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Friday 1 February 2019

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 2-4)

There is a quick turnaround in the Premier League after a full set of fixtures was played on Tuesday and Wednesday and another round of games are set to be played over this weekend.

Both Everton and Manchester City are playing twice over the next few days with a game that was scheduled for the end of the month being pushed forward as Manchester City are playing in the League Cup Final. With the team progressing in the Champions League and FA Cup there is a real fixture pile up developing for Manchester City who lost ground on Liverpool in the race for the Premier League title, but only by a point which is a huge bonus for the defending Champions with most expecting Liverpool to have opened up a bigger advantage.

They can't afford to drop too many more points between now and the end of the season and the title race will be back in focus on Sunday and Monday.


It is the teams at the bottom of the table who will take the limelight on Saturday with a couple of very important games being played over the course of the day. Huddersfield Town look gone, but Fulham have given themselves hope out of the 4-2 win over Brighton and Cardiff City have an important home game this weekend against Bournemouth.


So how did the Fantasy choices go? It was a mixed bag to say the least.

The good? Picking Paul Pogba and Victor Lindelof from the Manchester United game as both scored in the 2-2 draw with Burnley, while Aleksander Mitrovic, Raul Jimenez, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all produced big games as my 'Fantasy Star'.

The bad? Picking two players from Chelsea to be the stand out in the Bournemouth game, and ignoring highlighting Sergio Aguero.

The downright ugly? Lucas Digne! Not only did he not start, but he came on and was promptly sent off in Everton's 0-1 win at Huddersfield Town.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: There was a full midweek round of Premier League fixtures and it was a couple of days filled with upsets as only two of the top six won.

One of those failed to win because Newcastle United came from behind to beat Manchester City, but Tottenham Hotspur made sure their top four ambitions remained on track by doing the same in a 2-1 win over Watford on Wednesday.

Both teams are missing some key players and the squads will remain stretched when they meet each other in the first of the Premier League games to be played over a three day period this weekend. The television cameras will be in the Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United look to justify weakened teams played in the FA Cup Fourth Round by winning back to back Premier League games to round off the week.

Tottenham Hotspur will have the majority of play, but they have not been at their best in recent weeks. Defensively they have been struggling and I think this Newcastle United team can cause problems having scored at Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea in the Premier League this season.

Ultimately they are still a team that is capable of making mistakes at the back and keeping clean sheets against the top teams has been beyond them too. Tottenham Hotspur have been vulnerable and don't have the same threat going forward without Harry Kane and Dele Alli, but they are still creating a host of chances and I think that will be the key for them.

With that in mind I give the slight edge to Tottenham Hotspur, but I do think Newcastle United can play their part here. Spurs did beat Newcastle United at home in the League for the first time in four attempts having lost the previous 3, and while I think they can make it two in a row it might be in a fixture where both teams hit the net first.

Backing both teams to score in a game that Tottenham Hotspur edge has got to be worth a small interest this weekend.

Fantasy Star: Fernando Llorente- huge goal to win the game on Wednesday and the veteran Spaniard could be the key for the home team again.

Alternative: Christian Eriksen- I picked him to be the Fantasy player of the game against Watford. It didn't quite happen but the playmaker was a big influence in the fixture.


Brighton v Watford Pick: Both teams had leads in their last Premier League game during the week but both Brighton and Watford had to settle for away losses. Neither manager will be too happy with the manner in which those losses occurred, but there isn't much time to worry about that now as they look to get the players back on track this weekend.

On paper it may not be the most appealing game in the Premier League during this round of fixtures, but Brighton and Watford could produce a fair few goals when they meet.

Recent fixtures have not really followed that, but this season both Brighton and Watford look capable of scoring more goals and neither has looked watertight defensively.

Brighton have been better at home, but they have not been as productive in front of goal as they would have liked which puts me off a little bit. Only once in their last 10 home games in all competitions have Brighton managed to score more than one goal and that has to be a concern if you are going to back goals being scored in this fixture.

Watford have been better and had scored plenty of away goals before the 2-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur. Prior to that they had scored at least twice in 6 away games in all competitions and you do feel they are the team more likely to hit the net a couple of times in this one.

It is a tight game and I can see either team winning, but the goals are with Watford and they can become only the third team from the last 10 visitors who leave here with a win. Backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go here with that returning the stake in the event of a draw, but it is a close game to call and I lean towards Watford because of the goals they have had in their side on their travels and they can do enough to secure the three points here.

Fantasy Star: Jose Holebas- Watford share out their goals and picking a star is not easy. However Jose Holebas can be good for an assist and also potentially earns a clean sheet.

