Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 9-11)

The Premier League is going on a two week break following this round of fixtures, but there are some big games to be played over the weekend before the FA Cup Fifth Round takes over next weekend.

Over the last seven days it has been all change at the top of the Premier League as Manchester City have put back to back wins together at a time when Liverpool have just faltered. I am not suggesting Liverpool have 'choked' like so many on social media are quick to state, but they have simply not played well enough to win their last couple of games.

And Liverpool remain in control of the title knowing they will win the Premier League if they win all of their remaining games.

That's obviously a tall task for any team, but I think it has almost been lost in the headlines that Liverpool are still in control of their own destiny. Both them and Manchester City and have some tough obstacles to overcome, but it does feel like a big week for Liverpool to reclaim some lost momentum ahead of two big games to come later this month against Bayern Munich and Manchester United.

The top four race is heating up, while the cat will be amongst the pigeons as far as the relegation battle goes if Cardiff City can win at Southampton this Saturday.

Fantasy Football is back for another round too.

The good last week was highlighting Eden Hazard, Marcus Rashford, Raul Jimenez and especially Sergio Aguero as the key players with those four combining for eight goals across the board.

The bad had to be picking Oumar Niasse instead of Bobby Reid to be the key player for Cardiff City.

And I had some ugly picks too as Fernando Llorente didn't start and Aleksander Mitrovic missed a good chance in Fulham's loss at Crystal Palace.

It could have been worse, I could have identified Leroy Sane who picked up the massive one point across two matches in Manchester City's Double Gameweek.


Fulham v Manchester United Pick: The Premier League weekend gets underway from Craven Cottage on Saturday afternoon and this is a big game for both Fulham and Manchester United as they bid to achieve their goals for the season.

We are almost getting to the last chance saloon for Fulham who have found themselves 7 points behind Burnley outside of the bottom three and with games running out. Home form is crucial for Fulham's chances of escaping the drop, but the fans remain optimistic that they can produce a miracle like they did under Roy Hodgson back in the 2007/08 season.

However it is not easy to see how that happens when you consider the amount of goals Fulham have been conceding. Confidence is clearly sapped and the 2-0 defeat at Crystal Palace means they have conceded at least twice in 6 straight games in all competitions including the last 3 at Craven Cottage.

Now they face a Manchester United team who have been flying in recent weeks and managed to close to just 2 points off the Champions League spots under the guidance of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. At times they have managed to ride their luck, especially in the away wins at Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City, but confidence is a crucial part of any team and this Manchester United squad believe they are going to win games no matter what happens in the course of ninety minutes.

There may be changes to the Manchester United starting eleven to freshen things up, but it is hard to see them slipping up here. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be reminding his players what can happen in the Premier League and the lessons learnt from the 2-2 home draw with Burnley could be very important to make sure complacency does not set in here.

Bigger fixtures are coming up for Manchester United, but they can stay on track for their top four places and I think they can win a game featuring two or more goals on Saturday in West London.

Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- I am going with the Frenchman because I think Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to make changes and he looks a nailed on starter. I have Marcus Rashford too, but I would not be surprise if the front three is Juan Mata, Romelu Lukaku and Anthony Martial in this fixture with the PSG game in mind.

Alternative: Anthony Martial- didn't start at Leicester City and could come in to pose a threat from the left of the front three.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: This is not an easy game to get a read on in the Premier League this weekend as both Crystal Palace and West Ham United can blow hot and cold on any given day.

The edge has to be given to Crystal Palace with the game being hosted by them, but the other side of the coin is the poor record at Selhurst Park against West Ham United. The Eagles have won 1 of their last 6 at home against West Ham United and none of the last 4, while the 2-2 draw between the clubs last season snapped a run of 3 consecutive wins for the visitor.

Crystal Palace look to have rounded into some good form ahead of this fixture though and they have also started scoring more goals. Defensively they have been pretty good at home all season and I do think they are the more likely winners in this one.

You just don't know what you are going to get from West Ham United though who can be brilliant in a win over Arsenal and draw with Liverpool but also lose 4-2 at the bottom club in League One between those games. The away form has been rancid of late as The Hammers have lost 4 straight on their travels in all competitions and conceded at least twice in each of those defeats.

Goals have been a problem for them too as they have not scored in their last 3 away Premier League games and it does feel like the home team can snap the poor recent history against this opponent.

