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Tuesday 26 February 2019

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 26-27)

There are three rounds of Premier League Football matches to be played over a ten day period and that is exciting news for Fantasy Players with three GameWeeks to negotiate.

The last set of Fantasy Players identified were a mixed bag, but I hit a couple of small priced clean sheet players and also found three strikers at less than 6.4 million in the official Fantasy game that all scored in the last GameWeek. That is good news, but the quick turnaround means another look at those you may think about targeting as well as my thoughts on how the latest round of League games will develop.


Cardiff City v Everton Pick: The Premier League has a full midweek round to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday and there are some big points on the line at the top and bottom of the table.

Cardiff City will understand that and Neil Warnock must recognise the importance of the home form down the stretch if they are going to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. The 1-5 home defeat to Watford would have really hurt the players on Friday, but the mood would only have darkened when seeing Burnley, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace all earn priceless wins to move a little clearer of the bottom three.

Those results do put some pressure on Cardiff City to respond as they try to move clear of Southampton who are a point and one place behind in the relegation zone. The latter have a very winnable home game against Fulham to come on Wednesday so Cardiff City have a chance to at least attach some pressure to that fixture by beating an out of sorts Everton team.

Marco Silva won't be able to complain of any fatigue as Everton have not played for over two weeks and that will have given him a chance to help the players reset after a poor run of form. His team have been beaten in 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 away from home which makes Everton a vulnerable favourite at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Both teams have shown some weakness defensively in recent games though and I think that will make the two managers both confident they can oversee a victory. A draw isn't really an ideal result for either team so I do think we will see teams trying to get forward and win this game and I will be surprised if both teams are not able to find their way onto the scoreboard in this one.

The situation suggests neither will sit back and hope to take home a single point if we are in that stage going down the stretch too and games featuring Cardiff City and the better teams in the Division have tended to produce goals. Everton may not be considered one of those teams and I was tempted to oppose them on the Asian Handicap but have been put off by the way Cardiff City capitulated against Watford on Friday evening.

However I think we will see chances for goals in this one and my feeling is that there will be at least three goals shared out by the two teams in an important League fixture on Tuesday.

Fantasy Star: Sol Bamba- the focus has to be on a better defensive performance and Everton have been struggling for goals. Sol Bamba is a genuine threat from set pieces too.

Alternative: Richarlison- like last season Richarlison has just lost a bit of form in the last couple of months, but the big threat for an Everton team that have found goals hard to come by.


Huddersfield Town v Wolves Pick: It has not escaped my attention for a while that Huddersfield Town are going to be pretty big underdogs in every game they have left to play in the Premier League and that is the case again during the week.

You can't really imagine a team losing 14 of 15 games in all competitions and then seeing that run extend all the way through to the end of the season, but Huddersfield Town look short at both ends of the field. They don't earn too many clean sheets and they don't score enough goals and when you put both of those things together you are not going to win too many matches.

In fact you are going to need to do very well to even earn draws and that has been the case for Huddersfield Town. At home they have conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 7 games in the Premier League and Huddersfield Town have lost all 7 of those fixtures.

The Terriers do have a good recent record against Wolves and their last League win actually came against this opponent, but the latter look significantly improved now.

One concern in backing Wolves at odds on is that they are also guilty of perhaps not scoring as many goals as they should, while a strong defence doesn't keep as many clean sheets as they perhaps should too. That was my feeling when analysing their game at Bournemouth last Saturday, but Wolves created enough chances to win that game and I think they can be more clinical against an opponent lacking confidence.

Wolves are bringing in a healthy squad and they are a team that have scored in 7 of their last 8 away games in the Premier League. Draws at Fulham and Bournemouth are a concern when selecting them, but Huddersfield Town look someway short of even those teams and I think Wolves will find a way to break them down and earn an important three points.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- in a hot streak of form in front of goal and has to be the main threat for Wolves here.

