Upsets continue to be seen throughout both draws, but that should make for an exciting end to the opening Grand Slam of the season with a number of players 'expecting' to win the title.
As we move further into the draw, the quality of the matches should also continue to improve.
The Tennis Picks from Day 5 were largely successful and once again the numbers are moving in a positive direction.
There is still a lot of work to do to have a winning event, but I am happy with the way the opening week has gone as long as I can round off with another productive day on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There is an obvious concern with the Novak Djokovic hamstring issue that was seen in the Second Round and something that had been a problem heading into the Australian Open, but the nine time Champion in Melbourne has remained in the tournament. That is more than some of the other players around him that have also been affected by injury problems and Novak Djokovic will have had a day of rest to try and manage his condition.
The draw is only going to get tougher from here on out and Novak Djokovic will next be faced by Grigor Dimitrov.
The veteran of the Tour has opened 2023 playing in superb form and that includes Grigor Dimitrov taking Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets at the United Cup earlier in the month. He has completely overrun the two opponents played at Melbourne Park, although Dimitrov will know full well of the challenge in front of him having lost nine of ten matches played against Novak Djokovic, including all six played on the hard courts.
Grigor Dimitrov has found a way to be competitive at times and that is not a surprise considering the talent he has, but Novak Djokovic has dominated the numbers overall and only the hamstring complaint will potentially hold back the former World Number 1.
Any hopes of an upset may depend on how well Grigor Dimitrov serves- he has only faced a single Break Point in the tournament and has yet to drop serve, which has contributed in freeing up the arm when it comes to the return. Serving as well as that against Novak Djokovic is a huge challenge for any player considering the Serb is arguably the best return player of all time, and in their head to head matches it has been the return that has put Dimitrov under immense pressure.
Like his opponent, Novak Djokovic has yet to drop serve this week too and he won the tournament in Adelaide while losing his serve just three times. This is a completely underrated part of the Djokovic game and I think he will put himself in a position to secure a good looking win as long as his hamstring holds up.
I think he will manage it well enough to do that and Novak Djokovic has held 88% of his service games played against Grigor Dimitrov on a hard court compared with the 69% mark for the Bulgarian.
Over the last twelve months, Grigor Dimitrov has found the top 10 Ranked players too hot to handle on the hard courts and his numbers have reflected that having produced a 1-4 record against those opponents on this surface. He has suffered some pretty one-sided defeats in that time and his return has not been good enough to put pressure on the best players on the Tour and I think something similar will occur in this Third Round match.
Novak Djokovic's fans will be concerned with his injury and how he will manage it, but he has shown in Australia before that he has almost superhuman powers of recovery and mental strength to overcome physical challenges and still win this Grand Slam title. I think he takes another step towards a tenth Grand Slam title in Melbourne with a strong win against a talented opponent who has not really reached the level many would have predicted for him.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Andy Murray: I am 0-2 on Andy Murray matches this week, although I am still not sure how he managed to fight back from two sets down and beat Thanasi Kokkinakis in the Second Round. That match lasted almost six hours and finished at a ridiculous time in the early hours of Friday morning and I simply do not know how Murray will be ready to compete in the Third Round.
One match alone lasting that length of time would be hard enough to deal with, but 35 year old Andy Murray with a metal hip needed almost five hours to win his First Round match. Some players won't have spent almost eleven hours on the court through the first week and I think it is a mammoth challenge for Andy Murray to prepare physically and emotionally for this match.
He is playing a veteran who also needed to fight back from two sets down in the Second Round, but Roberto Bautista Agut managed to turn things in his favour and win that match in under three hours. The win over a Qualifier has continued the Spaniard's strong start to 2023 and Roberto Bautista Agut remains a consistent threat, which is going to test Andy Murray's resolve to the fullest.
While he could play aggressive tennis against Kokkinakis and Matteo Berrettini, rallies could be much longer and gruelling against someone like Roberto Bautista Agut and I think that is going to be too much for Andy Murray to handle.
These two actually met here in Melbourne in 2019 in the First Round just days after Andy Murray hinted at retirement and it was Roberto Bautista Agut who came through in five sets in a match that lasted over four hours. The Spaniard blew a two set lead that day before rallying in the Fifth Set, but Roberto Bautista Agut has dominated the two matches they have played against one another since then and should have really won that match in Australia in 2019 in much more straight-forward fashion.
In the three matches beginning with the Australian Open meeting in 2019, Roberto Bautista Agut has won 95% of the service games played against Andy Murray compared with 65% for the British player. He beat Murray in straight sets on an indoor court in Basel a little over three months ago and I do think the consistency and the willingness to spend as long as he needs on the court will make this a step too far for Andy Murray.
This is a big handicap mark for Roberto Bautista Agut to cover and I would not have been touching it at this line if Andy Murray had not had other factors going against him. He looked shattered at the end of the Second Round match and I am not sure there is much left in the tank to push the World Number 25 for long enough to stay with him.
Even the additional time of being placed on the Night Session may not be enough recovery time for Andy Murray and I will look for Roberto Bautista Agut to end his run in Melbourne for the second time in five years.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
JJ Wolf - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 22-16, + 5.56 Units (76 Units Staked, + 7.32% Yield)
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