A lack of goals in the Crystal Palace ranks and the concerns surrounding that are eased with the return of Wilfried Zaha and the options of Andros Townsend, Christian Benteke and Michy Batshuayi around him. The defensive issues West Ham United have had away from home can be highlighted here and Crystal Palace can use a strong defensive effort to win this one as they look for a fourth clean sheet in their last 5 at Selhurst Park.

The recent history can't be ignored completely so I will recommend Crystal Palace on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Wilfried Zaha- back from suspension and about to be banned for one more game, but can sign off with a big performance for Crystal Palace. The return of Christian Benteke and arrival of Michy Batshuayi should mean more spaces for Zaha to attack.

Alternative: Felipe Anderson- yes I fancy Crystal Palace to win, but West Ham United have a good record here and Anderson could be the key to any success they have this weekend.


Huddersfield Town v Arsenal Pick: At some point you have to think Huddersfield Town are going to have a bit of luck and get back on the scoreboard, but any hopes of survival in the Premier League look to be long gone.

Jan Siewert will continue to talk a good game, but I think the appointment has been made to continue the work David Wagner did for Huddersfield Town and make sure there is a continuity that could lead to a promotion chase next season. The new manager has to keep talking about fighting and being mathematically alive, but Huddersfield Town are 13 points behind Burnley in 17th place and have earned just 11 points from 25 League games played.

The best thing I can say for Huddersfield Town is they may get on the scoreboard in this one against an Arsenal defence that has been poor to say the least. Arsenal have had just a single clean sheet from their last 9 Premier League games overall, while they have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home in the League all season and not since beating Huddersfield Town 0-1 on the last day of last season.

Arsenal do have plenty of quality going the other way though and I think that will be the danger to Huddersfield Town whose open style can suit the top clubs. They did show toughness in a 1-0 loss at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season, but the 5-0 defeat at Chelsea last weekend has to have knocked some of the stuffing out of the players.

To be fair to Huddersfield Town they have not suffered too many blow out losses and that may be the case when they face Arsenal on Saturday. They can challenge their visitors who have been in poor form away from home although ultimately I think Huddersfield Town may come up short again when it is all said and done.

The spreads and prices are about right for an Arsenal win when you consider how much behind the rest of the League Huddersfield Town have looked, so it is hard to find an angle. The best way to back Arsenal may be to look for them to win by either a one or two goal margin which can pay out at close to double the stake.

Only Chelsea and Manchester City have won by more than a two goal margin at Huddersfield Town this season, while Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool won by two and one goal margins respectively. Backing Arsenal to do something similar may be the best play from this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- there are some doubts about Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's health and that may mean he is left out and the Frenchman can be the main threat for Arsenal.

Alternative: Aaron Mooy- he is the key for Huddersfield Town if they are ever going to score another Premier League goal. Won't face too many weaker defences than the Arsenal one.


Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: In the new world of social media you tend to get a lot of extreme reactions to sporting events and the Premier League title race is proving to be no different.

Just a few days after it was suggested Manchester City had 'bottled' the title defence following a loss at Newcastle United, Liverpool have now 'choked' following back to back draws against Leicester City and West Ham United.

Instead of being potentially as many as 7 points clear of Manchester City, Liverpool go into this weekend behind the Champions albeit having played one game less. I think it would be foolish to suggest there will be no nerves in the Liverpool squad, but I just believe they have had two difficult fixtures and not performed to the level they can in those games.

As long as the fans don't head to Anfield with a nervous disposition, the players should be able to produce a much better performance against a Bournemouth team who have not enjoyed playing away from the Vitality Stadium. You do feel Liverpool will need an early goal to just ease any tensions at Anfield, but I expect them to have chances against Bournemouth who were beaten 2-0 at Cardiff City last weekend meaning they have conceded two or more goals in 7 straight away Premier League games and lost each one.

In that time Bournemouth have lost 3-1 at Manchester City, 5-0 at Tottenham Hotspur and 4-1 at Manchester United. The recent 4-0 win over Chelsea at home will give them some confidence, but Bournemouth can't ignore those heavy away defeats at the top six clubs over the last two months and the goals being conceded suggest Liverpool can get their title bid back on track here.

Liverpool have looked a little more vulnerable defensively, but Bournemouth are missing both David Brooks and Callum Wilson and that does take away a real threat they would have brought to Anfield. Mohamed Salah hasn't scored in his last couple of games, but he has scored five in three games against Bournemouth for Liverpool including a hat-trick earlier this season which suggests he could be the key for the home team again.