Alternative: Diogo Jota- things have not quite broken for him, but Diogo Jota could be amongst the goals at the John Smith's Stadium with a bit more luck going his way.


Leicester City v Brighton Pick: I think the common assumption was that Claude Puel would likely be removed as Leicester City manager at the end of the season, but the 1-4 home loss to Crystal Palace on Saturday means the move was made much earlier than anticipated. On Sunday morning Puel was told he was sacked and it has come at a time when Leicester City may have to appoint an interim manager before going for one of the targets rumoured in the summer.

Turmoil at the King Power Stadium could be the right tonic for Brighton to take advantage of as they make their way to the East Midlands looking for a vital three points to take them away from the relegation drop zone. Results this past weekend have left Brighton 3 points clear of Southampton, but they have slipped to 16th place in the Premier League table and with some huge games coming up.

Putting a win on the board will give Brighton the confidence to take into those fixtures, but they may have hoped Leicester City had kept Claude Puel in charge for one more game.

The players at Leicester City were clearly not happy playing in the Puel system and my feeling is that we are going to seeing a response much like what Manchester United had when a disliked manager was removed. I don't anticipate Leicester City winning as many games as Manchester United have put together, but this is a squad that looks to be underachieving and I would not be surprised if they performed much better than they have been.

In saying that I do think Leicester City could have earned a lot more positive results over the last month with a bit more luck and better composure in the final third. The majority of those games were away from home though and I think this is the kind of fixture where the players can show the fans that they had been held back by the manager rather than underperforming themselves.

It is a difficult game to read with the uncertainty that comes from sacking a manager, but I am giving Leicester City the edge. After sacking Claudio Ranieri the players responded with a 3-1 win over Liverpool at home, while they were beaten in their first game after sacking Craig Shakespeare but then went unbeaten in 5 and won 4 of those games.

I am expecting a reaction from the home players here too and I think they may edge out a Brighton team who have not travelled well all season and who have lost 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games. Brighton have conceded at least two goals in 4 straight on their travels in the League and I will back Leicester City to earn the three points in this one.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- probably the most critical voice of Claude Puel in the dressing room and I can see Jamie Vardy producing a top game in a 'freer' system.

Alternative: James Maddison- should also be happier in a new system for Leicester City and plays in an advanced position to create chances and get on the end of those too.


Newcastle United v Burnley Pick: The television companies decided to shift their coverage from the expected Manchester City versus West Ham United game to this one between Newcastle United and Burnley because of the defending Champions playing in the League Cup Final on Sunday.

A few weeks ago that might have been a real disappointment for the neutrals hoping to tune in, but both Newcastle United and Burnley are off important home wins and playing with real confidence at the moment.

Both clubs will have targeted this fixture as a real chance to move away from the bottom three in the Premier League and I think it has the makings of a decent game as the managers have overseen a number of wins for both clubs. Newcastle United have won 3 in a row at home in the Premier League and scored at least twice in each win, while Burnley are unbeaten in 8 Premier League games and have won 5 of those to move clear of the relegation zone.

With the way both Newcastle United and Burnley have been approaching games I actually think there may be more attacking football on display than you would normally associate with Rafael Benitez and Sean Dyche. Both clubs have been scoring plenty of goals of late and used formations and personnel that do produce in the final third.

Picking a winner really isn't that easy and I am surprised Newcastle United are as short as they are to win this game. They have beaten Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town here in recent games which deserves respect, but Burnley have shown they are capable of picking up points from those around them and have they have avoided a defeat in their last two visits to St James' Park.

That is my feeling in this one too that Burnley will do just enough to avoid a defeat. They have gone back to the strengths of last season where they defended resolutely and produced some telling play in the final third to pick up results and the return of Tom Heaton in goal has proved to be a masterstroke for the club.

One goal could be all it takes to separate these clubs on the day, but Burnley have scored in 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games and I think that could be enough for them to at least avoid a defeat.

Fantasy Star: James Tarkowski- could need a big defensive effort for Burnley to get a result here and James Tarkowski is something of a leader for them in those positions.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- if anyone is going to break the Burnley resistance it could be the in-form Venezuelan.


