It was an up and down Monday, but I will have used it as a learning experience as I have made a few adjustments to a couple of players going forward.
I was a little unlucky to come away with a losing start to the week as Taro Daniel should really have worked his way to a win over Marco Trungelliti, while Roger Federer missed a cover by one game after going through the first two sets without making as much of an impact on the Philipp Kohlschreiber serve as he perhaps should have done.
It happens and I also had a bad selection thrown in which means coming away with three losses from five picks made.
On Tuesday there is a whole host of matches scheduled to be played in the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo. As will be the case every day this week, I will add the selections from the Acapulco event later once those markets and order of play have come together. Of course we could have another situation like Monday where I didn't have any selections from the Acapulco event because nothing hit my mark, but we will see on Tuesday.
What I do know at the time of writing is these are my Tennis Picks from the two tournaments I have mentioned and you can read them below.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: In a somewhat surprising development Kei Nishikori is playing at the ATP Dubai tournament for the first time in his career. You do tend to worry when a player arrives at a new tournament and looks to work their way into understanding the conditions at the event, but Nishikori is one of the top names on the Tour and I don't think that can be an excuse if he is upset in the First Round.
A bigger test may come from opponent Benoit Paire who has beaten Nishikori twice before on the professional Tour. Both previous wins for Paire against Nishikori have come on the hard courts including when he upset him at the US Open, but their most recent match came in Tokyo at the back end of last season and it resulted in a very comfortable win for Nishikori.
2019 has started very well for Nishikori who has won one title and reached the Quarter Final and the Semi Final in the other two events he has played. The hard courts have been very good to Nishikori throughout his career and he would love to put another big week in the books before heading to the tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and over the next few weeks the Japanese player could be heading back towards his career high Ranking.
Nishikori has produced some very good numbers on the hard courts with a strong 84% hold percentage backed up by an almost 28% break percentage. Those numbers are considerably up on 2018 when he was returning from injury, while the service numbers are about as good as Nishikori has ever produced on this surface.
I would expect Nishikori to have too much for Benoit Paire who is very talented, but also never seemingly too far away from hitting a run of losing a number of games in a row. The Frenchman is just 6-7 on the hard courts in 2019 and he is likely to find a little more difficult to hold serve and is perhaps not as clinical at breaking serve as his opponent in this one and that could be the difference maker and also give Nishikori the chance to cover a big number.
For all the talent Paire has, he is someone who has struggled when facing the top 20 Ranked players on the Tour. That is underlined by his numbers on the hard courts against those opponents in recent years where Paire has struggled to hold above 68% of his service games and has a sub 20% break percentage. It does have to be said that Nishikori's game is one that won't overwhelm Paire and he will have his chances in this one, but his two previous losses in Dubai have ended up being very one-sided and I think the Number 1 Seed in the draw covers in this First Round match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Any time a player wins a title you do have to wonder how much they are looking forward to spending another long week on the Tour, but I am not sure that is the case for Stefanos Tsitsipas. He won the title in Marseille on Sunday, but over the last year he has followed up other deep runs and successes in tournaments by producing some strong tennis in the following week.
It won't be lost on Tsitsipas that this is a big tournament being played in Dubai and he should have plenty of confidence to take into the event.
He is not someone I have been very keen on backing simply because he has a pretty average return game on the hard courts, but there is no denying Tsitsipas is a very talented player. In a lot of cases I would consider this to be far too big a number for someone struggling on the return to cover because you could need three more breaks of serve than drops of serve if you are going have a chance to get over the number.
On serve I don't really worry so much about the Greek youngster considering he has held 84% of service games on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and has moved that number up to near 90% in 2019 so far. Stefanos Tsitsipas is now facing Matthew Ebden whose return of serve has been letting him down so far and been the main reason he is 2-4 on the hard courts in 2019.
The Australian reached a career high in the World Rankings in October, but he looks certain to be moving down the Rankings in the the weeks and months ahead. This has been a level that has routinely been too much for Ebden to deal with and the 71% hold percentage on the hard courts in 2019 should mean even a limited returning game like the one Tsitsipas possesses could have more success than usual.
When Tsitsipas has faced those players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings the return game has been a little better than his overall numbers. It should mean he has some chances to break serve in enough games to cover this handicap and I think the youngster can back up the title win in Marseille by earning a spot in the Second Round in Dubai with a good looking win on the scoreboard.