I did back Crystal Palace and Leicester City to keep things close with Liverpool in the last couple of games at Anfield and Bournemouth are being given the same head-start. However they have lost their last 6 away Premier League games by two or more goals and the heavy losses at the top six clubs I have mentioned in a paragraph above means I will back Liverpool to win by a wide enough margin to cover the Asian Handicap on offer.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- the abuse he received at the London Stadium was outrageous, but the home fans can give him the love to inspire Liverpool to a win. Five goals in three previous games against Bournemouth makes him hard to ignore as Captain material too.

Alternative: Sadio Mane- has scored in the last three Liverpool games and has proven to be a streaky scorer throughout his career.


Southampton v Cardiff City Pick: Two teams very much involved in the relegation fight will meet on Saturday at St Mary's and I have to expect this will be a game filled with tension knowing how important the three points are to both Southampton and Cardiff City.

Two places and two points separate these clubs, but there are only 13 games left to be played so you cannot discount the importance for the two teams to try and earn the points.

Southampton have been much improved under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they still struggle to score enough goals and defensively it has still been a work in progress. For Cardiff City every time they have looked about to slump into a deep hole they have managed to produce a big result like they did last weekend to beat Bournemouth at home once a 5 point gap to safety had opened up in the early Saturday games.

The away form of Cardiff City has to be a concern though and I do think it puts a lot of pressure on them to find the points they need in front of their own fans. They have lost 3 straight away games since beating Leicester City and the worst of those was the capitulation at Newcastle United who are another team just a couple of points clear of The Bluebirds in the League table.

I don't think there will be much between these teams and the first goal could be crucial. Tellingly Southampton have managed to score that in 5 of their last 7 Premier League games at home and Cardiff City have conceded first in 7 of their last 9 away League games.

However I am not sure we are going to get a really high-scoring game with the two teams likely going to focus on making sure they don't give too much away. My edge does go to Southampton though and I will back them to win a game featuring three or fewer goals.

Fantasy Star: Nathan Redmond- may be the biggest attacking threat for Southampton now that Danny Ings has been ruled out with an injury.

Alternative: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg- has proven to be a key man for Mark Hughes and Ralph Hasenhuttl and another who can get forward as a cheap option from midfield.


Watford v Everton Pick: After the tug of war Watford and Everton had over Marco Silva around fifteen months ago you have to imagine the majority of Watford fans are much happier than their counterparts at Everton with the way things have worked out.

Silva didn't get to join Everton immediately, but was sacked by Watford thirteen months ago and replaced by Javi Gracia. The new man has taken Watford from strength to strength and is about to guide them into their best League finish since the 1986/87 season when Graham Taylor was concluding his final season in his first stint as manager of the club.

At the same time Marco Silva has taken over as manager of Everton but this has been a tough season for him and fans are beginning to question whether he is the right man for the job. A decent start has been replaced by a poor run of 7 losses in 10 League games and Everton are struggling for the 7th place finish in the Premier League which would have been the minimum of requirements.

Injuries to some key players in the Watford squad is a concern, but Everton were in a tough game on Wednesday and that may even things out. Even then Watford look short for a team who have won 1 of their last 6 Premier League games at home and instead I am going to look at the total goals market.

Both teams have quality in the final third which should see them cause the other some real problems defensively. That was evident in the 2-2 draw earlier this season between the teams and I would not be surprised if both teams were to score in this one.

The points on offer should be valuable enough to think neither manager will settle for a share of the spoils and I can see these teams matching what they did in the game at Goodison Park and that is sharing out at least three goals.

At the price I think that is slightly more attractive than backing either team on the Asian Handicap in what could be a game decided by an error or a moment of magic either way.

Fantasy Star: Troy Deeney- had a lot to say for himself in the media criticising Marco Silva and can back up the talk on the field against a vulnerable Everton defence.

Alternative: Richarlison- not in great form, but should be fresh and will want to show something to his former club.


Brighton v Burnley Pick: This has to be far from the most appealing Saturday Night Football game that is going to be broadcast between now and the end of the season but for Brighton and Burnley it is a hugely important game.

Both clubs are involved in a developing relegation battle and the points on the line could be vital when all is said and done later in the season.

