The tournament in Dubai has already reached the Quarter Final stage because the Final is due to be played on Saturday, but the rest of the events being played this week will complete the Quarter Final line up today.
As I have done all week, I am going to update the weekly totals once all the matches have been completed from the selections made. I will also add any selections from the ATP and WTA event being played in Acapulco when those markets are put together during the evening, but for now I have my Picks from Dubai and Sao Paulo which can be read below.
Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: There won't be many people who would argue against the natural talent and athleticism Gael Monfils possesses, but the Frenchman has perhaps not always focused on winning as much as he has on entertaining the fans. That has made Monfils a very popular figure on the Tour for fans and peers alike, but he has opened the 2019 season with a real focus and that has turned into some strong results.
He reached the Semi Final in Sofia and then backed that up by winning the title in Rotterdam the following weeks which has helped Gael Monfils begin to move back up the World Rankings. The numbers have been impressive on the hard courts in 2019 to produce the 11-2 record, but somehow Monfils has actually been even better this week in Dubai.
In the two wins over Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis, Gael Monfisl has held 90% of his service games and he has put immense pressure on those opponents which has produced a 42% break percentage. Both of those numbers are up on the 83% and 32% marks he has set for the 2019 season overall on the hard courts, but even those are very strong numbers being set by Monfils and he should be heading into this match feeling very good about himself.
Ricardas Berankis will also be feeling very positive after coming through a couple of Qualifiers and beating an in-form Daniil Medvedev in the First Round. The Lithuanian has been playing very well on the hard courts, but generally he has been playing a much lower level than the one he is dealing with in Dubai and the win over Medvedev is a rare success over top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.
While he has gone 2-1 in those matches in 2019, Berankis was 1-8 last season and his service and break percentages took a significant dent in those matches. He has been serving very well this week and in 2019 in general, but Gael Monfils is playing at an extremely high level and I think he will have a little too much for this opponent.
As well as Berankis' numbers indicate he is playing, Monfils' numbers are better on both the serve and return and I think that will see him earn a break more in each of the first two sets played and work his way to a cover of a big number.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: I might not have been behind him on Wednesday, but all credit has to be given to Hubert Hurkacz for the way he battled past Kei Nishikori. While a very good win on paper I do think Hurkacz was aided by his opponent who simply did not play anything like as well as he can.
It is unlikely Hurkacz will be able to rely on his opponent being out of sorts on Thursday in this Quarter Final as he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second week in a row. Last week these players met in Marseille as Tsitsipas put a dominant win on the board over Hurkacz on his way to winning the title there.
On that day Tsitsipas produced one of his stronger performances when it comes to returning the serve and he will believe he can do the same here. As well as Hurkacz played against Nishikori, the serve was not as dominant as he would like and he has continued to just struggle when he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts.
Last week Hurkacz did not break the Tsitsipas serve and he won less than 20% of the points against the serve which will put him in a very difficult spot if he repeats that here. The serve has been a potent weapon for the Greek star in 2019 in general and very much so this week in Dubai as he has put two wins on the board to reach this Quarter Final.
I have mentioned before that it can be hard to trust Tsitsipas to cover big numbers because of a limited return game, but he has had his eye in so far this week. That has led to him breaking in just under 32% of the return games played and he did find three breaks of the Hurkacz serve last week in Marseille which will give him confidence to take in this Quarter Final.
Two breaks of serve may be enough for Tsitsipas to cover in this one if Hurkacz is not able to have much success getting into the return games. I think the Greek player can do that here and I will back him to cover the handicap in this Quarter Final.
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Hugo Dellien: The South American Golden Swing early in the season can give some of the lesser lights on the Tour a real chance to make an impact on a big stage. Both Hugo Dellien and Juan Ignacio Londero have spent a lot more time on the Challenger circuit rather than playing in these main ATP events, but both have made use of their opportunities and also improved their World Rankings over the last month.
In fact both players reached a career high World Ranking at the start of this week when the new Rankings were released. That would have given them a boost and now they meet in the Second Round in Sao Paulo looking to reach another Quarter Final.
Hugo Dellien did that last week in Rio de Janeiro, but Juan Ignacio Londero has been even more impressive after taking the title home in Cordoba to open up the Golden Swing.
One of the key reasons for the successes that both players have had is the strong returning numbers produced that has seen both Dellien and Londero break serve at a very good percentage on the clay courts. Their return numbers are very, very similar, but the Londero has been a significantly more effective server on the clay courts over the last thirteen months and I think that will make the difference for him here.
Juan Ignacio Londero should also hold the mental advantage in this one having beaten Hugo Dellien in six of their seven previous matches. That includes beating him in their last two matches in 2018 and again I think it is the serve and the slightly stronger one that Londero possesses which makes the difference for him in those head to heads.
I think he can use the serve to edge out Dellien again in this Second Round match and I will look for him to do that by a margin that covers this handicap.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.48 Units (50 Units Staked, + 4.96% Yield)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.48 Units (50 Units Staked, + 4.96% Yield)
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