Arsenal v Bournemouth Pick: The race for the top four looks like it could go down to the wire with Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea perhaps chasing down the one place behind Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

At the moment it is Arsenal who are in control of that Champions League spot, but they can't afford to drop points on Wednesday considering what is coming up next. After this League game Arsenal face Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium before hosting Manchester United around the Europa League Last 16 tie with Rennes and so this could be a pivotal few weeks for a club looking to return to the top table of European Football.

There should be a confidence in the Arsenal camp that they can at least put another three points on the board on Wednesday as they have won 7 in a row at home in the Premier League. In 6 of those wins they have scored two or more goals and Arsenal are facing a Bournemouth team they have a very good record against.

Add to that the fact that Bournemouth have conceded at least two goals in 8 straight away Premier League games and lost all of those and I can't see beyond an Arsenal win here.

Unai Emery's team have been a touch inconsistent from game to game, but they have maintained strong form at the Emirates Stadium and this is a team that will create plenty of chances here. They were not as clinical against Southampton as they would have liked once moving into a 2-0 lead, but Arsenal could have more joy in this one against this Bournemouth defence.

Since Bournemouth have been promoted to the Premier League Arsenal have beaten them by two or more goals in all 3 of the games at the Emirates Stadium. That feels the most likely outcome of this one too and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- seems to be the player Unai Emery trusts to lead the line at home and scored on Sunday. Should have had two in reality.

Alternative: Henrikh Mkhitaryan- also on the scoresheet on Sunday and a key player in the system employed by the manager. I expect Arsenal to be on the front foot in this one.


Southampton v Fulham Pick: We are certainly at that time of the season when the term 'relegation six pointer' will be used more often around the media, but there really isn't a better way to describe the Southampton versus Fulham match to be played in the Premier League on Wednesday.

For both clubs this fixture comes at a time when they have not been in the best form, but they can't make excuses for not performing as they could find themselves in a desperate spot come the end of March. After this fixture Southampton face Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur before going on a two week break thanks to the FA Cup Quarter Final matches scheduled for mid March, while Fulham follow up with fixtures against Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool and Manchester City to close out the next month.

With both clubs in the position they are in, failing to win this one will really increase the pressure on the players to earn points from very difficult games.

You have to say the game means more to Fulham who are already 8 points from safety and will be at least 10 points behind if they lose here. With just 30 points left to play for after this one and with those fixtures mentioned, Fulham could find themselves out of the Premier League in early April if they can't earn something here.

Southampton are also under pressure after back to back Premier League losses and it will feel like a much bigger game if Cardiff City were to beat Everton on Tuesday and be 4 points clear of The Saints at the end of the night. That does put pressure onto the players who are short of options in the final third and I think this is going to be a very interesting game.

The home team look short considering recent results, but it is hard to trust Fulham with a defence that can't keep clean sheets for love nor money. However Claudio Ranieri's men have caused some problems going the other way and I think this has the makings of a fixture that could be similar to the one when they met at Craven Cottage earlier this season.

On that day five goals were shared out in a topsy-turvy fixture and I think these two teams know a draw doesn't do a lot for them. I would expect the managers to take chances with that in mind and Fulham may be more ready to take the risks they need with the points meaning that much more to them than for Southampton.

Neither team can really look at their defensive record and feel confident sitting on a lead either and so I will back at least three goals to be shared out here at the same price as the home win is set. I feel a lot more confident we will see goals than expecting a Southampton win and that will be my selection from this huge fixture for both clubs.

Fantasy Star: Nathan Redmond- Southampton are short of numbers up front which means Nathan Redmond could lead the line against a porous Fulham defence.

Alternative: Ryan Babel- Southampton are also pretty weak defensively and Babel has enough pace to get into a position to add to the goal scored on Friday evening.


Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Two of the top six clubs meet on Wednesday evening and it is no surprise that the television companies have picked this London derby to be brought to those wanting to watch some Premier League Football on the box.

It is a very important game for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur as they chase Champions League spots with 11 games left to play.

Tottenham Hotspur are much closer to the top two than the three teams chasing them, but the loss at Burnley was a devastating blow to any potential title challenge they were going to be able to put together. Mauricio Pochettino confronted the officials who had made some questionable decisions, but in reality he must have been furious with his players who have made it a habit to get close and then manage to produce a terrible result to avoid really being involved for the big prizes.

They will head to Stamford Bridge looking to avenge their League Cup Semi Final exit and Tottenham Hotspur may be hoping to exploit any lingering issues in the Chelsea camp as the fallout of Kepa's refusal to be substituted in the League Cup Final continues to be felt.

It would be a surprise if Kepa starts this one as Maurizio Sarri may want to remind the players who is in charge, but this is not a game where the manager can take too many chances with his team selection. The positive performance produced by Chelsea on Sunday was not rewarded with silverware and Sarri will quickly be under more pressure if his team were to lose further ground in the race for the top four.

For the most part Chelsea have continued to find their best form at Stamford Bridge and I do think they will look at the suspect Tottenham Hotspur defence and feel they can exploit them. The 0-2 loss to Manchester United in the FA Cup was a blow for Chelsea, but they have won 6 of their last 7 here and that includes beating Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg.

Tottenham Hotspur have also conceded at least two goals in their last 3 away games in all competitions and I do think the two teams can combine for at least three between them on Wednesday. 7 of the last 9 games played between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have hit that number, while 7 of the last 8 at Stamford Bridge between these rivals has done the same.

Picking a winner is not easy, but I think it could be an entertaining watch while we find that out and backing at least three goals here looks the play.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- the main man for Chelsea and was instrumental in helping them past Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup Semi Final.

Alternative: Harry Kane- boring suggestions from this fixture, but I anticipate goals and Hazard and Harry Kane should not be too far away from the main action.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: For the second time in a row at Old Trafford you could have perhaps questioned the substitutions made by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer when put under the pressure of needing to make quick decisions thanks to injuries on the pitch. Bringing on Jesse Lingard when knowing he was perhaps not fully fit and asking for 70 minutes seemed bizarre at the time and Manchester United didn't respond to the changes very well against Liverpool for a small period of time.

All credit has to be given to Solskjaer for getting the players in at half time and getting them organised where Manchester United were perhaps unfortunate to not beat Liverpool and there is a growing demand he is given the manager's job permanently.

It might still be too early for that decision to be made as Manchester United continue their fight for silverware in the FA Cup and trying to finish in the top four in the Premier League.

An injury crisis has come at a very difficult time when Manchester United are being asked to play every few days and this is a big test for them on Wednesday against an improving Crystal Palace team.

Injuries perhaps affected what Crystal Palace could do earlier in the season, but Roy Hodgson has a host of attacking options now and the 1-4 win at Leicester City on Saturday underlined that point. However The Eagles have suffered with injuries at the back over the last week and that could leave them vulnerable to a Manchester United team who have scored plenty of away goals of late.

My fear in this game is that both teams will be looking to counter attack and that may make it a tight fixture, while I would not put anyone off backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap. They might not have beaten Manchester United in 10 attempts at Selhurst Park, but Crystal Palace blew a 2-0 lead against them last season and this Manchester United team may be short of the numbers and the quality to get back into the fixture.

Defensively Manchester United have looked a little better over the last month, but I am anticipating Crystal Palace to create chances and this could be another fixture in this round of Premier League games that feature at least three goals.

Manchester United do have 4 clean sheets in a row away from home, but Crystal Palace look healthier up front and have scored in 5 in a row at Selhurst Park. The injuries in defensive areas should give United their chances too and they still have Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez who can create and score goals.

3 of the last 4 between these clubs on this ground have finished with three or more goals shared out and I think that may be the case again on Wednesday.

