Week 9 proved to be a solid one for the College Football Picks, but that is hopefully the start of a positive run and not an exception to a season long rule.
Big games are scheduled across the board in Week 10 of the season after the College Football Rankings were released and the jockeying towards the Playoff Bracket begins.
November is always a massive month in College Football and 2026 is proving to be no different as the big Conference games begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Baylor Bears Pick: Five of the Big 12 have been given a top twenty-five Ranking, but it is very difficult to make a case for more than one team from this Conference being invited into the College Football Playoff Bracket.
After nine weeks of College Football action, only one of the Big 12 teams has an unbeaten record, and teams like the Baylor Bears (5-3) are almost certainly eliminated from contention. The Bears have a 3-2 record within the Conference and the motivation has to be trying to push past a number of rivals and earn a spot in the Championship Game, while they are also a win away from earning Bowl eligibility even that is not going to be in the Playoffs.
Back to back losses and finishing with a losing record in three of the last four years meant Baylor decided to fire Head Coach Dave Aranda after a Week 8 defeat. There would have been some concerns that the team may lose focus, but the crushing win over the UCF Knights last time out has give Baylor some momentum as they return home.
This week the Bears are facing the Iowa State Cyclones (4-4) who are 2-3 in the Big 12 in Head Coach Jimmy Rogers' first season after long-time Head Coach Matt Campbell departed for Penn State.
Matt Campbell has raised the levels at Iowa State and they finished with winning records in eight of the last nine seasons, which clearly impressed bigger schools. Last season the Cyclones finished with an 8-4 record, while they won narrowly in Week 9 to keep them on track for another winning season having previously lost three of four games.
They are unsurprisingly a work in progress under a new Head Coach and the Cyclones may not match up very well with the Baylor Bears on either side of the ball in this Big 12 game.
The Cyclones would love to lean on the Offensive Line and pound the ball, which in turn will keep the stronger Baylor Offensive unit on the sidelines. However, the Bears Defensive Line have prided themselves by playing the run as they have all season and they will certainly look to force the road team to look to the air behind the arm of Jaylen Raynor.
The Quarter Back did have over 300 passing yards with 3 Touchdowns in the win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys and that will give him confidence, but Jaylen Raynor has been inconsistent. If he can use the momentum from last week, Raynor should have success throwing against this Baylor Secondary, although he will also need to be aware of the ability of the Defensive Backs to step up front of throws.
Playing from behind the chains would also mean Jaylen Raynor will need the Offensive Line to find a way to cool what has been a fierce Baylor pass rush, one that has helped force mistakes that the Secondary have exploited.
Running the ball should be more comfortable for the Baylor Bears if you are solely focused on the performance of the Cyclones Defensive Line, but it should be stated that Baylor have simply not been able to run the ball well all season. So while you would expect them to have one of their better games up front, the reality is that the Bears will go as far as Quarter Back DJ Lagway can take them.
It did not quite work out for Lagway with the Florida Gators, but he has been comfortable playing in a Conference where Quarter Backs have tended to pile up big numbers. In his two seasons with the Gators, DJ Lagway did have 28 passing Touchdowns, but added 23 Interceptions, and that makes the season he is putting together feel like a big uptick from previous form.
DJ Lagway has 16 passing Touchdowns for the Bears and just 4 Interceptions, and his recent form suggests the Quarter Back is about to become the latest to attack this Iowa State Secondary with real success. The Cyclones have been allowing far too many passing yards, while the lack of pass rush pressure has allowed the opposition Quarter Back the time needed to make the throws wherever they want.
This should be a game in which Baylor are capable of moving the ball with some consistency and that should put them in a position where they can snap a two game losing run to Iowa State.
The last two road games played by Iowa State have ended in blowout defeats and this has the makings of being another in Week 10 of the 2026 season.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Houston Cougars Pick: They have been given a Number 17 Ranking by the College Football Playoff Committee and that means the Houston Cougars (6-2) can return from the Bye Week with plenty to play for. The Big 12 is unlikely to be sending multiple teams to the College Football Playoff, but the Houston Cougars have a 3-2 record in the Conference and that means they are on track to at least earn a spot in the Championship Game and give themselves an opportunity to impress the decision makers.
