Tennis Picks 2019 (February 16th)

It might have been a busy day on Friday around the four tournaments that are being played this week, but I could only find a couple of matches that I felt comfortable in.

That wasn't a bad decision as both Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils won their Quarter Final matches in Rotterdam without dropping a set and that continues what should be another winning week to put into the books. There are still two days of Tennis to be played to conclude the week and I have no intention of giving anything back after a strong week.

You can see the Picks from the matches scheduled for Saturday below.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: In the last couple of weeks Daniil Medvedev has been a very strong player to back and he has worked out for me with a number of winning selections behind the young Russian. This isn't only a two week hot streak as Medvedev has been in strong form throughout the first six weeks of the 2019 season which has seen him play in two Finals already and looking to make a third this week.

He was a dominant winner over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Quarter Final and Medvedev has deserved to make his way through the Rotterdam draw after winning the title in Sofia. Unlike some other players, Medvedev has not really had an easy path through the last couple of weeks which underlines how well he is playing.

The numbers continue to back that up as Medvedev is looking after serve effectively, while the returning numbers are very strong. In the last week Medvedev has been even stronger on the return than he has been in 2019 overall, and that makes it very dangerous for opponents to face Medvedev when he is seeing the ball like a beach ball at the moment.

So far in Rotterdam Medvedev has broken at just under 38% of the games he has been returning and that is very impressive on the indoor hard courts. Gael Monfils will feel he can challenge Medvedev with the way he has been serving this week, but the overall hold percentage is down to 81% compared with his 84% hold percentage for 2019 on the hard courts.

The Frenchman has responded with some very strong returning to make up for the service slips, but this is a step up from the last two Rounds. It is also the second time in two weeks that Monfils and Medvedev are playing each other and it was Medvedev who I picked to win their match in Sofia and I think he can frank that form as he did when beating Tsonga for the second time in 2019 on Friday.

Daniil Medvedev dominated the return of serve in Sofia and as well as Monfils is playing this week, Medvedev is playing a little better. I think he can use the returning powers he has produced for the season to get the better of Monfils in this one and I think he edges him out with a tough win here and I think Medvedev covers against Monfils again.

He is being asked to cover one more game than he was last week in Sofia, but Medvedev is playing well enough to do that.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: The two tournaments being played in the Middle East in Doha and Dubai on the WTA Tour do bring in some of the very best players on the Tour to these events. With that in mind the players who reach the Final at the these tournaments tend to have come through some tough matches and that is the case for Elise Mertens and Simona Halep who play each other for the title on Saturday.

Both players have had a couple of tough wins and both were forced to win a deciding set in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two matches Simona Halep had to invest more emotional exertions to turn her Semi Final against Elina Svitolina back in her favour having won the final five games in a row to narrowly edge out the Ukrainian.

Elise Mertens did drop the second set in her win over Angelique Kerber, but she won the final set 6-1. However the potential fatigue factor is balanced out by Halep having played the first Semi Final and the Romanian has dominated Mertens in their two previous matches, although both have come on Halep's favoured clay courts.

The feeling in this one is that both players are going to be heavily reliant on their strong returns of serve to put themselves in a position to win the title. Neither has a dominant serve and both Halep and Mertens have seen that side of their game being attacked and I do think the way the two players have been returning will see a number of break points in this one.

In this tournament the edge has to be given to Mertens for the way she has been returning, but she has been a little fortunate at times as opponents have not taken the chances they have created. She can't expect Halep to be that generous considering the former World Number 1 has won 47% of return points played this week and she has also dominated the Mertens serve by winning 57% of points against it in the two matches between these players.

Elise Mertens has been returning very well too which will give her a chance to cover this number of games in this Final. However I think the match up with Halep is yet to be one that Mertens enjoys and her overall hard court numbers have been a little better than average in the last couple of years.

This week still feels like an outlier in terms of her overall hard court ability and I think Halep can break down the Mertens game and cover this number too.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-7, + 15.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 34.39% Yield)