Super Bowl LIII NFL Picks 2019 (February 3rd)

Super Bowl LIII- New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams

We could have got a very different Super Bowl if the officials in the NFC Championship Game had an idea on how to enforce the rules which cost the New Orleans Saints to ice the game against the Los Angeles Rams before being beaten in Overtime. The Kansas City Chiefs also came very close to knocking off the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game with the key moment being Dee Ford lining up offside in a play that ended with a Tom Brady pick that would have won the game for the Chiefs.

Instead the Patriots and the Rams got the ball back in both cases and were able to go on and win in Overtime to set up this Super Bowl.

Let's begin with this- I don't like the New England Patriots, which isn't a surprise considering I am a Miami Dolphins fan, while I am very bored of seeing this team find their way into the Super Bowl. This is the third year in a row that the Patriots are representing the AFC and they are 1-1 in the last couple of years, while the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick connection have made it through to a ninth Super Bowl which began with a win over the Rams in 2001.

On that day the Patriots were the underdog against the 'Greatest Show on Turf' but the win for New England began a dynasty in Boston while the Rams suffered through some miserable years. They've moved to Los Angeles since that 2001 game and the Rams are now looking like a team on the up with Head Coach Sean McVay receiving a lot of plaudits for the work done from an Offensive point of view.

Los Angeles have come through a tough path to make the Super Bowl with the win in New Orleans very impressive. They have a strong roster, but the Rams have to make sure they are not predictable on both sides of the ball. You know Belichick is going to have schemed things in a way to try and take away not only weapons from the Los Angeles Rams, but he is going to want to make sure they are not able to open up the play-action which has been a key for them.

CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley are both expected to earn a lot of touches in this game and they are going to be facing a New England Defensive Line that has shown improvement in each passing week of the season. The Patriots have been dominant in the Play Offs having held both the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs to 41 yards or fewer and they have given up those yards at 2.7 yards per carry.

It is going to be important for New England to be stout up front again as it will disrupt a lot of what the Rams want to do. McVay has proven to be someone who does want to make big plays out of the play-action, but restricting the Rams on the ground will perhaps make them a little predictable. Los Angeles can try and open things up by using Gurley as a pass catcher on first and second Downs and then pound the ball against the Patriots but it does feel like an important battle in the trenches.

Forcing teams into obvious passing situations has seen the New England Secondary also vastly improve their play. It should be no surprise after seeing this for many a season, but Bill Belichick has taken young players and moulded them into valuable starters and doing it in a way where he can replace them and bring someone else in to do a stellar job like the Patriots have been doing once again down the stretch.

The pass rush has come alive for the Patriots, but Jared Goff is someone who has shown he can get the ball out of his hands quick enough. However the biggest benefit for the young Quarter Back is having his Head Coach essentially decipher Defenses for him at the line and also being protected by a strong Offensive Line which will give him enough time to make his plays through the air.

That should mean Los Angeles are able to have success throwing the ball, but much depends on the run and the exact same thing can be said for the New England Patriots.

For all the points scored by the New England Patriots and for all the credit that deserves to be given to Quarter Back Tom Brady it has to be noted that his has thrown just two Touchdown passes in the Play Offs. That is down to the Patriots going back to a power running play calling and Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White have all had successes with the ball in their hands.

All three Running Backs are going to have their opportunities in this game and over the course of the season this would have been the right play against the Los Angeles Rams. The Defensive Line have some top names on it, but the Rams had not been able to stop the run, but that has changed in the Play Offs as they have held the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints to 2.3 yards per carry.

Containing the likes of Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will set Los Angeles up to be very confident in stopping the Patriots and once again the trenches are going to be a key for the two teams. If the Rams can stop the run they will believe the front four can put a lot of pressure on Brady when he steps back to throw and that has been the successful formula to knock this Quarter Back off his game in the post-season.

Aaron Donald could create huge match up problems right up front and getting into Brady's face may lead to some errant throws and stalled drives.

You would still think the Patriots can move the chains with the way they can scheme mismatches against what may be a pretty predictable base Defense run by Wade Phillips.

The Rams Secondary have not been able to stop teams, but they are playing a 'bend, don't break' system and it may need New England to play out some long drives to get into a position to produce points. What that does is suggest this could be a game that is shortened by the the two teams having long, time consuming drives with both looking to run the ball and create short passes for their Quarter Back which keeps the clock running.

In recent years the Super Bowl has been a high-scoring game and especially higher than the layers have anticipated, while the underdog has been the team to back. However I think this could be far too many points in a game where these two teams may have long drives to score points and barring a number of short field turnovers I do think we could see an 'under' in this game.

I considered backing the underdog in this one with my lean towards the Los Angeles Rams, but I do think going with the total points line is the best play in this Super Bowl.

It could be another close game as we have tended to see in the majority of Super Bowls played recently and Overtime would be a killer for my selection.


But even with that in mind I am going to play the 'under' in this one.

MY PICK: New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams Under 55.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)