Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 12-14)

The Champions League is back this week as the first half of the Last 16 First Legs are played on Tuesday and Wednesday before the second half of those ties commence next Tuesday.

The Europa League has an extra Knock Out Round to negotiate than the Champions League so the entire Last 32 ties will be completed over the next ten days before the draw for the Last 16 is made and those ties are set to go in early March. That will be the same time as the Champions League Last 16 Second Legs are played.


With a number of the big name teams all getting through to the Last 16 of the Champions League it does mean we have been rewarded with some mouth-watering ties. The neutrals are going to really be in a position to enjoy those the most, but for fans of the clubs involved it can be an exciting and tense time.

As a Manchester United fan I certainly feel like the Last 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain is the pick of the Round, especially with the changes that have happened at Old Trafford since the day the draw was put together. Jose Mourinho was still in charge of Manchester United that Monday morning after the Liverpool defeat, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over a day later and Manchester United have responded with a fantastic run and are now narrow underdogs against PSG.

The French Champions are missing Neymar and Edinson Cavani for the First Leg which will only encourage United fans even more, but my gut feeling is that Paris are going to be a little too good over two Legs. I don't think they will have it easy though and if United can take a two goal lead to the French capital I may change my mind, but my feeling is that we are going to see two high-scoring games and Paris Saint-Germain may still be slightly stronger.

There is pressure on them to perform though considering the open secret of the owners prioritising the Champions League and a third straight Last 16 exit would be a huge blow for the club. Manchester United seem to have less to lose and that may be a factor that helps them earn the upset and book a spot in the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time since David Moyes was manager of the club.

Two of the other English clubs involved in the Second Round are also involved in good looking ties on paper- Tottenham Hotspur are battling through injuries as they host Borussia Dortmund in the First Leg, while Liverpool take on defending German Champions Bayern Munich.

I really believe both clubs have a very good chance of progressing, but they have to have leads to take to Germany next month if they are going to do that. My feeling is that the Premier League clubs will just have a little too much for the Bundesliga ones over two Legs, although I am sure some Liverpool fans won't begrudge going out of the competition if it enhances their chances of winning the Premier League.

Manchester City received the easiest of the Second Round ties, but they were the only English Group Winners so they deserve the reward of facing Schalke who are struggling in the Bundesliga. A sweep of the German top flight by English teams is a genuine possibility in the Second Round which would not be welcomed by the Bundesliga.


Real Madrid and Barcelona should be comfortable in making it through to yet another Champions League Quarter Final when they meet Ajax and Lyon respectively. Both of the underdogs impressed in the Group Stage, but things tend to be ramped up at this stage of the Champions League and the two Spanish clubs are amongst the favourites to win the top prize again. Those two teams have won the last five Champions League titles since Bayern Munich in 2013 and good luck if you're opposing them to continue that trend.


No disrespect to Roma and Porto, but the winner of that Second Round tie is going to be the team that the other seven who make it through to the Last Eight will be hoping to draw in the next Round. The edge has to be given to Roma after their Semi Final run last season, even if the team is not as strong this time around, and it would be a real surprise if either of these teams would make it beyond the Quarter Final.

Finally the Italian Champions Juventus look to take the next step in the Champions League having finished Runners Up in two of the last four seasons. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a breathtaking goal against Manchester United in the Group Stage, but the big investment was made in the striker to perform now and Juventus are hoping he can be the differential having lost some tight matches in recent years.

They meet Atletico Madrid in the Second Round in what looks a tactically fascinating match, although perhaps not one for those who like seeing high-scoring games of football. Atletico Madrid are another club who have come very, very close to winning the Champions League in recent years and they have the confidence of winning the Europa League last season behind them, but I can't help feel that Diego Simeone's window to win the top European competition has just shut a little bit.

Atletico Madrid should be highly motivated to reach the Final which is being played in their magnificent new Stadium, but I am leaning towards Juventus making it through this difficult tie especially with home advantage in the Second Leg.


The Europa League is also back this week as I have mentioned and that means the British interest is with Arsenal, Chelsea and Celtic.

After recent performances in the Premier League, both London clubs might just be taking a second look at the Europa League as the way to get back into the Champions League. It is far too early to think Arsenal or Chelsea prioritise the Europa League over the Premier League, but it is important for both teams to make it through to the Last 16 and keep two paths into the top European competition open going into March.

