Tennis Picks 2019 (February 12th)

The 2016 and 2017 Tennis seasons were very difficult for the Tennis Picks, but the bounce back in 2018 has carried over to the start of the 2019 season and I have to be pleased with how things have gone so far.

Of course we are only six weeks into the long 2019 season, but last week was another strong one meaning every week I have made Picks have resulted in a winning record. That means the season so far is continuing to trend in a positive direction and I am looking for another strong showing as the ATP Tour hits three different spots around the globe and the WTA Tour moves to Doha in the first of two tournaments to be played in the Middle East.

With so many tournaments being played it does mean there is the potential for a number of Tennis Picks to be made on a day by day basis, although Monday was a quiet day. That is the day when a number of Qualifiers are completed and very few main draw matches take place, but I did have a look through those matches scheduled and nothing really stood out.

That is not the case on Tuesday as I have Tennis Picks from all four tournaments being played where a number of First Round matches are set to be played. Only a couple of those events are being played outdoors, but I don't expect the weather to prevent matches to be completed. However one factor that has to be taken into consideration is the strong wind set to be around in the WTA Doha tournament. It is a time when you have to consider the ball toss of players and decide which of those are going to be better suited to what can be difficult conditions to play in.

Only one of the tournaments are being played on the clay this week as the South American Golden Swing continues with a stop in Buenos Aires before the big event in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil next week. The tournament in Rotterdam and Doha are considered big ones for players on the ATP and WTA Tours respectively, while the indoor event in New York doesn't have the most impressive field but can still be an important time to earn vital Ranking points.


Below you can see my Tennis Picks from Tuesday and I have also updated the Season Totals.

Hopefully this can be another strong week to keep the positives going through February.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Matthew Ebden: I have to admit that Fernando Verdasco seems to produce some solid numbers on the court despite being a player that I find hard to trust at times. While he is very good when at his best, Verdasco is never that far away from throwing in a shocking set or two.

With that in mind I can go through weeks where I don't want to go near a Verdasco match and I am slightly wary in backing him to win this First Round match in Rotterdam. A part of the reason for that is that Verdasco has a miserable record in this tournament having won a single match in four previous entries into this ATP 500 event.

I think Verdasco has played the tournaments in Sofia last week and this one in Rotterdam knowing he has a very good chance to improve his World Ranking. He does have some points to protect in Indian Wells and Miami so producing some solid runs ahead of that could mean the Spaniard is in a position to be Seeded at the French Open.

He will be confident in beating Matthew Ebden who has had a very difficult start to the 2019 season and whose World Ranking will likely be slipping away from his career best at the end of 2018. The Australian is 2-3 on the hard courts in 2019 and his numbers have taken a dent with his hold percentage being a real worry down at 70% so far. That puts pressure on Ebden's return game which has been a problem for him throughout his career and Verdasco is playing well enough to exert his dominance in the match.

Fernando Verdasco has opened the season with his hold percentage up at 85% and he has continued to return as well as he was doing on the surface in 2018. Since the start of the 2017 season Verdasco has returned well enough on the hard courts which sees him breaking serve at around 24% of the time and the steadiness of that side of his game should see him beat Matthew Ebden in this First Round match.

These two met on an indoor hard court in Stockholm at the end of the 2018 season and Fernando Verdasco dominated that match with a comfortable win. The Spaniard took his chances when they presented themselves that day and I think he can do the same here and cover what looks a big number on paper.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: A solid run to the Semi Final last week in Montpellier will have given Tomas Berdych a boost in terms of his World Ranking as he continues his return to the Tour following injury. He is under some pressure this week as Berdych is going to be protecting a Quarter Final run here in Rotterdam and a Semi Final run in Marseille the following the week.

The ATP 500 nature of the tournament in Rotterdam means his World Ranking could take a serious hit if Berdych is not able to have a good run here. He has opened the season playing well enough as he has held serve at 87%, but Berdych will know there is still room for improvement if he is going to get back to anything near the level he was playing at prior to the injury which cut short his 2018 season.

One of the main areas of improvement will be in the return of serve and Berdych has not been as effective at break serve as he would have liked. The numbers have shown a sharp decline from 2018 to 2019, but the sample size is not that big at the moment and a match like this one should give Berdych more chances to improve those returning numbers.

Gilles Simon is another veteran of the Tour these days, and he has managed to earn his place in the main draw by coming through the Qualifiers despite having a much higher Ranking than Berdych. He had something of an Indian Summer on the hard courts in 2018 as Simon reversed what had been declining numbers in the last few years, and the Frenchman has opened 2019 in good form too which makes him a dangerous opponent for Berdych if the latter is not on his game.