This feeling is helped by Ebden having lost two matches to top 20 Ranked players in 2019 and holding just 64% of service games in those matches. I do note that both losses are against two very strong returners, but I think Tsitsipas can outperform his usual numbers here too.
Jaume Munar - 4.5 games v Pedro Sakamoto: Coming through the Qualifiers makes those players a potential threat to those in the main draw as they are used to the conditions in which they are playing. One of those making his way though to the main draw is Pedro Sakamoto who should get plenty of support from his home Brazilian crowd as he plays the first main draw match of his career.
It is a pretty late time for a player to reach this level like Sakamoto has, but he did reach a career high World Ranking earlier this month. That career high Ranking is Number 376 in the world and it goes to show the kind of gap in quality he is going to try and bridge this week in Sao Paulo.
Wins over Matteo Donati and Carlos Berlocq have to be respected especially as Sakamoto fully deserved to win both thanks to some strong serving.
He is going to need all that when he takes on Jaume Munar in the First Round of the main draw and the young Spaniard's run to the Quarter Final in Rio de Janeiro last week has seen him reach a career high World Ranking this week. That run is the third straight Quarter Final reached by Munar in the South American Golden Swing, but he has yet to get over that hump although it still means he is playing at a considerably higher level than his opponent in this one.
This is a big number for Munar to cover despite the wins he has put together over the last month on the clay courts. His serving stats are not quite as good as he would want, while Munar has perhaps underwhelmed a little bit when it comes to breaking serve.
Munar is still winning a strong number of return points, but he has perhaps not played the big points as well as he would have liked. It is going to be very important for him to attack the Sakamoto second serve and put the Brazilian under some pressure and Jaume Munar is also someone who looks to have the superior return game compared with his opponent in this one.
The unfamiliarity with Sakamoto could aid the lower Ranked player to keep the first set close in this one. There won't be much Munar can learn about him prior to this match beginning and I do think it will take a bit of time to know what is coming from the other side of the court.
However I would expect Munar's higher quality to then begin to shine through and I think that will happen in time for him to have a chance of covering this number. This handicap has not been an easy one for the Spaniard to cover and he has had some upset losses to players Ranked outside the top 100 which would worry me, but Sakamoto will have to play at a level he has not really shown in his career to win this match. He could serve his way into a position to keep it close, but I think Munar will wear him down and eventually find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve which should be critical when it comes to covering in this one.
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The South American Golden Swing has proved to be very important for Juan Ignacio Londero who has reached a career high World Ranking after winning his first main ATP Tour title. He could have perhaps hoped to have had better runs in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro after winning the title in Cordoba, but the draws could have been kinder and the same could be said here in Sao Paulo.
The First Round has pitted Paolo Lorenzi against Londero and the Italian has a 3-1 head to head advantage over him. The last two of those wins have come on the clay courts, although Lorenzi and Londero have not faced one another since 2015 and I do question the schedule Lorenzi has put together for himself in February.
The veteran took in the first clay court event this month in Cordoba, but Lorenzi then decided to play a couple of hard court events in the United States. It is a surprising decision from a player whose best successes have come on the clay courts and I do think it leaves Lorenzi vulnerable against Londero as he returns to this surface.
In the last couple of years there have been signs of decline from Lorenzi on the clay courts and in 2019 he is 1-2 having held 72% of his service games and broken in just 18% of the return games played. Compare that to Londero who has held at 80% and broken at 33% on the clay courts in 2019 and won the title in Cordoba and I do endorse the Argentinian being set as the favourite in this First Round match.
I do have to respect Lorenzi as being someone who can make life very difficult for players on the clay courts when he is feeling at his best. He should be confident after putting some wins together on the hard courts over the last couple of weeks too and I don't anticipate the change in surface to affect the veteran who has enjoyed playing on the clay courts throughout his career.
However I can't ignore the signs of decline of his ability on this surface and Juan Ignacio Londero has been playing well enough to put Lorenzi under pressure. I would not be that surprised if we see three sets to separate the players, but Londero looks like he has the edge both on the return and the serve and he can win this match and cover the number to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Danielle Collins @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)
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