NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 29th)

The NFL Championship Games take place on Sunday as we finally learn the names of the two teams that will be competing in the Super Bowl in a fortnight from now.

Both games have the look of being fascinating viewing for the neutrals and I do think both could come down to the wire.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: If you are being honest, it has felt like the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) and San Francisco 49ers (15-4) have been on a collision course in the NFC. They have looked the two best team and strong wins in the Divisional Round means the two will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

You have to really like the composition of both rosters and I do think it will be a very close, competitive game.

There are some weaknesses that the other side will be looking to exploit, but it would be a real surprise if the outcome is still not in doubt as we hit the two minute warning in the Fourth Quarter.

The 49ers have to be given credit for the way they have overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy continues to surpass expectations. Mr Irrelevant will only be the fifth rookie Quarter Back to play in a Championship Game, but Purdy has to overcome the fact that the previous four were all beaten and struggled with Interceptions.

Kyle Shanahan is not expected to lean on his Quarter Back and put him in a dangerous position to turn the ball over. Instead the 49ers will continue to lean on the running game and will scheme up a number of misdirections and runs from different players to try and keep the Philadelphia Eagles off-balance.

Despite the improvements made on the Defensive Line, the Eagles have still had one or two issues stopping the run as they would like and that can only be encouraging news for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey may be the lead Running Back, but Deebo Samuel is someone that the 49ers will line up in the backfield and he is capable of ripping off a big run or two at any time, which should keep Brock Purdy and company in front of the chains.

This is so important for the 49ers- Purdy can make quick throws to get the ball into the hands of his skill players, but the San Francisco 49ers will not want to be in a position where he has to allow routes to develop down field and then have to deal with the vicious Eagles pass rush.

Throwing against the Eagles Secondary is not going to be easy and the 49ers did have issues moving the ball consistently and scoring points against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round. As good as the Dallas Defensive unit have been, the Philadelphia Eagles have been even better and I think they will feel they can slow down the rookie Quarter Back as long as they can stay on top of the run game.

Brock Purdy will make the headlines as the rookie and the last selection in the NFL Draft, but he should be the first to tell anyone that listens how important the rest of the roster is. The San Francisco Defense turned the ball over a couple of times in the narrow win over Dallas last week and I do think that was vital to the outcome of the game and the 49ers will be looking to earn some extra possessions against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

A Defensive Line that has been very strong against the run will be key for the 49ers, but there is one big factor that has been mentioned in the build up and that is the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back for the Eagles. Mobile Quarter Backs can be very tough to play and it has bene something of a relative weakness for the 49ers, although it is a theory that has not been tested much at all this season.

Jalen Hurts could be the key for the Eagles- that additional running threat may just give the 49ers pause for thought up front and playing in front of the chains is huge for the Eagles against a very tough Defensive unit on the other sidelines.

Slowing down the San Francisco pass rush would be a bonus of staying in manageable down and distance, while it would also just open up some of the passing lanes. A strong end to the season has given the 49ers Secondary some confidence, but the Eagles have a lot of top options in the Receiving unit and I do think Philadelphia can win against the Defensive Backs they are facing.

Both of these teams have positive trends behind them, but the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten games between them.

I think it will be close and there won't be much between the two teams, while turnovers are the one factor that you cannot really predict, yet will have a huge outcome in this one.

My feeling is that the home field advantage and the ability of Jalen Hurts to move the chains with his legs will ultimately make the difference for Philadelphia on the day. Both Defensive units are amongst the best in the NFL, while Brock Purdy may become the latest rookie Quarter Back to falter in the Championship Round of the PlayOffs.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Most were expecting the AFC Championship Game to have to be played on a neutral field and tickets were already being sold on that basis, but no one told the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) what script had been written. Instead they dominated the Buffalo Bills on the road in the Divisional Round and for a second season in a row they will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.

Last season the Bengals upset the home team Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) as a big underdog and Joe Burrow has continued his dominance of this opponent since heading into the NFL by making it 3-0 against the Chiefs during the 2022 regular season. It is no wonder the spread is much closer for this AFC Championship Game compared with when they met last year, while the additional reason is the high ankle sprain Patrick Mahomes is dealing with.

The Kansas City Quarter Back has been in practice, but most feel he is going to be limited at best once the real game starts.

That is obviously far from ideal for the Chiefs who know how important the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is to his overall game and losing that, or being limited, has proven to be hard to overcome in previous games when suffering with an injury. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but a part of that success is down to being able to scramble away from the pressure and I do think Patrick Mahomes is not going to be as strong in that aspect of his play in the AFC Championship Game.

When these teams met last month, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to run the ball really well and they may have to lean on that approach again if Andy Reid feels his Quarter Back is not at full health. However, there has been an improvement in the performance of the Cincinnati Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run as they have gotten healthier on this side of the ball.

Andy Reid is also a Head Coach that can lose interest in running the ball and it may be on Patrick Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs as he has done for much of his time with the team. The Quarter Back will have spaces in the Secondary to expose if he is able to put weight on his damaged ankle and Travis Kelce is expected to have a strong game for the Chiefs.

As I've said a few times, much will depend on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is and even a fully healthy Quarter Back might have had some issues beating Cincinnati.

He has yet to do that since Joe Burrow arrived in Cincinnati and the Bengals have momentum behind them after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on the road. The team are also getting healthier at the right time and the Offensive Line used the week between the Wild Card and Divisional PlayOff games to just work out how they were going to plug the gaps left by injured players.

That performance against the Buffalo Bills was really impressive from the Offensive Line which bullied the Bills up front and protected Joe Burrow when he stepped back to throw. The punishing moves to get Joe Mixon on track was huge in the win over Buffalo and stopping the run has been something of a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs, which can only mean good things for the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

If they can establish the run, Joe Burrow and the passing game should be able to purr into action. There are some top Receiving options for a Quarter Back that has thrived in playing big games both in College and in the pro ranks, while running the ball anywhere nearly as well as they did last week will mean Joe Burrow has a touch more time in the pocket to make the big plays downfield.

Kansas City's Secondary have played well down the stretch, but they won't have come up against too many teams with as dynamic playmakers as the Cincinnati Bengals.

I do like the chances of seeing a repeat rather than revenge in this AFC Championship Game after the Bengals upset the Chiefs in January 2022. While this won't be the same level of upset, the Bengals are the underdog again and Joe Burrow and company will play with the motivation of wanting to prove people wrong again.

Patrick Mahomes is not expected to be at full health, which is a blow for the Kansas City Chiefs, while this has been a team that have regularly been over-rated by the odds compilers this season.

Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams, while they are also 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs have been struggling against the numbers and they are a surprising 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten at home. A poor record against the Bengals will be a mental obstacle to overcome and I think the road underdog can find a way to reach back to back Super Bowls with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2023- Artur Beterbiev vs Anthony Yarde (January 28th)

The Boxing Picks had a strong return in 2022, but I have had a few weeks away from the selections in a bid to improve the win-loss rate.

A profit was secured in 2022, although the actually rate of successful winners was way below the mark I would have hoped. Narrowing the selections worked last year, but I still think there needs to be a little more done to close that further to try and improve the number of winners to losers.

Of course we are hitting markets that can produce big winners and that covers those losing selections, as proven last year, and balancing that approach with a stronger win-loss is the challenge to produce massive positive results.

We are already at the end of January, but I chose to avoid making selections from the first three cards of the year.

Much of that was down to trying to fine-tune the selection method, but practice is one thing, and reality can be much different.

There have been some solid fights already put together for the first half of the 2023 season and I will have a longer thread in the next Boxing Picks thread, which will hopefully be before the big Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara card set for mid-February. Much will depend on what kind of angles I can find, if any, but for now the focus is on the big fight taking place in London on Saturday.

Artur Beterbiev vs Anthony Yarde

There are one or two names in Boxing that may only be loved by the purists, but who are complete monsters of the sport.

One of those is Artur Beterbiev and as soon as it was announced he would be coming to London, this was an occasion that all Boxing fans should be looking to attend.

