbeaten start to life in the pro ranks. Erik Pfeifer has a decent amateur record, but at 34 years old he can't afford a setback at this stage of his career and he is not exactly going up against one of the elite of the blue ribbon Division.

The German may have been a familiar name to British fight fans if he had been given the opportunity to fight Daniel Dubois last summer and since then Erik Pfeifer has signed on with Dillian Whyte. That suggests this is nothing more than a showcase fight against Nick Webb who has been stopped twice before in his career and not against elite competition either.

I am not sure Erik Pfeifer will be an elite Heavyweight, but he has a decent amateur career which suggests he will be better than Dave Allen and Kamil Sokolowski who both needed fewer than Five Rounds to stop Nick Webb.

The latter has put three wins on the board since the last of those defeats and won the Golden Robe at Ultimate Boxxer 6 in December 2019, but Nick Webb has not been in the ring since then. That is less time out of the ring than Erik Pfeifer, but I think his level has been found out and I do think Pfeifer will be able to take advantage of what has been a pretty short gas tank Webb has displayed previously.

It could be fun early as both let their hands go, but I think Erik Pfeifer can ride out any storm he faces and stop Nick Webb in the first half of this one. Dillian Whyte has signed the Heavyweight to fast track him up the Rankings and this will be a good chance for Pfeifer to show the watching public what he is about in a solid Division.

Chris Kongo vs Michael McKinson

Two unbeaten British Welterweights believe they have been overlooked by their peers both domestically and abroad, but Chris Kongo and Michael McKinson have an opportunity they can't afford to miss on Saturday evening.

It doesn't matter that both believe they should be operating at a much higher level and with a bigger profile. Boxing is a sport where you have to take your chances when they pop up and being on a big rematch undercard gives Kongo and McKinson a solid opportunity to try and steal the show and then move into a position where they can challenge the big names around the 147 pound Division.

Experience is very much in favour of Michael McKinson who is 19-0, but there is a concern about his power. Only two of those wins have been by stoppage, although McKinson has Knocked Down the last two opponents he has faced before winning by Decision. He is also a southpaw which can be very awkward to face and McKinson is obviously quite happy to put his Boxing together and pile up the Rounds.

I expect that will be the game plan in this big fight for McKinson who has not really had the stand out, eye catching win on the resume. However, Michael McKinson has won his last five fights against opponents who have lost a combined four times and I expect he will look to make life awkward for his opponent by moving and popping as much as he can.

The problem is the lack of power and I do think Chris Kongo will be willing to walk through what he has in front of him to land the big shots of his own. He has shown he has plenty of pop in the punches and Chris Kongo has found the stoppage in seven of his wins while building up the 12-0 record as a professional.

He did really impress in stopping Luther Clay during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August and I think that power edge is going to be critical in a fight where Kongo may drop some of the early Rounds as he gets to grip with where he expects the southpaw to be.

I do think McKinson has the skills to win this fight on the cards, but I believe the power will be telling when all is said and done and that favours Chris Kongo. The latter has had a decent amateur schooling which suggests he can win a Decision on the cards, but I think he will need to impose himself on Michael McKinson and hurt him to win this fight.

Both can come again even if they lose, but my feeling is that Chris Kongo may have a come from behind win here as he finds the power shots to force the referee to step in even when he may be down on the cards.

Ted Cheeseman vs James Metcalf

There are some solid names at Light-Middleweight in the British ranks and two of them meet for the right to hold the British Title at 154 pounds.

James Metcalf is the unbeaten favourite, but he has been out of the ring over the last thirteen months and the Liverpudlian has only fought a single Round since his stand out win in June 2019 over Jason Welborn. The rest of the fighters that make up his 21-0 record don't really leap off the page and even the win over Welborn will be questioned by some who believe he had seen his best days at that point of his career.

You can't really argue that, but Kid Shamrock will have the confidence of an unbeaten fighter and a win over Ted Cheeseman would set him up for some big North West battles against the likes of Scott Fitzgerald and Anthony Fowler. At 32 years old it is time for Metcalf to really start motoring up the Rankings if he is going to achieve something really big in his Boxing career and a win on Saturday will certainly put him in a position to demand some of the biggest names in Britain going forward.

Winning won't be easy against Ted Cheeseman who is looking to get his own career back on track after some inconsistent performances over the last couple of years. Some of that was down to issues Cheeseman had been having outside of the ring, but he sounds like he is over those now and the Londoner has operated at a higher level than Metcalf.