Fantasy Star: Wilfried Zaha- was the key to Crystal Palace's win over Leicester City on Saturday evening and will want to show his former club what they are missing.

Alternative: Romelu Lukaku- back in his favoured Number 9 position if Marcus Rashford is ruled out as expected and Crystal Palace suffering with key defensive personnel missing.


Liverpool v Watford Pick: There is no doubt that Liverpool have just stumbled over the last month after Manchester City seemingly handed them the chance to take full control of the Premier League title race when losing 2-1 at Newcastle United. Since that result Liverpool have drawn 3 of their last 4 Premier League games including the goalless draw at Old Trafford on Sunday and there has to be some elements of pressure affecting the players.

Being back at Anfield should be good news for Liverpool who have remained very strong here despite the 1-1 draw with Leicester City and goalless draw with Bayern Munich in the last four weeks. In between they have crushed Bournemouth 3-0 and Liverpool have won 8 of their last 9 League games in front of their own fans.

That should give them confidence to take into a fixture with an in-form Watford team, but one that could be dealing with some mental demons in this one. Liverpool have beaten them by a five goal margin in each of the last two games played between them at Anfield, while they also recorded a 0-3 win at Vicarage Road earlier this season.

Those margins of defeats can't be too far from the mind of the Watford players who will want to show they are better than those results. However I would fear for them if they were to fall behind early in this fixture and it is the only thing that is really putting me off backing the visitors with what I consider to be a big start on the Asian Handicap.

Watford last played on Friday compared with Liverpool on Sunday and The Hornets had a much more comfortable night than their opponents had at Old Trafford. Watford also look like they have the fresher squad going into this match with the potential absence of Andrew Robertson and Roberto Firmino a blow for Liverpool to deal with.

In the last few weeks Watford have shown some real resilience away from home and they were even leading at Tottenham Hotspur. Those heavy losses here do bother me, but Watford have every chance to make this a much more competitive outing against a Liverpool team who are under pressure to respond to recent results which have allowed Manchester City to close on them.

For Liverpool this is all about finding a way to win the fixture and I think it could be a tense day in the office for them. If Watford can score I would think this start given to them on the handicaps will offer them every chance to cover and I will back the visitors on their current form to do that.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- has not been in the best of form, but scored four goals against Watford here last season.

Alternative: Ben Foster- if Watford are going to surprise, the goalkeeper has to have a big game and he has been in the form to do that.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: On paper you can understand why the layers are taking no chances by pricing Manchester City as short as they are to win this game, but there has to be some comeback from the League Cup Final going to Extra Time and the emotion sapping penalty shoot out.

Injuries have been the main factor out of the Cup Final with Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho lost until next month and they join John Stones and Gabriel Jesus on the sidelines. There is still plenty of quality for Pep Guardiola to pick from, but tiredness has to be a potential factor against a West Ham United team who last played on Friday.

Manuel Pellegrini's side have caused problems for opponents when at their best, but they are a hard team to get a read on. One week they are battering Liverpool from pillar to post, but on another they are being beaten 3-0 at Wolves and perhaps fortunate not to have conceded double that amount.

West Ham United can't afford to be off their game in this one if they are going to challenge Manchester City and I do think they can at least trouble a defence that is not going to be at full strength. The Hammers have pace and some decent quality in the final third and I think they may get on the scoreboard for a fourth consecutive visit to the Etihad Stadium.

It is still hard to think they will get a result here considering the amount of goals being conceded by West Ham United away from home in the last six weeks. However the best play may be backing them to score in a losing effort and at the price that could be the best option on a day where it is hard to really know what kind of West Ham United team will turn up.

I do think it will be difficult for them to not expose some tiredness in the Manchester City team and the injuries at the back though and so that is my selection from this Premier League fixture to round out the game week.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- who else could it be but the player who has scored two hat-tricks in his last two starts at the Etihad Stadium?

Alternative: Kevin De Bruyne- getting closer and closer to full fitness and is a key for Manchester City. Tends to play his best games at home too.



