Tennis Picks 2019 (February 25th)

The Tennis Tour is a long one for the players but it can also feel like a long one when it comes to making Picks from week to week.

I honestly don't know anyone who can say with a straight face that they can pick winner after winner in each passing week so you have to expect there are going to be some tough times and the first one I suffered through in the 2019 season took place last week.

I had a horrible time picking the WTA Dubai matches, while I didn't have a lot more success anywhere else in what turned into a poor week. After the Friday action I was convinced the best policy was to take the weekend to reset and try and get back on the horse on Monday.

There is another stop in Dubai this week as the ATP players take in a tournament for the week with the tournament here considered an ATP 500 one. That means Roger Federer is back on the court after his surprise loss at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round, but he is not the top Seed with that place taken by Kei Nishikori.

We have another ATP 500 event being played in Acapulco which is headed up by Rafael Nadal, while the only WTA event being played this week takes place at the same venue.

Finally the Golden Swing in South America comes to a close this week with a stop in Sao Paulo.

After this the entire Tour will shift attention to the two big North American events that are played in March beginning with Indian Wells and moving through to Miami. That will conclude the hard court season until July and the build towards the French Open will begin in April which is always a time I love watching tennis even more than normal.


The Tennis Picks from the Acapulco event will be added to the thread on Monday with the order of play to be released at some point during Sunday evening. Before that I have had a look at the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo and you can see my Picks below as I look to get this week off to a positive start after the disappointment of last week.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: One of the players on the Tour that I don't like opposing too much is Damir Dzumhur and the main reason for that is there is clearly a talented player there. When he is feeling his best tennis he can be very tough to beat, but I think this spread is at least one game shorter than it should be when he faces Marton Fucsovics in the First Round at the ATP Dubai tournament.

The conditions in Dubai tend to play a bit faster than the other hard courts on the Tour which is always something you want to consider when making picks from this tournament. We will know more about the court is playing after a couple of days here, but I think a faster court might not be too the liking of either of these players which should negate the factor.

Over the last thirteen months Dzumhur has been under some pressure on the hard courts because his serve has been a weakness. So far in 2019 Dzumhur is holding just 52% of the service games he has played on the hard courts and that means he is under immense pressure to get his return game working way above the level you can really expect from anyone on the Tour.

That pressure to break back and stay in matches may be the reason Dzumhur has only broken in just under 17% of return games despite the return being a strength for him. His numbers on that side of his tennis are someway down on 2018, but Dzumhur has more to offer although we may not see that completely in this one against a player who has reached one Final on the hard courts already in 2019.

The one thing Marton Fucsovics has done very well in 2019 on this surface is beat the players he is expected to beat. He might have an 8-5 record on the hard courts, but Fucsovics is 7-1 against players Ranked outside the top 20 and his numbers have backed that up with especially the serve where Fucsovics has held at a much higher rate when facing those outside the elite of the Tour.

These two players met in Shanghai at the back end of the 2018 season and it was the Fucsovics serve which proved to be the difference maker. I think that may be the case here too and I think he can cover a number I believe is one short of where it should be at the least.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The ATP Dubai tournament has been one that the top names have been happy to play as it covers the ATP 500 commitment they need to fulfil for their World Rankings and the financial rewards have made it worthwhile for them. Over the years we have had some of the very best take the title home in Dubai and this year the headline player on the ATP Tour heading to the tournament is Roger Federer.

He is scheduled to play on Monday in the opening evening session of the tournament and the Number 2 Seed should be able to make his way through to the Second Round without too many difficulties.

Roger Federer faces his friend Philipp Kohlschreiber and the two veterans will be very much aware of what the other brings to the court. This is going to be their fourteenth professional match against each other and it is Federer who has won the previous thirteen matches including all seven played on the hard courts.

The last of those of matches came a little over twelve months ago and while Federer has remained pretty steady on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber is clearly a declining force. It is the return numbers that have really shown that in the last few years on the hard courts, but Kohlschreiber may feel he can serve his way into a competitive match.

So far in 2019 Kohlschreiber has held 89% of his service games and it has to be noted that Federer's return game let him down at the Australian Open. While he is still playing at a very high level, Federer's return has just shown signs of decline too in each of the last three years and I do wonder if he can turn that around at this stage of his career.