Ted Cheeseman had been beaten by Sergio Garcia and Scott Fitzgerald and been awarded a disputed Draw with Kieron Conway as his career stalled, but he did earn an important Decision win over Sam Eggington during Matchroom's Fight Camp last August. The underdog also felt he deserved the Decision against Fitzgerald, something that others agreed with, and I do think Cheeseman is more than the rough, come forward fighter he was earlier in his career.

in the last couple of fights he has showcased some of his Boxing skills which have been important for a Boxer who has been involved in a number of wars already. I expect Ted Cheeseman to try and impose his skills in this fight against James Metcalf too, but I also like the resiliency he has displayed which means he can step into the pocket and mix it with opponents if necessary.

I am a little surprised that Metcalf is such a strong favourite to win this fight as I do feel he has plenty to prove despite the unbeaten record. This is a considerable step up and I am not sure Kid Shamrock has the power to stop The Big Cheese in this one, while I have been impressed by the some of the Boxing displayed by Ted Cheeseman in his last couple of fights.

My feeling is that Ted Cheeseman is being written off a little too easily in this one and I will back the underdog to find a way to reach a level that James Metcalf has yet to display. It should be one of the fights of the night with both willing to stand in the pocket and trade big shots, but I think the superior Boxing may come from Cheeseman which will lead to a tight win on the scorecards as he picks up the British Title again.

Fabio Wardley vs Eric Molina

There are two Heavyweight up and comers who are under the guidance of Dillian Whyte these days and thus have an opportunity to perform on the undercard of this PPV fight.

Erik Pfeifer will be out earlier in the night, but Fabio Wardley will be in a spot where a lot more eyes will be on him as he looks to step up his level of competition. He might not have the same amateur experiences as Pfeifer, but Fabio Wardley feels further along as a professional and he will be looking for a tenth stoppage and an eleventh win from eleven fights.

A blow out win over Richard Lartey saw Wardley better the likes of Daniel Dubois and Nathan Gormon in getting him out in Two Rounds, and he has had two solid wins as he stepped up his level of competition in 2020.

Now he takes on a fighter who has been in World Title fights and shared the ring with some of the very biggest names in the Division. Eric Molina is definitely on the late road of his career, but he will look for the experience gained from fighting the likes of Deontay Wilder, Anthony Joshua and Dominic Breazeale to stand him in good stead.

However, Molina has not fought since a Third Round Stoppage at the hands of Filip Hrgovic in December 2019 and that kind of lay off is hard to ignore. All six previous losses have been by Stoppage too and I do wonder if there is going to be much will to stand up to the kind of test a young and hungry fighter like Fabio Wardley will bring to the ring.

The British fighter is athletic and looks to hit plenty hard enough to beat Eric Molina at this stage of his career and the only question for me is how long the latter is able to last. The first two defeats in his career came in the First Round, but Eric Molina was able to reach the Third Round against both Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic.

Matching those results will be very impressive by Fabio Wardley if he can do that, but the young Heavyweight has admitted that he may need to weather some of the early storm before imposing his will on this fight. As I have said, the biggest question may actually be how much Eric Molina is going to want to take from a younger, fresher Heavyweight and I am not buying into the words of the American when he suggests he has found holes that can be exploited.

I think this fight is like to go a few Rounds, but Fabio Wardley has only allowed a single opponent to get past the Fourth Round and that was a rugged Argentinian who was eventually Stopped in the Sixth Round. Eric Molina has not shown the same kind of resistance even though he did make it to the second half of the bouts with Dominic Breazeale and Deontay Wilder before being undone.

The defeat to Breazeale was in late 2017 and Eric Molina has only had two fights since then which suggests he could be a little rusty in this one too. Fabio Wardley might need a touch longer than he did against Richard Lartey, but I would not be surprised if he matched Anthony Joshua and Filip Hrgovic in producing a Third Round finish.

Even if Molina is able to get out of that Third Round, I think the tide would have turned by then and Fabio Wardley has shown the finishing power to make sure the American veteran is not able to hear the bell to signal the start of the Fifth Round.

Alexander Povetkin vs Dillian Whyte

I had a look back at my thoughts before the first fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin which ultimately concluded that I believed Whyte would win by Stoppage.

Back in August I felt that some of the punch resistance from Alexander Povetkin had gone having shown vulnerability in the Draw with Michael Hunter, and also the fact that he had been hurt by David Price. I figured Dillian Whyte had the power to hurt Povetkin even more than Hunter, but did write that I would not be that surprised if Alexander Povetkin was to hurt the British fighter too.