Fantasy Advice
Anyone making their Fantasy Selections for each GameWeek are going to have some inspired selections and some not so inspired.

That was the case for me this past weekend, but you can see the players I've highlighted for GameWeek 28 below.


Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Alisson (Liverpool- 6 Million): Honestly there are not a lot of choices from the top priced goalkeepers this week, but the one most likely to keep a clean sheet is Alisson in my opinion. I have Ederson starting in my team, but I wouldn't waste money on a top keeper this GameWeek.


Goalkeeper 4.7 Million or Less
Rui Patricio (Wolves- 4.5 Million): It's a good price to get into the Wolves defence for an away game at Huddersfield Town. They do have Cardiff City at home next so could be good for a couple of clean sheets.


Defender 5 Million and Above
Harry Maguire (Leicester City- 5.4 Million): Always a chance of a goal from 'slab head' and Leicester City look to be entering a good run of fixtures.

Fabian Delph (Man City- 5.3 Million): I'll admit I can see West Ham United scoring against a tired Manchester City, but Fabian Delph may be employed in midfield and you can't turn your nose up at the potential assist and scoring chances that could present him.


Defender 4.9 Million and Below
Joel Matip (Liverpool- 4.9 Million): Looks to be assured of a place in the Liverpool defence at the moment with injuries in those positions in the squad.

Florian Lejeune (Newcastle United- 4.4 Million): An alternative to Jamaal Lascelles who I highlighted in GameWeek 27. Slightly cheaper option.


Midfielder 6.8 Million and Above
Eden Hazard (Chelsea- 10.8 Million): Has given Tottenham Hotspur fits in the League Cup Semi Final and is the key for Chelsea if they are going to win this game and get back into top four contention.

Leroy Sane (Man City- 9.5 Million): Only played in Extra Time for Manchester City in the League Cup Final and likely to be one of the attackers to freshen up the line up.

Paul Pogba (Man United- 8.9 Million): With the likes of Anthony Martial, Jesse Lingard and Marcus Rashford expected to miss out, the Frenchman will have to be the key to help Manchester United win at Selhurst Park.


Midfielder 6.7 Million and Below
Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Arsenal- 6.7 Million): A bit risky as he seems to be in and out of the team, but scored and assisted on Sunday and should get plenty of chances to open up this Bournemouth team.

James Maddison (Leicester City- 6.6 Million): Claude Puel is gone and I expect the Leicester City players to produce some big results in the weeks ahead. James Maddison is a key to that happening.

Nathan Redmond (Southampton- 5.3 Million): Likely leading the line for Southampton and playing against a Fulham defence that have conceded two or more away goals in their last 4 away Premier League games.


Forward 6.5 Million and Above
Romelu Lukaku (Man United- 10.7 Million): It is a lot of money, but Romelu Lukaku could remind the Manchester United fans of what he can do from the Number 9 position in the potential absence of Marcus Rashford.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City- 8.8 Million): The player who seemed to most dislike playing under Claude Puel could have a big game in the first since the Frenchman was sacked as manager.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.9 Million): The value keeps going only one way on Raul Jimenez in the official Fantasy game, but he keeps providing the goods and should have chances against Huddersfield Town.


Forward 6.4 Million and Below
Chris Wood (Burnley- 6.2 Million): I highlighted his team mate Ashley Barnes on Saturday and he did score in the 2-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur. Chris Wood also scored and has now hit four in his last three Premier League games.

Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool- 5.6 Million): He could earn a rare start with Roberto Firmino expected to miss out. Liverpool have scored 11 goals in their last two at Anfield against Watford so having a cheap striker in your team from Liverpool could pay dividends. Very short term pick though.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet365
Wolves @ 1.86 Bet Victor
Leicester City @ 1.86 Bet Victor

Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365
Southampton-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Chelsea-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365
Crystal Palace-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Watford + 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor
Manchester City & Both Teams to Score @ 2.50 Bet Victor

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