If you're looking for goals the last eighteen months suggests this is not the ground to be visiting this weekend. Since Brighton were promoted to the Premier League the 3 League games between these teams have produced a grand total of a single goal and I do think chances are going to be few and far between.

Brighton have not scored in their last 3 home games in all competitions which is a massive concern for Chris Hughton as his team perhaps begin to get pulled back into a relegation scrap. They are now facing a Burnley team who have gone back to basics in being hard to break down and who will take the limited chances that come their way to earn points.

All credit has to be given to Sean Dyche who has overseen a 6 game unbeaten run in the Premier League for Burnley and whose side have only conceded more than once in 1 of those games. That came in the 2-2 draw at Old Trafford as Manchester United scored twice in the last few minutes to salvage a point, but the performances Burnley have produced of late makes them a tough team to oppose.

Brighton also had the misfortune of playing a tough FA Cup Replay that went to Extra Time on Wednesday and there could be one or two tired bodies in there. A single goal could be enough for either team to win this game, but I feel the edge has to be given to Burnley to avoid a defeat here as they have had a week to prepare for the fixture and been in the better run of form.

The visitors have scored in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and one goal may be enough to at least earn another point and I will back Burnley with the start on the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Shane Duffy- Brighton have defended well enough at home with one goal conceded in three Premier League games at the Amex Stadium. Shane Duffy should be rested and a threat from set pieces.

Alternative: James Tarkowski- Burnley are looking strong defensively during a 6 League game unbeaten run. Have kept 3 clean sheets in a row versus Brighton.


Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City Pick: I've read and heard some of the nonsense that has been said about Mauricio Pochettino over the last couple of weeks and I find it staggering some think he is 'underachieving' with Tottenham Hotspur.

For starters I think a number of the players he has are over-rated and a club that has spent nothing in two transfer windows should not be 5 points behind Manchester City and Liverpool with just 13 League games left to play.

They are firmly in control of finishing with a Champions League place and while silverware is always a bonus, I don't think Pochettino could be considered more successful if Tottenham Hotspur won the League Cup and finished 5th in the Premier League table.

It really baffles me and the results being churned out by the team without Dele Alli and Harry Kane should see the manager earning more respect than he seems to get from some quarters. Yes Tottenham Hotspur have needed late goals to keep the wins coming, but they have got them and they are arguably the most in-form team of the top six solely based on Premier League results.

Keeping that going against Leicester City won't be easy with the way the latter have been playing. The losses are piling up, but Leicester City were unlucky to lose to Wolves and Manchester United and could have won at Liverpool which suggests they are playing better than the results suggest.

I expect Leicester City to cause problems for Tottenham Hotspur in this one with their counter attacking ability and pace in the final third an issue for the home team to deal with. They have also enjoyed playing Tottenham Hotspur in recent years and have a pretty good record against them when visiting North London.

Both teams have managed to find the net in the last couple of Leicester City away games in the Premier League and I do think they are good for a goal here. They have scored at Old Trafford, the Emirates Stadium, Stamford Bridge and Anfield in the Premier League and Tottenham Hotspur have been far from watertight at the back.

However Spurs are scoring goals despite the absence of Harry Kane and they should be able to pressure a couple of mistakes out of the Leicester City defence too. With Heung-Min Son bang in form, I would be surprised if this selection is scuppered because Tottenham Hotspur have failed to score for only the second time in 12 games at Wembley Stadium in all competitions.

My feeling is that Tottenham Hotspur may come away with the narrow win as they continue to find a way to keep the points building up, but my selection is both teams will score in this live Sunday offering.

Fantasy Star: Heung-Min Son- it sounds like Harry Kane and Dele Alli could return sooner than expected, but for now Heung-Min Son continues to carry Tottenham Hotspur. Has scored in back to back games since returning from the Asian Cup.

Alternative: Jamie Vardy- the counter attack should be open for Leicester City and Jamie Vardy could be main beneficiary despite scoring one goal in his last seven League games. Scored three goals against Spurs last season including two at Wembley Stadium.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The second of the live games to be played on Sunday comes from the Etihad Stadium as two of the top four teams in the Premier League meet with an important three points on the line.

Depending on results on Saturday, Chelsea may not even be in the top four at kick off in this fixture and Maurizio Sarri never seems too far away from being put under pressure. The 5-0 win over Huddersfield Town was a relief for the manager, but this is a much more difficult challenge for a Chelsea team who have lost 3 straight away games in all competitions without scoring a goal.