Much of what I had written seemed to be coming to fruition, but I did not figure Povetkin would find the punch he did to basically KO Dillian Whyte before he had even hit the floor. It was truly the most special of uppercuts and that coming in the Round immediately after being put on the canvas twice himself.

No will have doubted the amateur experience of Alexander Povetkin which meant he was showing off some of his skills in the first fight as he targeted the Dillian Whyte body, but the reduction of punch resistance was evident having been put down twice. Neither of the punches that put Povetkin on the floor were clean and it does suggest that a more aggressive Dillian Whyte might be able to earn plenty of revenge in this rematch.

I am usually of the feeling that you can't really recover from a Knock Out defeat in a rematch, but there are exceptions to the rule. Anthony Joshua showed that against Andy Ruiz Jr and I do think Dillian Whyte will be desperate to right what he will feel was a wrong in losing the first fight.

Alexander Povetkin is that much older now and he has also had to battle against Covid-19 since winning at Fight Camp and I do think he will need to find a special punch to win this one. Dillian Whyte could decide to keep things at range a little longer than he did in the first fight, but he will also know he can hurt the veteran and this time I don't believe Whyte will hold off when he does put Alexander Povetkin in trouble.

There are going to be denials now, but I do think Alexander Povetkin was close to being pulled in the first fight before finding his best punch. If he gets too carried away with looking for the one punch to turn things again, I expect Dillian Whyte to use the jab and heavier shots to hurt the veteran who does look like his best days are behind him.

Some are expecting this one to go much longer than the first fight, but I think we will see a similar fight develop with Dillian Whyte being a touch more aggressive to make sure he doesn't allow Povetkin to stick around. Anthony Joshua took Seven Rounds to get Alexander Povetkin out after getting through an early storm, but I think Dillian Whyte will have more control from the first bell and this time he will be the one with the big Stoppage win and likely earlier than Joshua managed to do against the Russian former World Champion.

MY PICKS: Willy Hutchinson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Erik Pfeifer to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Chris Kongo to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ted Cheeseman to Win @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

Fabio Wardley to Win Between 3-4 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dillian Whyte to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 7-14, - 5.18 Units (40 Units Staked, - 12.95% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 5 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 27th)

It has not been a very good day for the Tennis Picks on Day 4 at the time of writing, but I am going to be updating the Miami Masters numbers on Saturday.

As poor as the day has been, I am still hopeful it won't completely erase the start to the week that has been made, but that will only be decided once the selections that are scheduled to be played later in the day complete their matches.

On Day 5 the WTA Third Round begins, while the ATP tournament completes their own Third Round line up with the remaining Second Round matches scheduled. Windy conditions on a slower court is making life a little more difficult for the players heading out there, but I am hoping that the following Tennis Picks get this tournament back on track.

I have had a busy Friday so I am not going to be able to write out full analysis for the Tennis Picks, but I have managed to find the matches that have fit my criteria and I looking for a positive return from them.

I should have a few of the Tennis Picks written out for the Sunday post when Day 6 is set to begin.

[UPDATE]: That was a pretty horrific day, but it happens and you just have to roll with the punches and accept it is 'one of those days'.

I didn't have much luck early and it seemed to snowball through the day, but you have to take it as it comes. Hopefully Day 5 will be a lot stronger all in all.

MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics-Thanasi Kokkinakis Over 22.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 11-9, + 0.96 Units (40 Units Staked, + 2.40% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 4 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 26th)

The first Masters of the 2021 season is being played in its usual spot in the calendar and these tournaments are likely to be very important with the Ranking system due to change back to the 52 Week system rather than the two year system being used right now.

A part of the reason was the havoc created by the Covid-19 crisis twelve months ago, and that means the next four months are going to see a number of the tournaments being played that could not be played in their usual spots last season. Some, like Miami, were not played at all, while the French Open will move back to it's May spot in the calendar and it does mean there is still a dispute between the players and the Tours as to how the Rankings are looking right now.

I am hoping the clay court season can be played in full this time around and that should also lead into the return of grass court tennis which was cancelled last year. By the time all of those tournaments are in the books, the Ranking system will be close to be returning to the usual criteria and that will see some vast changes being made on both the ATP and WTA Tours.

Players can't do much about the Rankings for now and so it is important to focus on their tennis and win as many matches as possible to win Titles and be in a position where their positions will more closely reflect their current performances. It may mean a couple of lopsided Slam draws coming up before the US Open later in the year, but there has to be a time when the players stop talking about things and just prepare for the impending return to normality for the system.