I will be there on Saturday evening as home hope Anthony Yarde has a second crack at winning a World Title after coming up short against Sergey Kovalev. That fight took place in Russia and Yarde was perhaps a punch or two away from ripping the World Title from the long time World Champion, but ultimately an Eleventh Round stoppage ended Yarde's hopes.

That bout was in August 2019 and it is disappointing to see that Anthony Yarde has only been out six times since then- one of those was a losing effort against Lyndon Arthur, although Yarde won the rematch decisively, and the Londoner has been guilty of long lay offs considering he has fought just once in 2022.

Anthony Yarde looks the part and I don't think anyone will doubt his power, but this is a massive step up compared with recent opponents and Artur Beterbiev has been operating at a much higher level.

Yes, he is 38 years old, and yes, he has not fought since June last year when blitzing Joe Smith Jr and that is largely down to Beterbiev dealing with injury.

However, there has been little sign this massive puncher has lost a step and Artur Beterbiev is looking to Unify the Light-Heavyweight Division over the next twelve months. All eighteen previous professional fights have ended in stoppage in favour of Beterbiev and he has been able to deal with any approach that opponents have brought into the ring.

If you want to box and move and stay out of trouble, Artur Beterbiev has shown his ring craft to closing off spaces and systematically broken opponents down and stopped them late.

On the other hand if you want a firefight, Artur Beterbiev has been happy to engage and ultimately closed the show very early.

My feeling is that Anthony Yarde believes plenty in his own power and I expect him to engage as early as he can.

Only Sergey Kovalev has avoided being stopped by Anthony Yarde and that kind of record means Yarde is unlikely to take an approach that he feels proved to be his downfall in narrowly losing the first fight with Lyndon Arthur. He returned to type in Knocking Out Arthur in Four Rounds in December 2021, and it feels like it would be a surprise to see this bout enter the second half of the contest with the styles of the two likely to blend very nicely.

Some have completely ruled out Anthony Yarde's chances, but everyone has a shot at the Light Heavyweight weight class. Callum Johnson did put Artur Beterbiev down early in his Fourth Round loss to the Russian in October 2018 and it felt like Johnson did hurt him that day (or angered him considering how soon Beterbiev closed the show).

Anthony Yarde showed some resiliency against Sergey Kovalev, but I think Artur Beterbiev is at a higher level than his compatriot right now and the World Champion may find the big punches in a shoot out to close this one inside the first half of the fight.

In other bouts on the card, I do think Artem Dalakian can make a strong return to the ring.

Inactivity can be an issue for any fighter and it may take a couple of Rounds to get back into the groove, but the Ukrainian may have enough to just about wear down David Jimenez in the second World Title bout on this card and Dalakian can earn a late stoppage.

I would be very surprised if Moses Itauma is not able to secure a win inside three minutes on his debut, while his brother Karol should also secure an early victory.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Artem Dalakian to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Moses Itauma to Win in the First Round @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karol Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final 2023 (January 29th)

It felt like she was the best player in the tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka showed extreme mental strength to win her first Grand Slam title from a set behind against the Wimbledon Champion Elena Rybakina.

This could really be the beginning of a dominant spell for Sabalenka, who will be considered amongst the favourites at Wimbledon and the US Open, although the clay courts will provide the next Grand Slam challenge. Before then, Aryna Sabalenka will be looking to put up some significant Ranking points in the tournaments to be played in February and March and to build on the momentum she has created for herself this month.

Elena Rybakina will also be able to bounce back from this defeat- she is now officially into the top 10 of the World Rankings and has a game that will be dangerous on the faster surfaces in the second half of the season.

The Pick from the women's Final returned another winner to cement what has been a strong tournament and there is just one more match to be played in Melbourne in 2023.

It should be a good one as the men take centre stage on the Rod Laver Arena.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Carlos Alcaraz, the World Number 1, has been a big miss at the tournament, but the reality of the ATP Tour is that Novak Djokovic is still considered the best player in the world even when the Rankings have not reflected that over the last twelve months. Not being able to play in two of the four Grand Slam events clearly impacted the Ranking Points, while Novak Djokovic won the Wimbledon title where the Points had been removed.

It is fitting that his return to Melbourne has Novak Djokovic once again reaching the Final at the Australian Open, where he has not been beaten since 2018, and winning a tenth Slam here will mean the Serb is once again Number 1 in the World.

However, Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing in his second Grand Slam Final this week having finally gotten through the Semi Final Round at the Australian Open. He has been beaten three times in the Semi Final at Melbourne Park previously, but Stefanos Tsitsipas overcame a couple of nervy moments in his four set win over Karen Khachanov on Friday and will feel plenty confident about where his tennis is as he looks for a maiden Grand Slam title.

And like Novak Djokovic, winning the title here will mean Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the new World Number 1 on Monday morning.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will know the kind of challenge that is in front of him- in his previous Grand Slam Final at the French Open, the Greek player led Novak Djokovic 2-0 in sets before losing in five sets and this is the court that Djokovic has been at his most dominant.

Despite carrying a hamstring issue, Novak Djokovic has been incredibly good this week and I think it is going to take something special to beat him on his return to Melbourne. While he has put together stronger tournaments at the Australian Open in terms of pure numbers, this has still been one of his best two weeks at Melbourne Park and Novak Djokovic has been incredibly strong behind both serve and return.

The test for Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be how well he can serve- he has held 91% of his service games at the tournament, but I cannot shake off the performance against Jannik Sinner when the Italian missed over twenty Break Point chances in an eventual defeat.

Novak Djokovic is playing at a level where he is not going to be wasteful at the big moments and he broke Tommy Paul seven times in the Semi Final, which means every opponent has been broken at least five times through the tournament. The nine time Champion will have been a little disappointed with one or two loose service games, but Novak Djokovic has a massive edge when it comes to returning numbers between himself and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

This has been a fact that has also been evident in their head to head matches, which have been dominated by Novak Djokovic since losing two of the first three between these players. Since then, Novak Djokovic has won nine straight matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and has beaten him three times on the hard courts since early October 2022.

The former World Number 1 has held 88% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 76% mark in their head to head contests, while that edge has been even clearer if you only consider the matches played against one another over the last twelve months. The Tsitsipas serve is one that tends to get a few more easier points out of Novak Djokovic than most and he has won 68% of service points played against Djokovic in their three hard court matches in 2022, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has held 85% of service games played compared with 94% for his opponent.

Some will suggest that is not a massive difference in the percentages, but tennis really is a game of inches and it is a significant number. Novak Djokovic has also been playing at a clearly superior level to most in this tournament and I think he will be very difficult to beat as long as the body can hold up.

It would not be a massive surprise if Stefanos Tsitsipas took a set, but I think Novak Djokovic is going to exert more consistent pressure on the return. If the underdog can continue to produce a 66% first serve percentage, I do think he could push Djokovic, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may eventually be worn down by the mental and physical pressure of the long-time dominant Champion of this tournament and it could end up being another strong win for the Serb.

Novak Djokovic might 'only' be 12-6 in hard court Grand Slam Finals, but he is 9-0 in Australia compared with 3-6 in the United States.

His numbers have, unsurprisingly, been really strong in the Australian Open Final throughout his career and Novak Djokovic has won three of the last four Finals played here without dropping a set.

I can imagine the first set to be competitive, but Novak Djokovic should be able to get on top with his superior return play and I believe he can cover what is another big handicap mark, especially considering the quality of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both are unbeaten in 2023, but Tsitsipas has had one or two close calls and Novak Djokovic's level looks like it could be too much to deal with over three or four hours.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 44-30, + 15.68 Units (144 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Pick- Women's Final 2023 (January 28th)

The Fourth Round and Quarter Final Tennis Picks were pretty disappointing as far as I am concerned, although the key was that I did not have one of those truly bad days to knock off the early positive numbers produced.

That has been really important and ensured the perfect 4-0 run in the Semi Final selections has meant a solid winning effort at the Australian Open.

Even with that in mind, I am looking to keep the momentum going with my Tennis Pick from the women's Final on Saturday, one that features the two best players in the tournament by some distance. Picking a winner looks a tough challenge with so many external factors that could impact the two, namely nerves and tension at key moments, but I think it could be a good Final for the fans to enjoy and I am not anticipating a straight-forward win for either.