They face BATE Borisov and Malmo respectively and I won't be writing anything controversial by suggesting Arsenal and Chelsea are huge favourites to make it through those ties. The situation is clearer for Arsenal who face BATE Borisov twice over an eight day period without any fixtures in between, but Chelsea have to play Malmo around the Monday night FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Manchester United so Maurizio Sarri has to find the right blend in those games while also dealing with the fallout from the 6-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City.

Brendan Rodgers will be happy to take his Celtic team into European competition after Christmas which has long been the target for him. They failed to make it into the Champions League Group Stage for the first time under the former Liverpool manager and Celtic rode their luck to edge out Leipzig in the Europa League Group. Now they face a tough test from the Primera Division in Spain as they meet Valencia who only just finished behind Manchester United in the Champions League Group Stage back in December.

Most have Valencia down as a pretty big favourite to progress, but a good result in the First Leg could give Celtic a chance against a goal-shy opponent. It's still a long shot but Celtic have nothing to lose in a tie where they are a heavy underdog and the First Leg at Celtic Park is going to produce a top atmosphere like many of their European home nights tend to do.


Below you can read my thoughts and selections as to how I believe the European ties being played this week are going to go. The big one is on Tuesday night at Old Trafford, but the rest of the week has some good looking action too before we move into the FA Cup Fifth Round ties being played over the upcoming weekend.


Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: When the draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League was made in mid-December the initial reaction from the oddsmakers were that Paris Saint-Germain were going to be strong favourites to see off Manchester United.

At that time Manchester United had just been hammered 3-1 at Liverpool and Jose Mourinho was still in charge, but the last two months have seen things change drastically.

Now the players are performing with confidence and 10 wins from 11 games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer means they come into this tie with a lot of belief they can see off one of the Champions League favourites. Things have also changed for Paris Saint-Germain, but those changes have been far less positive with news that two of the vaunted front three could miss the First Leg.

Neymar is almost certainly out of both Legs, but Edinson Cavani suffered a knock which makes him a doubt for the game at Old Trafford too.

Before United fans get too carried away I do think Paris Saint-Germain still have plenty of quality going forward and Manchester United have looked far from secure defensively. However the positive attitude of Solskjaer has rubbed off on the players and their confidence getting forward should give Manchester United plenty of chances to try and expose a Paris Saint-Germain defence which has had problems in the Champions League in recent years.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Paris Saint-Germain have conceded at least two goals at Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Liverpool in the Champions League. The last four clubs all scored at least three home goals against Paris Saint-Germain and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough and have enough pace in the final third to at least get at their visitors.

Keeping the backdoor shut won't be easy even though PSG are without Neymar and possibly without Cavani.

With that in mind we could see one of the more entertaining ties in the Last 16 of the Champions League. Both Legs should see goals being scored and I believe it is going to be a tie that should be pleasing on the eye for the neutrals tuning in.

Paris Saint-Germain have a pretty poor record in England having won 1 of their last 9 visits across the Channel. They have been beaten in this country in half of their 6 visits since 2014 and I think Manchester United can add to that record.

I imagine the tie will still be very much alive when they reconvene in Paris next month, but I am going to back Manchester United to have a lead going into the Second Leg.

It is hard to imagine PSG leaving Old Trafford without a goal though and so I will have a small interest in Manchester United to win a game in which both teams score. Paris Saint-Germain still have enough of a threat in the final third to pose Manchester United problems and 1 clean sheet in 7 games at Old Trafford makes it hard to believe they can keep one here.

The French Champions have also scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 visits to England in the Champions League including twice at Liverpool in the Group Stage and so backing Manchester United to win a game where both teams score looks a very big price and worth a small interest.

Of course I would love United to win this one 4-0, but my head is ruling my heart with this selection from a fascinating Last 16 tie.


Roma v Porto Pick: The Champions League is always going to be a very important competition for clubs around Europe and this looks like a tie that both Roma and Porto will appreciate as they try and reach the Quarter Final of the tournament.

It is not one in which you can clearly pick who will make it through to the Last Eight and I do think the home Legs are going to be critical for both clubs.

This feels especially important for Roma who are perhaps not the best travellers in the Champions League. They had won 7 in a row at home in the competition before losing to Real Madrid in the Group Stage, but the away form has been miserable with 7 losses from their last 8 in the Champions League.

Roma have been a little out of sync domestically which raises some doubts about them, but they have remained steady at home and have won 4 of 6 here since the loss to Real Madrid. They have scored plenty of goals in those games and I think the play will be dominated by Roma in this First Leg.