Alternative: Glenn Murray- Brighton need a spark and the veteran provided that with two goals at Fulham. They were on the wrong end of a 4-2 loss though and will need more from Murray here.


Burnley v Southampton Pick: Two teams on the edge of the relegation zone in the Premier League meet on Saturday, but the recent performances and results earned by Burnley and Southampton is a key reason they are both outside of the bottom three.

Burnley have earned 11 points from the last 15 available in the League, while Southampton have picked up 8 points in that time and that is telling when both clubs are 4 points clear of Cardiff City in 18th place.

You have to credit Ralph Hasenhuttl for turning around Southampton after the struggles under Mark Hughes, and 2 wins from their last 3 away Premier League games has to be respected. However they won't have the counter attacking opportunities that Huddersfield Town and Leicester City have offered up because Burnley have gone back to basics and that is set up to be hard to beat and taking the opportunities when they come their way through set pieces and forcing mistakes from opponents.

Burnley have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at home and they were leading 0-2 at Old Trafford on Tuesday which shows a team playing with a lot of confidence. They have a strong recent home record against Southampton and this is a fixture which could see one goal decide things in favour of one or the other.

My lean is with the home team who look to be in slightly more confident form and a bit more secure with the system and formation Sean Dyche is likely to employ. That could make all the difference in a tight game and I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap that will return the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: James Tarkowski- Burnley have gone back to basics which means a threat from set pieces and also clean sheet chances.

Alternative: Danny Ings- Ralph Hasenhuttl is not convinced about Charlie Austin which will leave Ings leading the line. Southampton been strong away from home under their Austrian manager.


Chelsea v Huddersfield Town Pick: Any time one of the big clubs is beaten in the manner that Chelsea were at Bournemouth on Wednesday there are going to be some big questions to answer for them.

Losing is one thing, but losing 4-0 at capitulating in the second half like Chelsea did angered the fans and frustrated Maurizio Sarri who looks to be under intense pressure as manager of the club. He has been supported with the signing of Gonzalo Higuain so I don't think there will be a change in the manager's office just yet, but Sarri needs to find a way to get the players onboard with what he is trying to do.

The Italian admitted himself that he wasn't sure how he could motivate the players and a long meeting with them following the defeat to Bournemouth ended with Sarri heading back to London on his own.

Changes will likely be made for this one to try and freshen up the selection and get a spark going, while Chelsea couldn't really have picked a better opponent.

For all the struggles Chelsea are having, Huddersfield Town have been in miserable form and another defeat on Tuesday leaves them firmly rooted to the bottom of the Premier League. Relegation looks inevitable for them now and a lack of goals makes it hard to trust Huddersfield Town to keep any game truly competitive.

In saying that I do have to note that Huddersfield Town have rarely been blown away in recent weeks and they could be appealing to back with the start on the Asian Handicap in this one. Last season they earned a surprise draw at Stamford Bridge, and Huddersfield Town have not been beaten heavily too often.

With the troubles in the home team, Huddersfield Town may find a way to keep this one close and scoring once could be all it takes to do that. Realistically it is hard to see anything but a Chelsea win, but they might be happy to head off with any kind of win and at the moment there is a bit of a negative feeling at Stamford Bridge.

Again I will say it is hard to trust a Huddersfield Town that may be more like a mid-table Championship team than a Premier League one, but having the full two goal start on the Asian Handicap is worth an interest.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- is always the key for Chelsea who should have all the play in this one.

Alternative: N'Golo Kante- his position in the team is being questioned by those outside of Chelsea, but the midfielder could be a cheap option who gets forward and can get amongst the goals.


Crystal Palace v Fulham Pick: This is a huge game for both Crystal Palace and Fulham as the latter make the relatively short trip to Selhurst Park on Saturday with both clubs inside the bottom six of the Premier League table.

Crystal Palace have signed Michy Batshuayi prior to the close of the transfer deadline and they will be hoping for an immediate payback from the on loan Chelsea striker. Scoring goals has been a real problem for Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, while the absence of Wilfried Zaha through suspension takes away their best player for this fixture.

It puts pressure on the other players in the final third to produce, but Christian Benteke is back and Andros Townsend has been in good form. Crystal Palace are also playing a Fulham team who have been very poor defensively away from home, although Claudio Ranieri's men come into this one off a confidence boosting 4-2 win over Brighton.

The manner of the win and coming from 0-2 down will certainly give the players more belief, but Fulham have to find the right balance away from home. They have conceded 30 goals in their 12 away League games, but Fulham have only scored 8 times in those games which is not the form that will take a club out of the bottom three.