My Pick from the men's Final should be posted in the hour after the women's Final is concluded.

Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka over 22.5 games: The two best players at the Australian Open, in the women's draw, are meeting in the Final on Saturday and I do think this could be a really fun watch.

Some people have suggested that tennis matches tend to be 'too long', but I am not sure how many rallies are going to be played by Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Both are aggressive, first strike players who have massive serves that can set up the points right from the off, while they will also be well aware that the other is likely going to take some big swings with every second serve that will be seen.

Tension in the arm and the magnitude of the situation can lead to a lot of mistakes from players who want to swing freely. There will also be a lot of pressure to up the first serve percentage with Elena Rybakina getting 55% of first serves in play compared with 58% for Aryna Sabalenka, a number that may not seem like much between them, but one that may give the higher Ranked player a slight edge.

Of course Elena Rybakina has a real mental edge of having won a Grand Slam title before, even if she feels she is not a Champion after the Wimbledon Ranking points were scrubbed last year. That would have meant going into the next two Grand Slams as a top ten player and perhaps a higher profile than being bunted out into one of the outside courts to open her tournament in Melbourne.

The Kazakhstan player is not one to let something like that bother her and the way she has cut a pathway through the draw underlines the point.

However, the raw numbers at this tournament suggest the layers have got the right favourite for this Final in Aryna Sabalenka. Getting more first serves in play is obviously huge, but Sabalenka has also has slight edges in terms of points won behind the second serve and on the return, even if the Elena Rybakina first serve feels the best shot on the court.

Aryna Sabalenka has also won all three previous matches against Elena Rybakina- all three have needed a deciding set with one or two errors capitalised on by the opponent.

I very much feel that could be the case again in the women's Final at the Australian Open.

Both players should feel they can contain the threat the opponent brings by producing big first serves, but I also think aggressive returns will see some swings in momentum. You can't really account for how players will deal with nerves of the occasion, but I do think the chance of being able to settle down with big serving will help and I think they are very closely matched, which could produce a tight and competitive Final.

There is a chance that just two sets will be needed to clear the total games mark set for the Final- I am noted that the money has come in for Elena Rybakina to narrow the odds, but picking a winner is difficult with my narrow edge going with Aryna Sabalenka, my pre-tournament selection to win the opening Grand Slam of 2023.

However, going over the total games line looks the play here considering how close their previous matches have been and I do think a decider might be needed.

Of course you cannot discount the chances of nerves overwhelming one of the players on the day- that is more likely to be on Aryna Sabalenka's side of the court now that Elena Rybakina has won a Grand Slam title before. Those nerves can quickly see a match run away from a player, but I think the serving capabilities of both and the performance level at the Australian Open should mean a close, competitive match is produced.

MY PICK: Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 43-30, + 14.08 Units (142 Units Staked, + 9.92% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2023 (January 27th)

The first Grand Slam Final of the season has been set and it should be a big hitting, winner filled encounter when Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka meet on Saturday.

Before that, we have to put together the men's Final with the two Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Rod Laver Arena on Friday. The first of those is effectively going to be played in the 'day' session and that might mean the winner is less accustomed to the kind of conditions they are going to see on Sunday, but I don't think it will make a massive difference in the market if Novak Djokovic wins the second Semi Final.

In that case you have to believe the nine time Australian Open Champion is going to be a significant favourite to another in Melbourne regardless of who he faces.

Late breaks proved to just turn the tide on some of the inconsistent fortune that has impacted the Tennis Picks over the last week.

In the Day 11 Semi Final matches, both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka were able to turn the screw and deservedly cover as big favourites. That has ensured a winning tournament for the Tennis Picks, but I still need to finish with a flourish to put some strong numbers in the book in January.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: It might have been a tough, battling Quarter Final win for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but one of the top players on the ATP Tour showed the confidence and focus to dismiss Jiri Lehecka in straight sets just two days after needing five sets to beat Jannik Sinner.

The recovery to beat Sinner having dropped the third and fourth sets will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas full belief in his ability to win a maiden Grand Slam title, a win that could spark the career. The longer you have to wait for it, the harder it becomes, but winning a first major could push Tsitsipas onto very good things, especially as he would also end the tournament as the new World Number 1.

It is very important for Stefanos Tsitsipas to make hay in the first half of the year where his best Grand Slam results have tended to be at the Australian Open and French Open. He has yet to reach the Final in Melbourne, but Tsitsipas will be playing in his fourth Semi Final here, while he has made one Final at Roland Garros and reached another Semi Final there.

Compare that to Wimbledon and the US Open where the World Number 4 has only reached the SECOND WEEK once in his career and you have to think Stefanos Tsitsipas needs some momentum to take into those later Slams. Winning a first Slam would be the exact momentum to push a player forward and Stefanos Tsitsipas has played really well this month and carried that through to his performances in Melbourne.

Karen Khachanov has to be hugely respected as he has made back to back Grand Slam Semi Finals, although he was well beaten by Casper Ruud at the US Open in September. He had not been beyond the Third Round at the Australian Open before this season and he has taken full advantage of what has been a relatively kind draw so far at the tournament, although Karen Khachanov will be the first to admit how much higher his level is going to have to be to win this one and reach his first Grand Slam Final.

Both of these players are serving really well and that is going to be key to the outcome of the Semi Final- Karen Khachanov has the edge on the returning numbers this week, but these players have tended to have similar numbers on that side of their tennis on the hard courts over a much longer sample size.

Over the last twelve months on this surface, Karen Khachanov has broken in 22% of return games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 19% mark, and both have seen those dip significantly when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the surface. The difference is that Stefanos Tsitsipas has kept his serving numbers at a strong level against the better players on the Tour, while Karen Khachanov's dip from an overall 83% hold mark to 75%.

Stefanos Tsitsipas should also hold the mental edge having won all five previous matches against the Russian and only dropped two sets in that time. The last win was on a clay court, but Tsitsipas is 4-0 against Karen Khachanov on the hard courts and the former has held 89% of his service games compared with 72% for Khachanov.

I expect the superior server to be Stefanos Tsitsipas in this Semi Final and it should help him lay the foundation for a place in his first Australian Open Final. He can win this in three or four sets and make sure he is as fresh as possible for what is likely to be a big physical and mental challenge on Sunday.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Tommy Paul: All credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for forcing his way into the last four at the Australian Open, but it is going to take a monumental effort for the American to become the first men's player from that nation to win a Grand Slam title since 2003. He is not only going to be an underdog in this Semi Final, but Tommy Paul would likely start the Final as the underdog too, regardless of who makes it through the other Semi Final.

In reality, Tommy Paul cannot look beyond the player he is facing on Friday.

The nine time Australian Open Champion continues to fend off questions about his health following a second dominant win in a row after Novak Djokovic crushed Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final. There has been some suggestion that he is overplaying the significance of the hamstring injury he is clearly carrying, but Djokovic's team have batted them away and the Serb is very focused on winning a tenth Grand Slam here having not been beaten in Australia since 2018 (at least not on a tennis court rather than a court of justice).

His numbers have been really, really strong in the tournament and Novak Djokovic continues to serve at a very high level. This has made things a little easier for the former World Number 1 and he has held 95% of the service games played in Melbourne, which is the same mark he carried from the Adelaide tournament won in warm up for the first Grand Slam of the season.

The serve has always been underrated and most will focus on the exceptional return play that is associated with Novak Djokovic. The stop-start nature of his 2022 campaign may have contributed to the slightly declined return numbers, but Novak Djokovic has returned with authority in Australia over the last month and is breaking in 32% of return games played. Even more impressive, Novak Djokovic has upped that mark to 42% at the Australian Open and it will be a part of his game that puts an immense amount of pressure on Tommy Paul.

The American's own serve has been a huge part of his success at Melbourne Park and Tommy Paul has held 89% of the service games played, although that is a mark considerably higher than he has managed over the last few years. Maintaining that level is not really expected week after week on the Tour, but Paul has to try and find a way to produce two more matches where he can hit his marks on the court.

Over the last twelve months, serving well enough against the top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts has been difficult for Tommy Paul and he has held 77% of those game in that time. It is still a decent enough mark, but you have to imagine Novak Djokovic is going to exert plenty of pressure on him on a court where the former World Number 1 arguably feels his most comfortable on the Tour.