However that may leave them vulnerable to the counter attack and Porto do have the kind of players in the final third who can spring quickly and cause huge damage when they exploit spaces left by teams. The goals scored in the wins at Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray shows how dangerous Porto can be, while they have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and that has to be respected.

Porto won in Rome in August 2016 as the home team fell apart when two men were sent off, but I do give this current Roma team the narrow edge in this First Leg.

As much as Porto need to be respected for their away run in the Champions League, they have just been struggling for goals in recent away games domestically and this should be a step up in terms of quality. Backing Roma on the Asian Handicap at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw and that is the selection I recommend in this one.


Ajax v Real Madrid Pick: Like the Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain tie, this feels like another that would have had a different feeling if the matches had been played in December when the draw was made rather than in February.

Ajax had just been through a tough Group Stage unbeaten and had held Bayern Munich to draws at home and away, while Real Madrid almost looked lost with their inconsistent performances and some difficult defeats to absorb.

Now the three time defending Champions League Winners look to be rounding back into form as the concentration picks up from the players into February. Real Madrid have been in fine form in recent games and their performance in the draw at Barcelona and win at Atletico Madrid suggest the players are locked in and ready for another strong Champions League run.

There is no doubting Ajax can make it tough for Real Madrid considering they are unbeaten in 30 at home in all competitions. They have won 5 of their 6 home Champions League games this season and Ajax had their chances to beat Bayern Munich in both games in the Group.

However they have come out of their Winter Break in erratic form having lost 2 and won 2 of 5 games played. Both defeats came away from home, but this is another step up in terms of a test for a young team and I think it is going to be difficult for Ajax to contain Real Madrid in the form they are in.

I think Ajax can play their part and they have shown they can score plenty of goals, but they also concede too many. Real Madrid look like they have turned a corner in terms of focus as we head into the final three months of the season and I think that change in mentality will see them battle hard and find a way to earn the win in Amsterdam to set them up for a place in the Quarter Final.

Real Madrid have been very good away from home in the Champions League having won 10 of their last 13 on their travels. They have scored at least twice in each of those wins too and I will back them to win here in a game that features two or more goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Over the years the feeling has been that the Knock Out Rounds of the big European competitions will develop into chess matches as managers try and minimise damage to their own teams as the first priority.

It does feel like there has been a shift in the approach of many over the last couple of years though and now teams look to get on the front foot and score the goals to take them through the Rounds.

In the 2014/15 season 14/29 matches finished with less than three goals in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds and that number has moved to 16, 9 and then 5 in the next three seasons.

Last season there were plenty of goals scored in the Knock Out Rounds and while VAR may have an impact against that, I do think the teams involved in the Champions League are much more known for positive, attacking play than strong arm defensive tactics.

Tottenham Hotspur versus Borussia Dortmund certainly feels like the making of two high-scoring fixtures as they meet in the First Leg in London on Wednesday evening. The home team have the onus to get forward and have a lead to take to Dortmund next month, while Borussia Dortmund are a real attacking threat mixed in with some defensive vulnerabilities.

The two previous matches between these clubs at Wembley Stadium in 2016 and 2017 both featured at least three goals and I do think there is enough quality in the final third to reach that number again. Keeping a clean sheet longs a long shot for either team on current form and I think there will be enough chances in this one to see at least three goals shared out despite the age old feeling that the First Leg of these ties can be feeling out affairs.

In the last three seasons only 8/24 First Legs have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and I don't think this will be one of those. Before Tottenham Hotspur's 1-0 win over Inter Milan their last 7 home Champions League games had ended with at least three goals shared out.

The Borussia Dortmund away games in the Group Stage did all end with two or fewer goals shared out, but they are not defending too well at the moment and I will look for three or more goals to be scored on Wednesday evening.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal Pick: This is not quite the time for Unai Emery to hitch his wagon to either the Europa League or trying to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but the manager will be keen to keep both avenues open for a return to the Champions League. His previous successes in the Europa League means the manager knows what needs to be done to progress from these Knock Out ties and Arsenal may also benefit from being out of the FA Cup as that means a free weekend to rest coming up.

With that in mind I would expect a strong Arsenal team to be selected in this First Leg as they look to get into a comfortable position in the tie before the Second Leg back at home next week. The team Unai Emery selected in the Group game in Lisbon against Sporting showed he is willing to play key players in the Europa League to make sure the job is done and I think that could be the case here with that free weekend next up.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may not be risked as he recovers from an illness, but the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Alex Iwobi and Alexandre Lacazette could be taken to Belarus and that would give Arsenal a real edge in this First Leg.