The opening three days at the Miami Masters have returned a profit each time and that has put down a strong foundation for the Tennis Picks at this tournament. I have had my fair share of luck with the big points of matches landing in my favour in a couple of matches and that has helped put this start together.

I have to be honest and mention that because I did write last month how you need a bit of luck with every Tennis Pick made no matter how much research you put into finding the selections you want. Ultimately it doesn't take much for a match to swing one way or another and you just have to hope those you pick can play their best tennis at the most pressurised of moments.

So far this week it has happened in my favour having previously been disappointed to have been on the wrong end of those moments- both Frances Tiafoe and Simona Halep have covered with a late run of games in the last couple of days, but it has evened things up from last month and hopefully I can continue to get the rub of the green to go with solid selections who have managed to win their matches even more comfortably than I could have imagined.

The full selections for Day 4 and the updated totals from the Miami Masters can be read below.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert over 22.5 games: The conditions in Miami have historically been slower than the majority of the hard courts the players will perform on over the course of the Tennis Tour. This year doesn't feel any different, but it will still be difficult for two solid servers and limited returners to make an impact when it comes to breaking the other's serve in this Second Round match.

Both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be pretty happy with the performances to open the 2021 season with both players deciding to take in the hard court events where they can.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has reached the Final of one tournament and was a Quarter Finalist in Acapulco last week as well as a Fourth Round loser at the Australian Open. He will still regret blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in Melbourne, but overall a 9-4 start to the 2021 season will have given the young Canadian something to build upon.

While he received a Bye into the Second Round in Miami, Pierre-Hugues Herbert was a very easy winner in the First Round. The Frenchman is back for the first time since losing a tight Final in Marseille against Daniil Medvedev, but the run in one of the tournaments played on his home soil will have given Herbert a boost after a relatively low-key start to the season which included a First Round defeat at the Australian Open.

The serve has always been a big part of the Pierre-Hugues Herbert game and he has won 67% of points played behind that shot. It has led to him holding 82% of service games played on the hard courts and it is the kind of mark that Herbert has been used to producing on this surface and he will be confident against an opponent like Felix Auger-Aliassime who can be erratic when it comes to the return.

There is no doubting the talent Auger-Aliassime has, but the return has seen him break in just 20% of return games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2021. It is a number we have become accustomed in seeing from the young Canadian, but his own serve has produced a hold in 83% of service games played. Much like himself, Pierre-Hugues Herbert has struggled to really impose himself on the return of serve and has broken in 21% of return games played this season.

Again it should be noted this is very similar to the level Herbert has been used to putting on the court and I am not surprised that in the two previous meetings between these players that the serve has dominated. Both of those previous matches came on the indoor hard courts of Montpellier and Marseille just prior to the global lockdown back in February 2020 and four of the five sets needed twelve games to separate the two players.

Three of those have ended with tie-breakers and Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 96% of the service games played against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, while the latter held 89% of his own games. The feeling is that this match could go in a similar direction despite the slower conditions in Miami and the two players can combine to surpass the total games line.

Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: 2021 has started much better for Alexei Popyrin than it has for Reilly Opelka, and the former may be a decent price underdog to win this Second Round match.

However it is always dangerous to take on Reilly Opelka with the monster serve he possesses and particularly with a limited returner like Popyrin. The latter did have a good win over Feliciano Lopez in the First Round, but the veteran Spaniard is not the player he once was and Alexei Popyrin will know that is going to be a completely different kind of test for him.

He has won a ATP Title in Singapore this season which is going to give Alexei Popyrin plenty of belief to take forward, and he is almost certainly going to hit a career best World Ranking in the weeks ahead. That is all positive news for the Australian who has held almost 87% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021 and will likely believe he can at least control that side of his performance against Reilly Opelka.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Reilly Opelka has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts and he may not have a lot of joy out of this one as long as Alexei Popyrin is focused and not frustrated. Like many of the really big servers on the Tour like John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, Reilly Opelka can build scoreboard pressure by rolling through his own service games and shift the pressure onto an opponent to stay with him.

That may be the case in this match when you think Opelka has held 91% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2021. There is no doubt that Alexei Popyrin has a superior return game compared with the American, but Popyrin has only broken in 18% of return games played on the hard courts and it does feel like a match that is likely going to go long even in the slower conditions that the players will be dealing with.

Alexei Popyrin is 11-3 in tie-breakers played this season compared with Reilly Opelka being 4-6 and I do think the former can upset the odds. However I do mainly feel this is going to be a Second Round match that is going to be massively dominated by the serve and it could easily be one that surpasses the total games mark set, even at the mark where it currently is.

I would not be surprised at all if the winner of this match needs to win two tie-breakers to move through to the Third Round and so backing these two big servers to combine to surpass the total games line on Friday.

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: One player who feels like he has a bigger profile than his Tennis warrants can sometimes be incredibly overrated as the layers know the money is likely to come down in his favour. Grigor Dimitrov is an inconsistent player who might have reached Number 3 in the World Rankings, but has never played in a Grand Slam Final and has only made it through to three Slam Semi Finals.

Relatively speaking that isn't a bad career, but it has felt like Dimitrov warrants more headlines than a player with that kind of career has deserved. Some of that may be down to being linked with Roger Federer as his early 'Baby Fed' moniker perhaps gave Dimitrov a higher platform than was warranted.

He hasn't played badly to open 2021, and Dimitrov has reached the Quarter Final at all three events he has played on the hard courts. That is encouraging, but Grigor Dimitrov's losses to Corentin Moutet, Aslan Karatsev and Lorenzo Musetti are disappointing ones and he will feel he has missed an opportunity to go much deeper into those tournaments.

Grigor Dimitrov would likely look to improve the service numbers if he is going to maintain his current level through the course of the season. Over the last fifteen months the return of serve has been keeping Dimitrov going as he has produced numbers that have not really been a feature of recent seasons and that could be key to the outcome of this Second Round match.

The Bulgarian takes on Cameron Norrie who pulled a victory from the jaws of defeat in the First Round and is one win away from matching the thirteen hard court wins he produced in 2020. Cameron Norrie has taken in a few more tournaments than Grigor Dimitrov, but he has put a number of good results in the books and, like his higher Ranked opponent, Norrie has really laid the foundation for his successes so far on the return game.

Both players will feel the conditions will aid their ability to get into the return games, although the feeling is that both Grigor Dimitrov and Cameron Norrie would ultimately prefer the faster hard courts. There are similarities with the way both have played this season, but Dimitrov looks to have been the slightly stronger behind his own serve and on the return and I think that shows up in this Second Round match.

I expect it will be quite a competitive match, but Grigor Dimitrov has the ability to make the flashy winners and produce a bit of magic tennis to edge the match in his favour. Cameron Norrie can be very good, but he is winning slightly fewer percentage points of service and return points and I do think the former top tenner will find his way to win and cover.

Daniel Evans v Frances Tiafoe: I can't really complain considering Frances Tiafoe got the job done for me a couple of days ago, but it was a very tight First Round match and he did have to spend over two hours on court to win the match. It underlined the point I made about Tiafoe being inconsistent within matches let alone from tournament to tournament and he remains a pretty average hard court player.

There is some talent coming from his racquet and a strong athleticism which keeps Frances Tiafoe competitive, but I do think it is right that he is set as the underdog in this match.

Daniel Evans has won a Title on the hard courts in 2021, but since then he has been beaten in three of four matches, although one was against Roger Federer and the other against Aslan Karatsev. In those two losses Evans was more than a little bit competitive and he will feel he was a point or two from turning those matches in his favour which will give him confidence even if the British player is going to be frustrated he didn't win either.

Neither of the last two opponents have created more break points than Daniel Evans in the match, but that won't make Evans feel that much happier.

He has made a decent start to the 2021 season on the hard courts and Daniel Evans has proven to be an effective returner which should cause problems for Frances Tiafoe. The latter has struggled returning on the hard courts in recent seasons, but Tiafoe will feel he can have some success in this match considering the early season form displayed in 2021.

Ultimately the serve has not been as effective and it has to be a little concern for Frances Tiafoe that he only has a 5-4 record on the hard courts in 2021 despite only playing one player Ranked inside the top 59 (although that was Novak Djokovic and ended in a four set loss at the Australian Open). When you actually have a look at the numbers and the level of competition, you do have to favour Daniel Evans to have a bit too much and get back to winning ways.

Daniel Evans has looked like he is playing the better tennis on the hard courts in 2021 and his numbers have looked stronger despite the fact that he has played a better level of competition. The British player is also 3-1 against Frances Tiafoe with all four matches having been played on the hard courts, and Daniel Evans has had the better of the head to head numbers with a slight advantage behind the serve.

I think there is a chance this goes long, but I think Evans can win the match and he looks like he is priced where he can be backed.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniel Evans @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 10-3, + 10.86 Units (26 Units Staked, + 41.77% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 3 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 25th)

The Miami Masters continues on Thursday and the way the draws and Qualifiers have been scheduled means the majority of the Second Round matches set to be played have not had full markets put together at the time of writing.

I do have a couple of Tennis Picks that I have found from the matches set to be played, but I may add some more when the full markets are available with some matches of interest as long as the handicaps hit my marks.

I will also update the weekly totals at the Miami Masters on Thursday when completing this thread. Any remaining Tennis Picks will be added to the 'My Picks' section at the bottom of the post.

[THURSDAY UPDATE] Another positive day has got the Miami Masters up and running for the Tennis Picks and I have updated the tally from the first two days below.

I have also added a few selections to the 'My Picks' section below now the full Second Round matches in the WTA tournament have been put together. On Friday the Second Round of the ATP tournament will begin and the remainder of the WTA matches will be completed and I will have a post up for any Picks from Day 4 in the next post which should go live later today.

Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro over 22.5 games: We haven't seen much of Kevin Anderson since he was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and that lack of tennis could hurt him as he enters the Miami Masters in the First Round. Injuries have really put up a couple of blockades on Anderson's career over the last couple of years, although the big South African still has a huge serve that at least gives him a chance in matches.

Like Anderson, Thiago Monteiro has not played a hard court match since the Australian Open, but the Brazilian has made use of the Golden Swing clay tournaments that are played in South America between the first Grand Slam of the season and the first Masters 1000 events. The early form on the hard courts was encouraging for Monteiro though and it took a big effort from Andrey Rublev to get past him at the Australian Open, while he has a run to the Semi Final under his belt this season.

In 2020 Thiago Monteiro might have finished with a 7-9 record on the hard courts, a win number he is close to matching in 2021 already, but it was largely down to the struggles on the return of serve. He actually held 88% of service games played on hard courts in 2020 and he won 70% of points played and Monteiro is backing that up early in 2021 with a 90% mark and 69% mark in those categories respectively.

Conditions in Miami can be slower, but those service numbers will be encouraging for Thiago Monteiro. The numbers have also been important for a player who broke in 14% of return games played on the hard courts last season and has only managed to improve that to 17% in 2021, and Thiago Monteiro will be tested by the Kevin Anderson serve which remains a big weapon for the former top 5 Ranked player.

Kevin Anderson is 2-2 in his limited hard court matches played in 2021, but he has won 72% of service points played which has led to a 93% hold mark going into the Miami Masters. The South African has always been a largely limited return player though and he has broken in just 10% of return games played on the hard courts in the four matches played this season, while the best mark Anderson has produced in recent years over the course of a season is an 18% break percentage in hard court matches.

Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was clearly a serve-orientated match until Thiago Monteiro found himself struggling and had to retire in the second set.

Despite the slower conditions, I think this is a match that is likely going to be controlled by the serve of the two players as they face limited returners. That should see at least one tie-breaker needed and I would not be that surprised if all sets competed go very deep.

With that in mind I think Kevin Anderson and Thiago Monteiro will combine to cover this total games like in what looks a tight match that will be decided by the inches with tie-breakers possibly the only way to split them.

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: It wasn't exactly in the manner I would have expected, but Barbora Krejcikova was able to earn her place in the Second Round in Miami a couple of days ago. She just about held herself together to beat Anna Blinkova, but the Czech player will know she has to be a lot better if she is going to get the better of an ever improving Iga Swiatek.

Confidence will have been built from the run in Dubai when Barbora Krejcikova was beaten in the Final by Garbine Muguruza, but she did only beat one player inside the top 40 of the World Rankings at that tournament. That has been the test for Krejcikova on the Singles court as she has struggled to compete with the very best players on the Tour, but she has shown enough improvement to be respected.

There has been a definite increase in her level of performance in 2020 and 2021, but Iga Swiatek is a Grand Slam Champion and has looked to have taken that on board in a much stronger way than many first time winners in recent years.

She was a little disappointed with her performance in the Fourth Round loss to Simona Halep at the Australian Open, but Iga Swiatek has shown her mental strength to follow up by winning a WTA Title in Adelaide. Like Krejcikova, Swiatek was beaten by Garbine Muguruza in Dubai and she was not as competitive as the former in that match, but I do like the way the Pole has been performing on the hard courts.

The serve has been a big weapon for Iga Swiatek on this surface to open 2021, and it is the manner in which she has been able to look after the second serve which has impressed the most.

Iga Swiatek has a considerable advantage on the return of serve in this match and I do think that is going to be the key to the outcome. As well as Barbora Krejcikova has played, she has only won 39% of return points when playing against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season and Swiatek has been serving well enough to keep her at bay in this one before imposing her own return game on the match.