A question for Tommy Paul will be whether he can return well enough to make up for his serve being attacked more than he has been used to in this tournament. He has broken in 29% of return games played at the Australian Open, but that is significantly higher than his mark for the last twelve months, while those numbers have dipped to 21% when only considering hard court matches against top 20 Ranked players.

You can't take away from his successes at this tournament, but Tommy Paul has benefited from a kind draw which has seen him beat one player Ranked inside the top 30 and none inside the top 20. There have been some solid wins at the event, which has to be respected, but this is a considerable level up and I think Novak Djokovic will ultimately wear down his inexperienced opponent and come through with a big win and a cover of this line.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 41-30, + 10.48 Units (138 Units Staked, + 7.59% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2023 (January 26th)

We are down to the final four of both the men's and women's Singles event at the Australian Open and there is every chance we are going to get two quality Finals from here.

Novak Djokovic is the clear favourite to win the men's event, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is a looming threat and I think those two would produce an ideal end to the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.

The women's event looks much more open- in one Semi Final we have two former major winners squaring off, but the other has a surprising player making their first Grand Slam Semi Final appearance against one who has long been considered a Champion in the making that has come up short.

Elena Rybakina winning is perhaps the best outcome for fans on the WTA Tour- there are simply not many multiple time Slam Champions still playing regularly and Rybakina winning two of the last three Grand Slams may come through to be the rival that Iga Swiatek needs. A win over Swiatek in this tournament and then going on to win it would only build a rivalry that is desperately needed on the WTA side of the Tour and I think Elena Rybakina has all of the tools to be a future World Number 1 and to add many a Slam to the Wimbledon trophy she took home last July.

However, in saying that, I do think someone like Aryna Sabalenka could go strength to strength when she is able to get over the hump and win her first Grand Slam title. Her overall record at this level is actually pretty poor and so it does feel the time may be running out for Sabalenka to do that and push her career forward from there.

Day 10 proved to be another mixed bag for the Tennis Picks, but it could have been a lot worse after the disappointing results through the Quarter Final Round.

With just six matches left at the Australian Open this year, I would be extremely disappointed to go 2-4 or worse and dent the numbers produced from the tournament so far. In reality I am always aiming for six out of six winners to end the first Slam of the year and build some confidence to take into a very long season.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It might say 22 next to her name in terms of the Seeding at the Australian Open, but Elena Rybakina is the current Wimbledon Champion and would have entered 2023 as a comfortable top ten Ranked player if that tournament had not had its Ranking points removed by the Tours.

That came in light of the decision to ban players from Belarusian and Russian nationalities from competing in the tournament and so this is a Semi Final that could not have taken place at Wimbledon last July. Victoria Azarenka was not able to compete there, but has found some of her old form in Melbourne where she is a two time former Champion having upset Jessica Pegula in the Quarter Final.

It is a win that has to give Victoria Azarenka a lot of confidence and the women's tournament looks wide open for each of the four players remaining. This is the Semi Final featuring the only two remaining players with at least one Grand Slam title in the bag and so the winner between Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina may enter the Final as the favourite with the experience edge alone.

Neither of these players had much momentum behind them from the warm up tournaments, but they do have a Champion mentality which has proved to be crucial for them in Melbourne. Elena Rybakina has beaten the World Number 1 in very fine fashion, and both Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka have two wins over players currently Ranked inside the top 13.

I cannot easily dismiss Victoria Azarenka's chances after the strong win over Jessica Pegula, but that was also a victory over a World Number 3 that has never reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam. Stats like that underline why there is a perceived weakness at the top of the women's game, but you still have to beat the player in front of you and Victoria Azarenka did that in fine enough form to be respected, even at this stage of her career.

However, I do think Elena Rybakina is the rightful favourite as someone who continues to showcase her development into one of the premier WTA players around. Winning a second Grand Slam in seven months would certainly mean the Kazakhstan player will enter a lot of tournaments right amongst the favourites to win and Rybakina may also be ready to build a rivalry with Iga Swiatek for the top position on the Tour.

Like a few players before her, Elena Rybakina possesses a dominant serve- you can't put it up there with Serena Williams' serve right now, but it is a weapon that has proven to be essential to her game. If she serves as well as she can, there isn't a player on the Tour that can beat Elena Rybakina, but the key for her will be to find the consistency to produce week after week.

The serve has been a massive threat for Elena Rybakina throughout this tournament and it can be the key to breaking this Semi Final open. In her sole previous meeting with Victoria Azarenka in Indian Wells last March, Elena Rybakina only offered up a single Break Point in a straight sets win and she won 77% of her service points played on the day.

Victoria Azarenka's first serve can help her get in front of a rally, but she does not have the most effective second serve and she will not earn as many cheap points as Elena Rybakina is expected to in this Semi Final.

The return edge is with Azarenka, but I am not sure she will be given the time to really try and impose that on this match and I do give Elena Rybakina an edge in earning a place in the Saturday Final.

Elena Rybakina could become a truly exceptional player if she can find a stronger return game, but it has been plenty strong this week in Melbourne and I think she beats the veteran in a fun, but ultimately in a largely dominant display.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: Both of these players won in straight sets on Day 10 at the Australian Open, but Aryna Sabalenka was a clear favourite in her Quarter Final. That makes her win no less impressive, although the headlines will have been written by Magda Linette who continues making surprising progress at Melbourne Park.

If someone had told you that a women's Polish player will make the Semi Final at the Australian Open two weeks ago, you would have had a lot of money on that being Iga Swiatek. Instead of the World Number 1, Magda Linette has made a number of firsts in her career at the tournament- it has been the first time she has reached the second week of a Grand Slam, the first Quarter Final at a Slam and now a first Semi Final at a Slam.

She will not want the run to end and even the poor head to head with Aryna Sabalenka is not likely to upset Magda Linette considering she beat Karolina Pliskova on Wednesday having lost seven of the previous nine against the Czech player. A lot of those losses had been in one-sided fashion too so the fact the four sets played against Aryna Sabalenka have ended 6-1 (twice), 6-2 and 6-3 may not be as big a factor as you would expect.

Ultimately the pressure is on Aryna Sabalenka who has long been considered a Grand Slam Champion in the making and found a way to falter when the winning line has approached. Despite the obvious qualities, Sabalenka has yet to make the Final of any Grand Slam and has lost all four Semi Final matches played at this level, a fact that will not have been lost on her.

Like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has surprisingly not made it to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open before and she has led in two of her previous three Semi Final matches at Grand Slams before losing. Having come close to reaching a Final, I expect some nerves to be at play compared with Magda Linette who may feel she has nothing to lose having completely moved past her expectations here.

The lower Ranked player is going to have to serve well and see whether she can build some pressure on her opponent in this Semi Final. So far, Magda Linette has been able to look after her second serve and that has led to dropping serve just ten times in her five wins at the Australian Open so far, while then allowing her to take a few more risks on the return.

Serving well has to be the key against an aggressive Aryna Sabalenka who looks to attack that shot constantly.

Aryna Sabalenka has been dominating on the return throughout this month and has pushed her numbers to winning 50% of return points played in the tournament. That is an incredible level and maintaining that for seven matches will never be easy, but Sabalenka is playing with a real confidence and has not really been pushed in any of her matches in the draw.

She has not played the same level of opponents as Magda Linette, but Aryna Sabalenka also won a tournament ahead of the Australian Open and there is no doubting her level right now. The serve was something of a hindrance at times last year, but Sabalenka looks to have gotten control of the second delivery and that has rebuilt the confidence in that shot and has led to losing serve just five times in five matches.

Donna Vekic had her chances in the Quarter Final, but I expect Aryna Sabalenka to largely contain the threat in this Semi Final as she did in her last match. The power and aggression should favour the World Number 5 and I think Aryna Sabalenka will make her way into a maiden Slam Final with a strong victory in the second Semi Final to be played on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 39-30, + 7.04 Units (134 Units Staked, + 5.25% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2023 (January 25th)

One half of the Semi Final line up has been confirmed and the remaining four places will be decided on Day 10 at the tournament.

