Tennis Picks 2019 (February 7th)

Wednesday proved to be another good start to the week for the Tennis Picks with the six selections ending up with a 4-2 record.

It could have been better, but I was surprised at how poorly David Goffin played in his loss, while Karen Khachanov started off very well and kind of fell apart to lose in three sets.

Fortunately it was a good day for the most part and I am looking to produce a fourth winning week on the Tour after having backed up the strong selections at the Australian Open to keep the 2019 season moving in a positive direction.

The remaining Second Round matches at the three ATP events are being played on Thursday so it is another busy day with plenty of action throughout from Montpellier and Sofia leading into the tournament being played in Cordoba to begin the South American Golden Swing.

I have yet to have a selection from the Cordoba event on the clay, but that will change on Thursday with the majority of the selections being made from that tournament. It is the first clay court action of the season for many of the players in Argentina, but a number of specialists are in the draw too before some of the much bigger names on the Tour join the Golden Swing through the remainder of the month.

I have looked at a couple of matches in depth below and then I have added the remaining selections to the 'MY PICKS' section below. The weekly totals are updated below that.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: Both Pablo Cuevas and Malek Jaziri won their first match at the ATP Cordoba event and move through to this Second Round meeting.

Over the years playing on the clay courts has been far from easy for Jaziri, but the veteran had a good looking win in the First Round over Carlos Berlocq and that should give him some confidence. He did not serve as well as he would have liked in that win, and that is going to be a problem for Jaziri in this match as it has been when playing on the main ATP Tour on this surface throughout his career.

Malek Jaziri did have a decent enough season on the clay courts in 2018 so there may be a feeling that he has gotten comfortable on the surface. However this is a step up in level for the Tunisian who has reached a career best World Ranking already in 2019 and could improve on that with a strong run in this tournament.

His return of serve is going to be important on the clay courts, but Jaziri will also have to look after this own serve better than he did in the First Round and better than his levels produced in the last few years. That is the case when facing someone like Pablo Cuevas who is very strong on the clay courts and has a serve that can set him up to win plenty of matches.

Pablo Cuevas holds serve considerably better than Jaziri on the clay courts and he was a dominant First Round winner where Jaziri did have his difficulties.

While the return game is perhaps not quite as good as it could be, Cuevas is someone who has a consistent ability to break serve on the clay courts. In each of the last four years Cuevas has won between 37.5% and 38.5% of the return points against the serve and that has led to a pretty consistent break percentage on the clay courts.

That is the kind of level that could give him every chance to not only win this match with Jaziri, but also find the breaks of serve to cover a big number. Pablo Cuevas has beaten Malek Jaziri on a hard court in 2016, but the clay is his favoured domain and I do think his superior serve numbers will see him give up fewer break points and ultimately do enough to move through to the Quarter Final with a relatively straight-forward win.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There are some big Ranking points for Fabio Fognini to defend on the clay courts over the next month, but the Italian is still very close to achieving his best World Ranking in his career. He remains inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but Fognini could see a considerable drop if he is not able to produce his best tennis during the Golden Swing.

Over the last few years the Fognini numbers on the clay courts have been far from elite level, but he has managed to win plenty of matches on the surface. One of the main problems for Fognini is his serve is one that can be attacked, especially if he is failing to get enough first serves in play, while Fognini is never too far away from mentally checking out of sets.

That can see him drop sets by wide margins as he perhaps focuses on the next set rather than fighting to get back into one. It is a criticism of Fognini, but his tennis clearly works for him as he gets set for his first clay court match of the 2019 season.

He may not have been able to ask for a much better opponent as Fognini takes on Aljaz Bedene who was a strong winner in the First Round. A couple of years ago Bedene was in fantastic form on the clay courts and his numbers were very impressive, but last year they were back at a level that has been more in keeping with the rest of his career.

It was the Bedene serve which really sparked his strong 2017 showing on the clay courts as he held at 83% with 66% of points won behind serve. In 2018 those numbers dipped back to 73% and 61% respectively and Bedene is going to have some trouble picking up his play in this match.

Fabio Fognini has won all seven previous matches played against Bedene and he has won six of those on the clay courts. The numbers in those previous matches on the clay have seen Fognini hold serve at a much higher percentage than his usual level on this surface, while Bedene has only managed to hold 69% of service games played.

The last of those matches came last year in Rio de Janeiro and Fognini would have covered this number in four of six matches against Bedene on the clay courts including the last three in a row. He clearly enjoys this match up and I think Fognini can cover again as long as he doesn't take too long getting readjusted to tennis back on the clay courts.

The Italian's numbers are slightly superior to Bedene's overall, but you can see he has a clear edge when they have faced one another. I expect that to be the case again and I will look for Fabio Fognini to win by a wide enough margin to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.08 Units (12 Units Staked, + 25.67% Yield)