It felt like she was the best player in the tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka showed extreme mental strength to win her first Grand Slam title from a set behind against the Wimbledon Champion Elena Rybakina.
This could really be the beginning of a dominant spell for Sabalenka, who will be considered amongst the favourites at Wimbledon and the US Open, although the clay courts will provide the next Grand Slam challenge. Before then, Aryna Sabalenka will be looking to put up some significant Ranking points in the tournaments to be played in February and March and to build on the momentum she has created for herself this month.
Elena Rybakina will also be able to bounce back from this defeat- she is now officially into the top 10 of the World Rankings and has a game that will be dangerous on the faster surfaces in the second half of the season.
The Pick from the women's Final returned another winner to cement what has been a strong tournament and there is just one more match to be played in Melbourne in 2023.
It should be a good one as the men take centre stage on the Rod Laver Arena.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Carlos Alcaraz, the World Number 1, has been a big miss at the tournament, but the reality of the ATP Tour is that Novak Djokovic is still considered the best player in the world even when the Rankings have not reflected that over the last twelve months. Not being able to play in two of the four Grand Slam events clearly impacted the Ranking Points, while Novak Djokovic won the Wimbledon title where the Points had been removed.
It is fitting that his return to Melbourne has Novak Djokovic once again reaching the Final at the Australian Open, where he has not been beaten since 2018, and winning a tenth Slam here will mean the Serb is once again Number 1 in the World.
However, Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing in his second Grand Slam Final this week having finally gotten through the Semi Final Round at the Australian Open. He has been beaten three times in the Semi Final at Melbourne Park previously, but Stefanos Tsitsipas overcame a couple of nervy moments in his four set win over Karen Khachanov on Friday and will feel plenty confident about where his tennis is as he looks for a maiden Grand Slam title.
And like Novak Djokovic, winning the title here will mean Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the new World Number 1 on Monday morning.
Stefanos Tsitsipas will know the kind of challenge that is in front of him- in his previous Grand Slam Final at the French Open, the Greek player led Novak Djokovic 2-0 in sets before losing in five sets and this is the court that Djokovic has been at his most dominant.
Despite carrying a hamstring issue, Novak Djokovic has been incredibly good this week and I think it is going to take something special to beat him on his return to Melbourne. While he has put together stronger tournaments at the Australian Open in terms of pure numbers, this has still been one of his best two weeks at Melbourne Park and Novak Djokovic has been incredibly strong behind both serve and return.
The test for Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be how well he can serve- he has held 91% of his service games at the tournament, but I cannot shake off the performance against Jannik Sinner when the Italian missed over twenty Break Point chances in an eventual defeat.
Novak Djokovic is playing at a level where he is not going to be wasteful at the big moments and he broke Tommy Paul seven times in the Semi Final, which means every opponent has been broken at least five times through the tournament. The nine time Champion will have been a little disappointed with one or two loose service games, but Novak Djokovic has a massive edge when it comes to returning numbers between himself and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
This has been a fact that has also been evident in their head to head matches, which have been dominated by Novak Djokovic since losing two of the first three between these players. Since then, Novak Djokovic has won nine straight matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and has beaten him three times on the hard courts since early October 2022.
The former World Number 1 has held 88% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 76% mark in their head to head contests, while that edge has been even clearer if you only consider the matches played against one another over the last twelve months. The Tsitsipas serve is one that tends to get a few more easier points out of Novak Djokovic than most and he has won 68% of service points played against Djokovic in their three hard court matches in 2022, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has held 85% of service games played compared with 94% for his opponent.
Some will suggest that is not a massive difference in the percentages, but tennis really is a game of inches and it is a significant number. Novak Djokovic has also been playing at a clearly superior level to most in this tournament and I think he will be very difficult to beat as long as the body can hold up.
It would not be a massive surprise if Stefanos Tsitsipas took a set, but I think Novak Djokovic is going to exert more consistent pressure on the return. If the underdog can continue to produce a 66% first serve percentage, I do think he could push Djokovic, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may eventually be worn down by the mental and physical pressure of the long-time dominant Champion of this tournament and it could end up being another strong win for the Serb.
Novak Djokovic might 'only' be 12-6 in hard court Grand Slam Finals, but he is 9-0 in Australia compared with 3-6 in the United States.
His numbers have, unsurprisingly, been really strong in the Australian Open Final throughout his career and Novak Djokovic has won three of the last four Finals played here without dropping a set.
I can imagine the first set to be competitive, but Novak Djokovic should be able to get on top with his superior return play and I believe he can cover what is another big handicap mark, especially considering the quality of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both are unbeaten in 2023, but Tsitsipas has had one or two close calls and Novak Djokovic's level looks like it could be too much to deal with over three or four hours.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 44-30, + 15.68 Units (144 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)
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