It has already been confirmed that the WTA Finals will be reduced to five days and that indicates that the rumoured format of inviting the top 16 into the end of year Championship and playing a Knock Out tournament is the plan.
This was the original format for the WTA Finals, but the Group Stage feels like a more unique end to the season, even if some players cannot quite get their head around a pretty simple situation.
Yes, some permutations can get a little funky, but in the main it is pretty straight-forward and also feels like a stronger way to sell tickets knowing the top players will all be guaranteed at least three matches. The Knock Out format used all year is not likely to have the same impact, but the WTA Tour is obviously being urged to make some changes and that is the direction they are choosing to travel.
The opening four days could not have gone much better for the Tennis Picks thanks to two solid returns on Day 4.
Group 1 is going to be played to a conclusion on Thursday with two Semi Final spots to be decided over the next two days in Indian Wells.
Picks can be read below and there is a link that can be used to join the selections, which will result in a few beers for the writer. You can follow that through here and then onto the Day 5 selections.
Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: This is the kind of handicap number that Coco Gauff will struggle to cover considering her tendency to get dragged into tough matches.
Some of that is down to the poor service numbers that can be produced and it was partly to blame for the straight sets loss to Linda Noskova, which leaves her place in the Semi Final looking shaky.
Coco Gauff has made it clear to the reporters that she feels the situation is strange that she could win a match and still exit a tournament, but the Group Stage format is pretty clear from the opening of this event. The irony is that Gauff won the 2024 WTA Finals having lost her third match in the Group, but edging out Iga Swiatek on the tie-breakers despite the Polish player winning her last match.
All the American can do on Thursday is win her match and hope that the other falls her way.
Lose and she is out so Coco Gauff can at least focus on what she needs to do against an already eliminated Marta Kostyuk.
The latter has been struggling with a wrist issue and was beaten pretty comfortably by Coco Gauff when they played in Cincinnati in the lead up to the US Open. Both players have had issues with the second serve, but Gauff has shown she can produce a bit more consistency on the return of serve and that may be key, especially if Marta Kostyuk is already thinking ahead to giving her wrist some recovery time before the 2027 season begins.
It is a big spread, but Coco Gauff may have enough to edge past the number.
Jessica Pegula-Linda Noskova over 22.5 games: If Coco Gauff has been beaten earlier in the day, these two players will enter the court knowing both are playing in the Semi Final on Saturday.
However, a Coco Gauff win will put a lot of pressure on Jessica Pegula who will have to win the match to earn her place in the final four, despite losing the first match in the Group.
You may think all of the motivation is on the side of the American, but Linda Noskova may still want to top this section and avoid having to face Mirra Andreeva in the Semi Final. In order to do that, the Wimbledon Champion will have to win at least a set and Noskova has to believe she is good enough to do that considering the level she has been producing in Indian Wells.
The serve has been a huge weapon for Linda Noskova and she has only allowed six Break Points in the opening two matches as she has seen off both Marta Kostyuk and Coco Gauff. It has allowed the 21 year old to take aim at the return and there has been nothing wrong with this side of her tennis, which will give Linda Noskova a lot of confidence to take into the 2027 season, not to mention how she will be feeling this week.
She has won three of the four previous matches between these players, including on the grass in Berlin ahead of the success at Wimbledon, but the last three matches have all gone the distance.
Jessica Pegula may not be able to match the power coming from the other side of the court, but she can match the intensity and that gives her a fighting spirit that has to be respected.
You'd have to give Linda Noskova the edge considering the superior serving performance so far this week, but Jessica Pegula can find a way to at least force a deciding set.
A straight sets win for either would make it tough to believe they can cover this total games line mark set, but there is every chance this is the fourth time in a row that these players will have to go the distance and backing an over is the call.
MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jessica Pegula-Linda Noskova Over 22.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
WTA Finals: 5-1, + 3.43 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57.17% Yield)
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