BATE Borisov have made it through to the Knock Out Rounds of a European competition for the first time so have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them. They pushed Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat to them in the Group Stage, but I do think they are dealing with a difficult situation as they play this tie in the middle of their Winter Break and the inexperience of building match fitness to be ready for this time of the year may cost the home team.

They have also suffered 3 losses to PSV Eindhoven, PAOK and Chelsea in Europe already this season and Arsenal have won 7 of 10 away Europa League games over the last eighteen months. One of those was the 2-4 win at BATE Borisov and I think Unai Emery selects a team that can give them a big advantage for the home Leg and thus allow him to rest one or two more key names ahead of the return of the Premier League the following weekend.

I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap and secure a fourth away win in the Europa League this week.


Celtic v Valencia Pick: Getting to play in any of the European competitions after Christmas is a big achievement for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers will be looking for his players to use the domestic momentum to try and surprise one of the favourites to win the Europa League.

Any chance of that happening will have seen the foundations of the upset laid at home and Celtic are going to have their chances to at least have a lead to take to Spain next week. It won't be easy with the squad being stretched by injuries, but Valencia are anything but convincing away from home and Celtic can cause them one or two problems.

Valencia have been tough to beat in recent games, but they have not been winning too many themselves and that makes it hard to see them as a pretty short favourite to win at a tough ground like Celtic Park. They were recently leading 0-2 at Barcelona in an eventual 2-2 draw, but Valencia have not travelled well in European games over the last few years and that includes failing to win as a favourite at Basel and Young Boys.

Some will suggest Celtic are arguably weaker than both of those Swiss teams, but they are still a tough out at home. Brendan Rodgers' style does leave Celtic more open than you would perhaps like against some of the better teams in Europe, but that style can also see them put Valencia under pressure and I think they will be roared on passionately by the supporters on Thursday.

The Celtic players can have a chance to express their love for the supporters on Valentines' Day by producing a big performance and at least avoiding defeat in the First Leg. They have been playing well enough at Celtic Park to think they can do that and I am not convinced Valencia will be pushing for a winner if they are holding a draw going into the last fifteen minutes of this one.


Malmo v Chelsea Pick: The Europa League is certainly going to be seen as a potential route back into the Champions League by the fans of Arsenal and Chelsea who both sit outside the top four of the Premier League as this competition resumes.

Maurizio Sarri has to be feeling the pressure to deliver Champions League Football back to Stamford Bridge and that will only have increased after yet another capitulation from his team away from home. This time it was at Manchester City as Chelsea were embarrassed 6-0 by the defending Champions on Sunday and the Italian manager has to be looking for an immediate reaction.

Chelsea have been in miserable form away from home though and this tie comes in the midst of a very tough run. The Blues have played at Manchester City and next face Manchester United in the FA Cup, Manchester City again, this time in the League Cup Final, and then Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.

That won't be enough of an excuse if Chelsea are not able to see off Malmo over two Legs and I don't think they will slip up against the Swedish team who have not played a competitive game since early December. However I do think Chelsea could be given some problems to deal with in the First Leg in Sweden where Malmo have a long unbeaten run and have also not lost any of their last 8 European games.

The majority of those games have been against teams far weaker than Chelsea though and even the changes expected to be made to the away team should not affect their chances of winning this fixture. It might make it a slightly tighter game though and I do think Chelsea will be pretty content if they don't lose here which means the Manchester United game on Monday could be the priority for them.

A team containing Andreas Christensen, Ross Barkley, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Willian and Olivier Giroud should do enough to manage Malmo and Chelsea have done that in the Europa League this season having secured two narrow wins and a draw away from home in the Group.

Malmo will likely be competitive even if they fall short of the quality needed to beat Chelsea on the day. That should give them a chance to at least keep this close with the start on the Asian Handicap appealing enough to back them considering Chelsea's form and likely team changes made.

There is a concern that Chelsea will put all their form together and earn a big win in Sweden on Thursday, but there aren't too many sweet nothings being whispered between the manager and the players and I don't foresee a St Valentines' Massacre being produced by Chelsea in the First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win & Both Teams to Score @ 4.00 Bet Fred
Roma - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor
Real Madrid Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Celtic + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Malmo + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor