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Thursday 19 January 2023

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2023 (January 20th)

A couple of frustrating moments over the last couple of days have meant being unable to back up the First Round successes with the same in the Second Round.

Instead it was a much tougher couple of days thanks to two matches both seeing a pivotal third set move against the selections made.

At one point it looked like being a solid enough Day 4, but things twisted late and it has been back to back disappointing days for the Tennis Picks.


Day 5 will move into the Third Round action and that should mean better quality of matches.

The best two matches of the tournament so far have both involved Andy Murray, although the Australian Open organisers are going to have to do something with the way they operate the Night Session going forward.

Andy Murray and Thanasi Kokkinakis deserved so much better than having to compete past 3:30am and I am not sure how the organisers expect players to recover and head out onto the court on Day 6 with a realistic hope of winning matches.

Once again it has led to some suggesting best of five set matches should be scrapped, but I don't buy into that and I actually think they would be better off either starting the 'Night' session around two hours earlier or leaving only one match to be scheduled for the time slot rather than two that we have right now.

Either way there will be questions for the organisers and those in Paris and New York City to answer going forward.


Most of the big names are through to the Third Round, although both draws have lost big players too. Rafael Nadal went out on Wednesday and both Casper Ruud and Ons Jabeur, Grand Slam Finalists in 2022, were beaten in their own Second Round matches played on Thursday.

With Novak Djokovic struggling to stay on top of his hamstring complaint and Iga Swiatek also with some fitness doubts around her, I do think both Singles titles are there for the taking for any of the players who have been close, but not quite gotten over the line before.

Picking a winner is still tough- Daniil Medvedev has impressed in the men's and Aryna Sabalenka looks the danger in the women's draw- but at the moment it is still difficult to oppose Djokovic and Swiatek.


Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Many have already spoken about the potential of Sebastian Korda and 2023 has started well enough to believe this may be the breakthrough year for the young American. At 22 years old, Sebastian Korda is approaching his career best World Ranking and I think he has to be focusing on cracking the top 20 as a minimum this year, while perhaps looking for a strong run or two at the major tournaments that are played on the Tour.

He reached the Final in Adelaide in the build up to the first Grand Slam of the season and Sebastian Korda managed to push Novak Djokovic to three sets, although he did come up short.

After reaching the second week at both the French Open and Wimbledon before, Sebastian Korda is looking to do the same at a Grand Slam played on the hard courts for the first time. He has matched his run to the Third Round from last year, but Korda will also be well aware that he has to be better than he has produced in the Australian Open if he is going to upset the back to back Runner Up at this tournament.

Daniil Medvedev has looked very comfortable back on the courts at Melbourne Park, but he is a smart player and will know that the players beaten in the first two Rounds are not of the level that Sebastian Korda can bring to the court. Like his opponent, Daniil Medvedev's run in Adelaide was ended by Novak Djokovic, this time in the Semi Final, but he has long been one of the top hard court players on the Tour and I do think the World Number 8 is going to come out on top of this match.

Out of the two players, it feels like the Daniil Medvedev serve is a little more reliable, while he will feel he is one of the top return players on the Tour anyway. That pressure is likely to be exerted on the Sebastian Korda game and the younger player is going to have to play the big points really well to stay with Medvedev in this Third Round match.

Neither of the players has served as well they would have liked at the tournament and that may have something to do with the tennis balls being used, which have been criticised by many of the players. They have contributed to making this feel like slower conditions than players would expect of the hard courts, but I do think it probably suits Daniil Medvedev a little more with his ability to keep the ball in the court.

Sebastian Korda has already faced thirty Break Points in this tournament compared with thirteen for Daniil Medvedev, while the latter has earned significantly more chances to Break even considering he has played two fewer sets.

These two met in Paris a little over twelve months ago and it was Daniil Medvedev's returning that made a big difference in the outcome of that match. I expect the same to happen here in the Third Round and Daniil Medvedev can cover what is a very big line at this stage of the tournament.


Cameron Norrie - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: He may not have shown it, but Cameron Norrie has to have been disappointed to have failed to win the title in Auckland when losing to Richard Gasquet in the Final.

Instead he has talked up the positives of the run and how it has prepared him for the Australian Open and the British Number 1 is a favourite to reach the second week in Melbourne for the first time in his career. The World Number 12 has a pretty unremarkable Grand Slam record for someone in his position and that just seems to underline the fact that Cameron Norrie is very good when it comes to beating those players he should do.

It means having a strong record below the Grand Slam level and Cameron Norrie has largely dominated players from outside the top 20 of the World Rankings as he has compiled a 32-7 record on the hard courts against those opponents in a twelve month period.

His two victories so far this week have come against players Ranked Number 143 and 55, although Cameron Norrie made harder work of the Second Round match than it perhaps should have been. That is a worry for Norrie as the competition gets harder with his next opponent having already beaten one Seed in the tournament.

Jiri Lehecka has only just turned 21 years old and so is learning his craft on the Tour and he has only dropped a single set on his way into the Third Round. The First Round win over Borna Coric has opened up this section of the draw, but Jiri Lehecka will know how tough the challenge in front of him could be having suffered both losses in 2023 to players Ranked inside the top 12, including once against Cameron Norrie.

The serve can be a big weapon for the Czech player when he is at his best, but he has two losses on the resume against Cameron Norrie and both on a hard court. You have to credit Jiri Lehecka for taking a set in both matches, but he has been clearly second best in those matches judging by the numbers.

In those two previous matches, Cameron Norrie has created a lot more break points in both, including when they met in Auckland earlier this month. I have to credit Jiri Lehecka for playing the big points as well as he has against Cameron Norrie, but the British player is the superior player at this stage of their careers and I think that will show up here.

Jiri Lehecka does have a couple of top 20 wins on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but one of those was against Alexander Zverev earlier this month, a player who has only just returned to the Tour following a major injury last June.

As long as Cameron Norrie doesn't lose his focus or feel the nerves about reaching the second week at a Slam, I think he should have enough to win well.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 16-13, + 0.38 Units (58 Units Staked, + > 1% Yield)

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