Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 19-21)

The Champions League opening games might have been good ones for the neutral, but it wasn't much fun for Manchester United fans after suffering a home loss to Paris Saint-Germain that puts them firmly behind the black ball as far as progressing to the Quarter Finals goes.

That's something that will be revisited next month when United head to Paris and try and overturn the big advantage Paris Saint-Germain have built up, but the French Champions have had some memorable Champions League collapses before so you just never know.


This week it is the turn of the two biggest United rivals to get on with the opening of their Last 16 Champions League ties, while both Arsenal and Chelsea aim to put themselves into the hat for the Europa League Last 16 draw which takes place on Friday. Even though Arsenal were beaten in the First Leg, I would expect both of those clubs to find their way through to the next Round in what may soon become their best pathway back into the Champions League much like it was for Manchester United in the 2016/17 season.


The Premier League is going to be back this weekend, but fixtures begin on Friday so the Fantasy Football thread with the weekend selections will be ready to go around six hours before the FPL deadline on the day.


Liverpool v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Last 16 draw has pitted together three ties involving English Premier League clubs taking on Bundesliga representatives and this is the second of those three ties.

Last week Tottenham Hotspur weathered an early Borussia Dortmund storm and then cruised into a 3-0 lead against the Bundesliga leaders, but Dortmund might just be going through a sticky patch. That isn't the case as much for Bayern Munich who have been scoring goals and producing plenty of wins to close the gap on the leaders in Germany and also give themselves real momentum going into the First Leg of this Second Round tie.

They face a rested Liverpool team whose primary focus may be winning the Premier League title, but who showed they are a dangerous Champions League team on their run to the Final last season. While some would suggest Liverpool ignore all Cup competitions and solely focus on the League, Jurgen Klopp won't want to lose to a team from the Bundesliga and Liverpool should have had ample time to prepare for this tie.

The absence of Virgil Van Dijk is a real blow for Liverpool considering the strength he has helped impose at the back. That may leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's attacking play, but I also think Liverpool have players in the final third that will scare the Bavarian giants and who have to be respected.

Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals and have a long unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League. In their 8 games unbeaten, Bayern Munich have scored in each one and also beaten the likes of Sevilla and drawn at Real Madrid in a game they could have easily won on another day.

It makes me believe they can play their part in this First Leg, but my lean has been to Liverpool to have a lead to take to Germany next month. Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League games including the last 5 in a row, and one of the exceptions was a goalless draw with Porto in this Round twelve months ago after Liverpool had crushed them in Portugal.

Liverpool score plenty of goals at home in the Champions League and I think they edge out a high-scoring game which leaves the Second Leg with all to play for. The best play on the day may be backing Liverpool to win the First Leg in which both teams hit the net and that has to be worth a small interest.


Lyon v Barcelona Pick: A few days ago the layers were thinking about giving Lyon a full goal head-start on the Asian Handicap for this Last 16 First Leg tie and I would have been very keen to select the French side as the right play in this fixture.

Things have just changed slightly so while Lyon are getting a start, they are not getting the full goal which means a one goal loss would see half the stake refunded and the other half settled as a loser.

It worries me slightly, but I really do think Lyon have the talent and the confidence to earn a positive result in the First Leg of this Champions League tie, although Barcelona should be too strong over two Legs.

Lyon's recent home form in the Champions League is a worry with a single win from 10 games they have hosted in this competition, but only Juventus have managed to win from the last 6 visitors. Manchester City had massive problems dealing with Lyon in the Group Stage and I do think the confidence of the talented players the French side have can at least put Barcelona under pressure here.

They are also facing a Barcelona team who had won 1 of 7 away Champions League games prior to this season, although they did beat Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven on their travels in the Group. The win over PSV was a narrow one though and Barcelona are a team that are vulnerable away from the Nou Camp and I do think Lyon can take advantage of a team that has not been in the best form of late.

Lyon have drawn with Manchester City and beaten Paris Saint-Germain here and scored twice in both games. If they reach that number again I don't think they lose and I am not always convinced about Barcelona away from home despite the obvious talent they have.

Barcelona would likely be very happy with a score draw here and I will select Lyon with the start to get something from the First Leg.


Atletico Madrid v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties in the Champions League I do think the Atletico Madrid versus Juventus one is the toughest to call.

Both teams will play with a similar ambition in this one with neither wanting to give too much away and hoping for magic from their forward players.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns to Madrid for the first time since leaving Real Madrid and I am sure he is going to get a very 'warm' reception from the Atletico fans. He has provided the magic moments to help beat Atletico Madrid a number of times in the Champions League during his time with Real Madrid and looks to be the main Juventus threat on the pitch.

Antoine Griezmann will be looking to spark Atletico Madrid who would love to be playing the Champions League Final in their home Stadium in June.

Neither team has been in outstanding form which does make this tie that much tougher to call, although my lean is that home advantage in the Second Leg will be the critical factor and give Juventus the chance to edge through to the Quarter Final.

First they have to concentrate on this Leg and Juventus have been very good away from home in the Champions League in the last twelve months. During that time they have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, Valencia and Manchester United and so you have to think that Juventus will be feeling good about their chances here.

However Atletico Madrid have a very strong home record with 8 straight home European wins including beating the likes of Roma and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. I really am having a hard time separating the teams and this is a tie that could be decided by an outstanding piece of skill to break down two organised defences.

I don't think either will want to give too much away in the First Leg though and backing a draw might be worth a small interest on the day.


Schalke v Manchester City Pick: At this moment the layers are taking no chances with the Manchester City prices to win games of football and that has seen them being asked to cover some big handicaps as short priced favourites.

A week ago Manchester City were the favourites to win here, but they have seen that price shrink after resting key players in the win over Newport County on Saturday. All of those big names are expected back in the Champions League and you can't really argue that the expectation is that Manchester City are going to win this First Leg simply on current form.

Schalke have played better at home, but they are a team struggling in the Bundesliga and the style of play should work to Manchester City's advantage. The home team will know their best chance of upsetting the favourites in this tie is by winning the Home Leg and that should leave spaces for the speed of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to expose.

Manchester City have already won in Hoffenheim in the Group and I suggest this task is perhaps a slightly more 'easier' one for them as long as they focus. You have to respect every team when they are hosting the fixture, but Manchester City have the talent edge and I can see them opening up Schalke whenever the Bundesliga club come forward.

Schalke have lost 3 of their last 4 home games against Premier League opposition all 3 losses came by two or more goals. They have lost 6 home Bundesliga games and 4 of those have come by at least two goal margins, while Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away Champions League fixtures and 4 of those have come by two or more goals.

I can't see beyond a Manchester City win here and I think they will do it with room to spare and make the Second Leg little more than a formality to progress to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.75 Bet Victor
Lyon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Atletico Madrid-Juventus Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor