Tennis Picks 2019 (February 27th)

After a pretty poor Monday, Tuesday proved to be a much better day at the time of writing although two Picks from the tournament in Acapulco have still to be completed.

If both of those can return as winners it will be a very good start to the week, but I will update the weekly record on Wednesday once the full set of Tuesday selections are in the books.


As is the case with the beginning of this week, I am going to put up my selections from the ATP Dubai and ATP Sao Paulo tournaments below and I will add anything from Acapulco once those markets have been formed through the evening.


Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: Both of these players have reached the Second Round in Dubai thanks to upset wins in the First Round and you have to think both are feeling very confident they can make the Quarter Final from this match.

Denis Kudla has really been having a hard time to open 2019, but he showed some real resilience to come back from a set down to beat Matteo Berrettini. In some ways Kudla was a little fortunate, but it will be a confidence boosting win for a player who had been 2-6 in 2019 before that First Round match and had dropped the first set by a comfortable margin.

You have to credit a player who is able to stay in a match through tough times, but Kudla could be facing more of those against the very talented Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis.

One of the criticisms of Berankis' career is that he has not found the consistency to be playing at this level on a regular basis, but the win over Daniil Medvedev in the First Round shows what he is capable of. That comes after winning two matches in the Qualifiers and Berankis has won a Challenger event earlier this season too.

Berankis has been playing well on the hard courts with an 83% hold percentage so far, but the wins have been racking up thanks to a very strong return game. In his fourteen matches in 2019 on this surface, Berankis has broken at just under 30% of the time and he should be able to get into the Kudla service games with the way the American has been playing.

A win in the First Round will help, but Kudla is still holding at 75% on the hard courts and struggling to recover if he does fall behind. He did manage that against Matteo Berrettini, but Kudla has broken in 14% of the return games played on the hard courts in 2019 and I think Berankis can get the better of him like he did at Winston Salem last year.

These two players have met twice before on the hard courts and it is Berankis who has the better returning numbers. I think that will be the case on Wednesday in the Second Round match between them too and I will look for the Lithuanian to cover and reach the Quarter Final.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: It was perhaps a little closer than I would have liked, but Kei Nishikori was able to get the better of Benoit Paire and cover a big spread in the First Round and earn us a winner. I think you can stick with the same market in the Second Round especially now that Nishikori will be a little more familiar with the conditions in Dubai where he is making his debut this week.

As expected it was not always straight forward for Nishikori who found Paire in good form. Early in the match Nishikori had to save a huge amount of break points, but he begun to get stronger he moved through the second set and I think he should have the majority of the play in this one as soon as we get into rallies.

He will still have to respect Hubert Hurkacz whose serve has been a potent weapon for him on the hard courts and he has held at just a tick under 90% of the service games he has played on the surface. However it is easy to ignore the fact that the majority of the matches Hurkacz has played this season have come against players Ranked much lower than the one he will play in the Second Round and we have yet to see the Polish player really produce his best when facing some of the best players on the Tour.

Hurkacz has not won any of his six previous matches on the hard courts against players Ranked in the top 50. A couple of those matches have been fairly competitive but the others less so including a defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this season.

The numbers underline the problems for Hurkacz who has held just 60% of his service games in those six matches against the top 50 Ranked opponents. He has really struggled on the return of serve too and I think Kei Nishikori could be playing well enough to make enough balls back in play on the return of serve to wear down Hurkacz in this one.

Kei Nishikori's return game saw him break the Benoit Paire serve three times in the First Round and I think he can match that in this Second Round match. That will give him a chance to cover this number on the handicap and I think Nishikori can get the job done on Wednesday.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: The upset win over Milos Raonic has seen Jan-Lennard Struff move through to the Second Round in Dubai, but he will be the underdog again in this match against Marton Fucsovics.

In the last four years Struff has been a competent server on the hard courts, but he is put under pressure by an average return game. It means the German will go into many matches he plays knowing he can't afford to have a slip on the serve if he is going to work his way into a winning position, but knowing you can't drop serve can really affect a player at key times of a match.

The chances might be a little better to recover against Fucsovics who has been holding serve at just under 80% of the games played on the hard courts in 2019. However he has still put a number of wins on the board because of what looks to be a return game significantly superior to the one that Struff will bring to the court.

I also have to say that Fucsovics has seen his overall numbers dented by some one-sided losses to the elite players on the Tour, namely those inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Hungarian is actually 5-0 on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50 and in those matches Fucsovics has seen his hold percentage move from 79% overall in 2019 to 86% when those matches have been against the players lower down the Rankings.

At the same time the return of serve has remained strong and Fucsovics should be well rested for this one and I do think he can edge out Struff in this Second Round match.

You have to acknowledge how well Struff can serve which makes this a tougher spread to cover than you may think. However I think Fucsovics is returning the ball well enough to believe he can find a couple of breaks of serve during the course of this match and it may be enough for him to cover.

MY PICKS: Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Peter Gojowczyk + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 2.82 Units (30 Units Staked, + 9.40% Yield)