Roger Federer's serve is still a huge weapon for him though and I think that can be used to pressure Kohlschreiber in this one. It is a huge number for him to cover when you think of the way he was returning in Melbourne, especially if Kohlschreiber is at his best on that side of his tennis, but the match up is a good one for Federer and I think the odds against quote for him to cover this number has to be worth considering.

In their matches against one another on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber has not had a lot of success returning the Federer serve. He did serve very well to get out of a couple of jams when they played in Rotterdam in February 2018, but I think Kohlschreiber may just feel the pressure against someone who has broken him in 1/4 return games on the hard courts in their seven matches on this surface.

That could lead to the breaks of serve Federer needs to cover a big number and I will look for the former World Number 1 to get this week off to an impressive start.


Roberto Carballas Baena v Maximilian Marterer: The layers are having a hard time separating these two players in the opening Round of the ATP Sao Paolo tournament which begins the main draw action on Monday.

Both Roberto Carballas Baena and Maximilian Marterer have taken in the South American Golden Swing but neither has been able to make the kind of impact they would have liked. At least Carballas Baena has reached the Quarter Final in one of the three events that have been played over the last month, which is considerably better than any run Marterer has been able to produce.

It is not easy to produce the big serving numbers on the clay courts as it can be on the hard courts, but both Carballas Baena and Marterer have looked after that side of their game well enough. The slight edge has to be given to the lefty serve of Marterer and I think that is why the layers believe this could be a tough match to predict because Carballas Baena has been having some difficulty in getting through his service games over the last month.

The Spaniard has still held almost 75% of his service games, but there is room for improvement on that front. However I am giving him more chance of winning this match because of the return of serve where Carballas Baena has had more success than Marterer on the clay.

Over the last twelve months Marterer is only breaking at a little under 19% of return games played on the clay courts and that makes it tough to believe in him on this surface where holding serve can be so difficult. If Marterer falls behind it is tougher to think he can recover compared with Carballas Baena whose break percentage is at 30% over the same time period.

I won't be surprised at all if we need to see the full three sets to determine which of these players is going to move through to the Second Round. However I think Carballas Baena's return game coupled with more wins produced over the last month compared with Marterer could prove to be the difference on the day in what is a pick 'em contest.

This will be the fifth meeting between Carballas Baena and Marterer with all four previous matches played on the clay courts. Those have been split 2-2, but the two wins for the Spaniard have been much more convincing than Marterer's including their last match which was played in May 2018. It is Carballas Baena who has held at 70% compared with Marterer's 62% in those previous matches and I think the Spaniard can take the lead in their professional head to head.


Taro Daniel - 1.5 games v Marco Trungelliti: One of the most memorable images of the French Open last year had to be the post Marco Trungelliti put onto his social media pages showing him travelling in a car between his mother and grandmother from Barcelona to Paris. A late 'Lucky Loser' spot had opened up for Trungelliti into the main draw at the second Grand Slam of the 2018 season, but he had left the site and had to make the journey back to Paris as he highlighted the life of those lower down the World Rankings.

A win in the First Round only added to the story, but Trungelliti has not really made a consistent impact at the higher levels of the Tour. The Argentinian has yet to crack the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he should be comfortable on the clay courts with the majority of his time spent on the surface in 2018.

Those matches have mainly come at the Challenger level and Trungelliti has yet to have any success on this South American Golden Swing having lost both matches played in Qualifiers over the last month. It has been a real struggle for Trungelliti when it comes to holding his serve, but the bigger issue is the 5% break percentage he has through those two matches where he has won a total of thirteen games in four sets.

His opponent Taro Daniel has not exactly been pulling up too many trees of his own, but it did need eventual Rio de Janeiro Champion to knock him out in the Second Round last week. While he has yet to really get things going in 2019 on the clay courts, Daniel has been decent on the surface in recent years and I think he can edge out Trungelliti.

The numbers do suggest this could be a close match and the layers tend to agree, but I think Daniel and Trungelliti tend to operate at different levels. Taro Daniel has been very strong when he has faced opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings on the clay courts while Trungelliti does not play too many opponents inside the top 100.

You have to respect the fact that Marco Trungelliti will be very comfortable on the clay courts, but Daniel can edge him out in this one and I will back the latter to cover the games in this one too.

MY PICKS: Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taro Daniel - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 38.58 Units (363 Units Staked, + 10.63% Yield)