You don't really want to underestimate the Barbora Krejcikova first serve, but I expect Iga Swiatek to really attack the second serve. The feeling is that Swiatek will have a real edge when the rallies develop with the level she has shown on this surface and I think it is enough for the Pole to come through and cover the mark.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 5-2, + 4.18 Units (14 Units Staked, + 29.86% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 2 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 24th)

The opening days of the Miami Masters are going to involve a number of matches featuring Qualifiers and that means that not all the markets are compiled for the First Round matches.

I have a few selections from Day 2 of the main draw, but I could potentially add some Picks here once those matches featuring Qualifiers have some prices attached to them.

Day 1 turned a very slight profit with a 2-1 record, but a winning day is always one you have to appreciate. Hopefully it is the start of a positive two weeks to end the month before the clay court events start in early April.

I have my Tennis Picks below from Day 2, but I may still add a couple of Picks when the Qualifiers have been placed in the draws and if they fit the criteria.

Andrea Petkovic v Shuai Zhang: Injuries and a loss of form has afflicted both of these veterans of the WTA Tour and neither Andrea Petkovic nor Shuai Zhang has a lot of matches under their belt in 2021. Shuai Zhang is still considerably higher up the World Rankings than Andrea Petkovic, but that is partly down to the fact that 2020 was effectively a write off for the latter.

The German has opened 2021 at 1-3 on the Singles court, but Shuai Zhang isn't any better losing her sole match at the Australian Open and not participating in a Singles tournament either before or since the first Grand Slam of the season was played.

Andrea Petkovic will be disappointed with the results, but she has to be encouraged by how well she has competed. The numbers have backed that up and her last two matches have ended in final set decider defeats, and Petkovic has been returning well enough to believe she can still cause problems for opponents even if she is unlikely to turn back the clock and produce the form that took her into the top ten of the World Rankings a decade ago.

Well I think it is unlikely to be consistently produced to return to that kind of level in the World Rankings, but Petkovic has shown enough to open 2021 to believe she could find a way to earn her place back inside the top 100. The serve has some room for improvement, but that might also be a part of getting more comfortable performing on the knee, and it will be a test for Shuai Zhang to get on top of the return without the rhythm of playing competitive tennis.

It also should be noted that Andrea Petkovic has been returning well to open 2021 and that part of her game has regularly been stronger than the one that Shuai Zhang brings to the court. The Chinese player ended last season struggling on the hard courts too and I do think this pick 'em contests favours the narrow underdog.

It is Andrea Petkovic who leads the head to head 3-1, although their most recent match was won by Shuai Zhang. That came on a hard court to level up at 1-1, but both of those matches have been close and that is where the extra time Petkovic has spent in competition in 2021 could just give her the edge.

Neither has played for almost a month so it is only a narrow advantage having the matches behind her, but I think Andrea Petkovic can see this one through in three sets.

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: I like Frances Tiafoe and there have been times I have watched him play and wonder why he is not much higher up the World Rankings. For whatever reason, the American has not really been able to find the consistency he would have liked and the hard court numbers are pretty average when they are broken down without the emotion of how I feel about a particularly player.

It doesn't matter what I personally feel about Tiafoe and the potential he has, the numbers don't tend to lie.

In previous years the serve was important for Frances Tiafoe, but he seems to have been working on improving what has been a disappointing return game. However it has come with a slight drop in the service numbers as he is perhaps not working on that side of his game as much as he would have been and it does mean Tiafoe is barely above 0.500 in hard court matches played since 2018.

Some of those have come at the lower level in Challengers and Futures Tournaments, but the overall feeling about Tiafoe is that he blows hot and cold within events and sometimes even within single matches.

Frances Tiafoe takes on Stefanos Travaglia who has had a couple of strong runs on the hard courts before the Australian Open, but who has since lost his opening match at each of the last three hard court events played. The Italian has actually lost four matches in a row if you include his defeat in the Final of the tournament played in preparation for the Australian Open and it has been a difficult run for Travaglia.

To be fair, he isn't a bad hard court player and has to be respected for the kind of level he can bring to the court. The serve can be a big weapon for Stefano Travaglia, but he has not really played up to his previous level which may be down to the fact he has been up against better quality players this season compared with the usual level of events he takes in.

One of the defeats that Stefano Travaglia has suffered in the last four came against Frances Tiafoe when these two met at Melbourne Park and it turned into a routine win for the latter after a tough opening set. On that day Tiafoe won 50% of return points played, although Travaglia did play well enough to win 40% of return points despite the relatively one-sided win produced by the American player.