Conference losses to the Utah Utes and Texas Tech Red Raiders means the Cougars have to overcome some tie-breaker issues, but the team have been able to reset and winning games is all that matters.
Two weeks ago they were being beaten by the Utah Utes and that is something that the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3) will understand having dropped to 2-3 in Big 12 games after being blown away by the aforementioned Utes in Week 9.
The second half performance will have given the Bearcats some momentum, but they have to find a solution to fix some of the Defensive issues that have been causing problems all season. Both road games have ended in defeat, in different fashion, but Cincinnati can take some belief out of their own Offensive capabilities in their bid for the upset.
As long as they can avoid falling into the hole they dug for themselves in the loss to the Utah Utes, the Bearcats will feel they can retain some balance Offensively and that will give them a chance to keep the chains moving.
Earlier this season the Cougars Defensive Line had played the run really well, but they headed into the Bye Week with some work to do up front and that is where this cover of the spread could be won and lost in Week 10. If the two week break has allowed Houston to fix some problems, they could potentially have more success controlling the Line of Scrimmage and, in turn, find a way to at least make the Bearcats have to pass out of third and long spots.
JC French IV has continued to show off his talent at Quarter Back with another game ending with more than 250 passing yards, but he was baited into a mistake by the Utes last week. Avoiding those will be easier from third and manageable spots, but French IV will need to be aware of this Houston Secondary that has allowed some big passing numbers, but who have also found a consistent ability to step in front of throws and turn the ball over.
Extra possessions can be crucial in these Big 12 games and Houston may feel they can earn those, which will put them in a position to pull away from the Bearcats.
Houston are expected to have a lot of balance in their play-calling with the Bearcats struggling to stop the run and the pass and Conner Weigman is plenty experienced at Quarter Back.
It will start with the run as the Cougars look to keep themselves in front of the chains, but Conner Weigman will be really confident he can dissect this Cincinnati Secondary. Running the ball will mean Weigman can step back and expect to get some time to throw the ball and his season so far has seen the Quarter Back thrown 20 Touchdowns with just 2 Interceptions.
If he can come out of the Bye Week and maintain those standards, Houston should be able to avoid the same mistakes that may blight the Cincinnati Offense and that, ultimately, will give the Cougars a chance to make a statement with a big win.
The Bearcats have won five in a row in this series with an opponent that moved across from the American Conference to the Big 12 and Cincinnati blew out Houston two years ago. Plenty will have changed in College Football in the two years since the teams last played, but you have to imagine Cougars fans have not forgotten and Houston can snap the losing streak in the most emphatic of manners.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Pick: The SEC has moved to a nine game Conference schedule and that meant putting teams together who could play 'rivalry games' every year over the next few seasons.
To the surprise of many, the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) and LSU Tigers (6-2) were not paired together and the annual meeting that has been played every year since 1964 will not take place in 2027.
That does mean there is more focus on this game in 2026, which is played after both teams had a Bye Week, and the Crimson Tide have a 4-2 record in the SEC, while the Tigers are 3-2. There is plenty on the line with both teams Ranked inside the top 14, but also very much aware that another defeat is going to be very difficult to overcome in their bid to reach the College Football Playoff having already suffered a couple of defeats.
Out of the two teams, the LSU Tigers may feel they have been involved in more competitive defeats and Head Coach Lane Kiffin has to be confident with what his team have shown on both sides of the ball, despite the record.
Both teams will know that the Line of Scrimmage is all important having both struggled to run the ball as expected.
The fact is that the Crimson Tide and Tigers are going to be facing Defensive Lines that will believe they have the edge and all of that points to this game coming down to which of the Quarter Backs has been prepared well enough to help their team win.
You have to give Sam Leavitt the edge over Keelon Russell and that is where the home team can do what is needed to win and, potentially, cover.
Keelon Russell has been playing well enough, but a Quarter Back can only be as good as the Offensive Line allows and there is little doubt that the pass rush pressure has managed to collapse the pocket. This has seen Russell hit often and that has led to mistakes in the passing game, which could be crucial in a game where both Offensive units may not have the consistency, but who could benefit from field position and extra possessions.