However the performance against Brighton will give them encouragement in a fixture which could produce three or more goals on Saturday. Crystal Palace home games have not featured a lot of goals, but Fulham have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games and there is an onus on the away team to try and win this game if the chances are there.

That could leave spaces for Crystal Palace too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between these clubs.

Fantasy Star: Aleksander Mitrovic- I am not sure Fulham can make it back to back wins, but Mitrovic is going to be a handful for the Crystal Palace defenders.

Alternative: Michy Batshuayi- no Wilfried Zaha means on loan Michy Batshuayi can get a chance for his new club and he may be ready to remind the Premier League why Chelsea signed him in the first place.


Everton v Wolves Pick: It will be a cold weekend throughout the United Kingdom and Liverpool is going to be no different, but Everton and Wolves have the capabilities of warming up the crowd with an entertaining game in the offing.

Everton have been adventurous going forward under Marco Silva, but that should leave the counter attack open to a Wolves team who can score goals on their travels. The two teams look to match up well with each other in that regard and I do think we are going to see goals in this one, something the layers are not so convinced about.

The home team may not be putting a lot of wins on the board, but they have scored at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 games at Goodison Park. The injury to Leighton Baines and suspension of Lucas Digne is going to knock the balance a little bit for the home team, but Everton will still look to get forward and cause problems for a Wolves team who have conceded at least once in 8 away games in a row in all competitions.

However Wolves have also scored in 6 of their last 7 away from home and scored at least twice in 3 of their last 5. Everton did keep a clean sheet against Bournemouth here last time out, but prior to that they had conceded in 5 straight home games and even The Cherries will be wondering how they didn't trouble the scoreboard.

Both teams scoring in this one looks certain to be the case, but I will go a bit further and look for the attacking intent of the managers to help one of these teams score at least one more goal than that. At odds against I will back at least three goals to be shared out between two teams who are back in action during the week, but who are fighting it out to hold onto 7th place in the Premier League table.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- the Mexican is in great form and he should have chances against a vulnerable Everton defence.

Alternative: Richarlison- scored in back to back games and Everton look to get forward a lot of the time at home where they have scored plenty of goals over the last two months.


Cardiff City v Bournemouth Pick: The last Premier League game on Saturday will have the television cameras in town, but no one could have expected the emotion that is going to be surrounding this game.

Live games were picked back in December, but since then Emiliano Sala's plane disappeared over the English Channel just days after signing for Cardiff City from Nantes. On Tuesday the players had to play their first game since that tragedy, but this is the first game at the Cardiff City Stadium and it will be difficult for everyone to deal with the situation.

Neil Warnock said prior to the Arsenal game that he considered resigning as manager of Cardiff City in what had been his most difficult week in Football at any point in his career. The players did respond with a big effort against Arsenal, but it isn't going to be easy to raise their levels again with the crowd likely going to be feeling emotional and that filtering down to the field.

Cardiff City need the points desperately too which only increases the tension around this fixture and Bournemouth come in after a thumping 4-0 win over Chelsea which has to give them huge confidence.

The Cherries have not been as effective away from home in recent weeks though and they have lost 7 straight away games in all competitions. The potential absence of David Brooks to add to Callum Wilson does take away some of the Bournemouth threat going forward and Cardiff City have been much better at home than on their travels.

It won't be easy for Cardiff City with the emotions around this fixture, but I do think they can earn a result here which keeps their bid to avoid the drop going in the right way. Goals are a problem for Cardiff City, but they played well enough against Arsenal to believe they can give Bournemouth problems and I will look for the home team to at least avoid a defeat against a Bournemouth team who have not been as strong on their travels.

The 4-0 win over Chelsea may just make Bournemouth a touch overrated for this fixture as the favourite to win and I will oppose them.

Fantasy Star: Oumar Niasse- the on loan striker will lead the line for Cardiff City and he should have chances in this one.

Alternative: Joshua King- got two goals on Wednesday in the 4-0 win over Bournemouth and the main striker and source of creativity with Callum Wilson out and David Brooks doubtful.


Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: The first live game from the Premier League on Sunday comes from the King Power Stadium and this could be a very enjoyable game for the neutrals to enjoy.

Manchester United have been in a very strong run of form, but they have yet to really convince defensively which will always give teams a chance against them. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is playing an attacking brand of football and that could be exactly what Leicester City will be hoping for as they try and spring out and hit Manchester United on the counter attack with the pace they have in the forward areas.

There is no doubting that Leicester City have picked up their levels when they have played the top six clubs in the Premier League this season. They have already beaten Manchester City here and also won at Chelsea and drew at Anfield during the week while creating enough chances to potentially win that game.