The first set was tight and competitive that day because Frances Tiafoe was struggling behind serve, but he was very good in the last couple of sets. It can be hard to trust him at times because of the inconsistency I have mentioned, but Stefanos Travaglia has struggled in recent matches and I think the higher Ranked player can frank the win at the Australian Open.

Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: No one who watched will forget the efforts of Hugo Gaston at the French Open last October as he reached the Fourth Round before narrowly being beaten by Dominic Thiem. It helped him reach a career high World Ranking, but the 20 year old is still trying to push himself forward as he accepts a Wild Card into the Miami Masters.

In 2021 Hugo Gaston has reached the Semi Final of a hard court event on the Challenger Tour, but he has not really produced a lot of wins at the next level. Early defeats in Montpellier and Marseille have been suffered on indoor hard courts, while Gaston has struggled to impose his serve in hard court matches in his career so far.

The strength of the Frenchman's game is in the return of serve and he breaks at such a percentage that it does feel like he has a chance in this match. Hugo Gaston takes on Dominik Koepfer who reached the Semi Final in Acapulco in the last tournament before the Miami Masters, but who has only produced a 4-3 record on the hard courts in the 2021 season.

The Austrian has perhaps had the steadier hard court numbers of the two players and he has been pretty effective on the return of serve which means he should be able to match Hugo Gaston's strength and have the better of the weakness. Where Dominik Koepfer has been able to win around 62% of his service points played and hold 76% of his service games, Hugo Gaston has a 59% and 73% mark respectively despite playing the majority of his matches on a level below the main ATP one.

Dominik Koepfer also has the slightest of better returning numbers with 39% of return points won compared to Hugo Gaston's 38% mark on the hard courts and I do think the confidence of the performances in Acapulco hold the former in good stead. Conditions in Miami can sometimes be a touch slower than the other hard courts on the Tour, which will favour Gaston, but Dominik Koepfer is playing well enough to earn at least two more breaks of serve than the Frenchman over the course of this match.

While not a guarantee, the feeling is that those breaks will be enough to cover this mark as Koepfer moves through to the Second Round.

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: It has been as solid a start to 2021 for Cameron Norrie as it has been a poor one for Yoshihito Nishioka and the feeling is that the British player can get the better of this First Round match.

While Nishioka has won just two matches so far, Cameron Norrie has a Quarter Final and a Semi Final run under his belt, while the latter has also managed to earn his way through Qualifiers at other events to keep some momentum going. Cameron Norrie will be happy with his numbers having found some rhythm on the return side of the game which has enable him to back up the successes he has had behind the serve.

No one will dispute that there is room for improvement for Norrie who would love to get a little closer to his career best World Ranking which was achieved a couple of years ago. The 79% number of holding service games is decent, but nothing spectacular on the hard courts, but Cameron Norrie will be much happier with the almost 30% break percentage having won 41% of return points played on this surface this season.

Both of those are significant improvements on his 2020 numbers and Cameron Norrie seems to be playing the bigger points a little better which has seen him increase the percentage of service games being held compared with last season. Cameron Norrie will be tested by Yoshihito Nishioka who has shown he is a decent returner and will believe he can get after the Brit's serve.

Yoshihito Nishioka's real problems have been looking after the serve and he doesn't win a lot of cheap points which keeps him under some pressure. That has been the case this season, but a slight drop in the intensity on the return has meant it has been difficult for Nishioka to win matches and a real worry has to be how uncompetitive he has been in some of his defeats.

He has largely struggled on the return with only two of his eight matches played this season seeing Yoshihito Nishioka win at least 40% of return points played. It is not like the Japanese player and it has put him in a difficult position as he looks to improve his head to head lead over Cameron Norrie.

It is Yoshihito Nishioka who has won two of the three previous matches between these players, but they are 1-1 on the hard courts. The more recent of those matches was won by Cameron Norrie, although that was two years ago in Acapulco.

In that time the improvement looks to be in the Norrie performances and I think he is going to get the better of the return which should put him in a position to win the match and cover this mark. Yoshihito Nishioka is better than what he has shown in 2021, but he has struggled to impose his game on top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts since January 2020 including losing all six of those matches in 2021.

I expect that becomes all seven matches in the First Round in Miami and I think Cameron Norrie will win a few more of the big points to turn this match in his favour and cover this handicap spread set.

MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: 2-1, + 0.76 Units (6 Units Staked, + 12.67% Yield)