The way they capitulated in the second half against Bournemouth has to be a real concern and I do worry for Chelsea in the sense that they are a team who struggle to bounce back when things turn against them within a game. The same happened in the first half at Arsenal three weeks ago as Chelsea slumbered their way into a big hole and never really looked like digging themselves out of it.

Falling behind against Manchester City has not exactly been a death knell for teams of late after Newcastle United and Arsenal both recovered from conceding inside the first minute to level the game. However this is a team that should dominate the ball and if Chelsea start feeling sorry for themselves it could turn out to be a very long afternoon for them at the Etihad Stadium.

Being back on top of the Premier League has to give the Manchester City players a confidence boost and I can see them putting a strong 20 minute period together at to some point in this fixture to put Chelsea to the sword. Pep Guardiola won't underestimate Chelsea having seen his team lose at Stamford Bridge in December, but Manchester City can lay down a marker for the League Cup Final which is played later this month and I will back them to win this one by a comfortable margin.

Manchester City have scored at least twice in 16 straight games at home in all competitions and that should be enough for them to earn the victory. If Chelsea play as they did at Arsenal and Bournemouth then I think it could be a very tough fixture for them and Manchester City should have the chances to win by two or more goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- hat-trick in his last game at the Etihad Stadium and remains the striker in the best form for Manchester City. Being pushed by Gabriel Jesus but I expect Aguero to lead the line for the home team.

Alternative: Bernardo Silva- scored the winner against Chelsea last season in the corresponding fixture and remains a key man for Pep Guardiola. Most secure Fantasy Pick in the Manchester City midfield perhaps?


Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: Two years to the day Wolves hosted Newcastle United in the Championship and an Aleksander Mitrovic goal helped The Magpies win 0-1 on their way to the title and a return to the Premier League.

They earned 94 points that season as they bounced back from relegation at the first attempt and in the same campaign Wolves finished 15th with just 58 points and a 16-10-20 record.

Things changed for Wolves that summer and the investment made into the club has seen them attract some real quality that has seen them promoted to the Premier League under Nuno Espirito Santo. This season Wolves are showing they can be considered best of the rest outside of the top six in the Premier League while they are also enjoying a FA Cup run that has seen them move through to the Fifth Round.

Newcastle United have not made the same investment in that time and they have been a team that has struggled in the bottom half of the Premier League since returning to the top flight. Even breaking their record transfer fee in the January transfer window won't have impressed that many people and Newcastle United have been overtaken by the likes of Wolves who are looking much further up the League table.

One factor that makes Newcastle United dangerous is the manager Rafa Benitez who knows how to organise his teams to frustrate opponents. They have needed to ride their luck at times in recent games, but that is down to the level of quality of players that Newcastle United have rather than the tactics and it isn't hard to work out what they will look to do here.

Limiting space and trying to catch Wolves on the counter attack will be the game plan and to be fair it is something that the likes of Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have used to beat the home team at Molineux. Watford have also won here so Wolves do look plenty short to beat Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, although I have to say I have been impressed with the attacking qualities they have shown in recent games.

Goals have been flowing for Wolves and I think that confidence will make the difference in what could be a tight game. Newcastle United have not been as strong away from St James' Park in recent games in the Premier League and I think Wolves will work their way to breaking down their visitors and winning this game.

It still doesn't mean they are a great price outright, but backing Wolves to continue the scoring output may just be the boost this pick needs. They have scored at least two goals in 4 straight games at home in all competitions and Wolves have won all of those. In fact Wolves have won 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 home Premier League games and in each win they have needed to score at least two goals to secure it and I expect that to be the case this Monday too.

Newcastle United might not be an offensive powerhouse, but they have scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in the League so Wolves may need two goals if they are going to win this and that is what I will look for them to do.

Fantasy Star: Diogo Jota- had a knock in another impressive performance for Wolves at Everton, but should be ready for this one. Has three goals and two assists in last three home League games and scored at St James' Park.

Alternative: Matt Ritchie- Wolves are in great form, but if Newcastle United are going to cause an upset, Matt Ritchie's set pieces and final ball could be a huge reason for it.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Arsenal to Win by One or Two Goals @ 1.97 Bet Victor
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred
Southampton & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Fred
Watford-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Tottenham Hotspur-Leicester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Ladbrokes
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Fred