There is a full day of action on the Rod Laver Arena beginning with the two women's Quarter Final matches followed by the men.

Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 games: It was not a good day for American tennis on Tuesday at the Australian Open as two players fell at the Quarter Final stage of the tournament, one each from the men's and women's draws. However, it is not all doom and gloom with this Quarter Final guaranteeing at least one player into the last four as the two remaining American players meet one another in what should be a big hitting match.

Both Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul have surprisingly made their way through to the Quarter Final, although the inexperienced Shelton has arguably benefited from a kind draw. While he has yet to beat a player Ranked inside the top 66, Tommy Paul has beaten three players from inside the top 40 to make his way into the last eight.

In recent seasons Tommy Paul has been a much improved player on the Tour and his numbers on his favourite surface, the hard courts, have reflected the improvement made. He reached his career best World Ranking last September at Number 28, but a win on Day 10 at the Australian Open will mean Paul is going to crack the top 20 regardless of how much further he progresses in the tournament.

That is a huge motivation, as well as the opportunity to perhaps win his first ever Grand Slam title, but Tommy Paul would be making a real mistake overlooking his compatriot. Amazingly, Ben Shelton had not played outside of the United States before heading 'Down Under' to play a couple of warm up events prior to the Australian Open and he has taken full advantage of the way the draw has broken down for him.

However, it would be wrong to say Ben Shelton is just an opportunist considering he ended last season with three straight titles at the Challenger level. He is inexperienced, but the lefty has a big serve and he has won 76% of the points played behind the serve at the Australian Open, which has unsurprisingly led to holds in 96% of service games played.

It will always give the young American a chance and having the confidence in the serve will also put opponents under significant pressure knowing one lapse in concentration could cost them a set. Tommy Paul will be aware of that, but he will be happy enough with his own level of serving with 88% of games held in the tournament and that despite playing the higher quality of opponent compared with Ben Shelton.

A real difference between the players is the return of serve and that is where the favourite, Tommy Paul, has a significant edge. He has broken in 33% of return games at the tournament, but has regularly managed 28% break rates over the course of a season on the hard courts in recent years, while Ben Shelton has only broken in 13% of return games played.

Ben Shelton's break percentage is much better on the Challenger Tour, but it is still below the mark that Tommy Paul has produced on the main ATP Tour and it could prove to be significant when it comes to the tie-breakers that are likely going to be needed.

My edge is with Tommy Paul to use his experience and return game to just about move past Ben Shelton, but I would be surprised if the young American completely wilted away. This is a new situation for Shelton to deal with, but if he serves as well as he can, he will feel he can at least take a set from Tommy Paul and I think the two players could combine to surpass the total games line set.

I thought it might be a few more games higher than where the total currently stands and it would be a surprise if either player is blown away. A three set win for either would mean the total cannot be surpassed, but I anticipate both will win a set and it could be a day for the servers on Rod Laver Arena.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Andrey Rublev: There has been some frustration from Novak Djokovic and his camp that some have sought to downplay the injury he has been dealing with throughout the Australian Open. It may have something to do with the fact he looked to be really struggling two years ago before comfortably working his way through the draw and his Fourth Round win over Alex De Minaur was also very 'easy' a couple of days ago.

Personally I do think there is an issue, but I am not sure it is as serious as it has sometimes looked. It does have to be managed, as any sore hamstring would need, but Novak Djokovic is certainly going to be strong enough to finish this event and it is going to take a special effort to beat him on a court he has long dominated.

Andrey Rublev won't be intimidated by the challenge, even though he has lost two of the three previous matches against the former World Number 1. Both of those defeats have been indoor hard court defeats at the ATP Tour Finals, but the main reason Andrey Rublev should not worry about beating Novak Djokovic in a place he is very comfortable is because his one win came last year in Belgrade.

That was on a clay court, but Novak Djokovic is a very comfortable player on that surface so the win should not be downgraded. On that day Andrey Rublev got a bit more out of the serve and was able to win the big points, but he was very strong on the return of serve and is going to need to be very effective on this side of the net if he is going to upset the favourite for the title.

It has been a different story in the two hard court matches though and Novak Djokovic has had a massive edge over Andrey Rublev- he has held 94% of his service games played in those two matches compared with Rublev's 56% mark and that has to be a real confidence booster for the fans of the Serb.

Barring a couple of slip ups against Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round, Novak Djokovic has been serving at an incredible level through this Australian Open tournament and has held 94% of the service games played. I do think Andrey Rublev can test that, but he is coming in off an emotional and physical match against Holger Rune and you do have to factor in the lack of success in return games the Russian has had against Djokovic in their hard court matches.

Andrey Rublev has also been serving well in the four matches won in Melbourne after struggles in losses in warm up events earlier this month. That is key for him again to try and keep Novak Djokovic under some pressure, but the latter has been returning at a very high level all week and he has broken at least five times in all four wins, while winning 47% of return points played leading to breaks in 42% of return games played.

This is a big spread as far as the level of Andrey Rublev at his best is concerned and with some doubts about how healthy Novak Djokovic is, but I do think their previous hard court matches suggest that Djokovic will be the dominant player. I expect one or two sets to be close, but Novak Djokovic should be able to put at least one set in the bank with a double break of serve and that can see him cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 37-28, + 7.78 Units (126 Units Staked, + 6.17% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2023 (January 24th)

After a really positive run through the Third Round matches, the Fourth Round was a touch more frustrating.

However, I can only be pleased with the opening of the 2023 season... It is only an opening though with six days left at the tournament.

Eight Quarter Final matches, four Semi Final matches and two Finals have to be played across those six days before the end of the Australian Open and so this is a time not to applaud past successes, but remain focused to ensure a positive end to the event can be secured. This is going to feel important because I will not be having any more Tennis Picks in January and perhaps not until the WTA Tour begins its swing through the Middle East.

The ATP Tour will hit the South American Golden Swing and indoor hard court events in Europe before their tournaments are also head to Qatar and Dubai for big events at the end of February.

All in all it means the next few days are important to build on the start made at the Australian Open and you can see the selections from Day 9 as the top half Quarter Final matches are played.

Sebastian Korda v Karen Khachanov: It is almost twenty full years since an American men's tennis player has won a Grand Slam title when Andy Roddick picked up his sole Slam at the US Open. Since then, American tennis has struggled to find the talent to really challenge for the major prizes on the ATP Tour, but the last couple of years there has been a momentum shift.

We may finally have seen that come together at a Grand Slam where a number of those younger players have made it through to the Quarter Final of the Australian Open. On Day 10 we are going to definitely be getting at least one American male player into the last four of a Grand Slam, but on Day 9 arguably the most talented of the players leaving those shores will be in action in his own Quarter Final.

Having a former Australian Open Champion as a father and a top 30 Ranked WTA player as a mother has clearly helped the children with the Korda sisters making a big name for themselves on the LPGA Tour, but it is Sebastian Korda making the biggest waves this week. He may consider himself the 'worst athlete' in the family, but at the end of this tournament he is definitely going to be eclipsing his mother's best World Ranking mark and is looking to win the same title his father did twenty-five years ago.

American commentators have long talked up what Sebastian Korda could be capable of and you do wonder how many more Grand Slams he could pick up if he can win one early in his career. 2023 has already started in impressive fashion for Korda who has a number of top 20 wins already and he is the favourite in this Quarter Final.

I think the price would have been much wider in favour of Sebastian Korda if he had not been dealing with one or two issues in his win over Hubert Hurkacz in the Fourth Round, while the performances of Karen Khachanov have been very impressive this week. The Russian is higher Ranked than Sebastian Korda and is an experienced player at the business end of Grand Slams having reached three previous Quarter Finals at this level at each of the other three tournaments played.

Karen Khachanov will be looking to make it back to back Grand Slam Semi Final runs after doing that at the US Open in September and that does mean he should be respected. The serve is a potent weapon for Khachanov when he is at his best, and it has been operating at a pretty high level at the Australian Open which has given Karen Khachanov an opportunity to play loose and aggressive on the return.

His toughest match this week was the four set win over Frances Tiafoe, but otherwise Khachanov has been untroubled and so should be the fresher player.