The Foxes are a team that can be vulnerable defensively as they perhaps try to soak up too much pressure and I would expect Manchester United to create chances. With Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba likely to be passed fit, Manchester United have some real options in the final third and the Solskjaer tactics have enabled more men to get into the box when United have gone forward.

With that in mind I would expect Manchester United to score here, but Leicester City can play their part in this fixture too and this should be a game that features at least three goals. 5 of the last 6 between these clubs have ended with three or more goals shared out, while 4 of the last 5 hosted by Leicester City have also ended that way.

The single exception proved to be a 1-1 draw and that could be the one scoreline that scuppers the selection. However both Leicester City and Manchester United look like teams that will take chances to win this game and that could leave the fixture as an open one throughout which leads to three or more goals shared out.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- didn't score on Tuesday, but still a huge threat for Manchester United and in great form.

Alternative: James Maddison- should have scored at Anfield and should be able to get into a position to cause United problems on the counter attack.


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: Pep Guardiola will be expecting a big reaction from his players after the defeat to Newcastle United on Tuesday, although Manchester City did lose back to back Premier League games in December.

In private Guardiola had to be fearing the Premier League title defence was going to be all but over after the defeat and with Liverpool hosting Leicester City, but the leaders failed to capitalise fully. That should inspire Manchester City to get back on track and try and put the pressure on Liverpool over the next eight days when they have three League games compared with Liverpool's two.

First up for Manchester City is perhaps the 'easiest' of the three games to come, but they can't afford to be complacent against Arsenal on Sunday.

Manchester City have beaten them the last 4 times they have played each other and all of those wins have come by at least two goal margins. The defensive problems Arsenal are having look much clearer when they are playing away from the Emirates Stadium and this is not a team who will sit back and look to defend in numbers which should mean more spaces for Manchester City to exploit.

Arsenal are the kind of team who will give it a go here and that could put Manchester City under some pressure, but they have not looked strong enough to compete with the best teams. Liverpool crushed Arsenal at Anfield in December and Manchester City look to have the perfect system to beat The Gunners.

The defensive problems should be exploited and I think Manchester City will prove too good on the day. Pep Guardiola has options so I do think there could be some rotation to the squad, but I don't think that is a big problem for Manchester City who should be able to win this game by a comfortable margin on the day.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- scored on Tuesday and has a strong record against Arsenal and I expect him to get the start ahead of Gabriel Jesus.

Alternative: Raheem Sterling- could have got a goal at St James' Park and is 'due'.


West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend takes place on Monday night as Liverpool make the trip to East London to take on a West Ham United team they have dominated in the last couple of years.

It is quite a staggering statistic to think Liverpool have scored four goals in their last 4 games against West Ham United which includes 2 visits to the London Stadium.

Doing the same here might not be easy if Liverpool are feeling the pressure of the title race as was perhaps the case in the 1-1 draw with Leicester City on Wednesday. That came after a tough, drawn out win over Crystal Palace at Anfield and I do feel that playing away from home may benefit Liverpool if the fans expectations are weighing them down.

This is not an easy ground to visit these days with West Ham United much improved under Manuel Pellegrini, but The Hammers are a hard team to predict. They have been downright awful in 3 straight losses at Bournemouth, AFC Wimbledon and Wolves, but all of those games have been away from home and West Ham United have lost 1 of their last 6 fixtures at the London Stadium in all competitions.

Manuel Pellegrini has found a formula that has seen West Ham United score plenty of goals at home in recent games, but I am a little concerned by the potential absence of the likes of Samir Nasri and especially Marko Arnautovic. If they were playing it could be the chance to oppose Liverpool for a fourth straight Premier League game, but it is clear from the recent results that Liverpool have enjoyed playing against West Ham United.

With a few more days to get ready for this one, Liverpool should prove to be too strong and just keep their noses in front of Manchester City. They may not have won a game by more than a single goal margin since the end of December, but Liverpool have dominated West Ham United and the home team's last couple of League defeats here have been 0-4 to Manchester City and 0-2 to Wolves.

I will look to Liverpool covering this Asian Handicap as they get back to winning ways.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- when he goes without a goal for one game you know he will be itching to get on the scoreboard this time. On penalties and has four goals in three games against West Ham United for Liverpool.

Alternative: Virgil Van Dijk- Liverpool have looked a little vulnerable defensively so they may go back to basics with the big Dutchman a key to that.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Win & BTTS @ 3.40 Bet Fred
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Huddersfield Town + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.65 Bet Victor
Crystal Palace-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Everton-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook
Cardiff City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Leicester City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred

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