Tennis Picks 2019 (February 8th)

After a pretty good start to the week Thursday proved to be a more difficult time for the Tennis Picks.

On Friday all three ATP events move onto their Quarter Final matches scheduled.

The ATP Cordoba tournament is still concluding the Second Round matches while I am writing this post and that means I will add any Picks from that tournament to this thread on Friday.

I will also update the weekly totals at that time once all of the matches from the Thursday selections have been put into the books.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: On first glance I was a touch surprised that the layers had a similar number to the one I had set for this Quarter Final match in Montpellier. I was hoping that Filip Krajinovic's two wins here would have perhaps swayed them to give him a bit more a chance to upset Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player has the bigger name and so it is perhaps less than surprising than I first imagined.

Either way this is the number I was happy to back Berdych at as he continues his return to the Tour following an injury-hit 2018 which has seen him slip down the World Rankings. There is a chance his current Ranking could take another decline over the next couple of months if Berdych is not able to settle back onto the Tour as he likes, but so far 2019 has seen playing some of his better tennis and his run here will help.

Tomas Berdych is a comfortable player on the indoor hard courts, but he will be looking to get a little more out of his serve. So far in this tournament he has held at just over 81% of his service games and his overall service numbers are some way down on what he has been producing on the hard courts in 2019.

However Berdych has been backed up by some strong returning and he is going to need that aspect of his game working to the best possible level. In this Quarter Final Berdych is facing an opponent who has yet to have his serve broken, but Filip Krajinovic has generally not been able to find the level he produced against David Goffin on a consistent basis.

In the last couple of years Krajinovic has only held less than 80% of his service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked in the top 100 of the World Rankings. That part of his game should be challenged by Berdych in his form in this tournament as well as how he has been able to return on the hard courts in the last couple of years. He has found a way to break at around the 28% mark and I do think Berdych will be able to find the majority of break points in this one.

Filip Krajinovic is clearly enjoying the tournament here, but I think Berdych will be able to find a break more than him in each of the first two sets played and he can cover the spread in this one.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The last Quarter Final to be played in Montpellier on Friday is the all-French battle between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jeremy Chardy. The fans will be looking forward to this match as Tsonga is the latest veteran making his way back from an injury that ended his 2018 season much earlier than he wanted.

He is a very popular figure around the world and Tsonga particularly enjoys playing on the indoor hard courts in France. Some of his best results have been in these conditions and Tsonga has looked very good coming through the draw after dropping the first set he played in the First Round.

Jeremy Chardy will have his support being a home player too and he can be a very dangerous customer when at his very best. It is hard to get a read of his form though as Chardy has been able to beat two players Ranked outside the top 100 to reach this Quarter Final and this is the first significant test he will have faced in this tournament.

Chardy has opened 2019 with some strong serving numbers on the hard courts, but a weakness of his game has long been the returning side of things. That hasn't been a problem for Chardy against overmatched opponents in this tournament, but there has been a decline of his returning numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the last few years.

No one will ever confuse Tsonga with being a top returner on the Tour, but he can put opponents under immense pressure when he is serving at the top of his game. That is what he will be looking to do and then hoping it sees Chardy break down and in their head to head matches in the past that has been the case.

It has been very difficult for Chardy to get anything out of the Tsonga serve in their previous matches. In fact Chardy has only broken the Tsonga serve once in four previous matches against him, but he has produced at least one service game which has led to a break for Tsonga against him in three out of four of those matches.

The serving statistics and the superior Tsonga numbers should set him up for a win in this one too and I will back him to cover the spread with a single break of serve arguably enough to do that.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.88 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12% Yield)