It should be said that the Karen Khachanov numbers are far stronger this week than those produced by Sebastian Korda, but I do think the wins over Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz will stand Korda in good stead.

Further he won both hard court matches against Karen Khachanov last year and Sebastian Korda had a considerable edge on the serve in those matches- he won 66% of service points played and held 86% of service games played compared with Khachanov's 60% and 71% marks respectively.

It has been a really good month for Sebastian Korda and I do think he can keep up his edge over this opponent as he looks to make a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. You have to imagine that Sebastian Korda has grown up ready to deal with the nerves that come with his strongest Grand Slam run of his young career and I think he will be able to do enough to get past a big-hitting, quality opponent like Karen Khachanov in a tough battle.

The head to head edge on the numbers and the results over the last six months should be a major confidence booster for the young American and I will back him to move through.

Jiri Lehecka + 6.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: He may have started his tennis career much later than most, but Jiri Lehecka is clearly very, very talented and is making waves at the first Grand Slam of the season. Wins over two top 12 Ranked opponents have been impressive to watch, but the challenges continue to get tougher into this Quarter Final as he takes on a genuine contender to win the title in Melbourne.

It won't just be Stefanos Tsitsipas who will test the young player, but a huge amount of the crowd are going to be firmly behind the higher Ranked player and that can be tough to deal with for someone who is not that experienced.

This will be another learning match for Jiri Lehecka, but he has to be pleased with the level of tennis he has been playing at the Australian Open and it may be good enough to challenge Stefanos Tsitsipas, even if the favourite ultimately prevails.

Serving well has been the key to this run to the Quarter Final and Jiri Lehecka is also an aggressive, come forward player who will look to get to the net and dare opponents to pass him. If a return player gets some rhythm on the pass, it could be a tough day in the office for Lehecka, but he has to feel his best approach to this match is putting Stefanos Tsitsipas under the gun and making him pass time and time again.

For all of the qualities the Greek player has, his return can be improved- Stefanos Tsitsipas has been returning well this month, but the wins have come at the Australian Open because of his efficiency when it comes to breaking serve. He is winning less than 40% of return points, but Tsitsipas is 18/34 when it comes to Break Points and a similar kind of level will mean he has every chance of winning this Quarter Final in fairly routine fashion.

Much of that would be down to the fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas is really dominating behind his serve and managing to play the biggest points very well. He was a little fortunate against Jannik Sinner in the last Round having saved 22 Break Points, but Tsitsipas had only dropped serve twice in three previous matches and had allowed a total of 15 Break Points across those three wins.

Like his opponent, Jiri Lehecka has used his serve to try and create pressure that leads to the Break chances and he has been pretty efficient with his performances when those points have been earned. He also showed tremendous resiliency to keep serving well in the win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and the Czech player can keep this one close as long as he looks after his own serve.

These two players met eleven months ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who came from a set down to beat Jiri Lehecka. On that day he had a clear edge on the serve and I do think the higher Ranked player will eventually have too much for Jiri Lehecka again, but this is a high number of games to cover if the younger player is serving at the level he has been in this tournament and I will take the games with the underdog.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Jiri Lehecka + 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 34-25, + 8.26 Units (118 Units Staked, + 7% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2023 (January 23rd)

Day 7 proved to be a disappointment, but the Fourth Round action continues at the Australian Open and I am looking for a much better day all around.

Holger Rune v Andrey Rublev: With the big names of the last generation finally looking like they are ready to bow out as far as big Grand Slam titles are concerned, a match like this Fourth Round one could become common place at the business end of the biggest tournaments for years to come.

Novak Djokovic is still around and a genuine favourite to win any tournament he enters, but Rafael Nadal looks to have finally had his injuries catch up with him, while Andy Murray is still battling hard to find the consistency to get back closer to the top 20 in the World Rankings. Roger Federer officially left the scene last year, but had not played since Wimbledon 2021 anyway, and so the door has been opened for the likes of Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune.

It feels a little early to have two top ten Ranked players meeting at a Grand Slam, but the winner of this match is going to feel really confident about their chances in the bottom half of the draw. As mentioned, Djokovic is around, but he is not fully healthy and Holger Rune in particularly will be keen for that Quarter Final match at a Grand Slam having beaten the former World Number 1 in the Final of the Paris Masters at the back end of last season.

The 19 year old has made rapid progress on the ATP Tour and is already fulfilling the big hopes most had around him. An early loss in Adelaide would have stung, but Holger Rune is playing at a very comfortable level in winning all three matches at the Australian Open. His serve will only improve as he matures, but Rune is holding 86% of his games played this year and has dropped serve just four times in the tournament, while the youngster is already a very strong return player and has been able to really exert himself on this side of his tennis.

This is a big test for Holger Rune as he takes on an experienced Andrey Rublev who had a few doubts entering the Australian Open following back to back losses to open 2023. The World Number 6 is a pretty honest guy and he has allowed people to peek into his inner thoughts after those defeats, but Andrey Rublev has looked assured in the Australian Open.

He will need to serve well to win a match like this one, and Andrey Rublev does have the stronger numbers on the serve compared with Holger Rune from the small sample of 2023.

However, over the last twelve months we have seen Holger Rune have more success on the hard courts against the higher Ranked players compared with Andrey Rublev. There isn't much in the raw numbers, but Rune has the momentum of winning eight of his last nine matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, and six of those wins have been against top 10 Ranked players.

Andrey Rublev has won three of his last nine on this surface against top 20 Ranked players and that difference could be key on the day.

These two players also met in Paris and it was Holger Rune who came away with a straight sets win, although it was a closely fought match, much like this one should be.

The numbers were very, very close that day, but it was Holger Rune who played the biggest points the most efficiently and I do think that will give him a slight mental edge in this big Fourth Round match. The layers don't see much between them and I would not be surprised if all five sets and a Super Tie-Breaker were needed, but I do narrowly lean to the younger player and the momentum he has built on the Tour over the last four months to come away with a place in the Quarter Final.

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Neither of these players have won a Grand Slam title before, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic have been close before and so a lack of experience of winning Majors is not going to be an excuse for them this week. The top two Seeds in the women's draw are out before the Quarter Final Round and the form of both Sabalenka and Bencic means the winner is likely going to be right up front with the favourites to win the title next Saturday.

That does put some pressure on the match, even if the they have won fifteen matches combined in 2023 with just one loss that Belinda Bencic suffered to Iga Swiatek in a warm up event. That has not dented her belief though and Bencic has run through the first three Rounds with very little threat against her, although the Swiss star will know full well that the level goes up significantly in the Fourth Round.

None of the opponents beaten by Belinda Bencic have been Ranked inside the top 60 this week and that is something that has to be considered. However, I don't think Bencic is undercooked having won a title last week where she beat two top 10 Ranked players in Adelaide and over the last twelve months this has been a player that has played well in the top 20 match ups on the hard courts.

Her numbers and record is superior to the one that Aryna Sabalenka possesses against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, but the former World Number 2 looks to be trending in the right direction. She has won all eight matches played in 2023 and this after reaching the Final of the end of year WTA Finals in November, while Aryna Sabalenka is yet to drop a set this season.

Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has made light work of her opponents in Melbourne, although she will have the confidence of saying two of those wins have occurred against top 51 Ranked players. It means she has been dismissing a higher class of opponent and I think that will give Aryna Sabalenka the edge in this match.

Both of these players will feel they have room for improvement on the return of serve overall, but they are playing well on this side of their tennis and both have solid serves that can offer up cheap points.

My feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka possesses the bigger weapon on the serve and a few more 'easier' points could make all the difference in what should be a close, competitive match. They have split two previous matches, both on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka has looked the stronger player in both of those and I think she will find a way to put herself in a position to win and cover on Day 8 at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

This has the potential to be the match of the day and I would be surprised if we did not see some swings in momentum.

Ultimately I think the 'bigger' Aryna Sabalenka games makes the difference and she can move through to another Grand Slam Quarter Final at the expense of Belinda Bencic.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ben Shelton @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 31-22, + 9.16 Units (106 Units Staked, + 8.64% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2023 (January 22nd)

We are into the second week at the Australian Open and the Third Round has proved to be very productive for the Tennis Picks.