The Crimson Tide Offensive Line is going to be under immense pressure to keep the LSU pass rush from out of the backfield and it is going to be difficult for Alabama to move the ball in this big SEC game.
Things feel very different on the other side of the ball where Sam Leavitt may be given a bit more time, even in third and long spots, and that will give the LSU Quarter Back an opportunity to make the plays that are needed. Sam Leavitt has almost 2200 passing yards and has 17 Touchdown passes, but the 8 Interceptions have been the issue, but the Quarter Back has 7 Touchdown passes without a single Interception in the last couple of games since the upset loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.
Respect has to be given to this Crimson Tide Secondary who have been able to make big plays against the pass, but LSU have got to be confident that their experienced Quarter Back can do what is necessary to help his team earn the edge.
It is the Crimson Tide who have won the last three in the series, but the LSU Tigers look ready to turn the tables in front of the home fans.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: There are a cluster of SEC teams who have been Ranked pretty highly in the opening release from the College Football Playoff Committee, but the reality is that these teams will begin to separate out as the weeks tick by heading towards the Championship Game.
The Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) are given the Number 2 Ranking and they are 5-1 in the SEC, but they have a chance to prove they are deserving of the position when visiting the Number 10 Ranked Mississippi Rebels (6-2) who are 4-2 in the Conference.
Another loss could be really damaging for the Rebels and they will have to be aware that they are facing a Georgia team who will not have forgotten losing in the Sugar Bowl Quarter Final last season. That is going to give the Bulldogs motivation after crushing the Florida Gators in Week 9, but playing on the road is always much more challenging and this is a significant challenge for Georgia.
It is the Bulldogs Offensive Line who will be looking to set the standard- they have run the ball effectively all season, but they will also note that they are facing a Mississippi Defensive Line that has been stout up front and particularly strong at home. Recent games has seen the Rebels improve in their ability to slow down the opponent rushing attack and Mississippi have to make sure they can at least stall some drives.
Gunner Stockton did not play well enough in the loss to Auburn before the Georgia Bye Week and he only managed 101 passing yards in the win over the Gators on the return to action. The Quarter Back has had a very good season, but he will hope to be playing out of third and manageable spots on the field instead of having to get the ball moving down the field under pressure from this Rebels pass rush.
There will be some belief Georgia can have success on this side of the ball, but the Defensive unit have something to prove.
You cannot really criticise them for their performances in 2026, but Georgia's team will know they allowed 69 points in two games against the Mississippi Rebels last season and once again will be facing Quarter Back Trinidad Chambliss.
Trinidad Chambliss has piled up the passing yards, but it was the 3 Interceptions thrown against the Texas Longhorns that led to a recent Ole Miss loss and he cannot afford to do that here.
The Rebels have to look to keep the balance Offensively and they will be confident in the performances produced by the Offensive Line when it comes to establishing the run, but most will expect the game to come down to how Trinidad Chambliss handles the Bulldogs once again,
He will note that the Bulldogs Secondary have allowed some Quarter Backs to have considerable success in recent games, and Chambliss has to be happy with the protection that has been offered to him by the Offensive Line. Staying in front of the chains will at least force the Bulldogs pass rush to slow down slightly and that will mean Trinidad Chambliss could have success against this opponent once again.
Avoiding turnovers will be key, but if Trinidad Chambliss can do that, the Mississippi Rebels can keep this one close on the scoreboard in an important game where they can prove to the College Football Playoff Committee that they should be considered for a spot in the Bracket again this season.
MY PICKS: Baylor Bears - 9.5 Points @ 1.81 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 10.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 5.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 14.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 9: 6-3, + 2.13 Units (9 Units Staked, + 23.67% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.20 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.63 Units (6 Units Staked, - 10.5% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.16 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 2.33% Yield)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.49 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7% Yield)
Week 3: 1-4, - 3.17 Units (5 Units Staked, - 63.40% Yield)
Week 2: 2-3, - 1.28 Units (5 Units Staked, - 25.60% Yield)
Week 0: 0-3, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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