Tennis Picks 2019 (February 15th)

Thursday was not a brilliant day and the Picks are set for a losing day at the time of writing. I will update the weekly totals on Friday when I will also add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires and ATP New York Quarter Final matches as those markets will be put together during the night.

At least the markets in the WTA Doha and ATP Rotterdam tournaments have been set and you can read my selections from those events below.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: After a miserable start to the 2019 season there won't have been too many rushing to back Damir Dzumhur to put a strong run together at the ATP Rotterdam event. He has previously played well here, but the 0-3 start to the season on the hard courts and a First Round match against Australian Open Semi Finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas would have likely been where most would have expected Dzumhur's tournament to end.

Instead he has been able to work his way through a couple of matches and Dzumhur is in good form so far this week which suggests he can give Gael Monfils a real test. One of the keys to his performances this week has been how well Dzumhur has been able to get into return games in the conditions in Rotterdam and that is going to be important if he is going to upset Monfils.

That won't be easy as Monfils has also been playing well and has the kind of serve that can offer up a few more cheap points than Dzumhur's own serve can. While they won a similar percentage of points behind serve in this tournament, Monfils has held serve at a slightly better rate as that bigger serve also gives him a chance to get out of awkward spots facing break points with a little more effectiveness than Dzumhur.

Gael Monfils has been returning well in Rotterdam too and I do think he can get the better of Dzumhur simply because I am expecting the Frenchman to earn a few more break points over the course of the match. The hard work that Dzumhur puts into his tennis will mean he will be competitive, but he is going to have to be a lot better than when these players met at the Australian Open last month.

On that occasion Monfils held 90% of the service games he played compared with Dzumhur's 27% number. I would be very surprised if Dzumhur's form falls off a cliff in Rotterdam and he can barely hold serve in this Quarter Final, but I do think Monfils holds the aces in this match and he can win and cover the number.

Having a day of rest between matches should mean Monfils is fresh and ready to go this weekend in a bid to take home a big title.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Both Daniil Medvedev and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won titles on the indoor hard courts last week and they have used the momentum earned to put a couple of wins on the board in Rotterdam. Confidence can't be much higher for both players ahead of this match, but I think Medvedev has a chance to frank his win over Tsonga from earlier this season.

You can't take anything away from Tsonga having won the title in Montpellier and looking very comfortable around the court, but his run of wins have not exactly come against elite players on the Tour. The Frenchman has put together seven wins in a row but none of those wins have come against an opponent Ranked inside the top 30.

The serve has been a key to Tsonga's wins and he has yet to be broken in Rotterdam where he has had considerable success in previous visits to this tournament. However in this match he faces a young opponent whose return of serve has been the reason he has been able to produce some very strong wins throughout 2019 and also seen him challenge the likes of Kei Nishikori and Novak Djokovic on the hard courts.

It is the Medvedev return that has been important for him this week having won 45.5% of points against the opponent's serve and that despite facing two big serving players in Jeremy Chardy and Fernando Verdasco. The Russian has created at least ten break points in both matches played this week and he might be able to offer some resistance to Tsonga's big serve that the latter has not been faced with over the last ten days.

Daniil Medvedev has been serving very well throughout the first six weeks of the season and he has continued that here. All credit has to be given to Tsonga for his returning numbers in this tournament, but he is overachieving and maintaining a 33% break percentage against the Medvedev serve is very unlikely.

When they met in Brisbane in January Medvedev held 90% of his service games against Tsonga and had a lot of success returning on that day. I think this match will be closer than the 7-6, 6-2 win that Medvedev produced that day, but I think this is the toughest match Tsonga has played since the Australian Open and the Medvedev form can see him edge to the victory in this good looking Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-7, + 12.40 Units (42 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)