A strong showing on Day 6 has put the Tennis Picks in a strong position to open 2023 and I am looking to keep the momentum going at the start of the Fourth Round.

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 sets v Yoshihito Nishioka: A place in the Quarter Finals of the tournament is on the line when Yoshihito Nishioka and Karen Khachanov meet on Day 7 at the Australian Open and this could be a pretty good match. The latter is more experienced at dealing with the emotions of playing in the second week of a Grand Slam, but Yoshihito Nishioka has been playing really well this week and holds a win over Karen Khachanov from their meeting in Washington last August.

The higher Ranked player will point to the comfortable win over Nishioka at this tournament, but that was a match played four years ago in the Second Round and the Japanese player is improve since then.

Regardless of that improvement, the numbers have stayed pretty steady on the hard courts and I do think he is going to have to raise his level in this match. Wins over three players that are not Ranked above Number 65 in the World means Yoshihito Nishioka may not be as battle tested as Karen Khachanov who upset Frances Tiafoe in four sets in the Third Round.

He is another steady player on the Tour, but Karen Khachanov has arguably underachieved on the hard courts considering the obvious talent he has. The serve is a huge weapon for him, but Karen Khachanov has improvement to make on the return of serve if he is going to push up the World Rankings and return to the top ten.

You have to believe Karen Khachanov is going to have better returning numbers in this match compared with his last two when he was winning around 37% of points played on the opponent's serve. That is a mark that is about where Khachanov operates each season, but Yoshihito Nishioka is not likely to blow anyone off the court behind his serve and that will be encouraging for the higher Ranked player.

Yoshihito Nishioka has a return of serve that can be very productive and he did put Karen Khachanov under pressure in the win when they met in Washington. However, it is Khachanov who has tended to find the breaks of serve when the opportunities are presented to him and I think he will be able to win this Fourth Round match in three or four sets.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are out, while Novak Djokovic is still having hamstring troubles so there may be an opportunity for a new Grand Slam winner at the end of this Australian Open.

The winner of this Fourth Round match is certainly going to feel they are perhaps deserving of being installed as the favourite to win the event and both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner have opened up 2023 in very strong form. Their performances in Melbourne have been really strong too, although Sinner did need to fight back from two sets down to see off Marton Fucsovics in the Third Round.

Even though he was pushed, Jannik Sinner eased through the final three sets that day and he has played really well. However, Stefanos Tsitsipas is unbeaten in 2023 and that will only give him more confidence, especially in the surroundings in Melbourne where a big Greek community have been very happy to come out and support Tsitsipas.

The serve is the big shot for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he will have to serve well in order to keep on top of Jannik Sinner.

That has been the case between these players in the past with Stefanos Tsitsipas winning four of the five professional matches, including the last three in a row. That includes a straight sets win over Jannik Sinner here at the Australian Open twelve months ago and Stefanos Tsitsipas has not dropped a set in any of the four victories over this opponent.

It should be noted that the majority of those matches have been played on the clay courts, a surface that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been very comfortable on. The one win on a hard court was here at the Australian Open and it was a day in which Tsitsipas was able to dominate and dictate behind the serve and he can do that in this Fourth Round match, despite the obvious improvement made by Jannik Sinner over the last year.

In saying that, Jannik Sinner does not have a top ten win on the hard courts in that time, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is 4-5 (three losses to Novak Djokovic).

I have said before that Stefanos Tsitsipas can be tough to trust in big matches with a return game that has plenty of room for improvement, but the Sinner serve can be vulnerable at times. He has held just 65% of his service games against top ten players in the last twelve months and that mark is only improved to 71% in his career against the elite on the ATP Tour.

This is going to be a really good match, but I think Stefanos Tsitsipas does enough to win the match and can cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 30-18, + 15.56 Units (96 Units Staked, + 16.21% Yield)

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 21-22)

It has been one of those weeks where life takes over and that means this thread is simply focusing on NFL Picks from the four Divisional Round games in the PlayOffs.

I think it could be a favourites weekend as you will be able to read below.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: One of the biggest PlayOff comebacks has helped the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) reach the Divisional Round of the post-season. Backing that up will be the challenge for Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the team after the young Quarter Back recovered from a horrendous start against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Super Wild Card game last week.

It was Trevor Lawrence who led the recovery, but the four Interceptions thrown in the first half left the Jaguars chasing the game against the Chargers.

Doing that against the Number 1 Seed in the AFC would be a much taller mountain to climb for the Jacksonville Jaguars as they prepare to visit the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), a team who have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Everyone knows how strong Andy Reid has been as a Head Coach with time to set his team up for a game and the Kansas City Chiefs are very experienced in the PlayOffs.

This should mean any lead is managed better than the Los Angeles Chargers managed in the Super Wild Card Round and the Kansas City Chiefs piled up some huge numbers in a double digit win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season.

They have nor provided much bulletin board material despite the big win over the Jaguars and Patrick Mahomes believes he is facing a much stronger team than the one he carved up before. However, I do think Mahomes is playing at a strong level and his Offensive unit have plenty of weapons even though they moved Tyreek Hill in the last off-season.

Some of the explosiveness has gone, but there are still some fast Receiving options here, while Travis Kelce could have a really strong game. The Chiefs are capable of establishing the run, but Head Coach Andy Reid seems to get board of that game plan and that should mean another gram watching Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball around the field.

It certainly helps that Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving around in the pocket to buy himself time when pressure has come, while the Offensive Line have also played really well. I think we will see the Quarter Back finding his skill players down the field and the spread is very going to come down to whether the Jaguars can pick themselves from an emotional win and go again.

This is never easy, especially not against a rested Number 1 Seed, but I do think Trevor Lawrence will have some success.

The Quarter Back could get some support from Travis Etienne running the ball and that will open things up for Lawrence as he looks to secure another upset in the PlayOffs. Establishing the run will also slow down the Kansas City pass rush and offer Trevor Lawrence the chance to use play-action to get into a position to take his shots down the field.

You have to credit how both of these Defensive units have played down the stretch, but I do think Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can pull away for another big PlayOff win.

They piled up huge numbers against the Jaguars in the regular season and won by double digits despite giving the ball away three times and also allowing Jacksonville to secure an onside kick.

Those extra possessions did not help the Jaguars stay with the Chiefs and I think a cleaner effort from Kansas City should put them in a position to avoid any backdoor cover.

I don't think Trevor Lawrence will begin this game as poorly as he did the Super Wild Card Round game, and I do think the Jaguars are fun to watch on this side of the ball. The Kansas City Chiefs have not really been a team that have been successful covering the spreads in each passing week, but they look capable of finding the plays to do that here.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two wins in the regular season has given the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) the mental edge over their NFC East rivals the New York Giants (10-7-1). Beating any team three times in a single season is tough, but the rested Number 1 Seed in the NFC are the clear favourites to beat this rival once again.

The two week break for the Philadelphia Eagles looks to have come at a good time and they look so much healthier than they did before Week 18. Jalen Hurts is the obvious name when it comes to players with improved health, but the return of Lane Johnson is huge for the Offensive Line and I do think the Eagles will come with a real statement to make.

They will have to respect the New York Giants who deservedly upset the Minnesota Vikings in the Super Wild Card Round, although both of those teams are not as good as hyped up. New York are playing well, but this is a significant step up in level of competition and they were pretty well beaten when hosting the Eagles in the regular season.

You cannot read too much into the Week 18 game as the Giants were resting starters and the Eagles looked to take their foot off the gas when holding a big lead.

With the team looking strong, Philadelphia should be able to move the ball against the Giants Defensive unit, despite the improvement made by the latter. Having Jalen Hurts back at Quarter Back makes the rushing attack that much more effective for the Eagles and I do think they will be able to keep the team in third and manageable spots throughout this game.

Receivers like AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith give Jalen Hurts tremendous players to throw to and Dallas Goedert is another threat- with the Quarter Back capable of running out of the RPO, the Eagles should have the balance to keep the chains moving and having the Giants second guessing what to expect.