Previous matches between the two have shown Simon is capable of blunting the Berdych power and frustrating him into making mistakes. However Berdych has won their last three matches and he has been the stronger player on the hard courts in their most recent matches which should mean he is going onto the court with the belief he can win this match.

It has been a couple of years since these two played one another on the hard courts, but you can see Berdych has got a better grip of playing Simon in the latter years. Gilles Simon won four of the first five between these two on the hard courts, but since then it is Berdych who has won the next four of five matches on this surface.

In those five matches Berdych has really got the better of the Simon serve and his own serve has proven to be a difficult one for the Frenchman to challenge. Tomas Berdych has broken serve 35% of the time compared with Gilles Simon at 11% in those last five matches on the hard courts and I do think his serve is going to give him the edge in this one too.

Neither player has been a dominant returner on the hard courts in 2019, but Berdych has a slight edge over Simon in that department too as he seems to have played the big points a little better. He can do that again in this First Round match barring any lingering fatigue from the run to the Semi Final last week and I will back Tomas Berdych to win and cover.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Marcelo Arevalo: During this time of the season the South American Golden Swing will give the opportunity to a number of players much lower down the World Rankings to play in the main draw of events and improve their own positions. Players like Marcelo Arevalo don't get an easy path into the main draw though as they have to take part in Qualifiers and he failed to make it through in the tournament in Cordoba last week before having success here in Buenos Aires.

The El Salvadorian has never cracked the top 100 of the World Rankings and who is currently outside the top 200. A win in the First Round would give him the chance to build some momentum and have his Ranking moving back in the right direction, but the draw has not been that kind to him.

Marcelo Arevalo faces Pablo Cuevas who reached the Semi Final in Cordoba last week and who is at his best on the South American clay courts. His performances in Cordoba backed up that statement about Cuevas and I don't think he was helped in the Semi Final loss to Guido Pella considering he had to play twice in the same day due to the rain putting the tournament behind schedule.

Arevalo has produced some decent numbers on the clay courts although the majority of his matches have not been played in ATP events. Instead he is someone who has tried to make his career on the Challenger circuit and this is a big step up for him when he faces Cuevas.

The latter has kept his numbers very steady on the clay courts in recent years and that is the kind of level that should be too much for Arevalo to handle. Pablo Cuevas has held serve at least 81% of the time on the clay courts in each season beginning with 2015 and he has kept his returning points percentage between 38% and 39%.

These two met twice in 2018 and one of those matches was on the clay courts. Both matches were won pretty easily by Cuevas and he did not get broken in either match, while he managed to break the Arevalo serve at 34% of the time. I think Pablo Cuevas can continue that kind of form in this match and I expect to break down the Marcelo Arevalo game and that should lead to a cover in this First Round match.


Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: In the last few years the Aljaz Bedene serve has been quite up and down on the clay courts and it is such an important weapon for him that it can determine how well he is doing. 2018 proved to be a down year on this surface, but Bedene has shown an ability to bounce back from those years although maintaining his form through back to back years has proven too much for him.

The Quarter Final run in Cordoba last week suggests Bedene might be ready for another good year on the clay, but he will want to underline that by backing it up with a strong showing in Buenos Aires this week.

It has to be said that the serve kind of let Bedene down in the Quarter Final loss to Pablo Cuevas, but this First Round match sees him facing someone who has not spent a lot of time at the main ATP level.

Guido Andreozzi is currently Number 74 in the World Rankings which has given him a direct entry into the main draw in Buenos Aires. He has lost his first two matches on the clay courts in 2019, but Andreozzi is another South American who spends the large amount of his time on this surface and has built success at the Challenger level which has improved his World Ranking.

The Argentinian has won plenty of matches on the clay courts in the last few years and his numbers both on serve and return are respectable. However Andreozzi is just 3-7 in clay court matches played on the clay courts since the start of the 2015 season which underlines the points about the majority of his wins coming at a lower level than the one he is entering this week.

Andreozzi has just struggled to maintain his numbers at this level with the return of serve taking a serious hit. That means there is more pressure on him to serve at his very best and it is not easy to do on the clay courts when so many rallies have to be played and I think that will give Bedene the edge in this match too.

Both players should have their chances to roll through some service games, but I think the Bedene return of serve will prove to be the reason he is able to move through to the Second Round. It might be a tough atmosphere to play in as Andreozzi is expected to get some real backing from his home fans, but Bedene should be used to playing in Davis Cup environments and I think he will work his way to a win with a cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ramkumar Ramanathan - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 38.72 Units (279 Units Staked, + 13.88% Yield)