Tennis Picks 2019 (February 14th)

On Valentine's Day we move into the Second Round of the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Doha event will be into the Quarter Final Round as those tournaments in the Middle East finish on Saturday rather than Sunday,

It has been a busier week than expected with a number of matches fitting the criteria I have just adjusted over the last nine months and the results have been very rewarding in that time. This time twelve months ago it was another season that had started poorly after back to back poor seasons making Tennis Picks.

Prior to that I had a number of winning years in succession, but I hadn't made the adjustments while things were going well and was punished for it. Taking the time away from making Picks last March was a key moment for me to evolve and the results came after that as I went through a couple of months of trial and error with the selections.

This has been another strong week and I have to be pleased that I have had all winning weeks to open the 2019 season after a very good end to 2018 made sure that season ended with a positive record. There is still some work to do to make sure this week follows suit, although I do recognise in a long season there are going to be some downward moments and trying to avoid a prolonged negative run is always the key in an eleven month season.


The Second Round matches in the ATP events being played this week tend to be split over Wednesday and Thursday so the the rest of the Quarter Final line up will be put together during the course of the day. In Doha the WTA event will have the Quarter Final matches set to be played on Thursday after a very busy start to the week and you can read my analysis of some of the Picks and see the full selection from the day below.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: Any time a player is about to play their first match on a new surface you do have to wonder how they are going to feel about making the adjustment from one surface to another and whether they will be comfortable doing that. For someone like Dominic Thiem I have to believe the move off the hard courts and onto the clay courts is a time that he really looks forward to and to the extent that he would rather play on the Golden Swing in South America than the indoor hard court tournaments that take place in Europe.

The Austrian has actually won his first clay court event played in each of the last three seasons and that includes two titles in Buenos Aires so I am not going to worry about Thiem too much. Outside of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal I think Thiem has been the best clay courter in the world for the last couple of years and he is a very tough customer to knock off on this surface.

On the clay most people do have their service numbers knocked, but Thiem has improved his hold percentage on the surface in each of the last three seasons. It has always been relatively strong to be honest, but in 2018 he ticked that percentage up to 85% from just under 84% and Thiem is unlikely to be threatened too much by the return of Maximilian Marterer.

Marterer has won a match in the main draw in Buenos Aires having lost in the First Round in Cordoba and he really came to the fore with his run to the French Open Fourth Round last year before he was beaten in straight sets by Rafael Nadal. The German has played his best tennis on the clay courts but his numbers show a hold percentage that is significantly down on what Thiem has produced and many of those matches to influence those numbers have come below the main ATP level.

The real difference between the two players has been the pressure they have been able to exert from the return of serve. Marterer has a break percentage of sub-20%, but Thiem is right up there with some of the most impactful returners on the clay courts as he has broken serve at 30% over the last two years as he has moved to a level behind the elite clay courters like Nadal and Djokovic.

It also has not be noted that Marterer's hold number falls to 68% on the clay courts when he has faced top 50 Ranked opponents and that is despite coming away with a 3-5 record from those eight career matches. I expect Dominic Thiem to need a little time to remind him of the feel of being on a clay court, but once he does that I think the return of serve is going to be the key for him to cover a big number against an opponent who simply may not offer enough resistance to Thiem's own serve to stay with him.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This was never going to be a match in which I was going to be backing someone because I thought the layers would potentially over-rate Pablo Cuevas from the number I had for him. Imagine my surprise to see that the Uruguayan is actually laying fewer games than I had predicted for this Second Round match in Buenos Aires and he has an excellent chance of beating Joao Sousa on Thursday.

It is something of a surprise to see Sousa over in South America for the clay court swing considering he has a pretty decent indoor hard court record. Usually this Golden Swing has not been a part of his schedule although he did take it in in 2017 when reaching the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and then the Semi Final in Sao Paolo.

Joao Sousa has beaten the Cordoba Champion in the First Round which will give him a boost in confidence, but the level goes up another notch here when you have to imagine Juan Ignacio Londero was perhaps a little fatigued physically and emotionally. The Portuguese player does produce some steady numbers on the clay courts, but he will need to be better than that to down Cuevas who loves playing on the South American clay courts.

He reached the Semi Final in Cordoba last week before having to play two matches in one day to make the Final and it was not a big surprise that Cuevas was unable to beat Guido Pella who had been resting. However he produced a solid week there and his record on the clay courts shows a player who has a strong serve and can do enough on the return to beat those players further down the Rankings.

The Cuevas serve has been working very effectively in the small sample of 2019 matches, but in general he has a hold percentage in the low-80s in recent seasons compared with Sousa's in the mid-70s. It might not look a big difference but tennis is all about very small margins and with a similar level of returns I do think Cuevas could have easily been favoured to cover at least one more game in this handicap.

Some will point to Sousa's 3-2 lead on the head to head, but their only two matches on the clay courts have both resulted in wins for Cuevas. In both of those clay court matches Cuevas has dominated with a 94% hold advantage compared with Sousa's 50% mark although those were played in 2014 and 2017.

Both were in Europe though where Cuevas has not been as comfortable as he has on his own continent and I think he is going to be the stronger player in this one. The serving should give him the advantage through much of the match and he can cover this number in a win over a solid, but not spectacular clay courter in Joao Sousa.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: The early weeks of the 2019 season have been all or nothing from Angelique Kerber on the hard courts. She has either won her matches very easily or she has been beaten without putting up much of a fight and that continued in her opening match in Doha when Kerber was able to beat Anett Kontaveit 6-1, 7-6.

The German now has a 5-2 record on the hard courts in 2019 and all five wins have come by a margin of five or more games while both losses have seen Kerber fail to win more than five games.

Over the years Kerber has produced some of her best tennis on the hard courts, but she is a player whose serve can be vulnerable which leaves her open to the heavy losses she has suffered on the surface. What has kept Kerber very competitive is her returning ability and that is going to be key for her when she faces Barbora Strycova in this Quarter Final.

Angelique Kerber has dominated Strycova in their head to head matches and she has won all six matches played on the hard courts. The last of those came twelve months ago in Dubai and Kerber has dominated the Strycova serve in those previous games which has put her in a position to not only win matches, but win matches by a convincing margin.

The opening of the 2019 season has been mixed for Strycova on the hard courts in terms of results and you can't read a lot into her numbers because of the way her draws have panned out. Here in Doha she has beaten a local player who received a Wild Card into the main draw and then was victorious over Anna Blinkova in three sets despite winning both of her sets without losing a game.

Erratic form has been a feature of Barbora Strycova's play since she reached her best World Ranking of Number 16 a little over two years ago. Last year she had a mixed record on the hard courts as Strycova struggled to get enough out of her return of serve and I think that could be a potential problem for her in this one despite facing a relatively weak serve from Kerber.

Barbora Strycova also had a poor 0-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. In those matches her numbers took a significant decline in terms of percentage of points won behind the first serve, second serve and return of serve and I do think Kerber is going to be the player who finds more break points in this Quarter Final.

With the record that Strycova has against Kerber I think the latter is going to be good enough to cover this number in a victory.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-4, + 12.60 Units (30 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)