That puts all the pressure on the Offensive unit to try and keep the New York Giants competitive and Daniel Jones is coming off an appearance that is likely going to make him a very rich player in the years ahead. He does have a healthy Saquon Barkley behind him, but there is no doubt that the Giants are facing a much more confident Defensive team than the one they beat in Minnesota.

Perhaps New York will try to run the ball through Jones and Barkley, but this Eagles Defensive Line has been refortified and I think they will want to test the Quarter Back and his makeshift Receivers and see if they can keep the Giants in this Divisional Round game.

Once again the Giants cannot expect Daniel Jones to have the passing lanes he had last week against the Minnesota Vikings and throwing against this Philadelphia Secondary from obvious passing positions or situations is very difficult. The Eagles produce a fierce pass rush and they have some top players in the Defensive Backs positions to back up the rushers up front by locking down the Receivers facing up against them.

Daniel Jones will make some plays, but the Eagles should have a bit too much overall on both sides of the ball and they can pull away for a win and a cover.

I have to acknowledge how well the Giants have played in Philadelphia in recent years and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six visits. They could easily secure the backdoor cover if the Eagles begin playing prevent Defense late in the game, but I like the Number 1 Seed to make a statement and win this one by double digits.

The Eagles are rested and looking healthy as they bid for a Super Bowl run and I think they can open their post-season with a solid win in the Divisional Round before hosting the NFC Championship Game next week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This is officially going to be the game most remember for the first between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen after the really emotional way the regular season game had to be curtailed. Damar Hamlin is on the long road to recovery after suffering on the field late in the season, but the Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) and Buffalo Bills (14-3) will be focusing on trying to reach the AFC Championship Game having won tighter than expected home games in the Super Wild Card Round last week.

This time the teams will be meeting Buffalo where snow could potentially be a factor on Sunday. Conditions are cold as expected, but it should not be too windy and I think both Quarter Backs will be confident that the passing game will be able to operate as they would like.

As we have come to expect in the post-season, the running attack is the key for any team and I think that is particularly important for both teams in what should be the best game of the weekend.

Opponents have tended to allow the Bills running lanes in a bid to quieten down the passing attack over the course of the season, but that has not really worked that effectively. Establishing the run opens things up for the pass and Josh Allen is a Quarter Back who is happy to take what the Defensive schemes give him and he is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly, or pick up First Downs with his legs.

The Bills should be able to run the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are a middling run Defense, and they have players capable of breaking a big play or two on the ground. This should make things a little more comfortable for Josh Allen, especially as the Quarter Back has been a little more generous with his throws of late with key Interceptions leaving points on the board.

Josh Allen will also have a little more time in the pocket if his team are in third and manageable and that is also really important considering some of the pass protection breakdowns we have seen in recent games. Scrambling away from pressure will help, but third and manageable opens up the passing options and the Buffalo Bills should be able to move the ball through the air against this Cincinnati Secondary, especially with the skill players Buffalo have.

I expect Buffalo to have Offensive successes, but it may be a little more difficult for Joe Burrow and company. In the limited time on the field in their regular season game, Burrow and the Bengals were moving the ball pretty well, but injuries to the Offensive Line have decimated this unit and that is very difficult to overcome, regardless of how good your Quarter Back and skill players may be.

Once again the Bengals are going to be facing a Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run and forced teams to try and beat them through the air. It is unlikely that either Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine are able to have a lot of joy pounding the rock behind this makeshift Offensive Line and that could make things very dangerous for the Bengals.

This is also where the injuries on the Offensive Line means the depth of the Bengals is tested and being in third and long and hoping the pass protection holds up is going to be a huge challenge for Joe Burrow and the team. Von Miller may not be around, but the Bills still generate pressure up front and they have enough players on the Defensive Line that will feel they can break into the backfield past the second string Offensive Line players in front of them and put Joe Burrow under immense pressure.

An increasingly healthy Secondary is also capable of locking down Receivers with the pass rush getting to the Quarter Back and I think this could be the end of the line for Cincinnati.

No one will doubt this is a big line considering what we have seen from Joe Burrow in his time with LSU and Cincinnati, but the Offensive Line looks broken and that makes it very hard to imagine the Bengals having any consistent success. They don't have the same Offensive balance as the Buffalo Bills are likely to have and I think the home team will be able to win this by around a Touchdown mark.

The Bills have not been a very good home team to back of late, but the sharp money looks to be behind them and I will back Buffalo to reach the AFC Championship Game, which will either be hosted by the Bills or played on a neutral field if Kansas City win on Saturday.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: For the first time in the NFL PlayOffs, we will have had a Monday Night Football game in Super Wild Card Round- the question we all have to find out the answer to is how will a team react to what is ultimately a short week between PlayOff games?

The Dallas Cowboys (13-5) are the team facing that situation as they head to the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) for this Divisional Round game on Sunday afternoon. Last season it was the 49ers who upset Dallas as the road underdog, but this time they are favoured at home and San Francisco benefit from having two days more preparation time than the Cowboys.

A win at Tampa Bay was impressive, but the Buccaneers have not performed well throughout the 2022 season and this is a significantly tougher test for the Dallas Cowboys. Now they have to face a 49ers team coming in off a blow out and one that has won eleven in a row since a Week 7 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Brock Purdy has come in and managed the Offensive unit well enough, although all the credit has to be given to Head Coach Kyle Shanahan who has made sure his young Quarter Back is being put in a very strong position on the field. The 49ers are not asking their rookie to throw into tight windows, but simply getting the ball out of Brock Purdy's hands as quickly as possibly and making sure the skill players are in space to pick up plenty of yards after the catch.

This is going to be the toughest Defensive unit that Brock Purdy has seen in his short time in the starting role at Quarter Back, but I do think the 49ers match up pretty well with the Cowboys overall. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell have been very good at establishing the run behind this strong San Francisco Offensive Line and I expect those two Running Backs to get plenty of touches in this one.

Out of the two, Christian McCaffrey also provides a threat leaking out of the backfield, while Deebo Samuel is another the 49ers will use to carry the ball as they use a lot of misdirection to keep Defensive Lines guessing.

Moving the ball this way should make it easier for Brock Purdy to get the ball out to his Wide Receivers and I do think the San Francisco 49ers will find a way to get things moving against a strong Dallas Defensive unit.

There should also be a confidence in the Dallas Offensive unit after Dak Prescott's huge game in Tampa Bay- the Quarter Back was rarely bothered after the first couple of series and Prescott will be looking to pick up from where he left off.

However, Dak Prescott and the passing game is really sparked by the ability of the Cowboys to run the ball and this is going to be the pressing concern for Dallas on Sunday. The Buccaneers Defensive Line is one that is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but there aren't many better than the 49ers and I do think they can find a way to clamp down on Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard.

The latter is likely to be important as a safety blanket in the passing game, but Dak Prescott playing behind the chains is going to be a tough challenge for a Quarter Back who has been guilty of plenty of turnovers before the win over Tampa Bay in the Super Wild Card Round.

This will mean the Cowboys Offensive Line is going to be dealing with the huge amount of pressure that San Francisco can get up front, but Prescott has to be encouraged by one or two holes that have been evident in the 49ers Secondary. The problem is trying to exploit those from third and long situations and I think the game plan run by Dallas is going to make it difficult for them to have any consistent success and especially not on a short week.

Turnovers are going to be a huge part of any NFL game, but those are magnified in the PlayOffs and I do think Dak Prescott is likely to make more mistakes than Brock Purdy. The 49ers have been well coached and will put their Quarter Back in a stronger position overall and this should make the difference in the big game on Sunday.

San Francisco are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen home games, while the Dallas Cowboys are just 4-9 against the spread when playing on Sunday following a Monday Night Football outing.

Despite the win over Tampa Bay, I cannot ignore the fact that Dallas have not been as strong on the road and in outdoor conditions and I think it will lead to a late drive that sees San Francisco win and cover this line.

The Cowboys did beat San Francisco on the road when they last met in a game hosted by the 49ers in 2017, but that's not really going to be relevant to the players on Divisional Round Weekend in 2023.

A narrow win for the 49ers over Dallas last season in the PlayOffs is a game that could be on the mind of those involved on Sunday and I think a narrow San Francisco win and cover is most likely, possibly with a late Dak Prescott Interception making the difference on the day.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)